Top 25 (Nov 19)

OK, I think I'm finally cooled down from that debacle of officiating called the Texas Tech game Saturday night. We lost that game... but yet again the refs took it away. For the first 42 minutes, we deserved to lose and I was ready to move on just as I did after the OU and UF losses. A loss is a loss.
But we came back with authority. We wanted that win... and honestly, we earned OT.
I don't know who to blame for the awful "not-a-td" call... I'm not quick to get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon... but 3 times in 3 years is absurd.

Anyways, time to move on.
I find it VERY awesome and funny that the BCS today addressed exactly what I had written about last week. In fact, if I want to talk conspiracy... who all is reading my Blog!?! First the Texas Tech deal... now the BCS one.
But hooray! The BCS has opted to expand the eligible team pool to 18 from 14 IN THE RARE POSSIBILITY THAT NOT ENOUGH TEAMS QUALIFY. *Grins*


Anyways, it's poll time:

1 Kansas 11-0 / win vs Iowa State || 0
2 LSU 10-1 / win @ Mississippi || 0
3 West Virginia 9-1 / win @ Cincinnati || +2
4 Arizona State 9-1 / OFF || +2
5 Missouri 10-1 / win @ Kansas State || +2
6 Ohio State 11-1 / win @ Michigan || +2
7 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Nevada || +2
8 Georgia 9-2 / win vs Kentucky || +2
9 Oregon 8-2 / loss @ Arizona || -6
10 Oklahoma 9-2 / loss (with officiating help :-)) @ Texas Tech || -6
11 Florida 8-3 / win vs FAU || 0
12 USC 8-2 / OFF || 0
13 Virginia Tech 9-2 / win vs Miami || 0
14 Boise State 10-1 / win vs Idaho || 0
15 Texas 9-2 / OFF || 0
16 Illinois 9-3 / win vs Northwestern|| +3
17 Virginia 9-2 / OFF || +1
18 Tennessee 8-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || -1
19 Connecticut 9-2 / win vs Syracuse || +2
20 Boston College 9-2 / win vs Clemson || 0
21 South Florida 8-3 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Clemson 8-2 / loss @ Boston College || -6
23 Wisconsin 9-3 / win @ Minnesota || -1
24 Cincinnati 8-3 / loss vs West Virginia || 0
25 Auburn 7-4 / OFF || NR

Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech

Fallen out: Penn State, Kentucky


///
Discussion:
Definitely continues to get murky at the bottom. Tough to drop Cincy when they played a close one... and teams near the top 25 all lost bad games. Cal lost their 5th in 6 games...... remember when we were really thinking about them as National Champion possibilities??? And Alabama lost to ULM.
So as disappointing as a weekend as I had all-around in college football (in the early games, I was rooting for Michigan, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State... then rooting for Mississippi and NC State... and of course Oklahoma)... it could be much much worse.



-- The most interesting thing to me is now definitely becoming the Hawaii/Boise/WAC situation. People are FINALLY starting to murmur about Boise making it back to the BCS... all I can say is about time. Out of all the games to come next week, this one may be the most critical and thus interesting (ok, UConn/UWV is pretty big on my radar, too) all around... and they are playing some game in Kansas City?
It's starting to become nervous for the WAC representative-hopeful. Hawaii seems to be treading water... winning, but never gaining any real ground, even as they beat decent teams. This is the first week they've moved up in the BCS since their off week back on Oct 20th. I guess they should stop playing. It's quite ironic that they move up in the weekend that DOESN'T have all the huge upsets!
Obviously, it was another game they probably should have lost. But I've learned to give Hawaii a little more respect. And they made it through the minefield of weak opponents and injuries to Boise. About as close a call as they could have, but still.
On the other hand, Boise did fall in the BCS this week... and when you play Idaho, that's not shocking. They will get a bit of help this week... but it's going to be tough to make up a lot of ground here. If they beat Hawaii convincingly, all people will remember is Hawaii's near misses. Perhaps if they sneak one out they have the best shot of gaining some serious ground. But the computers aren't going to do them a lot of favors for beating a Hawaii team with one of the worst SOS' out there.
I thought Hawaii and Boise could only gain, since they were so low in the computers (particularly Hawaii... especially since they had slightly better teams ahead on the schedule). Boise's desperation may come down to people remembering them from last year. And they can proclaim they want to prove it wasn't a fluke. But, then, will the big boys want to risk letting them win 2 in a row!?!
The biggest disaster left is a realistic one... that Hawaii wins, then loses to Washington. How interesting that Washington could single-handedly dash the WAC's hopes!?! They are the sole loss for Boise already, back in September. But Hawaii gets them at home. Then again, Hawaii hasn't exactly cruised through their schedule... so I doubt it's a cakewalk.
Then we get into whether the winner of the contest, barring that disaster loss, will get into the BCS. I was sure a month ago Hawaii was set... and we've only had an extra heaping of upsets to savor since then... and yet, here we are, the WAC winner will be teetering over the edge.
The best news is that the pool is indeed slim this year for the BCS. The WAC can thank the Big 12 and SEC if, indeed, it does slip in despite being ranked below 12th.
One big door that opened last week slammed shut this week, as Ohio State sewed up the Big 10 with a win and kept a Michigan team from possibly unlocking the "guaranteed 16" clause. Of course a few possibilities have cropped up. Here's the breakdown of the possibilities of a team winning their conference and falling outside the top 12... or particularly the top 16:

Big East - pretty much no shot at this point. If UConn (currently 20) wins, I think they end up right around 12... as they have a lot of room to move up in every poll. If WVU wins next week, even if they lose obscenely to Pittsburgh the final weekend, I doubt they fall out of the top 12.
SEC - strangely, their hope here actually lies in Georgia I think... but I doubt they get it. If Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU to win the title, they should move up well from their current spot (18th). LSU, even with a bad loss to Arkansas next week, would be fine if they won the following weekend. The only hope I see of interest is if UT, Georgia, AND LSU lose this week... then Georgia beats LSU in another ugly game. But basically this conference doesn't offer much help either.
ACC - Despite having their three possible teams being 8, 14, and 16... this conference looks decently good to have a top 12er. If the winner is the winner of the coastal from next weeks UVa/VT game, it's a lock. The WAC hope squarely lies in a BC loss to Miami this week (which I seriously doubt), and then to respond by winning next week.
Pac 10 - With 2 conference games left, with all three of the competing teams still with a weak game left (Arizona and two UCLA's), it could get a little messy. But with their teams at 6, 9, and 11, it'd be tough to go too bad, wouldn't it!?! Really to get below 12th, Arizona State would have to lose both and USC would have to lose to UCLA... and Oregon would have to lose one as well. Sorry WAC. Just beat Washington, or else the Pac 10 will have totally ended you.
Big 12 - Only shot here is the South winner from an ugly final weekend coming back out and beating the great North winner. OU could lose to Oklahoma State..... and Texas could lose to TAMU. I've been told OSU is mathematically eliminated. So you could end up with Oklahoma coming off another loss eeking one out in San Antonio. That's really the only hope there.

So as you can see, not many doors at all anymore for the WAC to auto-qualify. It's dicey to think they might make the top 12... and it's pretty unlikely now that a big-conference winner will fall outside the top 12... with a few spots still to be vacated by the USC/ASU loser (unless they win the conference... then Oregon and the winner would probably fall out), and quite possibly one or two Big 12 teams.
It all comes down, as I said earlier, to the at-large bid. And, honestly, I still have to think they'll get that.
The rule change IS actually interesting.
Because the most unfair thing in history could happen.
The BCS could come up short of the required number... unlocking 2 to 4 more teams... and they could theoretically skip over the WAC team in the top 16!
I really don't believe that's possible, though. The BCS isn't stupid. They've been sued before.
And besides, they've got an exciting rematch with Oklahoma (UGGGG) to toss around.
But it's going to be razor close.
If Hawaii doesn't win, then lose to Washington. Otherwise it'll all be for not.


-- OK, so Kansas and Missouri will, when all is said and done, quite possibly be the highest ranked game of the year (by this I mean the final records of the two teams involved) outside of the National Championship game (or maybe even including it!). Who would have thought that!?! *sheepishly raises hand* (take a look back at my very first poll back on October 7th! I was really interested in Kansas' obscene point differential in their first 4 cupcake games. Yes, I suggested no less than probably 5 teams could be dark horses... but I was on the Kansas bandwagon early all season. Way to go me! ;-)
Anyways, beyond their point total early in the season, there is one other thing that really has stood out to me this year about them... and that's their ability to consistently beat good teams on the road. It was something Florida did last year (sans Auburn, a close game... but they beat Georgia, they beat FSU, etc). It's something even the likes of LSU and WVU haven't been able to do this year.
And the stunning thing is how brutal their road schedule has been. They've had SEVEN home games this year and only 4 real road games. But those four are som pretty strong Big 12 teams; Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They aren't upper-echelon, but have proven to be a solid second tier. And they are rewarded with Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home... the worst 3 teams in the league. Their cupcake OOC sched really was everything to them this year... they probably would've never got the ball rolling this year if not for those tuneups... but they have had to continuously prove they are the best out there by beating every good team they've played on the road. To look at their low SOS and banish them just isn't being fair. And they wind it all up with a neutral-site game against Missouri!?!
It will definitely be interesting to see what type of crowd shows up this weekend. And it's amazing to think that the winner of this game is one game from the National Championship.
And then Missouri. I've really forgotten about them since they were handled by Oklahoma. Yet here they are, doing what Oklahoma wasn't able to. And they've quietly looked good too.
All I know is this one is a surprise matchup of the year that's gotta be one for the ages!



-- The other sorrow this weekend, besides OU losing, has to be the daggum SEC. Kentucky finally failed for me at the most critical time... and UF is eliminated.
At the same time, the gates on the freefalling season finally seemed to close up to make a bottom floor.
What is the lowest possible BCS team now to reach the NC game? And the worst possible game?
Worst scenario:
LSU and Georgia lose this weekend badly, likely eliminating them.
The winner of the KC battle gets shellacked by the South winner next weekend, eliminating them.
West Virginia loses again.
Arizona State loses again.
VTech and Oregon both lose again.

Wow, is it still possible Oklahoma could make the NC game!?!
SPEW.
The problem is, I don't think it is. One bottom-lock is definitely Ohio State. The other is probably Kansas if nothing else. The most they can have now is 1 loss, which itself is amazing! Even if their loss is awful, 1 loss will be tough to penalize that badly.
But it's amazing to think it could. Like what if Missouri wins 80-0? And then loses 63-3? *scratches head*
I guess if you want to be absurd, the absolute bottom-lock would be #17 Illinois. They are the first team down the list beyond Ohio State that doesn't still have the chance to really lose badly.
But really the bottom of the barrel left is probably Georgia. We'll know in a week.
But it's always been good to play "what if" this year.



-- I saw the ultimate suggestion tonight... and a VERY possible... make that probable, game! The Zook Bowl!
It could happen one of two ways: #1 is the easiest... the Florida Citrus Bowl.
#2 is just as intriguing... a BCS bowl. If three more teams fall out of the top 14... or if the teams that move up cause there to not be enough "pool" BCS teams... it's a good chance. Illinois would almost certainly be the pick if that happened. Tennessee winning the SEC title (a good possibility in my opinion) would be the perfect catalyst to it all. Then we'd just need something out of the ordinary from happening... particularly a top team unexpectedly not winning their conference (specifically if UConn beat UWV). And if it doesn't happen, the Citrus Bowl (Capital One... blah blah blah) is still a good chance... though the BCS would have to take Georgia over UF (also a good possibility, if LSU wins). So if Tennessee (and LSU) win this weekend, it definitely helps the matchup along in probability! And I'd love it!


-- And my last bit of interest is in West Virginia's run of recent. Like Missouri, they've been a team I've basically overlooked since their one loss...... even as I predicted them in the NC game a long ways back vs. South Carolina.
But this team is rolling. In the last month they beat a good Mississippi State (which beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama), then crushed Rutgers, beat Louisville, and then held off Cincinnati on the road. People may think those teams aren't the top ones, especially the first three... but I definitely think people are overlooked how potent they still are. I could still see Louisville or Rutgers beating anyone. Meanwhile the USF loss, after they had that bad stretch, has started to look squarely respectable again... and the team is together... and don't forget White was hurt in the USF game. Honestly, UWV has to be my top choice for nationally champion at this point. I would most love to see a Kansas-UWV battle (as much for the geeky "prestige" as anything)... but I would also enjoy LSU or Missouri in the game, and think any game involving those 4 would be decent. Not so sure about ASU or OSU. Thankfully I don't have to worry about them too much.
It should be an interesting January, for once ;-)


-- Bowl projections (as much for me to consider the interesting possibilities as you to really take stock in!)
National Championship - Kansas* vs. West Virginia*
Fiesta Bowl - Georgia vs Illinois
Sugar Bowl - Tennessee* vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech* vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - USC* vs Ohio State*


Exciting!

Have a good one!