So I did a detailed bowl analysis by conference tonight... and here it is!!!
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
ACC: 7 eligible, 1 will be, 1 more possible > Miami @ BC, Maryland @ NCSU
Big East: 5 eligible, 1 more poss > Rutgers @ Louisville
Big 10: 10 eligible
Big 12: 8 eligibile, 1 poss > KState @ Fresno
CUSA: 6 eligible
MAC: 4 eligible, 1 poss > Miami OH @ Ohio
MWC: 5 eligible (man, Wyoming's season fell apart)
Pac 10: 5 eligible, 2 poss > Arizona @ Arizona State, UCLA with Oregon & USC left
SEC: 10 eligible, 1 poss > Wake @ Vandy
Sun Belt: 1 eligible, 3 poss > Ark State @ USM, ULM @ ULL, FAU has FIU and Troy still
WAC: 3 eligible, 1 will be, with 1 more poss > Nevada @ SJSU, then LTech @ Nevada
Independents: 2 eligible
Total: 68 auto, 11 more poss. I'd say about 7 of those make it.
32 bowl games -> 64 teams qualify.
Hmm, didn't know this: "NCAA bylaws stipulate any team finishing 6-6 can only be selected to fill a conference tie-in bowl slot once all other available conference teams are chosen."
ACC: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
Big East: 5 tie ins (5 filled)
Big 10: 7 tie ins (3 leftover)
Big 12: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
CUSA: 6 tie ins (6 filled)
MAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
MWC: 4 tie ins (1 leftover)
Pac 10: 6 tie ins (maybe 1 leftover, but I say it's unlikely)
SeC: 8 tie ins (2 leftover)
Sun Belt: 1 tie in (1 filled)
WAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
Navy: signed to the Poinsettia Bowl
W Ken: not listed on the site I'm looking at, so perhaps not eligible?
So unless my info is wrong, there are no empty slots except the BCS bowl at-larges. That's 4 spots. That should give a 9th SEC team a spot... and probably an extra WAC team... but if the other two go to Pac 10 and Big 12, it may open up 2 slots to heavy contest.
So missing:
ACC: 1 possibly (either the NCSU/Maryland winner, or Miami, depending on season series)
Big East: Louisville is basically out unless they get a 2nd BCS team.
Big 10: Iowa and Northwestern are out. The rest of the teams have 7+ wins, so I bet they get an at-large.
Big 12: If KState wins, it comes down to Colorado, KState, and possibly OSU to the odd team out.
CUSA: good to go. Yay UCF!
MAC: Only 1 team with over 6 wins. I doubt they get a 4th. I sure HOPE they don't get a 4th. Awful conference this year.
MWC: If TCU beats SDSt, then all will be 7+ wins... and probably snag another at-large.
Pac 10: doubtful to go over... but 1 wins get them their required 6. But they still have an open slot assuming a 2nd BcSer.
SEC: So it does come down to Alabama and South Carolina. If both win... all 10 have 7, and then it gets messy. If neither win, it's 9 assuming they get a BCS at-large.
Sun Belt: good to go, Troy
WAC: I say they get 4... of course dependent upon Hawaii/BS qualifying for the BCS. They only have 2 teams over 6 wins, but could end up with 4 still. So theoretically could sneak in 4 anyways. And won't get 5.
Independents: looks like Navy has their spot, and WKen isn't being considered, according to the data I read.
So the extra spots go to a Big 10 team, an SEC team, a WAC team (if Hawaii/Boise make it), and a giant toss up (MWC looking best, then maybe the SEC if a good day tomorrow).
But of course, as wikipedia's article notes, "The Independence Bowl, for instance, only has loose ties with the Big 12 and SEC, although any Division I FBS team may be chosen to play in the bowl".
My source for the tie-ins is some ordinary page at http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/2007/bowls.html.
Anyways, it's interesting to consider. And that teams slike Alabama and South Carolina could be left home after such amazing early seasons, while Cal, losers of 5 of their last 6, is set to go with 6 wins. Should be some SPECTACULAR bowls this year, though, with the huge mass of teams that were title contenders at one point this season!
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