Yeah, it's Christmas and all, and as one of the Lord's I love this holiday (and of course I always have, including well before my salvation).
But it's something even more wonderful to me and this blog....... bowl season.
It's actually interesting, because I really don't get as worked up over the bowls themselves as you might expect. I probably watch 3 or 4 a year casually and commonly won't even make note of the results.
But that's besides the point.
You see, I'm NOT into the BCS just because I love the bowls. I think their tradition is awesome, and somehow they just give this essence to college football that is unmatchable. But just as much, it's because college football forces each game to receive an unparalleled interest.
In a playoff, we would just avoid the thought of a boring matchup like maybe Kansas and Virginia Tech, and instead make a bracket prediction or think ahead to possible second round matchups. And non-playoff bowls would be reduced to the interest level of the early rounds of the NIT... nil.
As I said, many years I don't have that much excitement over the actual bowls... though just having them around sets the atmosphere for this time of year. Perhaps, though, it's because I've followed the entirety of college football more closely on a week-to-week basis than I have in a while that makes me extremely excited this year.
It's amazing how many great games there are down in the depths.
I should point out, I am 100% satisfied with the national championship game. While I ranked LSU behind Oklahoma and Georgia the prior week, deep down I definitely believed LSU to be the better team.... and indeed the best, as I think they'll win as most people do, though I expect Ohio State to put up more of a dog fight than last year.
I'm also quite happy with the results for other teams. I was pleasantly surprised when the name West Virginia was revealed, as I was sure Oklahoma would play Kansas or Hawaii. Probably the BCS game of the year. Many complain that's why the BCS is messed up. Says you. There are some more interesting tournament games in each round, even among equally seeded teams. Some games are just more interesting. What's wrong with that? Of course Rich Rodriguez leaving will dull the game a little, but I'll live.
Hawaii-Georgia is a very interesting little game. Between a team that was on the National Championship bubble and the little engine that could. I don't think Hawaii will hang with Georgia. But what if they could?
VT-Kansas, as mentioned, is dull. VT is getting way too much love. They haven't done anything of note all year. They won the ACC. The pugly ACC. Kansas, in two weeks went from my favorite team ever, to the biggest pretender in a long time. Get dismantled by Missouri who then gets dissected by Oklahoma, and that happens.
Still they deserved to play 100x more than Missouri. If you can't beat Oklahoma twice, too bad.
The only fair option would be to axe the 2 teams per conference rule...... but they don't want to to do that..... which is fine by me, honestly. I can definitely see the merits of the rule. It keeps the politics from taking over the entire deal. It keeps the money more even, while still allowing a conference performing more consistently at a supreme level to take home some additional reward. It may leave a third deserving conference team out..... but too bad! Again: if you get it done on the field, you get what you deserve. If not, sometimes you'll win out, sometimes you won't, deal with it. Same deal as the title game. If you dominate the entire year, you will be playing the last game of the season.
At the same time, many are disgusted by the Rose Bowl. It does admittedly appear one sided, and USC should win easily. But Illinois beat OSU, what makes anyone think that if Illinois doesn't win, OSU could have? Maybe that's really the deal..... the Big 10 is the shame of college football. No one thinks they are even an ounce of good.
And I'll admit, they've earned the rep fair and square. Ohio State last January. Michigan. And somewhat even more stark, Minnesota's pure awfulness. The Big 10's OOC record is pretty poor..... except when beating up on the MAC... which only shows the 2007 MAC is far-and-away the WORST conference in college football in a few years.
Of course the bigger complaints by those in the know is that Arizona State didn't a BCS bowl berth... and the blame lies squarely on the format of the Rose Bowl leading Illinois to get in.
Fair enough, Arizona State almost certainly had the better rap sheet.
And the Rose Bowl indeed isn't that interesting this year (yet. I bet I will warm to it quickly in about 10 days!).
It brings up a reminder of my slight dislike of one aspect of bowls...... the setup conference matchups in every single bowl, particularly when certain conferences basically never meet (for instance the Big 12 and ACC... which at most meet once a year (this year Virginia and Texas Tech). More sadly, the second tier bowls are always the same few teams, and take away ever having, say, a top Big 10 team playing a top Big East team, save in the BCS.
But all the same, that's what the bowls are, isn't it? A little quirky. And that's why they are fun. I feel like Michigan and Florida have played 50 times in the Citrus Bowl (even when this is only like the second meeting), and it appears to be a very lopsided game. But it's fun!
Stick with me for a second.
Like I said before, the fact we focus on a game like this is really the whole foundation to what makes college football exciting.
In a playoff, we might well have the same game. But it'd be over before we even thought about it. And it'd be played the same weekend as a long list of other games. The bowl season allows us to pay a bit of extra attention to teams that normally wouldn't see it. Teams that have had solid years, many of them, but fallen short. It gives teams time in the spotlight. It's kind of like trotting the teams out slowly through a beauty pageant line. Two at a time. And we get the added bonus of seeing one more time whether our opinions of them are fair.
And again, while there are 40+ college football games each weekend, not like the visibility of the bowl system... the current system still makes each week mean so much. Every opponent is focused upon. Every week a vital game. Each week a piece to a puzzle that you have to put together perfectly to get it right. Even in a year like this year... where 20 teams probably lost a game they "couldn't afford to lose" and still ended up in the NC hunt... and the great quote Thanksgiving weekend "Arkansas has killed LSU's national title dreams"... there's still that big looming reality... you have to have one of the best two teams in the country to play for the title. You must be the creme of the crop. And so instead of each win and each loss just being some notes on a comparison chart... like in college basketball, where we have Bracketology, with key wins and losses listed along with all kinds of other stats to try and muddle through which teams are the more deserving .650 teams on the year... instead of not really knowing how each game will impact you, and a loss not really meaning too much, in college football, you know you've given up your right if you lose just one. Once you lose a game it's in fate's hands and your "body of work" doesn't mean nearly as much as what other teams do. In college basketball it's all about which big wins you have. In college football, that doesn't mean nearly as much as how many losses you have.
Back to my point: the Rose Bowl isn't perfect. None of this is perfect. I'm hearing Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Georgia fans whining "why not us". Honestly none of you deserved it nearly as much as LSU... and you gave up your right to complain when you lost that first game... then nailed it to the wall when you lost your second. The game is DEFINITELY the right game. I was of the opinion it should be LSU-OSU as conference championship Saturday wound to a close. But even if you aren't, you know it's the system we play in, everyone plays by it. It's like complaining about life not being fair because we die. And life is a pretty good system. But when all you can do is blame the system because of your team's shortcomings during the year, your arguments are empty.
A friend told me that based upon a combination of user simulations and stats, Clemson was the team picked to win a 16 team playoff bracket.
Clemson!?!
How disgusting!
People wrote off Georgia (I think VERY unfairly) out of the national title discussion because they didn't win (or play in) their conference title game (Who cares!?! We are looking for the best two teams. Why should a loss to Tennessee be 10x more damning than any other loss. LSU didn't win the West so much as Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State lost to each other and East teams enough to let LSU come on top. If Arkansas won close games against Alabama and Auburn........ then LSU would apparently suddenly be just as undeserving of a title shot? And I even hear people say Missouri deserves a BCS game more than Kansas, because at least they played in their conference title game. Well, I am totally agreed that an H2H win means much more than any other game...... but they is a limit on how much it means (Stanford won't be playing in the Rose Bowl, thankfully). Missouri got shut down two other times. They "had their chance" at top teams, and floundered. KU got one shot, and it's time they get another. There is too much emphasis placed on winning your conf title game. I know where it comes from, and I tend to agree in retrospect that Oklahoma didn't deserve in in 2003. But that's done. Had USC lost another game, there would've been no discussion. Oklahoma and LSU would have been the best two teams. All these "rules" people seem to think should streamline the decision making process to find the best team are subjective. People used the same rule (and some others) to discount Michigan from playing OSU again last year. What if UF lost to South Carolina as well? And any other contender lost another game too. There is a point where it's not a good argument anymore. So you can't use "conference winner" or "played a weak schedule" or "they had their chance to beat X team" as a doctrinal rule to how things should be done. There is limitations to how far it is taken, and different people will take it to different extremes. Just as people argue that everyone is going to have a different idea of religion and try to suggest "to each his own" (don't get me started 8-))... so too shouldn't that then be recognized in college football. There is no objectivity with all these supposed definitive rules people want to put up.)
Anyways, people wrote off Georgia for not winning the SEC... but want to put Clemson into a playoff with a fair shot at the title? Blech.
As to the Rose Bowl?
In a lot of ways, I wouldn't be too upset by a minimally invasive new playoff system that would restore the previous bowl matchups. This year's Rose is an argument FOR the bowls not against them. It's the BCS' fault that Illinois is the Big 10 representative... Ohio State won the conference by 2 games. If anything ever happens to change the current system, I can only hope it's something like a plus one deal that restores the bowl system entirely... including axing the BCS.
Or perhaps only restore the Rose Bowl, and keep the Coalition.
That would at least GUARANTEE 3 teams have a shot at the title... 4 in some years... and would force every team to prove themselves an additional time before becoming the champion.
This year, if we restored the Coalition and added a plus one, it would mean Ohio State played USC in the Rose Bowl, and then Virginia Tech played LSU in the Sugar Bowl. If Ohio State won, it would get the winner of LSU-VT. Otherwise Oklahoma or other teams down the line would get a shot.
But again, this emphasizes to me that the ONLY way to add a playoff is by adding a dynamic system. Using some sort of objective qualification. Or something determined subjectively before the bowl games (a vote or something). Some years, there are just two top teams.
Some years there are 4 or 5 that might have a fair voice in the discussion.
If you want a playoff, set up one to work with that.
It would satisfy my dictum that college football remain unique in it's format, as well as being more statistically right.
But I'm happy with how it is now. Again, the words "it isn't perfect, but it's the best we got do come to mind". People don't like the argument that the regular season IS the playoff... put off by how teams supposedly were knocked out but then found their way back in. The phrase maybe sounds blind and trivializing.
But once last time... life... college football... aren't perfect. They are battles to do the best we can with the situation. The Bills season ended in the snow of Cleveland last week. The Giants lost Jeremy Shockey, how will they respond? Denver's season turned on a set of unlikely plays against Chicago. It's a game between two teams to determine who is the best. Each quarter is 1/4th of the overall score. They don't play 55 minutes, then change the score for one final showdown.
So let the season of joy and cheer begin... Merry bowl season everyone!!!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Top 25 (Nov 25)
Clearer or cloudier?
That's the question after the losses by 4 more top 10 teams (I think we need to check historical records on # of losses by top 10 and top 5 teams!), including #1 LSU and #2 Kansas (#1 and #2 hadn't lost the same weekend since 1997, now it finally has happened twice this year...... could it happen again next week!?!) (and I wonder when the last time is that #1 and #2 both lost at home (at least technically, when it comes to Kansas)). Oregon losing also continues the "momentum" theme for this year, and knocks them and similarly coming-up-short Arizona State well back... and also confuses things further.
First, let's go to the poll, though:
1 Missouri 11-1 / win @ Kansas || +4
2 West Virginia 10-1 / win vs UConn || +1
3 Ohio State 11-1 / OFF || +3
4 Hawaii 11-0 / win vs Boise State || +3
5 Georgia 10-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || +3
6 Kansas 11-1 / loss vs Missouri || -5
7 Oklahoma 10-2 / win vs Oklahoma St || +3
8 LSU 10-2 / loss vs Arkansas || -6
9 Virginia Tech 10-2 / win @ Virginia || +4
10 USC 9-2 / win @ Arizona State || +2
11 Florida 9-3 / win vs FSU || 0
12 Arizona State 9-2 / loss vs USC || -8
13 Illinois 9-3 / OFF || +3
14 Tennessee 9-3 / win @ Kentucky || +4
15 Boston College 10-2 / win vs Miami || +5
16 South Florida 8-3 / win @ Pittsburgh || +5
17 Clemson 9-3 / win @ South Carolina || +5
18 Boise State 10-2 / loss @ Hawaii || -4
19 Virginia 9-3 / loss vs Virginia Tech || -2
20 Cincinnati 9-3 / win @ Syracuse || +4
21 Wisconsin 9-3 / OFF || +2
22 Auburn 8-4 / win vs Alabama || +3
23 Oregon 8-3 / loss @ UCLA || -14
24 Texas 9-3 / loss @ TAMU || -9
25 Arkansas 8-4 / win @ LSU || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Wake Forest, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, BYU, UConn, Oregon St, Utah, Penn St, Rutgers, Florida State, Mississippi State, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Fresno State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, Bowling Green
Fallen out: Connecticut
That's the first time I've ever wanted to move a team INTO the top 25 after a loss..... I think. I almost did, too, but had to give the nod to Arkansas.
So first things first, let's talk title picture. It's, very slowly, clearing into focus. Missouri still isn't terribly exciting to me, and I think Missouri was in a lose-lose situation tonight in that, if they won (as they did), everyone would think Kansas was just a giant fraud... and if they lost, they'd be done. And Kansas playing poorly the whole game hurt even more. The funniest thing is, except for a long string of slightly poor occurrences throughout the game, Kansas might have won that game.
Still, Missouri can't lose much. And Chase Daniel is suddenly everyone's Heisman winner over Tim Tebow...... which I think is 110% RIDICULOUS! Tebow 1, McFadden 2 looked like the easy ballot, especially after watching both work this weekend. Tebow once again showed this weekend his amazing talent at both the run and the pass with spectacular plays at both early in the game... but as Gary Danielson said, because 99% of the nation wasn't watching (because of that AMAZING finish to Kentucky-Tennessee (I didn't want to watch FSU-UF either!!!), he may be penalized. And to just add to the insanity, he set the record for rushing tds in a year by a quarterback! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?! More than the Vince Young's and Eric Crouch's of this world!?! While tossing in 29 passing touchdowns (he was tied for 10th in the NCAA coming into this weekend) to go with the 22 on the ground!?!
Daniel may have turned it up in the biggest game tonight, but he threw only 1 td and 2 picks against Oklahoma.
Yes, only 3 previous qbs with more than 2 losses have won the Heisman. But to blame Timmy T for the three losses is absurd. Three close losses in the SEC. 2 on the road to teams that'll be in the top 10 this weekend. And the offense never let them down in those games, in which they still scored 17, 24, and 30!?! Tebow had 8 tds to 2 int in those 3 games. Sorry, I like the Big 12, and I think Daniel has well-earned a spot at the table in New York... but you can't help but give it to a quarterback who has broken records, had breathtaking passes and runs, and led his team to a successful season in the brutal SEC (did you see those two games this weekend!!?!... the conference went 2-2 this weekend vs the ACC with 2 good wins, a close loss for South Carolina, and a poor game by Vandy). I have a pile of Florida State fans who will admit this man should win the Heisman. Don't forget how much an impact he had on UF's title run last season, too! Give the man the trophy. Invite Daniel, McFadden, White, and probably Brennan.
Anyways, oh yeah, title game.
I've gotta be honest... I am very confident Oklahoma wins next weekend.
And hopefully that'll quell all this Heisman jazz as an added bonus. They showed today how much Bradford means. And the game is in San Antonio. I say Oklahoma obliterates. I hope so.
If that's the case..... the team I despised playing gets in... and I'm not so sure that's an awful thing anymore. Yeah, amazing, the Buckeyes may be right back in the game. And the taste of a decisive victory over Michigan continues to taste good to end the season. Kansas should fall out of the title picture (though I bet the computers prop them up further than they should).
Virginia Tech looked SPECTACULAR this weekend in their win over UConn. They look ready to play, and honestly are still my pick to win the NC, with Ohio State being a close second (sorry Missouri, I'm not buying... and I've been the quiet champion of Kansas and you guys all year).
But the HUGE question is, just in case: who gets into the title game if, by some odd disaster, Pittsburgh somehow wins next week in Morgantown (I think that's downright impossible, but this year, you never know I suppose)?
If disaster does somehow happen, I think we may end up with a very overlooked disaster by the BCS. And I'm desperately hoping that just doesn't happen.
Because if WVU did lose, we'd end up with a 4 team battle for the NC, and it'd be a pretty decent discussion. The 4 teams I think have very legit claims if that happens:
Georgia - looking pretty as the best two loss team, and now doesn't have to play next week. Does that help or hurt? I have to go with help, but we'll definitely see.
Oklahoma - if Oklahoma does knock off Missouri decisively, it will bring up discussion, and the numbers will get close. How do Colorado and Texas Tech on the road for the losses and a pair of wins over Missouri along with a Texas in hand compare to losses to South Carolina (at home) and Tennessee on the road (blowout), with victories over Florida, Auburn, Kentucky... and Troy!?! It's a VERY good discussion. Does the later loss cost them more? And can I have Jon Bible's home address if it does (he did the KU-MU game tonight... and got at least one call wrong in the game)?
Kansas - it is going to be so intriguing to see where they end up after this week. The scoreboard makes it look like they played better than they did....... but even I turned the game off after halftime. They are done, with one loss (compared to the two for OU and Georgia). The computers won't assault them too badly. How bad to the people? Do they give them too much benefit of the doubt for having only lost to the #1 team at a neutral site by 6?!? It'll be VERY interesting!!! Will people rise up what they and I now agree would be a giant travesty... Kansas playing in the title game? An untested team: fine. A team that was tested once and dissected once: ridiculous! Prediction if they did get in: all time rating low.
Hawaii - THIS IS THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY DESERVES THE NOD IN MY BOOK. Perhaps they are just a new Kansas, but they have turned an awful start into a stellar finish, and really run through some pretty meaty teams. That's if they beat Washington next week. I also wonder very much how much Hawaii moves up. I'm guessing they only pass BC (and of course Texas), which is a real shame. Gotta believe they deserve to be above a 3-loss Florida team at least. But beat Washington (a good team), then we'll talk.
And honestly this list leaves out four also deserving teams: Virginia Tech (who might actually end up the numerical victor, but definitely wouldn't deserve it, haven lost ugly games to BC and especially LSU, and never looking dominant), USC (oh yeah, them... if they win next week, they actually are secretly on quite a beautiful roll (oh if they hadn't lost to Arizona State... they would actually be there now, at worst right behind OSU)), LSU (probably the best of the two loss teams, but having lost so late, probably falls too far), and West Virginia (South Florida and Pitt are an ugly two, but they would have two losses and have won some very defining games. Anyone else wondering where Florida would be had they not lost one of their three? I know I am! Would they be above Georgia? How about Ohio State!?!?! Hmmmm, one can think for a long time!
Updated BCS Discussion
Okey dokey, so now the bowl picture is a little clearer. FINALLY a second team clinched a BCS bowl birth today... most likely Georgia (honestly, there's no way Florida gets it..... unless Illinois gets one, then maybe a bowl will consider it... but Georgia is going to end up too highly ranked, honestly (quite possibly even top 4)).
Meanwhile, though, the Pac 10 picture got turned upside down. We were looking at the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 cleaning up three of the at-large spots... but the Pac 10 is excruciating danger now. Arizona State still represents an outside shot... but Oregon is done. A loss next weekend by USC or Arizona State finishes it off for good, and further blurs the BCS.
Also basically certain now: the Big East only gets 1 BCS team.
Also, I'm now quite confident the Big 12 has locked up a second berth.
So BCS breakdown:
Clearness -
SEC - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of LSU-TENNESSEE and one of Georgia/Florida/LSU, almost certainly Georgia)
Big 12 - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of OU-Missouri) and either loser or Kansas, probably Kansas.
Big East - West Virginia only
Murkiness -
ACC - Qualifies winner of BC-VT... but does loser stay in the top 14... or does Virginia somehow creep back in? If VT wins, it looks near impossible... unless they must expand the at-large field as now being discussed.
Pac 10 - Qualifies conference winner (USC if they win, ASU with a win and USC loss, Oregon maybe if both teams lose and they win). If USC and ASU both win, that should bring 2 berths. But if they don't, it's shaky.
Big 10 - OHIO STATE is in. Illinois' picture is getting more pretty by the day.
Wac - Hawaii is right on the border of an auto-qualify by getting into top 12. Will not have any help by the top 16 conference winner rule. But actually looks most likely because of the three conferences above. If they win.
If Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and Oregon lose next weekend.... boy I haven't the foggiest about that last bid! Boston College/Virginia would be my best guess.
Predicted BCS games:
National Title Game - West Virginia vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Illinois vs USC
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs Arizona State
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Hawaii
That would require Hawaii sticking in the top 12 somehow even though BC probably jumps up. Basically it requires them to be ahead of VT, a tough proposition. But we shall see. Not the most exciting games.
Updated Large Bowl Picture
So now we can clean up the post from yesterday a bit.
ACC: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
Big East: 5 eligible, 5 tie-ins 0 6-6 teams (Louisville could become one, but won't go bowling)
Big 10: 10 eligible, 7 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Big 12: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
CUSA: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins
MAC: 5 eligible, 3 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams (1 is Miami (OH) which plays for title next week)
MWC: 5 eligible, 4 tie-ins, no 6-6 teams
Pac 10: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team and 1 more possible to reach 6-6
SEC: 10 eligible, 8 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Sun Belt: 3 eligible, 1 tie-in, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team
WAC: 3 (will be 4) eligible, 3 tie-ins, will be 1 6-6 team
Indep: Navy in, Western Kentucky not legal yet.
70 eligible teams (will be at least 71, as much as 73)... 64 spots.
So which 7-9 teams get left home?
Well the only empty slots possible are the 4 at-large BCS teams. The SEC will eat up one of those slots. Leaving three. The Big 12 2nd BCS game will open up one at-large bowler. If the Big 10 or WAC get a second BCS team, they will eat a second at-large bowler within their conference. If the ACC gets a second BCS, it will open a second at-large slot. Finally, the Pac 10 could go either way, with 2 BCSers and an empty slot, or 1 BCSer and 7 eligible teams leaving one team outside looking in.
We'll say all the 7-5 Big 10 teams get into bowls... so then whether Illinois goes to the BCS or some team goes to an at-large bowl slot, it doesn't matter.
That leaves 2 slots... possibly one if Arizona beats Oregon and Arizona State loses. The Mountain West and MAC are the two most likely to take an extra slot, with it possible 4 MAC teams get to 7 wins next week... and even if not, a division champion in Miami, OH has 6 wins. However, Florida Atlantic could draw consideration if they beat Troy next week and move to 7-5 as well.
Last eligible teams most likely to get into bowl slots. From most likely to get in down to least.
All of Michigan State/Purdue/Indiana
TCU
Two of Ball State and Central Michigan (if Miami (OH) wins. If CMU wins, they auto-qualify)
All of Arizona/Cal/UCLA, if UA wins (Cal & UCLA auto-qualify if Arizona does not win)
Miami (OH) (if Central Michigan wins... if Miami wins they auto-qualify)
Florida Atlantic
Both Alabama/South Carolina (1 will go)
Winner of Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (loser doesn't qualify)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisville
Iowa
Ohio
Northwestern
Interesting that both ULM and Alabama are near the cusp... and it'll be odd to see Alabama get in but ULM not. But that's what it is to be in the SEC.
It'll be VERY interesting to see which team gets picked out of South Carolina and Alabama, though. Man, two teams that were on the outskirts of the title talk in October... and were definitely in the thick of their division races... one gets left home. South Carolina beat Georgia and Kentucky and took Tennessee and Clemson to the ropes. Bama beat Tennessee and Arkansas and took LSU, Georgia, FSU, and even Auburn to the ropes. Amazing that one of those teams doesn't get in.
Honestly, it has to be Bama after losing to Mississippi State and ULM in back-to-back weeks and losing 4 straight to end the year. South Carolina lost 5 straight to end... but after a bad loss to Vandy (Gamecocks were ranked #6 at the time!!!), the last 4 are all now-ranked opponents. And there's still no ULM. Of course it all depends on matchups.
I'm still sad Louisville stays home, too, even if they beat Rutgers. What an awful way for Brahm to go out. I guess that speaks to the abilities of Petrino.
Odds and Ends
It's records all around for my favorite teams. Not only did Tebow tie the rushing td mark for a qb today... but Sam Bradford at OU broke the NCAA record for passing tds for a freshman, and Kevin Smith is now 4th all-time in terms of yards rushing EVER.
The problem is that so many of those records are entirely due to the expansion to 12 games. Smith could theoretically break the NCAA record by rushing for 464 yards in next week's CUSA title game and then the bowl game. But the records the breaks are of those people who only had 11 games count (bowls didn't count back in the day, either). Bradford also got the bonus of an extra game and the weak Big 12. It's Tebow's numbers that continues to shine. Even if you cut back today's numbers, he still is the first qb to go 20/20.
I felt good about the chances of a Florida-Illinois bowl game earlier today... but I now I feel they are almost impossible. Florida-USC in the Rose Bowl is almost as likely! It is interesting that Georgia, with 2 losses could miss the BCS. But if they don't make top 4, and Tebow wins the Heisman (though I don't think that comes out until after the BCS selection), it might have been possible. It's definitely of interest to the BCS folks that Florida will probably pull a bigger audience. Money talks. But Florida will still probably stay home... while Illinois is probably going to the Rose Bowl, which would defeat all hope of a meeting. Now, if Missouri does win next week (maybe I should stop counting a loss as a definite), then Illinois doesn't go to the Rose and it's a tad bit more likely they don't make the BCS. It'd help if BC and 2 of the 3 Pac 10 teams win next week.
I heard it today on CBS: "UF should be preseason #1". Hadn't thought about it. But how can they not be? They have 5 seniors, 3 on offense and 2 on D (unfortunately one is Tony Joyner, in the already weak secondary) [oh, don't forget kicker Tony Ijjas is a senior too]. Losing two O lineman could be sneakily painful, too. But with all the skill players back, plus a running back coming in from USC, and the D progressing a year... how do you doubt them!?! 19 points from being undefeated this year. That's less than Georgia. Only teams with less: Hawaii (0), Kansas (6), Ohio State (7), LSU (8), West Virginia (8), USC (8), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (10), South Florida (15), Illinois (16), Cincy (16), Boston College (17), BYU (18).
Ok, that's more than I thought! Can you still tell me it wasn't an amazing season!!?!
Also of interest: Illinois only loses two starters on offense (but 5 on D).
Yikes, Ohio State only loses 2 on offense and 1 on D.
BTW, 3/2 for Georgia, as well.
6/3 for my supposed sneaky NCSU team.
2/8 for Arizona (yipe).
None of those count early-leaving juniors/others.
Anyways, one more week. Anyone as exhausted as me!?!
That's the question after the losses by 4 more top 10 teams (I think we need to check historical records on # of losses by top 10 and top 5 teams!), including #1 LSU and #2 Kansas (#1 and #2 hadn't lost the same weekend since 1997, now it finally has happened twice this year...... could it happen again next week!?!) (and I wonder when the last time is that #1 and #2 both lost at home (at least technically, when it comes to Kansas)). Oregon losing also continues the "momentum" theme for this year, and knocks them and similarly coming-up-short Arizona State well back... and also confuses things further.
First, let's go to the poll, though:
1 Missouri 11-1 / win @ Kansas || +4
2 West Virginia 10-1 / win vs UConn || +1
3 Ohio State 11-1 / OFF || +3
4 Hawaii 11-0 / win vs Boise State || +3
5 Georgia 10-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || +3
6 Kansas 11-1 / loss vs Missouri || -5
7 Oklahoma 10-2 / win vs Oklahoma St || +3
8 LSU 10-2 / loss vs Arkansas || -6
9 Virginia Tech 10-2 / win @ Virginia || +4
10 USC 9-2 / win @ Arizona State || +2
11 Florida 9-3 / win vs FSU || 0
12 Arizona State 9-2 / loss vs USC || -8
13 Illinois 9-3 / OFF || +3
14 Tennessee 9-3 / win @ Kentucky || +4
15 Boston College 10-2 / win vs Miami || +5
16 South Florida 8-3 / win @ Pittsburgh || +5
17 Clemson 9-3 / win @ South Carolina || +5
18 Boise State 10-2 / loss @ Hawaii || -4
19 Virginia 9-3 / loss vs Virginia Tech || -2
20 Cincinnati 9-3 / win @ Syracuse || +4
21 Wisconsin 9-3 / OFF || +2
22 Auburn 8-4 / win vs Alabama || +3
23 Oregon 8-3 / loss @ UCLA || -14
24 Texas 9-3 / loss @ TAMU || -9
25 Arkansas 8-4 / win @ LSU || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Wake Forest, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, BYU, UConn, Oregon St, Utah, Penn St, Rutgers, Florida State, Mississippi State, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Fresno State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, Bowling Green
Fallen out: Connecticut
That's the first time I've ever wanted to move a team INTO the top 25 after a loss..... I think. I almost did, too, but had to give the nod to Arkansas.
So first things first, let's talk title picture. It's, very slowly, clearing into focus. Missouri still isn't terribly exciting to me, and I think Missouri was in a lose-lose situation tonight in that, if they won (as they did), everyone would think Kansas was just a giant fraud... and if they lost, they'd be done. And Kansas playing poorly the whole game hurt even more. The funniest thing is, except for a long string of slightly poor occurrences throughout the game, Kansas might have won that game.
Still, Missouri can't lose much. And Chase Daniel is suddenly everyone's Heisman winner over Tim Tebow...... which I think is 110% RIDICULOUS! Tebow 1, McFadden 2 looked like the easy ballot, especially after watching both work this weekend. Tebow once again showed this weekend his amazing talent at both the run and the pass with spectacular plays at both early in the game... but as Gary Danielson said, because 99% of the nation wasn't watching (because of that AMAZING finish to Kentucky-Tennessee (I didn't want to watch FSU-UF either!!!), he may be penalized. And to just add to the insanity, he set the record for rushing tds in a year by a quarterback! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?! More than the Vince Young's and Eric Crouch's of this world!?! While tossing in 29 passing touchdowns (he was tied for 10th in the NCAA coming into this weekend) to go with the 22 on the ground!?!
Daniel may have turned it up in the biggest game tonight, but he threw only 1 td and 2 picks against Oklahoma.
Yes, only 3 previous qbs with more than 2 losses have won the Heisman. But to blame Timmy T for the three losses is absurd. Three close losses in the SEC. 2 on the road to teams that'll be in the top 10 this weekend. And the offense never let them down in those games, in which they still scored 17, 24, and 30!?! Tebow had 8 tds to 2 int in those 3 games. Sorry, I like the Big 12, and I think Daniel has well-earned a spot at the table in New York... but you can't help but give it to a quarterback who has broken records, had breathtaking passes and runs, and led his team to a successful season in the brutal SEC (did you see those two games this weekend!!?!... the conference went 2-2 this weekend vs the ACC with 2 good wins, a close loss for South Carolina, and a poor game by Vandy). I have a pile of Florida State fans who will admit this man should win the Heisman. Don't forget how much an impact he had on UF's title run last season, too! Give the man the trophy. Invite Daniel, McFadden, White, and probably Brennan.
Anyways, oh yeah, title game.
I've gotta be honest... I am very confident Oklahoma wins next weekend.
And hopefully that'll quell all this Heisman jazz as an added bonus. They showed today how much Bradford means. And the game is in San Antonio. I say Oklahoma obliterates. I hope so.
If that's the case..... the team I despised playing gets in... and I'm not so sure that's an awful thing anymore. Yeah, amazing, the Buckeyes may be right back in the game. And the taste of a decisive victory over Michigan continues to taste good to end the season. Kansas should fall out of the title picture (though I bet the computers prop them up further than they should).
Virginia Tech looked SPECTACULAR this weekend in their win over UConn. They look ready to play, and honestly are still my pick to win the NC, with Ohio State being a close second (sorry Missouri, I'm not buying... and I've been the quiet champion of Kansas and you guys all year).
But the HUGE question is, just in case: who gets into the title game if, by some odd disaster, Pittsburgh somehow wins next week in Morgantown (I think that's downright impossible, but this year, you never know I suppose)?
If disaster does somehow happen, I think we may end up with a very overlooked disaster by the BCS. And I'm desperately hoping that just doesn't happen.
Because if WVU did lose, we'd end up with a 4 team battle for the NC, and it'd be a pretty decent discussion. The 4 teams I think have very legit claims if that happens:
Georgia - looking pretty as the best two loss team, and now doesn't have to play next week. Does that help or hurt? I have to go with help, but we'll definitely see.
Oklahoma - if Oklahoma does knock off Missouri decisively, it will bring up discussion, and the numbers will get close. How do Colorado and Texas Tech on the road for the losses and a pair of wins over Missouri along with a Texas in hand compare to losses to South Carolina (at home) and Tennessee on the road (blowout), with victories over Florida, Auburn, Kentucky... and Troy!?! It's a VERY good discussion. Does the later loss cost them more? And can I have Jon Bible's home address if it does (he did the KU-MU game tonight... and got at least one call wrong in the game)?
Kansas - it is going to be so intriguing to see where they end up after this week. The scoreboard makes it look like they played better than they did....... but even I turned the game off after halftime. They are done, with one loss (compared to the two for OU and Georgia). The computers won't assault them too badly. How bad to the people? Do they give them too much benefit of the doubt for having only lost to the #1 team at a neutral site by 6?!? It'll be VERY interesting!!! Will people rise up what they and I now agree would be a giant travesty... Kansas playing in the title game? An untested team: fine. A team that was tested once and dissected once: ridiculous! Prediction if they did get in: all time rating low.
Hawaii - THIS IS THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY DESERVES THE NOD IN MY BOOK. Perhaps they are just a new Kansas, but they have turned an awful start into a stellar finish, and really run through some pretty meaty teams. That's if they beat Washington next week. I also wonder very much how much Hawaii moves up. I'm guessing they only pass BC (and of course Texas), which is a real shame. Gotta believe they deserve to be above a 3-loss Florida team at least. But beat Washington (a good team), then we'll talk.
And honestly this list leaves out four also deserving teams: Virginia Tech (who might actually end up the numerical victor, but definitely wouldn't deserve it, haven lost ugly games to BC and especially LSU, and never looking dominant), USC (oh yeah, them... if they win next week, they actually are secretly on quite a beautiful roll (oh if they hadn't lost to Arizona State... they would actually be there now, at worst right behind OSU)), LSU (probably the best of the two loss teams, but having lost so late, probably falls too far), and West Virginia (South Florida and Pitt are an ugly two, but they would have two losses and have won some very defining games. Anyone else wondering where Florida would be had they not lost one of their three? I know I am! Would they be above Georgia? How about Ohio State!?!?! Hmmmm, one can think for a long time!
Updated BCS Discussion
Okey dokey, so now the bowl picture is a little clearer. FINALLY a second team clinched a BCS bowl birth today... most likely Georgia (honestly, there's no way Florida gets it..... unless Illinois gets one, then maybe a bowl will consider it... but Georgia is going to end up too highly ranked, honestly (quite possibly even top 4)).
Meanwhile, though, the Pac 10 picture got turned upside down. We were looking at the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 cleaning up three of the at-large spots... but the Pac 10 is excruciating danger now. Arizona State still represents an outside shot... but Oregon is done. A loss next weekend by USC or Arizona State finishes it off for good, and further blurs the BCS.
Also basically certain now: the Big East only gets 1 BCS team.
Also, I'm now quite confident the Big 12 has locked up a second berth.
So BCS breakdown:
Clearness -
SEC - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of LSU-TENNESSEE and one of Georgia/Florida/LSU, almost certainly Georgia)
Big 12 - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of OU-Missouri) and either loser or Kansas, probably Kansas.
Big East - West Virginia only
Murkiness -
ACC - Qualifies winner of BC-VT... but does loser stay in the top 14... or does Virginia somehow creep back in? If VT wins, it looks near impossible... unless they must expand the at-large field as now being discussed.
Pac 10 - Qualifies conference winner (USC if they win, ASU with a win and USC loss, Oregon maybe if both teams lose and they win). If USC and ASU both win, that should bring 2 berths. But if they don't, it's shaky.
Big 10 - OHIO STATE is in. Illinois' picture is getting more pretty by the day.
Wac - Hawaii is right on the border of an auto-qualify by getting into top 12. Will not have any help by the top 16 conference winner rule. But actually looks most likely because of the three conferences above. If they win.
If Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and Oregon lose next weekend.... boy I haven't the foggiest about that last bid! Boston College/Virginia would be my best guess.
Predicted BCS games:
National Title Game - West Virginia vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Illinois vs USC
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs Arizona State
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Hawaii
That would require Hawaii sticking in the top 12 somehow even though BC probably jumps up. Basically it requires them to be ahead of VT, a tough proposition. But we shall see. Not the most exciting games.
Updated Large Bowl Picture
So now we can clean up the post from yesterday a bit.
ACC: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
Big East: 5 eligible, 5 tie-ins 0 6-6 teams (Louisville could become one, but won't go bowling)
Big 10: 10 eligible, 7 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Big 12: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
CUSA: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins
MAC: 5 eligible, 3 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams (1 is Miami (OH) which plays for title next week)
MWC: 5 eligible, 4 tie-ins, no 6-6 teams
Pac 10: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team and 1 more possible to reach 6-6
SEC: 10 eligible, 8 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Sun Belt: 3 eligible, 1 tie-in, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team
WAC: 3 (will be 4) eligible, 3 tie-ins, will be 1 6-6 team
Indep: Navy in, Western Kentucky not legal yet.
70 eligible teams (will be at least 71, as much as 73)... 64 spots.
So which 7-9 teams get left home?
Well the only empty slots possible are the 4 at-large BCS teams. The SEC will eat up one of those slots. Leaving three. The Big 12 2nd BCS game will open up one at-large bowler. If the Big 10 or WAC get a second BCS team, they will eat a second at-large bowler within their conference. If the ACC gets a second BCS, it will open a second at-large slot. Finally, the Pac 10 could go either way, with 2 BCSers and an empty slot, or 1 BCSer and 7 eligible teams leaving one team outside looking in.
We'll say all the 7-5 Big 10 teams get into bowls... so then whether Illinois goes to the BCS or some team goes to an at-large bowl slot, it doesn't matter.
That leaves 2 slots... possibly one if Arizona beats Oregon and Arizona State loses. The Mountain West and MAC are the two most likely to take an extra slot, with it possible 4 MAC teams get to 7 wins next week... and even if not, a division champion in Miami, OH has 6 wins. However, Florida Atlantic could draw consideration if they beat Troy next week and move to 7-5 as well.
Last eligible teams most likely to get into bowl slots. From most likely to get in down to least.
All of Michigan State/Purdue/Indiana
TCU
Two of Ball State and Central Michigan (if Miami (OH) wins. If CMU wins, they auto-qualify)
All of Arizona/Cal/UCLA, if UA wins (Cal & UCLA auto-qualify if Arizona does not win)
Miami (OH) (if Central Michigan wins... if Miami wins they auto-qualify)
Florida Atlantic
Both Alabama/South Carolina (1 will go)
Winner of Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (loser doesn't qualify)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisville
Iowa
Ohio
Northwestern
Interesting that both ULM and Alabama are near the cusp... and it'll be odd to see Alabama get in but ULM not. But that's what it is to be in the SEC.
It'll be VERY interesting to see which team gets picked out of South Carolina and Alabama, though. Man, two teams that were on the outskirts of the title talk in October... and were definitely in the thick of their division races... one gets left home. South Carolina beat Georgia and Kentucky and took Tennessee and Clemson to the ropes. Bama beat Tennessee and Arkansas and took LSU, Georgia, FSU, and even Auburn to the ropes. Amazing that one of those teams doesn't get in.
Honestly, it has to be Bama after losing to Mississippi State and ULM in back-to-back weeks and losing 4 straight to end the year. South Carolina lost 5 straight to end... but after a bad loss to Vandy (Gamecocks were ranked #6 at the time!!!), the last 4 are all now-ranked opponents. And there's still no ULM. Of course it all depends on matchups.
I'm still sad Louisville stays home, too, even if they beat Rutgers. What an awful way for Brahm to go out. I guess that speaks to the abilities of Petrino.
Odds and Ends
It's records all around for my favorite teams. Not only did Tebow tie the rushing td mark for a qb today... but Sam Bradford at OU broke the NCAA record for passing tds for a freshman, and Kevin Smith is now 4th all-time in terms of yards rushing EVER.
The problem is that so many of those records are entirely due to the expansion to 12 games. Smith could theoretically break the NCAA record by rushing for 464 yards in next week's CUSA title game and then the bowl game. But the records the breaks are of those people who only had 11 games count (bowls didn't count back in the day, either). Bradford also got the bonus of an extra game and the weak Big 12. It's Tebow's numbers that continues to shine. Even if you cut back today's numbers, he still is the first qb to go 20/20.
I felt good about the chances of a Florida-Illinois bowl game earlier today... but I now I feel they are almost impossible. Florida-USC in the Rose Bowl is almost as likely! It is interesting that Georgia, with 2 losses could miss the BCS. But if they don't make top 4, and Tebow wins the Heisman (though I don't think that comes out until after the BCS selection), it might have been possible. It's definitely of interest to the BCS folks that Florida will probably pull a bigger audience. Money talks. But Florida will still probably stay home... while Illinois is probably going to the Rose Bowl, which would defeat all hope of a meeting. Now, if Missouri does win next week (maybe I should stop counting a loss as a definite), then Illinois doesn't go to the Rose and it's a tad bit more likely they don't make the BCS. It'd help if BC and 2 of the 3 Pac 10 teams win next week.
I heard it today on CBS: "UF should be preseason #1". Hadn't thought about it. But how can they not be? They have 5 seniors, 3 on offense and 2 on D (unfortunately one is Tony Joyner, in the already weak secondary) [oh, don't forget kicker Tony Ijjas is a senior too]. Losing two O lineman could be sneakily painful, too. But with all the skill players back, plus a running back coming in from USC, and the D progressing a year... how do you doubt them!?! 19 points from being undefeated this year. That's less than Georgia. Only teams with less: Hawaii (0), Kansas (6), Ohio State (7), LSU (8), West Virginia (8), USC (8), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (10), South Florida (15), Illinois (16), Cincy (16), Boston College (17), BYU (18).
Ok, that's more than I thought! Can you still tell me it wasn't an amazing season!!?!
Also of interest: Illinois only loses two starters on offense (but 5 on D).
Yikes, Ohio State only loses 2 on offense and 1 on D.
BTW, 3/2 for Georgia, as well.
6/3 for my supposed sneaky NCSU team.
2/8 for Arizona (yipe).
None of those count early-leaving juniors/others.
Anyways, one more week. Anyone as exhausted as me!?!
Friday, November 23, 2007
Let's talk bowls:
So I did a detailed bowl analysis by conference tonight... and here it is!!!
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
ACC: 7 eligible, 1 will be, 1 more possible > Miami @ BC, Maryland @ NCSU
Big East: 5 eligible, 1 more poss > Rutgers @ Louisville
Big 10: 10 eligible
Big 12: 8 eligibile, 1 poss > KState @ Fresno
CUSA: 6 eligible
MAC: 4 eligible, 1 poss > Miami OH @ Ohio
MWC: 5 eligible (man, Wyoming's season fell apart)
Pac 10: 5 eligible, 2 poss > Arizona @ Arizona State, UCLA with Oregon & USC left
SEC: 10 eligible, 1 poss > Wake @ Vandy
Sun Belt: 1 eligible, 3 poss > Ark State @ USM, ULM @ ULL, FAU has FIU and Troy still
WAC: 3 eligible, 1 will be, with 1 more poss > Nevada @ SJSU, then LTech @ Nevada
Independents: 2 eligible
Total: 68 auto, 11 more poss. I'd say about 7 of those make it.
32 bowl games -> 64 teams qualify.
Hmm, didn't know this: "NCAA bylaws stipulate any team finishing 6-6 can only be selected to fill a conference tie-in bowl slot once all other available conference teams are chosen."
ACC: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
Big East: 5 tie ins (5 filled)
Big 10: 7 tie ins (3 leftover)
Big 12: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
CUSA: 6 tie ins (6 filled)
MAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
MWC: 4 tie ins (1 leftover)
Pac 10: 6 tie ins (maybe 1 leftover, but I say it's unlikely)
SeC: 8 tie ins (2 leftover)
Sun Belt: 1 tie in (1 filled)
WAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
Navy: signed to the Poinsettia Bowl
W Ken: not listed on the site I'm looking at, so perhaps not eligible?
So unless my info is wrong, there are no empty slots except the BCS bowl at-larges. That's 4 spots. That should give a 9th SEC team a spot... and probably an extra WAC team... but if the other two go to Pac 10 and Big 12, it may open up 2 slots to heavy contest.
So missing:
ACC: 1 possibly (either the NCSU/Maryland winner, or Miami, depending on season series)
Big East: Louisville is basically out unless they get a 2nd BCS team.
Big 10: Iowa and Northwestern are out. The rest of the teams have 7+ wins, so I bet they get an at-large.
Big 12: If KState wins, it comes down to Colorado, KState, and possibly OSU to the odd team out.
CUSA: good to go. Yay UCF!
MAC: Only 1 team with over 6 wins. I doubt they get a 4th. I sure HOPE they don't get a 4th. Awful conference this year.
MWC: If TCU beats SDSt, then all will be 7+ wins... and probably snag another at-large.
Pac 10: doubtful to go over... but 1 wins get them their required 6. But they still have an open slot assuming a 2nd BcSer.
SEC: So it does come down to Alabama and South Carolina. If both win... all 10 have 7, and then it gets messy. If neither win, it's 9 assuming they get a BCS at-large.
Sun Belt: good to go, Troy
WAC: I say they get 4... of course dependent upon Hawaii/BS qualifying for the BCS. They only have 2 teams over 6 wins, but could end up with 4 still. So theoretically could sneak in 4 anyways. And won't get 5.
Independents: looks like Navy has their spot, and WKen isn't being considered, according to the data I read.
So the extra spots go to a Big 10 team, an SEC team, a WAC team (if Hawaii/Boise make it), and a giant toss up (MWC looking best, then maybe the SEC if a good day tomorrow).
But of course, as wikipedia's article notes, "The Independence Bowl, for instance, only has loose ties with the Big 12 and SEC, although any Division I FBS team may be chosen to play in the bowl".
My source for the tie-ins is some ordinary page at http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/2007/bowls.html.
Anyways, it's interesting to consider. And that teams slike Alabama and South Carolina could be left home after such amazing early seasons, while Cal, losers of 5 of their last 6, is set to go with 6 wins. Should be some SPECTACULAR bowls this year, though, with the huge mass of teams that were title contenders at one point this season!
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
ACC: 7 eligible, 1 will be, 1 more possible > Miami @ BC, Maryland @ NCSU
Big East: 5 eligible, 1 more poss > Rutgers @ Louisville
Big 10: 10 eligible
Big 12: 8 eligibile, 1 poss > KState @ Fresno
CUSA: 6 eligible
MAC: 4 eligible, 1 poss > Miami OH @ Ohio
MWC: 5 eligible (man, Wyoming's season fell apart)
Pac 10: 5 eligible, 2 poss > Arizona @ Arizona State, UCLA with Oregon & USC left
SEC: 10 eligible, 1 poss > Wake @ Vandy
Sun Belt: 1 eligible, 3 poss > Ark State @ USM, ULM @ ULL, FAU has FIU and Troy still
WAC: 3 eligible, 1 will be, with 1 more poss > Nevada @ SJSU, then LTech @ Nevada
Independents: 2 eligible
Total: 68 auto, 11 more poss. I'd say about 7 of those make it.
32 bowl games -> 64 teams qualify.
Hmm, didn't know this: "NCAA bylaws stipulate any team finishing 6-6 can only be selected to fill a conference tie-in bowl slot once all other available conference teams are chosen."
ACC: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
Big East: 5 tie ins (5 filled)
Big 10: 7 tie ins (3 leftover)
Big 12: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
CUSA: 6 tie ins (6 filled)
MAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
MWC: 4 tie ins (1 leftover)
Pac 10: 6 tie ins (maybe 1 leftover, but I say it's unlikely)
SeC: 8 tie ins (2 leftover)
Sun Belt: 1 tie in (1 filled)
WAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
Navy: signed to the Poinsettia Bowl
W Ken: not listed on the site I'm looking at, so perhaps not eligible?
So unless my info is wrong, there are no empty slots except the BCS bowl at-larges. That's 4 spots. That should give a 9th SEC team a spot... and probably an extra WAC team... but if the other two go to Pac 10 and Big 12, it may open up 2 slots to heavy contest.
So missing:
ACC: 1 possibly (either the NCSU/Maryland winner, or Miami, depending on season series)
Big East: Louisville is basically out unless they get a 2nd BCS team.
Big 10: Iowa and Northwestern are out. The rest of the teams have 7+ wins, so I bet they get an at-large.
Big 12: If KState wins, it comes down to Colorado, KState, and possibly OSU to the odd team out.
CUSA: good to go. Yay UCF!
MAC: Only 1 team with over 6 wins. I doubt they get a 4th. I sure HOPE they don't get a 4th. Awful conference this year.
MWC: If TCU beats SDSt, then all will be 7+ wins... and probably snag another at-large.
Pac 10: doubtful to go over... but 1 wins get them their required 6. But they still have an open slot assuming a 2nd BcSer.
SEC: So it does come down to Alabama and South Carolina. If both win... all 10 have 7, and then it gets messy. If neither win, it's 9 assuming they get a BCS at-large.
Sun Belt: good to go, Troy
WAC: I say they get 4... of course dependent upon Hawaii/BS qualifying for the BCS. They only have 2 teams over 6 wins, but could end up with 4 still. So theoretically could sneak in 4 anyways. And won't get 5.
Independents: looks like Navy has their spot, and WKen isn't being considered, according to the data I read.
So the extra spots go to a Big 10 team, an SEC team, a WAC team (if Hawaii/Boise make it), and a giant toss up (MWC looking best, then maybe the SEC if a good day tomorrow).
But of course, as wikipedia's article notes, "The Independence Bowl, for instance, only has loose ties with the Big 12 and SEC, although any Division I FBS team may be chosen to play in the bowl".
My source for the tie-ins is some ordinary page at http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/2007/bowls.html.
Anyways, it's interesting to consider. And that teams slike Alabama and South Carolina could be left home after such amazing early seasons, while Cal, losers of 5 of their last 6, is set to go with 6 wins. Should be some SPECTACULAR bowls this year, though, with the huge mass of teams that were title contenders at one point this season!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Top 25 (Nov 19)
OK, I think I'm finally cooled down from that debacle of officiating called the Texas Tech game Saturday night. We lost that game... but yet again the refs took it away. For the first 42 minutes, we deserved to lose and I was ready to move on just as I did after the OU and UF losses. A loss is a loss.
But we came back with authority. We wanted that win... and honestly, we earned OT.
I don't know who to blame for the awful "not-a-td" call... I'm not quick to get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon... but 3 times in 3 years is absurd.
Anyways, time to move on.
I find it VERY awesome and funny that the BCS today addressed exactly what I had written about last week. In fact, if I want to talk conspiracy... who all is reading my Blog!?! First the Texas Tech deal... now the BCS one.
But hooray! The BCS has opted to expand the eligible team pool to 18 from 14 IN THE RARE POSSIBILITY THAT NOT ENOUGH TEAMS QUALIFY. *Grins*
Anyways, it's poll time:
1 Kansas 11-0 / win vs Iowa State || 0
2 LSU 10-1 / win @ Mississippi || 0
3 West Virginia 9-1 / win @ Cincinnati || +2
4 Arizona State 9-1 / OFF || +2
5 Missouri 10-1 / win @ Kansas State || +2
6 Ohio State 11-1 / win @ Michigan || +2
7 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Nevada || +2
8 Georgia 9-2 / win vs Kentucky || +2
9 Oregon 8-2 / loss @ Arizona || -6
10 Oklahoma 9-2 / loss (with officiating help :-)) @ Texas Tech || -6
11 Florida 8-3 / win vs FAU || 0
12 USC 8-2 / OFF || 0
13 Virginia Tech 9-2 / win vs Miami || 0
14 Boise State 10-1 / win vs Idaho || 0
15 Texas 9-2 / OFF || 0
16 Illinois 9-3 / win vs Northwestern|| +3
17 Virginia 9-2 / OFF || +1
18 Tennessee 8-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || -1
19 Connecticut 9-2 / win vs Syracuse || +2
20 Boston College 9-2 / win vs Clemson || 0
21 South Florida 8-3 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Clemson 8-2 / loss @ Boston College || -6
23 Wisconsin 9-3 / win @ Minnesota || -1
24 Cincinnati 8-3 / loss vs West Virginia || 0
25 Auburn 7-4 / OFF || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech
Fallen out: Penn State, Kentucky
///
Discussion:
Definitely continues to get murky at the bottom. Tough to drop Cincy when they played a close one... and teams near the top 25 all lost bad games. Cal lost their 5th in 6 games...... remember when we were really thinking about them as National Champion possibilities??? And Alabama lost to ULM.
So as disappointing as a weekend as I had all-around in college football (in the early games, I was rooting for Michigan, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State... then rooting for Mississippi and NC State... and of course Oklahoma)... it could be much much worse.
-- The most interesting thing to me is now definitely becoming the Hawaii/Boise/WAC situation. People are FINALLY starting to murmur about Boise making it back to the BCS... all I can say is about time. Out of all the games to come next week, this one may be the most critical and thus interesting (ok, UConn/UWV is pretty big on my radar, too) all around... and they are playing some game in Kansas City?
It's starting to become nervous for the WAC representative-hopeful. Hawaii seems to be treading water... winning, but never gaining any real ground, even as they beat decent teams. This is the first week they've moved up in the BCS since their off week back on Oct 20th. I guess they should stop playing. It's quite ironic that they move up in the weekend that DOESN'T have all the huge upsets!
Obviously, it was another game they probably should have lost. But I've learned to give Hawaii a little more respect. And they made it through the minefield of weak opponents and injuries to Boise. About as close a call as they could have, but still.
On the other hand, Boise did fall in the BCS this week... and when you play Idaho, that's not shocking. They will get a bit of help this week... but it's going to be tough to make up a lot of ground here. If they beat Hawaii convincingly, all people will remember is Hawaii's near misses. Perhaps if they sneak one out they have the best shot of gaining some serious ground. But the computers aren't going to do them a lot of favors for beating a Hawaii team with one of the worst SOS' out there.
I thought Hawaii and Boise could only gain, since they were so low in the computers (particularly Hawaii... especially since they had slightly better teams ahead on the schedule). Boise's desperation may come down to people remembering them from last year. And they can proclaim they want to prove it wasn't a fluke. But, then, will the big boys want to risk letting them win 2 in a row!?!
The biggest disaster left is a realistic one... that Hawaii wins, then loses to Washington. How interesting that Washington could single-handedly dash the WAC's hopes!?! They are the sole loss for Boise already, back in September. But Hawaii gets them at home. Then again, Hawaii hasn't exactly cruised through their schedule... so I doubt it's a cakewalk.
Then we get into whether the winner of the contest, barring that disaster loss, will get into the BCS. I was sure a month ago Hawaii was set... and we've only had an extra heaping of upsets to savor since then... and yet, here we are, the WAC winner will be teetering over the edge.
The best news is that the pool is indeed slim this year for the BCS. The WAC can thank the Big 12 and SEC if, indeed, it does slip in despite being ranked below 12th.
One big door that opened last week slammed shut this week, as Ohio State sewed up the Big 10 with a win and kept a Michigan team from possibly unlocking the "guaranteed 16" clause. Of course a few possibilities have cropped up. Here's the breakdown of the possibilities of a team winning their conference and falling outside the top 12... or particularly the top 16:
Big East - pretty much no shot at this point. If UConn (currently 20) wins, I think they end up right around 12... as they have a lot of room to move up in every poll. If WVU wins next week, even if they lose obscenely to Pittsburgh the final weekend, I doubt they fall out of the top 12.
SEC - strangely, their hope here actually lies in Georgia I think... but I doubt they get it. If Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU to win the title, they should move up well from their current spot (18th). LSU, even with a bad loss to Arkansas next week, would be fine if they won the following weekend. The only hope I see of interest is if UT, Georgia, AND LSU lose this week... then Georgia beats LSU in another ugly game. But basically this conference doesn't offer much help either.
ACC - Despite having their three possible teams being 8, 14, and 16... this conference looks decently good to have a top 12er. If the winner is the winner of the coastal from next weeks UVa/VT game, it's a lock. The WAC hope squarely lies in a BC loss to Miami this week (which I seriously doubt), and then to respond by winning next week.
Pac 10 - With 2 conference games left, with all three of the competing teams still with a weak game left (Arizona and two UCLA's), it could get a little messy. But with their teams at 6, 9, and 11, it'd be tough to go too bad, wouldn't it!?! Really to get below 12th, Arizona State would have to lose both and USC would have to lose to UCLA... and Oregon would have to lose one as well. Sorry WAC. Just beat Washington, or else the Pac 10 will have totally ended you.
Big 12 - Only shot here is the South winner from an ugly final weekend coming back out and beating the great North winner. OU could lose to Oklahoma State..... and Texas could lose to TAMU. I've been told OSU is mathematically eliminated. So you could end up with Oklahoma coming off another loss eeking one out in San Antonio. That's really the only hope there.
So as you can see, not many doors at all anymore for the WAC to auto-qualify. It's dicey to think they might make the top 12... and it's pretty unlikely now that a big-conference winner will fall outside the top 12... with a few spots still to be vacated by the USC/ASU loser (unless they win the conference... then Oregon and the winner would probably fall out), and quite possibly one or two Big 12 teams.
It all comes down, as I said earlier, to the at-large bid. And, honestly, I still have to think they'll get that.
The rule change IS actually interesting.
Because the most unfair thing in history could happen.
The BCS could come up short of the required number... unlocking 2 to 4 more teams... and they could theoretically skip over the WAC team in the top 16!
I really don't believe that's possible, though. The BCS isn't stupid. They've been sued before.
And besides, they've got an exciting rematch with Oklahoma (UGGGG) to toss around.
But it's going to be razor close.
If Hawaii doesn't win, then lose to Washington. Otherwise it'll all be for not.
-- OK, so Kansas and Missouri will, when all is said and done, quite possibly be the highest ranked game of the year (by this I mean the final records of the two teams involved) outside of the National Championship game (or maybe even including it!). Who would have thought that!?! *sheepishly raises hand* (take a look back at my very first poll back on October 7th! I was really interested in Kansas' obscene point differential in their first 4 cupcake games. Yes, I suggested no less than probably 5 teams could be dark horses... but I was on the Kansas bandwagon early all season. Way to go me! ;-)
Anyways, beyond their point total early in the season, there is one other thing that really has stood out to me this year about them... and that's their ability to consistently beat good teams on the road. It was something Florida did last year (sans Auburn, a close game... but they beat Georgia, they beat FSU, etc). It's something even the likes of LSU and WVU haven't been able to do this year.
And the stunning thing is how brutal their road schedule has been. They've had SEVEN home games this year and only 4 real road games. But those four are som pretty strong Big 12 teams; Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They aren't upper-echelon, but have proven to be a solid second tier. And they are rewarded with Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home... the worst 3 teams in the league. Their cupcake OOC sched really was everything to them this year... they probably would've never got the ball rolling this year if not for those tuneups... but they have had to continuously prove they are the best out there by beating every good team they've played on the road. To look at their low SOS and banish them just isn't being fair. And they wind it all up with a neutral-site game against Missouri!?!
It will definitely be interesting to see what type of crowd shows up this weekend. And it's amazing to think that the winner of this game is one game from the National Championship.
And then Missouri. I've really forgotten about them since they were handled by Oklahoma. Yet here they are, doing what Oklahoma wasn't able to. And they've quietly looked good too.
All I know is this one is a surprise matchup of the year that's gotta be one for the ages!
-- The other sorrow this weekend, besides OU losing, has to be the daggum SEC. Kentucky finally failed for me at the most critical time... and UF is eliminated.
At the same time, the gates on the freefalling season finally seemed to close up to make a bottom floor.
What is the lowest possible BCS team now to reach the NC game? And the worst possible game?
Worst scenario:
LSU and Georgia lose this weekend badly, likely eliminating them.
The winner of the KC battle gets shellacked by the South winner next weekend, eliminating them.
West Virginia loses again.
Arizona State loses again.
VTech and Oregon both lose again.
Wow, is it still possible Oklahoma could make the NC game!?!
SPEW.
The problem is, I don't think it is. One bottom-lock is definitely Ohio State. The other is probably Kansas if nothing else. The most they can have now is 1 loss, which itself is amazing! Even if their loss is awful, 1 loss will be tough to penalize that badly.
But it's amazing to think it could. Like what if Missouri wins 80-0? And then loses 63-3? *scratches head*
I guess if you want to be absurd, the absolute bottom-lock would be #17 Illinois. They are the first team down the list beyond Ohio State that doesn't still have the chance to really lose badly.
But really the bottom of the barrel left is probably Georgia. We'll know in a week.
But it's always been good to play "what if" this year.
-- I saw the ultimate suggestion tonight... and a VERY possible... make that probable, game! The Zook Bowl!
It could happen one of two ways: #1 is the easiest... the Florida Citrus Bowl.
#2 is just as intriguing... a BCS bowl. If three more teams fall out of the top 14... or if the teams that move up cause there to not be enough "pool" BCS teams... it's a good chance. Illinois would almost certainly be the pick if that happened. Tennessee winning the SEC title (a good possibility in my opinion) would be the perfect catalyst to it all. Then we'd just need something out of the ordinary from happening... particularly a top team unexpectedly not winning their conference (specifically if UConn beat UWV). And if it doesn't happen, the Citrus Bowl (Capital One... blah blah blah) is still a good chance... though the BCS would have to take Georgia over UF (also a good possibility, if LSU wins). So if Tennessee (and LSU) win this weekend, it definitely helps the matchup along in probability! And I'd love it!
-- And my last bit of interest is in West Virginia's run of recent. Like Missouri, they've been a team I've basically overlooked since their one loss...... even as I predicted them in the NC game a long ways back vs. South Carolina.
But this team is rolling. In the last month they beat a good Mississippi State (which beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama), then crushed Rutgers, beat Louisville, and then held off Cincinnati on the road. People may think those teams aren't the top ones, especially the first three... but I definitely think people are overlooked how potent they still are. I could still see Louisville or Rutgers beating anyone. Meanwhile the USF loss, after they had that bad stretch, has started to look squarely respectable again... and the team is together... and don't forget White was hurt in the USF game. Honestly, UWV has to be my top choice for nationally champion at this point. I would most love to see a Kansas-UWV battle (as much for the geeky "prestige" as anything)... but I would also enjoy LSU or Missouri in the game, and think any game involving those 4 would be decent. Not so sure about ASU or OSU. Thankfully I don't have to worry about them too much.
It should be an interesting January, for once ;-)
-- Bowl projections (as much for me to consider the interesting possibilities as you to really take stock in!)
National Championship - Kansas* vs. West Virginia*
Fiesta Bowl - Georgia vs Illinois
Sugar Bowl - Tennessee* vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech* vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - USC* vs Ohio State*
Exciting!
Have a good one!
But we came back with authority. We wanted that win... and honestly, we earned OT.
I don't know who to blame for the awful "not-a-td" call... I'm not quick to get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon... but 3 times in 3 years is absurd.
Anyways, time to move on.
I find it VERY awesome and funny that the BCS today addressed exactly what I had written about last week. In fact, if I want to talk conspiracy... who all is reading my Blog!?! First the Texas Tech deal... now the BCS one.
But hooray! The BCS has opted to expand the eligible team pool to 18 from 14 IN THE RARE POSSIBILITY THAT NOT ENOUGH TEAMS QUALIFY. *Grins*
Anyways, it's poll time:
1 Kansas 11-0 / win vs Iowa State || 0
2 LSU 10-1 / win @ Mississippi || 0
3 West Virginia 9-1 / win @ Cincinnati || +2
4 Arizona State 9-1 / OFF || +2
5 Missouri 10-1 / win @ Kansas State || +2
6 Ohio State 11-1 / win @ Michigan || +2
7 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Nevada || +2
8 Georgia 9-2 / win vs Kentucky || +2
9 Oregon 8-2 / loss @ Arizona || -6
10 Oklahoma 9-2 / loss (with officiating help :-)) @ Texas Tech || -6
11 Florida 8-3 / win vs FAU || 0
12 USC 8-2 / OFF || 0
13 Virginia Tech 9-2 / win vs Miami || 0
14 Boise State 10-1 / win vs Idaho || 0
15 Texas 9-2 / OFF || 0
16 Illinois 9-3 / win vs Northwestern|| +3
17 Virginia 9-2 / OFF || +1
18 Tennessee 8-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || -1
19 Connecticut 9-2 / win vs Syracuse || +2
20 Boston College 9-2 / win vs Clemson || 0
21 South Florida 8-3 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Clemson 8-2 / loss @ Boston College || -6
23 Wisconsin 9-3 / win @ Minnesota || -1
24 Cincinnati 8-3 / loss vs West Virginia || 0
25 Auburn 7-4 / OFF || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech
Fallen out: Penn State, Kentucky
///
Discussion:
Definitely continues to get murky at the bottom. Tough to drop Cincy when they played a close one... and teams near the top 25 all lost bad games. Cal lost their 5th in 6 games...... remember when we were really thinking about them as National Champion possibilities??? And Alabama lost to ULM.
So as disappointing as a weekend as I had all-around in college football (in the early games, I was rooting for Michigan, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State... then rooting for Mississippi and NC State... and of course Oklahoma)... it could be much much worse.
-- The most interesting thing to me is now definitely becoming the Hawaii/Boise/WAC situation. People are FINALLY starting to murmur about Boise making it back to the BCS... all I can say is about time. Out of all the games to come next week, this one may be the most critical and thus interesting (ok, UConn/UWV is pretty big on my radar, too) all around... and they are playing some game in Kansas City?
It's starting to become nervous for the WAC representative-hopeful. Hawaii seems to be treading water... winning, but never gaining any real ground, even as they beat decent teams. This is the first week they've moved up in the BCS since their off week back on Oct 20th. I guess they should stop playing. It's quite ironic that they move up in the weekend that DOESN'T have all the huge upsets!
Obviously, it was another game they probably should have lost. But I've learned to give Hawaii a little more respect. And they made it through the minefield of weak opponents and injuries to Boise. About as close a call as they could have, but still.
On the other hand, Boise did fall in the BCS this week... and when you play Idaho, that's not shocking. They will get a bit of help this week... but it's going to be tough to make up a lot of ground here. If they beat Hawaii convincingly, all people will remember is Hawaii's near misses. Perhaps if they sneak one out they have the best shot of gaining some serious ground. But the computers aren't going to do them a lot of favors for beating a Hawaii team with one of the worst SOS' out there.
I thought Hawaii and Boise could only gain, since they were so low in the computers (particularly Hawaii... especially since they had slightly better teams ahead on the schedule). Boise's desperation may come down to people remembering them from last year. And they can proclaim they want to prove it wasn't a fluke. But, then, will the big boys want to risk letting them win 2 in a row!?!
The biggest disaster left is a realistic one... that Hawaii wins, then loses to Washington. How interesting that Washington could single-handedly dash the WAC's hopes!?! They are the sole loss for Boise already, back in September. But Hawaii gets them at home. Then again, Hawaii hasn't exactly cruised through their schedule... so I doubt it's a cakewalk.
Then we get into whether the winner of the contest, barring that disaster loss, will get into the BCS. I was sure a month ago Hawaii was set... and we've only had an extra heaping of upsets to savor since then... and yet, here we are, the WAC winner will be teetering over the edge.
The best news is that the pool is indeed slim this year for the BCS. The WAC can thank the Big 12 and SEC if, indeed, it does slip in despite being ranked below 12th.
One big door that opened last week slammed shut this week, as Ohio State sewed up the Big 10 with a win and kept a Michigan team from possibly unlocking the "guaranteed 16" clause. Of course a few possibilities have cropped up. Here's the breakdown of the possibilities of a team winning their conference and falling outside the top 12... or particularly the top 16:
Big East - pretty much no shot at this point. If UConn (currently 20) wins, I think they end up right around 12... as they have a lot of room to move up in every poll. If WVU wins next week, even if they lose obscenely to Pittsburgh the final weekend, I doubt they fall out of the top 12.
SEC - strangely, their hope here actually lies in Georgia I think... but I doubt they get it. If Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU to win the title, they should move up well from their current spot (18th). LSU, even with a bad loss to Arkansas next week, would be fine if they won the following weekend. The only hope I see of interest is if UT, Georgia, AND LSU lose this week... then Georgia beats LSU in another ugly game. But basically this conference doesn't offer much help either.
ACC - Despite having their three possible teams being 8, 14, and 16... this conference looks decently good to have a top 12er. If the winner is the winner of the coastal from next weeks UVa/VT game, it's a lock. The WAC hope squarely lies in a BC loss to Miami this week (which I seriously doubt), and then to respond by winning next week.
Pac 10 - With 2 conference games left, with all three of the competing teams still with a weak game left (Arizona and two UCLA's), it could get a little messy. But with their teams at 6, 9, and 11, it'd be tough to go too bad, wouldn't it!?! Really to get below 12th, Arizona State would have to lose both and USC would have to lose to UCLA... and Oregon would have to lose one as well. Sorry WAC. Just beat Washington, or else the Pac 10 will have totally ended you.
Big 12 - Only shot here is the South winner from an ugly final weekend coming back out and beating the great North winner. OU could lose to Oklahoma State..... and Texas could lose to TAMU. I've been told OSU is mathematically eliminated. So you could end up with Oklahoma coming off another loss eeking one out in San Antonio. That's really the only hope there.
So as you can see, not many doors at all anymore for the WAC to auto-qualify. It's dicey to think they might make the top 12... and it's pretty unlikely now that a big-conference winner will fall outside the top 12... with a few spots still to be vacated by the USC/ASU loser (unless they win the conference... then Oregon and the winner would probably fall out), and quite possibly one or two Big 12 teams.
It all comes down, as I said earlier, to the at-large bid. And, honestly, I still have to think they'll get that.
The rule change IS actually interesting.
Because the most unfair thing in history could happen.
The BCS could come up short of the required number... unlocking 2 to 4 more teams... and they could theoretically skip over the WAC team in the top 16!
I really don't believe that's possible, though. The BCS isn't stupid. They've been sued before.
And besides, they've got an exciting rematch with Oklahoma (UGGGG) to toss around.
But it's going to be razor close.
If Hawaii doesn't win, then lose to Washington. Otherwise it'll all be for not.
-- OK, so Kansas and Missouri will, when all is said and done, quite possibly be the highest ranked game of the year (by this I mean the final records of the two teams involved) outside of the National Championship game (or maybe even including it!). Who would have thought that!?! *sheepishly raises hand* (take a look back at my very first poll back on October 7th! I was really interested in Kansas' obscene point differential in their first 4 cupcake games. Yes, I suggested no less than probably 5 teams could be dark horses... but I was on the Kansas bandwagon early all season. Way to go me! ;-)
Anyways, beyond their point total early in the season, there is one other thing that really has stood out to me this year about them... and that's their ability to consistently beat good teams on the road. It was something Florida did last year (sans Auburn, a close game... but they beat Georgia, they beat FSU, etc). It's something even the likes of LSU and WVU haven't been able to do this year.
And the stunning thing is how brutal their road schedule has been. They've had SEVEN home games this year and only 4 real road games. But those four are som pretty strong Big 12 teams; Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They aren't upper-echelon, but have proven to be a solid second tier. And they are rewarded with Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home... the worst 3 teams in the league. Their cupcake OOC sched really was everything to them this year... they probably would've never got the ball rolling this year if not for those tuneups... but they have had to continuously prove they are the best out there by beating every good team they've played on the road. To look at their low SOS and banish them just isn't being fair. And they wind it all up with a neutral-site game against Missouri!?!
It will definitely be interesting to see what type of crowd shows up this weekend. And it's amazing to think that the winner of this game is one game from the National Championship.
And then Missouri. I've really forgotten about them since they were handled by Oklahoma. Yet here they are, doing what Oklahoma wasn't able to. And they've quietly looked good too.
All I know is this one is a surprise matchup of the year that's gotta be one for the ages!
-- The other sorrow this weekend, besides OU losing, has to be the daggum SEC. Kentucky finally failed for me at the most critical time... and UF is eliminated.
At the same time, the gates on the freefalling season finally seemed to close up to make a bottom floor.
What is the lowest possible BCS team now to reach the NC game? And the worst possible game?
Worst scenario:
LSU and Georgia lose this weekend badly, likely eliminating them.
The winner of the KC battle gets shellacked by the South winner next weekend, eliminating them.
West Virginia loses again.
Arizona State loses again.
VTech and Oregon both lose again.
Wow, is it still possible Oklahoma could make the NC game!?!
SPEW.
The problem is, I don't think it is. One bottom-lock is definitely Ohio State. The other is probably Kansas if nothing else. The most they can have now is 1 loss, which itself is amazing! Even if their loss is awful, 1 loss will be tough to penalize that badly.
But it's amazing to think it could. Like what if Missouri wins 80-0? And then loses 63-3? *scratches head*
I guess if you want to be absurd, the absolute bottom-lock would be #17 Illinois. They are the first team down the list beyond Ohio State that doesn't still have the chance to really lose badly.
But really the bottom of the barrel left is probably Georgia. We'll know in a week.
But it's always been good to play "what if" this year.
-- I saw the ultimate suggestion tonight... and a VERY possible... make that probable, game! The Zook Bowl!
It could happen one of two ways: #1 is the easiest... the Florida Citrus Bowl.
#2 is just as intriguing... a BCS bowl. If three more teams fall out of the top 14... or if the teams that move up cause there to not be enough "pool" BCS teams... it's a good chance. Illinois would almost certainly be the pick if that happened. Tennessee winning the SEC title (a good possibility in my opinion) would be the perfect catalyst to it all. Then we'd just need something out of the ordinary from happening... particularly a top team unexpectedly not winning their conference (specifically if UConn beat UWV). And if it doesn't happen, the Citrus Bowl (Capital One... blah blah blah) is still a good chance... though the BCS would have to take Georgia over UF (also a good possibility, if LSU wins). So if Tennessee (and LSU) win this weekend, it definitely helps the matchup along in probability! And I'd love it!
-- And my last bit of interest is in West Virginia's run of recent. Like Missouri, they've been a team I've basically overlooked since their one loss...... even as I predicted them in the NC game a long ways back vs. South Carolina.
But this team is rolling. In the last month they beat a good Mississippi State (which beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama), then crushed Rutgers, beat Louisville, and then held off Cincinnati on the road. People may think those teams aren't the top ones, especially the first three... but I definitely think people are overlooked how potent they still are. I could still see Louisville or Rutgers beating anyone. Meanwhile the USF loss, after they had that bad stretch, has started to look squarely respectable again... and the team is together... and don't forget White was hurt in the USF game. Honestly, UWV has to be my top choice for nationally champion at this point. I would most love to see a Kansas-UWV battle (as much for the geeky "prestige" as anything)... but I would also enjoy LSU or Missouri in the game, and think any game involving those 4 would be decent. Not so sure about ASU or OSU. Thankfully I don't have to worry about them too much.
It should be an interesting January, for once ;-)
-- Bowl projections (as much for me to consider the interesting possibilities as you to really take stock in!)
National Championship - Kansas* vs. West Virginia*
Fiesta Bowl - Georgia vs Illinois
Sugar Bowl - Tennessee* vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech* vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - USC* vs Ohio State*
Exciting!
Have a good one!
Sunday, November 18, 2007
I don't want to talk about it
Oklahoma is officially hated by officials.
But not calmed down enough to rational about the awful td -> incomplete call with a few minutes left right now. We did indeed play poorly.
But anyways, I wrote instead to give another article championing the BCS. It's not perfect, but it's at least pretty concise with a few of the reasons...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21793292/
BTW, the response opinion on that page is great, because it's really filled with holes. So please have a read with of that as well.
You see, while I'm obviously rooting for a happy BCS ending... this guy just comes off as spiteful. He just wants things to mess up. And moreover, his arguments are awful. See, the problem is that if Kansas goes undefeated and gets left out to LSU and Oregon... Oregon and LSU must be spectacular teams, considered by many to be the best. He wants logic: that's the computers which he becries. He doesn't want the public's top-ranked team to get left out: that's the polls he becries. Is it just me, or is he just whining for the sake of having things his own way. See, the other article has the exact same stance I generally do. If we add a plus one, I'll deal... but I think it's a bad idea. These people on the other hand consider this whole season to be a waste and no fun? He must be a Nebraska or Notre Dame fan!!! (He actually writes for the St Louis Post Dispatch... but from his work, it looks like he's really enamored with the NFL more than college and just wants all things to mimic his pride and joy).
Also, sorry, but there were very few scenarios where a best team should get left out of the title game... West Virginia has no leg to stand on compared to the 3 Big 12 teams or LSU/Oregon... they've played weaker opponents and lost to a weaker opponent than everyone except Oklahoma. No conference title and many tough OOC losses. I like UWV... and want a Kansas-UWV showdown now (though I wouldn't complain if LSU wins out, either)... but it is going very fairly, and I think most everyone agrees.
Does he think the presidential vote is just as "unfair"?
It's the system. We deal with it. Welcome to a scientific democracy!
Anyways, hopefully I'll do a poll tomorrow. We'll see. If I can blow my post-Texas Tech depression away!
But not calmed down enough to rational about the awful td -> incomplete call with a few minutes left right now. We did indeed play poorly.
But anyways, I wrote instead to give another article championing the BCS. It's not perfect, but it's at least pretty concise with a few of the reasons...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21793292/
BTW, the response opinion on that page is great, because it's really filled with holes. So please have a read with of that as well.
You see, while I'm obviously rooting for a happy BCS ending... this guy just comes off as spiteful. He just wants things to mess up. And moreover, his arguments are awful. See, the problem is that if Kansas goes undefeated and gets left out to LSU and Oregon... Oregon and LSU must be spectacular teams, considered by many to be the best. He wants logic: that's the computers which he becries. He doesn't want the public's top-ranked team to get left out: that's the polls he becries. Is it just me, or is he just whining for the sake of having things his own way. See, the other article has the exact same stance I generally do. If we add a plus one, I'll deal... but I think it's a bad idea. These people on the other hand consider this whole season to be a waste and no fun? He must be a Nebraska or Notre Dame fan!!! (He actually writes for the St Louis Post Dispatch... but from his work, it looks like he's really enamored with the NFL more than college and just wants all things to mimic his pride and joy).
Also, sorry, but there were very few scenarios where a best team should get left out of the title game... West Virginia has no leg to stand on compared to the 3 Big 12 teams or LSU/Oregon... they've played weaker opponents and lost to a weaker opponent than everyone except Oklahoma. No conference title and many tough OOC losses. I like UWV... and want a Kansas-UWV showdown now (though I wouldn't complain if LSU wins out, either)... but it is going very fairly, and I think most everyone agrees.
Does he think the presidential vote is just as "unfair"?
It's the system. We deal with it. Welcome to a scientific democracy!
Anyways, hopefully I'll do a poll tomorrow. We'll see. If I can blow my post-Texas Tech depression away!
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Have I mentioned how much I enjoy Matt Hayes
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AqB27vg7hwKIS9lmle120N8cvrYF?slug=tenthingstowatchthisweek&prov=tsn&type=lgns
The guy has become quite the proponent of the BCS, looks FOR the upset instead of being shocked by it, and, oh, by the way, lives in Orlando.
Brilliant.
DING!
And then the guy writes all about the upsets that could happen today! I think he even one-upped me, when he went into LSU-Mississippi (which would be great... but I'm not exactly betting on!) and Illinois-Northwestern. None of the upsets have happened so far, but we're still hoping.
It's great to have such a mind writing in college football!
Also, note Tim Tebow breaking the new record (first qb for 20 passing tds and 20 running tds in the same year!?? Really!?! Wow!). If he doesn't win Heisman now (unless it's Todd Reising?), I'll go nuts. And honestly, he was the best candidate whatever everyone else did... I'm just glad that the other competitors continue to disappear to make this simpler for people, to avoid another travesty (see 2000... not that I'm a biased fan on these things!!!).
The guy has become quite the proponent of the BCS, looks FOR the upset instead of being shocked by it, and, oh, by the way, lives in Orlando.
Brilliant.
My friend Timmy Brando thinks this confusion, this utter chaos, will eventually be the undoing of the BCS. Quite the opposite, Timmy. This unthinkable, improbable season has only strengthened the BCS.
DING!
And then the guy writes all about the upsets that could happen today! I think he even one-upped me, when he went into LSU-Mississippi (which would be great... but I'm not exactly betting on!) and Illinois-Northwestern. None of the upsets have happened so far, but we're still hoping.
It's great to have such a mind writing in college football!
Also, note Tim Tebow breaking the new record (first qb for 20 passing tds and 20 running tds in the same year!?? Really!?! Wow!). If he doesn't win Heisman now (unless it's Todd Reising?), I'll go nuts. And honestly, he was the best candidate whatever everyone else did... I'm just glad that the other competitors continue to disappear to make this simpler for people, to avoid another travesty (see 2000... not that I'm a biased fan on these things!!!).
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Out of control // Predictions Gone Awry // Mississippi State
Just was driven to write my response on the Big 12 fine of Mike Leach. (see here)
Now, I am an official. I spent the full 2006-07 school year officiating most every major sport... flag football, basketball, soccer, and softball namely).
I do have to have some affinity for leagues and organizations that stand up for their refs. To one degree, they have to. The CampusRec IM supervisor's would tend to always back their referees. And to really have any reality as an official, you need to know that foundation is behind you... that while coaches and players may question every move you make, you can stand firm because those putting on the game have your back.
But there is a point at which you have to be honest. Or at least not go over the top.
I didn't see the game.
I don't know how warranted the complaints were.
What I do see when I read the article, though is a league that is trying to be consumingly iron-fisted. I teach, and I envision a teacher who just can't get his (or her) class under control. You start raising the ante, throwing out threats, even. Half of them are just casual threats. But you do whatever you can to reign in people, because you can't have people being loose cannons.
But the HUGE problem I see is in the writing:
"The fine doubled the previous high by the league, levied twice before, against Kansas coach Mark Mangino three years ago and former Kansas State basketball coach Jim Wooldridge during the 2005-06 season."
And I immediately flash back to that disgusting game in 2004. Tough to forget.
It was the emergence of Kansas as a football team no longer to be simply overlooked entirely each week. They had a lot more work to do. But this is when they showed us they could play.
And they won that game.
The pass interference call on Kansas that negated a first down and forced them to punt was the difference between a huge upset of Texas and Texas marching back down the field to win.
And I never met a person who didn't believe that call was utter garbage.
And it's not just that it was a bad call.
It's that it stands out in my mind.
From three years ago.
Look, when a call really is bad... you have to apologize and maybe lighten up on the fines. Definitely restrain yourself from singling out the coach who got upset.
Yet here is an example of a conference wanting to come down hard by the letter of the law instead of the intent.
Yet the letter of the law itself is stupid.
That's like saying Oklahoma fans did not have the right to complain about the Oregon officiating.
Imagine if the Pac 10 had fined Oklahoma? Or if it had been a Big 12 game!?! Would they have ended up suspending Bob Stoops????
I'm not the only one who remembers this awful call from 2004, either. When so many people are scarred into saving it in long-use brain cells... it's a big deal.
And I think I may remember the Kansas State basketball deal, too. Was it against Oklahoma State perhaps?
Doesn't matter.
Conferences are going over the top.
Another example of letter-of-rule being employed over intent, and ruining the fun of the game: Kentucky's win over LSU, and the hard-line SEC rule about fans on the field.
Correct me if I'm totally wrong, but I'm guessing the officiating stank in the Texas Tech game?
It's sad that the Big 12 opting to fine a coach indicates to me the officiating stank.
Welcome to college football in this day and age.
By the way, want some laughs?
I stumbled back across ESPN's preseason college football prediction set. HILARIOUS! Highlights include:
"1. The Wisconsin-Michigan winner takes the Big Ten title
Both teams will be unbeaten going into their Nov. 10 showdown at Camp Randall Stadium."
And continuing to:
"The Badgers' biggest scare will come at Penn State on Oct. 13, and they'll squeak out a win at Ohio State on Nov. 3.
The Wolverines will survive early-season shootouts against Oregon and Penn State, then the defense will hit its stride. Michigan will beat Wisconsin by a field goal, then lose to Ohio State the following week, costing the Wolverines a spot in the BCS Championship Game." -- if by survive you mean be decimated and by Penn State you mean "!?!?!?!?!?!?", you're absolutely right. And look at that stout, undefeated, Wisconsin team. Wooowhee they are good ;-)
"the Hawkeyes will rebound to win their last six games and finish 10-2. Coach Kirk Ferentz will become a hot commodity again for a job in the NFL." -- Captain Kirk is garnering more attention from the NFL.
"5. Minnesota will be better than Michigan State"; "The Gophers will go bowling in 2007;" -- I hear leagues are forming fall the winter at the local AMF.
"Hurricanes, Seminoles will challenge Hokies for ACC crown" -- ...
"1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC
The Hokies will have one of the country's best defenses, led by linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and cornerback Brandon Flowers. The offense will be better, but it won't score enough points in Week 2 at LSU, which will be Virginia Tech's only loss of the season" -- Might well still happen... but just found it funny. A little too good?
"Randy Shannon's tough-as-nails approach will make the Orange Bowl a tough place for opponents to play in Miami's last season there." -- Hi, we're Virginia. Nice to meet you.
"1. Louisville will win the league because the similarity in offensive styles between departed coach Bobby Petrino and his successor, Steve Kragthorpe, has meant a smooth transition for quarterback Brian Brohm and Co." -- The company sold stock. The good news: it does like both 2007 teams have similar styles - losing.
"3. Rutgers tailback Ray Rice won't match last season's total of 1,794 yards." -- He has 1500 yards with games vs Pitt and Louisville to go. I guess theoretically he could wind up with 1,793, and the prediction would be right???
"5. UConn's first three opponents won a total of seven games last year, six of them by I-AA Maine. The Black Bears, Duke and Temple will allow a young team to get out the jitters. But they won't prepare the Huskies for playing at Pittsburgh in Game 4. That's the day we discover how much rebuilding coach Randy Edsall has completed." -- Yeah, about that.
"5. The new coaches will make an immediate impact.
Stanford's Jim Harbaugh will tick off somebody with his fresh mouth. Arizona State's Dennis Erickson will start 7-0 before things get dicey down the stretch." -- We get a partial DING... with ASU indeed starting 7-0. But dicey sounds a little strong. And perhaps Harbaugh said something about USC sucking?
"2. LSU will play USC in the BCS championship game
Tigers coach Les Miles will get his wish with a date against the Trojans in the Jan. 7 BCS National Championship Game in the Louisiana Superdome. After USC easily defeats the Tigers in front of LSU's home crowd, Miles will leave to become head coach at Michigan, replacing Lloyd Carr, who will retire after winning the Rose Bowl (and, of course, losing to Ohio State)." -- Probably the cream of the "crop" here. So wrong in so many ways.
We just love how USC has been so dominant.
And you get through the whole bit about Miles leaving to coach Michigan and you start to think there might be some hidden foresight hidden in there, until... BZZT. Maybe if you stretch the meaning of the word retire in new and creative ways!?!
"3. Nick Saban loses to LSU (but beats Auburn)
Saban's first season at Alabama will be a successful one, but the Crimson Tide won't come close to catching LSU in the SEC West. Alabama will lose twice in September and to LSU in November, but Saban will win the two games that matter most to Crimson Tide fans -- against Tennessee and Auburn." -- Mainly just props for this prediction... though I bet they didn't see how Alabama would blow the LSU game. But 2 Sept losses... check! Beating Tennessee... check! Beating Auburn... Me thinks I'll get back to you.
"4. The Egg Bowl loser gets poached
Ole Miss and Mississippi State will continue to struggle, and both will have losing records going into the Nov. 23 Egg Bowl" -- Or Mississippi State will be bowl eligible two weeks prior to the game. You were just so very close.
"5. The SEC East champion will have two losses
Only three times in the last 15 years has the SEC East champion had more than one loss. That number should increase. Kentucky and Vanderbilt will each upset at least one of the other four teams in the division -- and possibly more -- causing havoc in the East. LSU will defeat either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game in the Georgia Dome, possibly opening the door for Arkansas to receive a BCS at-large berth, along with the unbeaten Tigers." -- Major, major props to this prediction right here. He may've sold the Rebels short, but he knew what he was talking about in the east. Every east team already has two losses... and we could still end up with a winner with THREE SEC losses. *(Arkansas + BCS) = I'm sorry, you can have a makeup prediction instead*
"3. No division in college football has a better group of quarterbacks than the [Big 12] South. Who wins first-team All-Big-12? Graham Harrell of Texas Tech will have the best numbers, Colt McCoy of Texas will have the most wins, Bobby Reid of Oklahoma State will be the most electrifying, and Stephen McGee of Texas A&M just will get the job done. But my pick is from the North: Sam Keller of Nebraska. -- This Oklahoma fan just smiles. Then smiles some more. :-)
"4. Missouri will disappoint again. " -- How disappointing.
And in the HOT-OR-NOT: NOT -> "Big Ten. Outside of Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and reloading Ohio State, few Big Ten teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason. Michigan State and Minnesota have new coaches, and Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern continue to struggle. No wonder people are jumping off the Big Ten bandwagon." -- Yeah, um. I think they got the "power" teams mixed up. Illinois? Indiana? Holy moley, I just checked........ 10? bowl-eligible teams already!?! There's 32 bowl games and already 59 bowl-eligible teams in the NCAA. And 17 teams with 5 wins.
One final article worth reading: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AkScjH1YCGnU3eqLn239ogwcvrYF?slug=dw-croomed111307&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Now, I am an official. I spent the full 2006-07 school year officiating most every major sport... flag football, basketball, soccer, and softball namely).
I do have to have some affinity for leagues and organizations that stand up for their refs. To one degree, they have to. The CampusRec IM supervisor's would tend to always back their referees. And to really have any reality as an official, you need to know that foundation is behind you... that while coaches and players may question every move you make, you can stand firm because those putting on the game have your back.
But there is a point at which you have to be honest. Or at least not go over the top.
I didn't see the game.
I don't know how warranted the complaints were.
What I do see when I read the article, though is a league that is trying to be consumingly iron-fisted. I teach, and I envision a teacher who just can't get his (or her) class under control. You start raising the ante, throwing out threats, even. Half of them are just casual threats. But you do whatever you can to reign in people, because you can't have people being loose cannons.
But the HUGE problem I see is in the writing:
"The fine doubled the previous high by the league, levied twice before, against Kansas coach Mark Mangino three years ago and former Kansas State basketball coach Jim Wooldridge during the 2005-06 season."
And I immediately flash back to that disgusting game in 2004. Tough to forget.
It was the emergence of Kansas as a football team no longer to be simply overlooked entirely each week. They had a lot more work to do. But this is when they showed us they could play.
And they won that game.
The pass interference call on Kansas that negated a first down and forced them to punt was the difference between a huge upset of Texas and Texas marching back down the field to win.
And I never met a person who didn't believe that call was utter garbage.
And it's not just that it was a bad call.
It's that it stands out in my mind.
From three years ago.
Look, when a call really is bad... you have to apologize and maybe lighten up on the fines. Definitely restrain yourself from singling out the coach who got upset.
Yet here is an example of a conference wanting to come down hard by the letter of the law instead of the intent.
Yet the letter of the law itself is stupid.
That's like saying Oklahoma fans did not have the right to complain about the Oregon officiating.
Imagine if the Pac 10 had fined Oklahoma? Or if it had been a Big 12 game!?! Would they have ended up suspending Bob Stoops????
I'm not the only one who remembers this awful call from 2004, either. When so many people are scarred into saving it in long-use brain cells... it's a big deal.
And I think I may remember the Kansas State basketball deal, too. Was it against Oklahoma State perhaps?
Doesn't matter.
Conferences are going over the top.
Another example of letter-of-rule being employed over intent, and ruining the fun of the game: Kentucky's win over LSU, and the hard-line SEC rule about fans on the field.
Correct me if I'm totally wrong, but I'm guessing the officiating stank in the Texas Tech game?
It's sad that the Big 12 opting to fine a coach indicates to me the officiating stank.
Welcome to college football in this day and age.
By the way, want some laughs?
I stumbled back across ESPN's preseason college football prediction set. HILARIOUS! Highlights include:
"1. The Wisconsin-Michigan winner takes the Big Ten title
Both teams will be unbeaten going into their Nov. 10 showdown at Camp Randall Stadium."
And continuing to:
"The Badgers' biggest scare will come at Penn State on Oct. 13, and they'll squeak out a win at Ohio State on Nov. 3.
The Wolverines will survive early-season shootouts against Oregon and Penn State, then the defense will hit its stride. Michigan will beat Wisconsin by a field goal, then lose to Ohio State the following week, costing the Wolverines a spot in the BCS Championship Game." -- if by survive you mean be decimated and by Penn State you mean "!?!?!?!?!?!?", you're absolutely right. And look at that stout, undefeated, Wisconsin team. Wooowhee they are good ;-)
"the Hawkeyes will rebound to win their last six games and finish 10-2. Coach Kirk Ferentz will become a hot commodity again for a job in the NFL." -- Captain Kirk is garnering more attention from the NFL.
"5. Minnesota will be better than Michigan State"; "The Gophers will go bowling in 2007;" -- I hear leagues are forming fall the winter at the local AMF.
"Hurricanes, Seminoles will challenge Hokies for ACC crown" -- ...
"1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC
The Hokies will have one of the country's best defenses, led by linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and cornerback Brandon Flowers. The offense will be better, but it won't score enough points in Week 2 at LSU, which will be Virginia Tech's only loss of the season" -- Might well still happen... but just found it funny. A little too good?
"Randy Shannon's tough-as-nails approach will make the Orange Bowl a tough place for opponents to play in Miami's last season there." -- Hi, we're Virginia. Nice to meet you.
"1. Louisville will win the league because the similarity in offensive styles between departed coach Bobby Petrino and his successor, Steve Kragthorpe, has meant a smooth transition for quarterback Brian Brohm and Co." -- The company sold stock. The good news: it does like both 2007 teams have similar styles - losing.
"3. Rutgers tailback Ray Rice won't match last season's total of 1,794 yards." -- He has 1500 yards with games vs Pitt and Louisville to go. I guess theoretically he could wind up with 1,793, and the prediction would be right???
"5. UConn's first three opponents won a total of seven games last year, six of them by I-AA Maine. The Black Bears, Duke and Temple will allow a young team to get out the jitters. But they won't prepare the Huskies for playing at Pittsburgh in Game 4. That's the day we discover how much rebuilding coach Randy Edsall has completed." -- Yeah, about that.
"5. The new coaches will make an immediate impact.
Stanford's Jim Harbaugh will tick off somebody with his fresh mouth. Arizona State's Dennis Erickson will start 7-0 before things get dicey down the stretch." -- We get a partial DING... with ASU indeed starting 7-0. But dicey sounds a little strong. And perhaps Harbaugh said something about USC sucking?
"2. LSU will play USC in the BCS championship game
Tigers coach Les Miles will get his wish with a date against the Trojans in the Jan. 7 BCS National Championship Game in the Louisiana Superdome. After USC easily defeats the Tigers in front of LSU's home crowd, Miles will leave to become head coach at Michigan, replacing Lloyd Carr, who will retire after winning the Rose Bowl (and, of course, losing to Ohio State)." -- Probably the cream of the "crop" here. So wrong in so many ways.
We just love how USC has been so dominant.
And you get through the whole bit about Miles leaving to coach Michigan and you start to think there might be some hidden foresight hidden in there, until... BZZT. Maybe if you stretch the meaning of the word retire in new and creative ways!?!
"3. Nick Saban loses to LSU (but beats Auburn)
Saban's first season at Alabama will be a successful one, but the Crimson Tide won't come close to catching LSU in the SEC West. Alabama will lose twice in September and to LSU in November, but Saban will win the two games that matter most to Crimson Tide fans -- against Tennessee and Auburn." -- Mainly just props for this prediction... though I bet they didn't see how Alabama would blow the LSU game. But 2 Sept losses... check! Beating Tennessee... check! Beating Auburn... Me thinks I'll get back to you.
"4. The Egg Bowl loser gets poached
Ole Miss and Mississippi State will continue to struggle, and both will have losing records going into the Nov. 23 Egg Bowl" -- Or Mississippi State will be bowl eligible two weeks prior to the game. You were just so very close.
"5. The SEC East champion will have two losses
Only three times in the last 15 years has the SEC East champion had more than one loss. That number should increase. Kentucky and Vanderbilt will each upset at least one of the other four teams in the division -- and possibly more -- causing havoc in the East. LSU will defeat either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game in the Georgia Dome, possibly opening the door for Arkansas to receive a BCS at-large berth, along with the unbeaten Tigers." -- Major, major props to this prediction right here. He may've sold the Rebels short, but he knew what he was talking about in the east. Every east team already has two losses... and we could still end up with a winner with THREE SEC losses. *(Arkansas + BCS) = I'm sorry, you can have a makeup prediction instead*
"3. No division in college football has a better group of quarterbacks than the [Big 12] South. Who wins first-team All-Big-12? Graham Harrell of Texas Tech will have the best numbers, Colt McCoy of Texas will have the most wins, Bobby Reid of Oklahoma State will be the most electrifying, and Stephen McGee of Texas A&M just will get the job done. But my pick is from the North: Sam Keller of Nebraska. -- This Oklahoma fan just smiles. Then smiles some more. :-)
"4. Missouri will disappoint again. " -- How disappointing.
And in the HOT-OR-NOT: NOT -> "Big Ten. Outside of Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and reloading Ohio State, few Big Ten teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason. Michigan State and Minnesota have new coaches, and Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern continue to struggle. No wonder people are jumping off the Big Ten bandwagon." -- Yeah, um. I think they got the "power" teams mixed up. Illinois? Indiana? Holy moley, I just checked........ 10? bowl-eligible teams already!?! There's 32 bowl games and already 59 bowl-eligible teams in the NCAA. And 17 teams with 5 wins.
One final article worth reading: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AkScjH1YCGnU3eqLn239ogwcvrYF?slug=dw-croomed111307&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
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