Yeah, it's Christmas and all, and as one of the Lord's I love this holiday (and of course I always have, including well before my salvation).
But it's something even more wonderful to me and this blog....... bowl season.
It's actually interesting, because I really don't get as worked up over the bowls themselves as you might expect. I probably watch 3 or 4 a year casually and commonly won't even make note of the results.
But that's besides the point.
You see, I'm NOT into the BCS just because I love the bowls. I think their tradition is awesome, and somehow they just give this essence to college football that is unmatchable. But just as much, it's because college football forces each game to receive an unparalleled interest.
In a playoff, we would just avoid the thought of a boring matchup like maybe Kansas and Virginia Tech, and instead make a bracket prediction or think ahead to possible second round matchups. And non-playoff bowls would be reduced to the interest level of the early rounds of the NIT... nil.
As I said, many years I don't have that much excitement over the actual bowls... though just having them around sets the atmosphere for this time of year. Perhaps, though, it's because I've followed the entirety of college football more closely on a week-to-week basis than I have in a while that makes me extremely excited this year.
It's amazing how many great games there are down in the depths.
I should point out, I am 100% satisfied with the national championship game. While I ranked LSU behind Oklahoma and Georgia the prior week, deep down I definitely believed LSU to be the better team.... and indeed the best, as I think they'll win as most people do, though I expect Ohio State to put up more of a dog fight than last year.
I'm also quite happy with the results for other teams. I was pleasantly surprised when the name West Virginia was revealed, as I was sure Oklahoma would play Kansas or Hawaii. Probably the BCS game of the year. Many complain that's why the BCS is messed up. Says you. There are some more interesting tournament games in each round, even among equally seeded teams. Some games are just more interesting. What's wrong with that? Of course Rich Rodriguez leaving will dull the game a little, but I'll live.
Hawaii-Georgia is a very interesting little game. Between a team that was on the National Championship bubble and the little engine that could. I don't think Hawaii will hang with Georgia. But what if they could?
VT-Kansas, as mentioned, is dull. VT is getting way too much love. They haven't done anything of note all year. They won the ACC. The pugly ACC. Kansas, in two weeks went from my favorite team ever, to the biggest pretender in a long time. Get dismantled by Missouri who then gets dissected by Oklahoma, and that happens.
Still they deserved to play 100x more than Missouri. If you can't beat Oklahoma twice, too bad.
The only fair option would be to axe the 2 teams per conference rule...... but they don't want to to do that..... which is fine by me, honestly. I can definitely see the merits of the rule. It keeps the politics from taking over the entire deal. It keeps the money more even, while still allowing a conference performing more consistently at a supreme level to take home some additional reward. It may leave a third deserving conference team out..... but too bad! Again: if you get it done on the field, you get what you deserve. If not, sometimes you'll win out, sometimes you won't, deal with it. Same deal as the title game. If you dominate the entire year, you will be playing the last game of the season.
At the same time, many are disgusted by the Rose Bowl. It does admittedly appear one sided, and USC should win easily. But Illinois beat OSU, what makes anyone think that if Illinois doesn't win, OSU could have? Maybe that's really the deal..... the Big 10 is the shame of college football. No one thinks they are even an ounce of good.
And I'll admit, they've earned the rep fair and square. Ohio State last January. Michigan. And somewhat even more stark, Minnesota's pure awfulness. The Big 10's OOC record is pretty poor..... except when beating up on the MAC... which only shows the 2007 MAC is far-and-away the WORST conference in college football in a few years.
Of course the bigger complaints by those in the know is that Arizona State didn't a BCS bowl berth... and the blame lies squarely on the format of the Rose Bowl leading Illinois to get in.
Fair enough, Arizona State almost certainly had the better rap sheet.
And the Rose Bowl indeed isn't that interesting this year (yet. I bet I will warm to it quickly in about 10 days!).
It brings up a reminder of my slight dislike of one aspect of bowls...... the setup conference matchups in every single bowl, particularly when certain conferences basically never meet (for instance the Big 12 and ACC... which at most meet once a year (this year Virginia and Texas Tech). More sadly, the second tier bowls are always the same few teams, and take away ever having, say, a top Big 10 team playing a top Big East team, save in the BCS.
But all the same, that's what the bowls are, isn't it? A little quirky. And that's why they are fun. I feel like Michigan and Florida have played 50 times in the Citrus Bowl (even when this is only like the second meeting), and it appears to be a very lopsided game. But it's fun!
Stick with me for a second.
Like I said before, the fact we focus on a game like this is really the whole foundation to what makes college football exciting.
In a playoff, we might well have the same game. But it'd be over before we even thought about it. And it'd be played the same weekend as a long list of other games. The bowl season allows us to pay a bit of extra attention to teams that normally wouldn't see it. Teams that have had solid years, many of them, but fallen short. It gives teams time in the spotlight. It's kind of like trotting the teams out slowly through a beauty pageant line. Two at a time. And we get the added bonus of seeing one more time whether our opinions of them are fair.
And again, while there are 40+ college football games each weekend, not like the visibility of the bowl system... the current system still makes each week mean so much. Every opponent is focused upon. Every week a vital game. Each week a piece to a puzzle that you have to put together perfectly to get it right. Even in a year like this year... where 20 teams probably lost a game they "couldn't afford to lose" and still ended up in the NC hunt... and the great quote Thanksgiving weekend "Arkansas has killed LSU's national title dreams"... there's still that big looming reality... you have to have one of the best two teams in the country to play for the title. You must be the creme of the crop. And so instead of each win and each loss just being some notes on a comparison chart... like in college basketball, where we have Bracketology, with key wins and losses listed along with all kinds of other stats to try and muddle through which teams are the more deserving .650 teams on the year... instead of not really knowing how each game will impact you, and a loss not really meaning too much, in college football, you know you've given up your right if you lose just one. Once you lose a game it's in fate's hands and your "body of work" doesn't mean nearly as much as what other teams do. In college basketball it's all about which big wins you have. In college football, that doesn't mean nearly as much as how many losses you have.
Back to my point: the Rose Bowl isn't perfect. None of this is perfect. I'm hearing Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Georgia fans whining "why not us". Honestly none of you deserved it nearly as much as LSU... and you gave up your right to complain when you lost that first game... then nailed it to the wall when you lost your second. The game is DEFINITELY the right game. I was of the opinion it should be LSU-OSU as conference championship Saturday wound to a close. But even if you aren't, you know it's the system we play in, everyone plays by it. It's like complaining about life not being fair because we die. And life is a pretty good system. But when all you can do is blame the system because of your team's shortcomings during the year, your arguments are empty.
A friend told me that based upon a combination of user simulations and stats, Clemson was the team picked to win a 16 team playoff bracket.
Clemson!?!
How disgusting!
People wrote off Georgia (I think VERY unfairly) out of the national title discussion because they didn't win (or play in) their conference title game (Who cares!?! We are looking for the best two teams. Why should a loss to Tennessee be 10x more damning than any other loss. LSU didn't win the West so much as Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State lost to each other and East teams enough to let LSU come on top. If Arkansas won close games against Alabama and Auburn........ then LSU would apparently suddenly be just as undeserving of a title shot? And I even hear people say Missouri deserves a BCS game more than Kansas, because at least they played in their conference title game. Well, I am totally agreed that an H2H win means much more than any other game...... but they is a limit on how much it means (Stanford won't be playing in the Rose Bowl, thankfully). Missouri got shut down two other times. They "had their chance" at top teams, and floundered. KU got one shot, and it's time they get another. There is too much emphasis placed on winning your conf title game. I know where it comes from, and I tend to agree in retrospect that Oklahoma didn't deserve in in 2003. But that's done. Had USC lost another game, there would've been no discussion. Oklahoma and LSU would have been the best two teams. All these "rules" people seem to think should streamline the decision making process to find the best team are subjective. People used the same rule (and some others) to discount Michigan from playing OSU again last year. What if UF lost to South Carolina as well? And any other contender lost another game too. There is a point where it's not a good argument anymore. So you can't use "conference winner" or "played a weak schedule" or "they had their chance to beat X team" as a doctrinal rule to how things should be done. There is limitations to how far it is taken, and different people will take it to different extremes. Just as people argue that everyone is going to have a different idea of religion and try to suggest "to each his own" (don't get me started 8-))... so too shouldn't that then be recognized in college football. There is no objectivity with all these supposed definitive rules people want to put up.)
Anyways, people wrote off Georgia for not winning the SEC... but want to put Clemson into a playoff with a fair shot at the title? Blech.
As to the Rose Bowl?
In a lot of ways, I wouldn't be too upset by a minimally invasive new playoff system that would restore the previous bowl matchups. This year's Rose is an argument FOR the bowls not against them. It's the BCS' fault that Illinois is the Big 10 representative... Ohio State won the conference by 2 games. If anything ever happens to change the current system, I can only hope it's something like a plus one deal that restores the bowl system entirely... including axing the BCS.
Or perhaps only restore the Rose Bowl, and keep the Coalition.
That would at least GUARANTEE 3 teams have a shot at the title... 4 in some years... and would force every team to prove themselves an additional time before becoming the champion.
This year, if we restored the Coalition and added a plus one, it would mean Ohio State played USC in the Rose Bowl, and then Virginia Tech played LSU in the Sugar Bowl. If Ohio State won, it would get the winner of LSU-VT. Otherwise Oklahoma or other teams down the line would get a shot.
But again, this emphasizes to me that the ONLY way to add a playoff is by adding a dynamic system. Using some sort of objective qualification. Or something determined subjectively before the bowl games (a vote or something). Some years, there are just two top teams.
Some years there are 4 or 5 that might have a fair voice in the discussion.
If you want a playoff, set up one to work with that.
It would satisfy my dictum that college football remain unique in it's format, as well as being more statistically right.
But I'm happy with how it is now. Again, the words "it isn't perfect, but it's the best we got do come to mind". People don't like the argument that the regular season IS the playoff... put off by how teams supposedly were knocked out but then found their way back in. The phrase maybe sounds blind and trivializing.
But once last time... life... college football... aren't perfect. They are battles to do the best we can with the situation. The Bills season ended in the snow of Cleveland last week. The Giants lost Jeremy Shockey, how will they respond? Denver's season turned on a set of unlikely plays against Chicago. It's a game between two teams to determine who is the best. Each quarter is 1/4th of the overall score. They don't play 55 minutes, then change the score for one final showdown.
So let the season of joy and cheer begin... Merry bowl season everyone!!!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Top 25 (Nov 25)
Clearer or cloudier?
That's the question after the losses by 4 more top 10 teams (I think we need to check historical records on # of losses by top 10 and top 5 teams!), including #1 LSU and #2 Kansas (#1 and #2 hadn't lost the same weekend since 1997, now it finally has happened twice this year...... could it happen again next week!?!) (and I wonder when the last time is that #1 and #2 both lost at home (at least technically, when it comes to Kansas)). Oregon losing also continues the "momentum" theme for this year, and knocks them and similarly coming-up-short Arizona State well back... and also confuses things further.
First, let's go to the poll, though:
1 Missouri 11-1 / win @ Kansas || +4
2 West Virginia 10-1 / win vs UConn || +1
3 Ohio State 11-1 / OFF || +3
4 Hawaii 11-0 / win vs Boise State || +3
5 Georgia 10-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || +3
6 Kansas 11-1 / loss vs Missouri || -5
7 Oklahoma 10-2 / win vs Oklahoma St || +3
8 LSU 10-2 / loss vs Arkansas || -6
9 Virginia Tech 10-2 / win @ Virginia || +4
10 USC 9-2 / win @ Arizona State || +2
11 Florida 9-3 / win vs FSU || 0
12 Arizona State 9-2 / loss vs USC || -8
13 Illinois 9-3 / OFF || +3
14 Tennessee 9-3 / win @ Kentucky || +4
15 Boston College 10-2 / win vs Miami || +5
16 South Florida 8-3 / win @ Pittsburgh || +5
17 Clemson 9-3 / win @ South Carolina || +5
18 Boise State 10-2 / loss @ Hawaii || -4
19 Virginia 9-3 / loss vs Virginia Tech || -2
20 Cincinnati 9-3 / win @ Syracuse || +4
21 Wisconsin 9-3 / OFF || +2
22 Auburn 8-4 / win vs Alabama || +3
23 Oregon 8-3 / loss @ UCLA || -14
24 Texas 9-3 / loss @ TAMU || -9
25 Arkansas 8-4 / win @ LSU || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Wake Forest, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, BYU, UConn, Oregon St, Utah, Penn St, Rutgers, Florida State, Mississippi State, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Fresno State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, Bowling Green
Fallen out: Connecticut
That's the first time I've ever wanted to move a team INTO the top 25 after a loss..... I think. I almost did, too, but had to give the nod to Arkansas.
So first things first, let's talk title picture. It's, very slowly, clearing into focus. Missouri still isn't terribly exciting to me, and I think Missouri was in a lose-lose situation tonight in that, if they won (as they did), everyone would think Kansas was just a giant fraud... and if they lost, they'd be done. And Kansas playing poorly the whole game hurt even more. The funniest thing is, except for a long string of slightly poor occurrences throughout the game, Kansas might have won that game.
Still, Missouri can't lose much. And Chase Daniel is suddenly everyone's Heisman winner over Tim Tebow...... which I think is 110% RIDICULOUS! Tebow 1, McFadden 2 looked like the easy ballot, especially after watching both work this weekend. Tebow once again showed this weekend his amazing talent at both the run and the pass with spectacular plays at both early in the game... but as Gary Danielson said, because 99% of the nation wasn't watching (because of that AMAZING finish to Kentucky-Tennessee (I didn't want to watch FSU-UF either!!!), he may be penalized. And to just add to the insanity, he set the record for rushing tds in a year by a quarterback! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?! More than the Vince Young's and Eric Crouch's of this world!?! While tossing in 29 passing touchdowns (he was tied for 10th in the NCAA coming into this weekend) to go with the 22 on the ground!?!
Daniel may have turned it up in the biggest game tonight, but he threw only 1 td and 2 picks against Oklahoma.
Yes, only 3 previous qbs with more than 2 losses have won the Heisman. But to blame Timmy T for the three losses is absurd. Three close losses in the SEC. 2 on the road to teams that'll be in the top 10 this weekend. And the offense never let them down in those games, in which they still scored 17, 24, and 30!?! Tebow had 8 tds to 2 int in those 3 games. Sorry, I like the Big 12, and I think Daniel has well-earned a spot at the table in New York... but you can't help but give it to a quarterback who has broken records, had breathtaking passes and runs, and led his team to a successful season in the brutal SEC (did you see those two games this weekend!!?!... the conference went 2-2 this weekend vs the ACC with 2 good wins, a close loss for South Carolina, and a poor game by Vandy). I have a pile of Florida State fans who will admit this man should win the Heisman. Don't forget how much an impact he had on UF's title run last season, too! Give the man the trophy. Invite Daniel, McFadden, White, and probably Brennan.
Anyways, oh yeah, title game.
I've gotta be honest... I am very confident Oklahoma wins next weekend.
And hopefully that'll quell all this Heisman jazz as an added bonus. They showed today how much Bradford means. And the game is in San Antonio. I say Oklahoma obliterates. I hope so.
If that's the case..... the team I despised playing gets in... and I'm not so sure that's an awful thing anymore. Yeah, amazing, the Buckeyes may be right back in the game. And the taste of a decisive victory over Michigan continues to taste good to end the season. Kansas should fall out of the title picture (though I bet the computers prop them up further than they should).
Virginia Tech looked SPECTACULAR this weekend in their win over UConn. They look ready to play, and honestly are still my pick to win the NC, with Ohio State being a close second (sorry Missouri, I'm not buying... and I've been the quiet champion of Kansas and you guys all year).
But the HUGE question is, just in case: who gets into the title game if, by some odd disaster, Pittsburgh somehow wins next week in Morgantown (I think that's downright impossible, but this year, you never know I suppose)?
If disaster does somehow happen, I think we may end up with a very overlooked disaster by the BCS. And I'm desperately hoping that just doesn't happen.
Because if WVU did lose, we'd end up with a 4 team battle for the NC, and it'd be a pretty decent discussion. The 4 teams I think have very legit claims if that happens:
Georgia - looking pretty as the best two loss team, and now doesn't have to play next week. Does that help or hurt? I have to go with help, but we'll definitely see.
Oklahoma - if Oklahoma does knock off Missouri decisively, it will bring up discussion, and the numbers will get close. How do Colorado and Texas Tech on the road for the losses and a pair of wins over Missouri along with a Texas in hand compare to losses to South Carolina (at home) and Tennessee on the road (blowout), with victories over Florida, Auburn, Kentucky... and Troy!?! It's a VERY good discussion. Does the later loss cost them more? And can I have Jon Bible's home address if it does (he did the KU-MU game tonight... and got at least one call wrong in the game)?
Kansas - it is going to be so intriguing to see where they end up after this week. The scoreboard makes it look like they played better than they did....... but even I turned the game off after halftime. They are done, with one loss (compared to the two for OU and Georgia). The computers won't assault them too badly. How bad to the people? Do they give them too much benefit of the doubt for having only lost to the #1 team at a neutral site by 6?!? It'll be VERY interesting!!! Will people rise up what they and I now agree would be a giant travesty... Kansas playing in the title game? An untested team: fine. A team that was tested once and dissected once: ridiculous! Prediction if they did get in: all time rating low.
Hawaii - THIS IS THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY DESERVES THE NOD IN MY BOOK. Perhaps they are just a new Kansas, but they have turned an awful start into a stellar finish, and really run through some pretty meaty teams. That's if they beat Washington next week. I also wonder very much how much Hawaii moves up. I'm guessing they only pass BC (and of course Texas), which is a real shame. Gotta believe they deserve to be above a 3-loss Florida team at least. But beat Washington (a good team), then we'll talk.
And honestly this list leaves out four also deserving teams: Virginia Tech (who might actually end up the numerical victor, but definitely wouldn't deserve it, haven lost ugly games to BC and especially LSU, and never looking dominant), USC (oh yeah, them... if they win next week, they actually are secretly on quite a beautiful roll (oh if they hadn't lost to Arizona State... they would actually be there now, at worst right behind OSU)), LSU (probably the best of the two loss teams, but having lost so late, probably falls too far), and West Virginia (South Florida and Pitt are an ugly two, but they would have two losses and have won some very defining games. Anyone else wondering where Florida would be had they not lost one of their three? I know I am! Would they be above Georgia? How about Ohio State!?!?! Hmmmm, one can think for a long time!
Updated BCS Discussion
Okey dokey, so now the bowl picture is a little clearer. FINALLY a second team clinched a BCS bowl birth today... most likely Georgia (honestly, there's no way Florida gets it..... unless Illinois gets one, then maybe a bowl will consider it... but Georgia is going to end up too highly ranked, honestly (quite possibly even top 4)).
Meanwhile, though, the Pac 10 picture got turned upside down. We were looking at the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 cleaning up three of the at-large spots... but the Pac 10 is excruciating danger now. Arizona State still represents an outside shot... but Oregon is done. A loss next weekend by USC or Arizona State finishes it off for good, and further blurs the BCS.
Also basically certain now: the Big East only gets 1 BCS team.
Also, I'm now quite confident the Big 12 has locked up a second berth.
So BCS breakdown:
Clearness -
SEC - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of LSU-TENNESSEE and one of Georgia/Florida/LSU, almost certainly Georgia)
Big 12 - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of OU-Missouri) and either loser or Kansas, probably Kansas.
Big East - West Virginia only
Murkiness -
ACC - Qualifies winner of BC-VT... but does loser stay in the top 14... or does Virginia somehow creep back in? If VT wins, it looks near impossible... unless they must expand the at-large field as now being discussed.
Pac 10 - Qualifies conference winner (USC if they win, ASU with a win and USC loss, Oregon maybe if both teams lose and they win). If USC and ASU both win, that should bring 2 berths. But if they don't, it's shaky.
Big 10 - OHIO STATE is in. Illinois' picture is getting more pretty by the day.
Wac - Hawaii is right on the border of an auto-qualify by getting into top 12. Will not have any help by the top 16 conference winner rule. But actually looks most likely because of the three conferences above. If they win.
If Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and Oregon lose next weekend.... boy I haven't the foggiest about that last bid! Boston College/Virginia would be my best guess.
Predicted BCS games:
National Title Game - West Virginia vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Illinois vs USC
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs Arizona State
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Hawaii
That would require Hawaii sticking in the top 12 somehow even though BC probably jumps up. Basically it requires them to be ahead of VT, a tough proposition. But we shall see. Not the most exciting games.
Updated Large Bowl Picture
So now we can clean up the post from yesterday a bit.
ACC: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
Big East: 5 eligible, 5 tie-ins 0 6-6 teams (Louisville could become one, but won't go bowling)
Big 10: 10 eligible, 7 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Big 12: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
CUSA: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins
MAC: 5 eligible, 3 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams (1 is Miami (OH) which plays for title next week)
MWC: 5 eligible, 4 tie-ins, no 6-6 teams
Pac 10: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team and 1 more possible to reach 6-6
SEC: 10 eligible, 8 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Sun Belt: 3 eligible, 1 tie-in, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team
WAC: 3 (will be 4) eligible, 3 tie-ins, will be 1 6-6 team
Indep: Navy in, Western Kentucky not legal yet.
70 eligible teams (will be at least 71, as much as 73)... 64 spots.
So which 7-9 teams get left home?
Well the only empty slots possible are the 4 at-large BCS teams. The SEC will eat up one of those slots. Leaving three. The Big 12 2nd BCS game will open up one at-large bowler. If the Big 10 or WAC get a second BCS team, they will eat a second at-large bowler within their conference. If the ACC gets a second BCS, it will open a second at-large slot. Finally, the Pac 10 could go either way, with 2 BCSers and an empty slot, or 1 BCSer and 7 eligible teams leaving one team outside looking in.
We'll say all the 7-5 Big 10 teams get into bowls... so then whether Illinois goes to the BCS or some team goes to an at-large bowl slot, it doesn't matter.
That leaves 2 slots... possibly one if Arizona beats Oregon and Arizona State loses. The Mountain West and MAC are the two most likely to take an extra slot, with it possible 4 MAC teams get to 7 wins next week... and even if not, a division champion in Miami, OH has 6 wins. However, Florida Atlantic could draw consideration if they beat Troy next week and move to 7-5 as well.
Last eligible teams most likely to get into bowl slots. From most likely to get in down to least.
All of Michigan State/Purdue/Indiana
TCU
Two of Ball State and Central Michigan (if Miami (OH) wins. If CMU wins, they auto-qualify)
All of Arizona/Cal/UCLA, if UA wins (Cal & UCLA auto-qualify if Arizona does not win)
Miami (OH) (if Central Michigan wins... if Miami wins they auto-qualify)
Florida Atlantic
Both Alabama/South Carolina (1 will go)
Winner of Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (loser doesn't qualify)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisville
Iowa
Ohio
Northwestern
Interesting that both ULM and Alabama are near the cusp... and it'll be odd to see Alabama get in but ULM not. But that's what it is to be in the SEC.
It'll be VERY interesting to see which team gets picked out of South Carolina and Alabama, though. Man, two teams that were on the outskirts of the title talk in October... and were definitely in the thick of their division races... one gets left home. South Carolina beat Georgia and Kentucky and took Tennessee and Clemson to the ropes. Bama beat Tennessee and Arkansas and took LSU, Georgia, FSU, and even Auburn to the ropes. Amazing that one of those teams doesn't get in.
Honestly, it has to be Bama after losing to Mississippi State and ULM in back-to-back weeks and losing 4 straight to end the year. South Carolina lost 5 straight to end... but after a bad loss to Vandy (Gamecocks were ranked #6 at the time!!!), the last 4 are all now-ranked opponents. And there's still no ULM. Of course it all depends on matchups.
I'm still sad Louisville stays home, too, even if they beat Rutgers. What an awful way for Brahm to go out. I guess that speaks to the abilities of Petrino.
Odds and Ends
It's records all around for my favorite teams. Not only did Tebow tie the rushing td mark for a qb today... but Sam Bradford at OU broke the NCAA record for passing tds for a freshman, and Kevin Smith is now 4th all-time in terms of yards rushing EVER.
The problem is that so many of those records are entirely due to the expansion to 12 games. Smith could theoretically break the NCAA record by rushing for 464 yards in next week's CUSA title game and then the bowl game. But the records the breaks are of those people who only had 11 games count (bowls didn't count back in the day, either). Bradford also got the bonus of an extra game and the weak Big 12. It's Tebow's numbers that continues to shine. Even if you cut back today's numbers, he still is the first qb to go 20/20.
I felt good about the chances of a Florida-Illinois bowl game earlier today... but I now I feel they are almost impossible. Florida-USC in the Rose Bowl is almost as likely! It is interesting that Georgia, with 2 losses could miss the BCS. But if they don't make top 4, and Tebow wins the Heisman (though I don't think that comes out until after the BCS selection), it might have been possible. It's definitely of interest to the BCS folks that Florida will probably pull a bigger audience. Money talks. But Florida will still probably stay home... while Illinois is probably going to the Rose Bowl, which would defeat all hope of a meeting. Now, if Missouri does win next week (maybe I should stop counting a loss as a definite), then Illinois doesn't go to the Rose and it's a tad bit more likely they don't make the BCS. It'd help if BC and 2 of the 3 Pac 10 teams win next week.
I heard it today on CBS: "UF should be preseason #1". Hadn't thought about it. But how can they not be? They have 5 seniors, 3 on offense and 2 on D (unfortunately one is Tony Joyner, in the already weak secondary) [oh, don't forget kicker Tony Ijjas is a senior too]. Losing two O lineman could be sneakily painful, too. But with all the skill players back, plus a running back coming in from USC, and the D progressing a year... how do you doubt them!?! 19 points from being undefeated this year. That's less than Georgia. Only teams with less: Hawaii (0), Kansas (6), Ohio State (7), LSU (8), West Virginia (8), USC (8), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (10), South Florida (15), Illinois (16), Cincy (16), Boston College (17), BYU (18).
Ok, that's more than I thought! Can you still tell me it wasn't an amazing season!!?!
Also of interest: Illinois only loses two starters on offense (but 5 on D).
Yikes, Ohio State only loses 2 on offense and 1 on D.
BTW, 3/2 for Georgia, as well.
6/3 for my supposed sneaky NCSU team.
2/8 for Arizona (yipe).
None of those count early-leaving juniors/others.
Anyways, one more week. Anyone as exhausted as me!?!
That's the question after the losses by 4 more top 10 teams (I think we need to check historical records on # of losses by top 10 and top 5 teams!), including #1 LSU and #2 Kansas (#1 and #2 hadn't lost the same weekend since 1997, now it finally has happened twice this year...... could it happen again next week!?!) (and I wonder when the last time is that #1 and #2 both lost at home (at least technically, when it comes to Kansas)). Oregon losing also continues the "momentum" theme for this year, and knocks them and similarly coming-up-short Arizona State well back... and also confuses things further.
First, let's go to the poll, though:
1 Missouri 11-1 / win @ Kansas || +4
2 West Virginia 10-1 / win vs UConn || +1
3 Ohio State 11-1 / OFF || +3
4 Hawaii 11-0 / win vs Boise State || +3
5 Georgia 10-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || +3
6 Kansas 11-1 / loss vs Missouri || -5
7 Oklahoma 10-2 / win vs Oklahoma St || +3
8 LSU 10-2 / loss vs Arkansas || -6
9 Virginia Tech 10-2 / win @ Virginia || +4
10 USC 9-2 / win @ Arizona State || +2
11 Florida 9-3 / win vs FSU || 0
12 Arizona State 9-2 / loss vs USC || -8
13 Illinois 9-3 / OFF || +3
14 Tennessee 9-3 / win @ Kentucky || +4
15 Boston College 10-2 / win vs Miami || +5
16 South Florida 8-3 / win @ Pittsburgh || +5
17 Clemson 9-3 / win @ South Carolina || +5
18 Boise State 10-2 / loss @ Hawaii || -4
19 Virginia 9-3 / loss vs Virginia Tech || -2
20 Cincinnati 9-3 / win @ Syracuse || +4
21 Wisconsin 9-3 / OFF || +2
22 Auburn 8-4 / win vs Alabama || +3
23 Oregon 8-3 / loss @ UCLA || -14
24 Texas 9-3 / loss @ TAMU || -9
25 Arkansas 8-4 / win @ LSU || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Wake Forest, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, BYU, UConn, Oregon St, Utah, Penn St, Rutgers, Florida State, Mississippi State, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Fresno State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, Bowling Green
Fallen out: Connecticut
That's the first time I've ever wanted to move a team INTO the top 25 after a loss..... I think. I almost did, too, but had to give the nod to Arkansas.
So first things first, let's talk title picture. It's, very slowly, clearing into focus. Missouri still isn't terribly exciting to me, and I think Missouri was in a lose-lose situation tonight in that, if they won (as they did), everyone would think Kansas was just a giant fraud... and if they lost, they'd be done. And Kansas playing poorly the whole game hurt even more. The funniest thing is, except for a long string of slightly poor occurrences throughout the game, Kansas might have won that game.
Still, Missouri can't lose much. And Chase Daniel is suddenly everyone's Heisman winner over Tim Tebow...... which I think is 110% RIDICULOUS! Tebow 1, McFadden 2 looked like the easy ballot, especially after watching both work this weekend. Tebow once again showed this weekend his amazing talent at both the run and the pass with spectacular plays at both early in the game... but as Gary Danielson said, because 99% of the nation wasn't watching (because of that AMAZING finish to Kentucky-Tennessee (I didn't want to watch FSU-UF either!!!), he may be penalized. And to just add to the insanity, he set the record for rushing tds in a year by a quarterback! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?! More than the Vince Young's and Eric Crouch's of this world!?! While tossing in 29 passing touchdowns (he was tied for 10th in the NCAA coming into this weekend) to go with the 22 on the ground!?!
Daniel may have turned it up in the biggest game tonight, but he threw only 1 td and 2 picks against Oklahoma.
Yes, only 3 previous qbs with more than 2 losses have won the Heisman. But to blame Timmy T for the three losses is absurd. Three close losses in the SEC. 2 on the road to teams that'll be in the top 10 this weekend. And the offense never let them down in those games, in which they still scored 17, 24, and 30!?! Tebow had 8 tds to 2 int in those 3 games. Sorry, I like the Big 12, and I think Daniel has well-earned a spot at the table in New York... but you can't help but give it to a quarterback who has broken records, had breathtaking passes and runs, and led his team to a successful season in the brutal SEC (did you see those two games this weekend!!?!... the conference went 2-2 this weekend vs the ACC with 2 good wins, a close loss for South Carolina, and a poor game by Vandy). I have a pile of Florida State fans who will admit this man should win the Heisman. Don't forget how much an impact he had on UF's title run last season, too! Give the man the trophy. Invite Daniel, McFadden, White, and probably Brennan.
Anyways, oh yeah, title game.
I've gotta be honest... I am very confident Oklahoma wins next weekend.
And hopefully that'll quell all this Heisman jazz as an added bonus. They showed today how much Bradford means. And the game is in San Antonio. I say Oklahoma obliterates. I hope so.
If that's the case..... the team I despised playing gets in... and I'm not so sure that's an awful thing anymore. Yeah, amazing, the Buckeyes may be right back in the game. And the taste of a decisive victory over Michigan continues to taste good to end the season. Kansas should fall out of the title picture (though I bet the computers prop them up further than they should).
Virginia Tech looked SPECTACULAR this weekend in their win over UConn. They look ready to play, and honestly are still my pick to win the NC, with Ohio State being a close second (sorry Missouri, I'm not buying... and I've been the quiet champion of Kansas and you guys all year).
But the HUGE question is, just in case: who gets into the title game if, by some odd disaster, Pittsburgh somehow wins next week in Morgantown (I think that's downright impossible, but this year, you never know I suppose)?
If disaster does somehow happen, I think we may end up with a very overlooked disaster by the BCS. And I'm desperately hoping that just doesn't happen.
Because if WVU did lose, we'd end up with a 4 team battle for the NC, and it'd be a pretty decent discussion. The 4 teams I think have very legit claims if that happens:
Georgia - looking pretty as the best two loss team, and now doesn't have to play next week. Does that help or hurt? I have to go with help, but we'll definitely see.
Oklahoma - if Oklahoma does knock off Missouri decisively, it will bring up discussion, and the numbers will get close. How do Colorado and Texas Tech on the road for the losses and a pair of wins over Missouri along with a Texas in hand compare to losses to South Carolina (at home) and Tennessee on the road (blowout), with victories over Florida, Auburn, Kentucky... and Troy!?! It's a VERY good discussion. Does the later loss cost them more? And can I have Jon Bible's home address if it does (he did the KU-MU game tonight... and got at least one call wrong in the game)?
Kansas - it is going to be so intriguing to see where they end up after this week. The scoreboard makes it look like they played better than they did....... but even I turned the game off after halftime. They are done, with one loss (compared to the two for OU and Georgia). The computers won't assault them too badly. How bad to the people? Do they give them too much benefit of the doubt for having only lost to the #1 team at a neutral site by 6?!? It'll be VERY interesting!!! Will people rise up what they and I now agree would be a giant travesty... Kansas playing in the title game? An untested team: fine. A team that was tested once and dissected once: ridiculous! Prediction if they did get in: all time rating low.
Hawaii - THIS IS THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY DESERVES THE NOD IN MY BOOK. Perhaps they are just a new Kansas, but they have turned an awful start into a stellar finish, and really run through some pretty meaty teams. That's if they beat Washington next week. I also wonder very much how much Hawaii moves up. I'm guessing they only pass BC (and of course Texas), which is a real shame. Gotta believe they deserve to be above a 3-loss Florida team at least. But beat Washington (a good team), then we'll talk.
And honestly this list leaves out four also deserving teams: Virginia Tech (who might actually end up the numerical victor, but definitely wouldn't deserve it, haven lost ugly games to BC and especially LSU, and never looking dominant), USC (oh yeah, them... if they win next week, they actually are secretly on quite a beautiful roll (oh if they hadn't lost to Arizona State... they would actually be there now, at worst right behind OSU)), LSU (probably the best of the two loss teams, but having lost so late, probably falls too far), and West Virginia (South Florida and Pitt are an ugly two, but they would have two losses and have won some very defining games. Anyone else wondering where Florida would be had they not lost one of their three? I know I am! Would they be above Georgia? How about Ohio State!?!?! Hmmmm, one can think for a long time!
Updated BCS Discussion
Okey dokey, so now the bowl picture is a little clearer. FINALLY a second team clinched a BCS bowl birth today... most likely Georgia (honestly, there's no way Florida gets it..... unless Illinois gets one, then maybe a bowl will consider it... but Georgia is going to end up too highly ranked, honestly (quite possibly even top 4)).
Meanwhile, though, the Pac 10 picture got turned upside down. We were looking at the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 cleaning up three of the at-large spots... but the Pac 10 is excruciating danger now. Arizona State still represents an outside shot... but Oregon is done. A loss next weekend by USC or Arizona State finishes it off for good, and further blurs the BCS.
Also basically certain now: the Big East only gets 1 BCS team.
Also, I'm now quite confident the Big 12 has locked up a second berth.
So BCS breakdown:
Clearness -
SEC - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of LSU-TENNESSEE and one of Georgia/Florida/LSU, almost certainly Georgia)
Big 12 - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of OU-Missouri) and either loser or Kansas, probably Kansas.
Big East - West Virginia only
Murkiness -
ACC - Qualifies winner of BC-VT... but does loser stay in the top 14... or does Virginia somehow creep back in? If VT wins, it looks near impossible... unless they must expand the at-large field as now being discussed.
Pac 10 - Qualifies conference winner (USC if they win, ASU with a win and USC loss, Oregon maybe if both teams lose and they win). If USC and ASU both win, that should bring 2 berths. But if they don't, it's shaky.
Big 10 - OHIO STATE is in. Illinois' picture is getting more pretty by the day.
Wac - Hawaii is right on the border of an auto-qualify by getting into top 12. Will not have any help by the top 16 conference winner rule. But actually looks most likely because of the three conferences above. If they win.
If Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and Oregon lose next weekend.... boy I haven't the foggiest about that last bid! Boston College/Virginia would be my best guess.
Predicted BCS games:
National Title Game - West Virginia vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Illinois vs USC
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs Arizona State
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Hawaii
That would require Hawaii sticking in the top 12 somehow even though BC probably jumps up. Basically it requires them to be ahead of VT, a tough proposition. But we shall see. Not the most exciting games.
Updated Large Bowl Picture
So now we can clean up the post from yesterday a bit.
ACC: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
Big East: 5 eligible, 5 tie-ins 0 6-6 teams (Louisville could become one, but won't go bowling)
Big 10: 10 eligible, 7 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Big 12: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
CUSA: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins
MAC: 5 eligible, 3 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams (1 is Miami (OH) which plays for title next week)
MWC: 5 eligible, 4 tie-ins, no 6-6 teams
Pac 10: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team and 1 more possible to reach 6-6
SEC: 10 eligible, 8 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Sun Belt: 3 eligible, 1 tie-in, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team
WAC: 3 (will be 4) eligible, 3 tie-ins, will be 1 6-6 team
Indep: Navy in, Western Kentucky not legal yet.
70 eligible teams (will be at least 71, as much as 73)... 64 spots.
So which 7-9 teams get left home?
Well the only empty slots possible are the 4 at-large BCS teams. The SEC will eat up one of those slots. Leaving three. The Big 12 2nd BCS game will open up one at-large bowler. If the Big 10 or WAC get a second BCS team, they will eat a second at-large bowler within their conference. If the ACC gets a second BCS, it will open a second at-large slot. Finally, the Pac 10 could go either way, with 2 BCSers and an empty slot, or 1 BCSer and 7 eligible teams leaving one team outside looking in.
We'll say all the 7-5 Big 10 teams get into bowls... so then whether Illinois goes to the BCS or some team goes to an at-large bowl slot, it doesn't matter.
That leaves 2 slots... possibly one if Arizona beats Oregon and Arizona State loses. The Mountain West and MAC are the two most likely to take an extra slot, with it possible 4 MAC teams get to 7 wins next week... and even if not, a division champion in Miami, OH has 6 wins. However, Florida Atlantic could draw consideration if they beat Troy next week and move to 7-5 as well.
Last eligible teams most likely to get into bowl slots. From most likely to get in down to least.
All of Michigan State/Purdue/Indiana
TCU
Two of Ball State and Central Michigan (if Miami (OH) wins. If CMU wins, they auto-qualify)
All of Arizona/Cal/UCLA, if UA wins (Cal & UCLA auto-qualify if Arizona does not win)
Miami (OH) (if Central Michigan wins... if Miami wins they auto-qualify)
Florida Atlantic
Both Alabama/South Carolina (1 will go)
Winner of Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (loser doesn't qualify)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisville
Iowa
Ohio
Northwestern
Interesting that both ULM and Alabama are near the cusp... and it'll be odd to see Alabama get in but ULM not. But that's what it is to be in the SEC.
It'll be VERY interesting to see which team gets picked out of South Carolina and Alabama, though. Man, two teams that were on the outskirts of the title talk in October... and were definitely in the thick of their division races... one gets left home. South Carolina beat Georgia and Kentucky and took Tennessee and Clemson to the ropes. Bama beat Tennessee and Arkansas and took LSU, Georgia, FSU, and even Auburn to the ropes. Amazing that one of those teams doesn't get in.
Honestly, it has to be Bama after losing to Mississippi State and ULM in back-to-back weeks and losing 4 straight to end the year. South Carolina lost 5 straight to end... but after a bad loss to Vandy (Gamecocks were ranked #6 at the time!!!), the last 4 are all now-ranked opponents. And there's still no ULM. Of course it all depends on matchups.
I'm still sad Louisville stays home, too, even if they beat Rutgers. What an awful way for Brahm to go out. I guess that speaks to the abilities of Petrino.
Odds and Ends
It's records all around for my favorite teams. Not only did Tebow tie the rushing td mark for a qb today... but Sam Bradford at OU broke the NCAA record for passing tds for a freshman, and Kevin Smith is now 4th all-time in terms of yards rushing EVER.
The problem is that so many of those records are entirely due to the expansion to 12 games. Smith could theoretically break the NCAA record by rushing for 464 yards in next week's CUSA title game and then the bowl game. But the records the breaks are of those people who only had 11 games count (bowls didn't count back in the day, either). Bradford also got the bonus of an extra game and the weak Big 12. It's Tebow's numbers that continues to shine. Even if you cut back today's numbers, he still is the first qb to go 20/20.
I felt good about the chances of a Florida-Illinois bowl game earlier today... but I now I feel they are almost impossible. Florida-USC in the Rose Bowl is almost as likely! It is interesting that Georgia, with 2 losses could miss the BCS. But if they don't make top 4, and Tebow wins the Heisman (though I don't think that comes out until after the BCS selection), it might have been possible. It's definitely of interest to the BCS folks that Florida will probably pull a bigger audience. Money talks. But Florida will still probably stay home... while Illinois is probably going to the Rose Bowl, which would defeat all hope of a meeting. Now, if Missouri does win next week (maybe I should stop counting a loss as a definite), then Illinois doesn't go to the Rose and it's a tad bit more likely they don't make the BCS. It'd help if BC and 2 of the 3 Pac 10 teams win next week.
I heard it today on CBS: "UF should be preseason #1". Hadn't thought about it. But how can they not be? They have 5 seniors, 3 on offense and 2 on D (unfortunately one is Tony Joyner, in the already weak secondary) [oh, don't forget kicker Tony Ijjas is a senior too]. Losing two O lineman could be sneakily painful, too. But with all the skill players back, plus a running back coming in from USC, and the D progressing a year... how do you doubt them!?! 19 points from being undefeated this year. That's less than Georgia. Only teams with less: Hawaii (0), Kansas (6), Ohio State (7), LSU (8), West Virginia (8), USC (8), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (10), South Florida (15), Illinois (16), Cincy (16), Boston College (17), BYU (18).
Ok, that's more than I thought! Can you still tell me it wasn't an amazing season!!?!
Also of interest: Illinois only loses two starters on offense (but 5 on D).
Yikes, Ohio State only loses 2 on offense and 1 on D.
BTW, 3/2 for Georgia, as well.
6/3 for my supposed sneaky NCSU team.
2/8 for Arizona (yipe).
None of those count early-leaving juniors/others.
Anyways, one more week. Anyone as exhausted as me!?!
Friday, November 23, 2007
Let's talk bowls:
So I did a detailed bowl analysis by conference tonight... and here it is!!!
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
ACC: 7 eligible, 1 will be, 1 more possible > Miami @ BC, Maryland @ NCSU
Big East: 5 eligible, 1 more poss > Rutgers @ Louisville
Big 10: 10 eligible
Big 12: 8 eligibile, 1 poss > KState @ Fresno
CUSA: 6 eligible
MAC: 4 eligible, 1 poss > Miami OH @ Ohio
MWC: 5 eligible (man, Wyoming's season fell apart)
Pac 10: 5 eligible, 2 poss > Arizona @ Arizona State, UCLA with Oregon & USC left
SEC: 10 eligible, 1 poss > Wake @ Vandy
Sun Belt: 1 eligible, 3 poss > Ark State @ USM, ULM @ ULL, FAU has FIU and Troy still
WAC: 3 eligible, 1 will be, with 1 more poss > Nevada @ SJSU, then LTech @ Nevada
Independents: 2 eligible
Total: 68 auto, 11 more poss. I'd say about 7 of those make it.
32 bowl games -> 64 teams qualify.
Hmm, didn't know this: "NCAA bylaws stipulate any team finishing 6-6 can only be selected to fill a conference tie-in bowl slot once all other available conference teams are chosen."
ACC: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
Big East: 5 tie ins (5 filled)
Big 10: 7 tie ins (3 leftover)
Big 12: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
CUSA: 6 tie ins (6 filled)
MAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
MWC: 4 tie ins (1 leftover)
Pac 10: 6 tie ins (maybe 1 leftover, but I say it's unlikely)
SeC: 8 tie ins (2 leftover)
Sun Belt: 1 tie in (1 filled)
WAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
Navy: signed to the Poinsettia Bowl
W Ken: not listed on the site I'm looking at, so perhaps not eligible?
So unless my info is wrong, there are no empty slots except the BCS bowl at-larges. That's 4 spots. That should give a 9th SEC team a spot... and probably an extra WAC team... but if the other two go to Pac 10 and Big 12, it may open up 2 slots to heavy contest.
So missing:
ACC: 1 possibly (either the NCSU/Maryland winner, or Miami, depending on season series)
Big East: Louisville is basically out unless they get a 2nd BCS team.
Big 10: Iowa and Northwestern are out. The rest of the teams have 7+ wins, so I bet they get an at-large.
Big 12: If KState wins, it comes down to Colorado, KState, and possibly OSU to the odd team out.
CUSA: good to go. Yay UCF!
MAC: Only 1 team with over 6 wins. I doubt they get a 4th. I sure HOPE they don't get a 4th. Awful conference this year.
MWC: If TCU beats SDSt, then all will be 7+ wins... and probably snag another at-large.
Pac 10: doubtful to go over... but 1 wins get them their required 6. But they still have an open slot assuming a 2nd BcSer.
SEC: So it does come down to Alabama and South Carolina. If both win... all 10 have 7, and then it gets messy. If neither win, it's 9 assuming they get a BCS at-large.
Sun Belt: good to go, Troy
WAC: I say they get 4... of course dependent upon Hawaii/BS qualifying for the BCS. They only have 2 teams over 6 wins, but could end up with 4 still. So theoretically could sneak in 4 anyways. And won't get 5.
Independents: looks like Navy has their spot, and WKen isn't being considered, according to the data I read.
So the extra spots go to a Big 10 team, an SEC team, a WAC team (if Hawaii/Boise make it), and a giant toss up (MWC looking best, then maybe the SEC if a good day tomorrow).
But of course, as wikipedia's article notes, "The Independence Bowl, for instance, only has loose ties with the Big 12 and SEC, although any Division I FBS team may be chosen to play in the bowl".
My source for the tie-ins is some ordinary page at http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/2007/bowls.html.
Anyways, it's interesting to consider. And that teams slike Alabama and South Carolina could be left home after such amazing early seasons, while Cal, losers of 5 of their last 6, is set to go with 6 wins. Should be some SPECTACULAR bowls this year, though, with the huge mass of teams that were title contenders at one point this season!
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
ACC: 7 eligible, 1 will be, 1 more possible > Miami @ BC, Maryland @ NCSU
Big East: 5 eligible, 1 more poss > Rutgers @ Louisville
Big 10: 10 eligible
Big 12: 8 eligibile, 1 poss > KState @ Fresno
CUSA: 6 eligible
MAC: 4 eligible, 1 poss > Miami OH @ Ohio
MWC: 5 eligible (man, Wyoming's season fell apart)
Pac 10: 5 eligible, 2 poss > Arizona @ Arizona State, UCLA with Oregon & USC left
SEC: 10 eligible, 1 poss > Wake @ Vandy
Sun Belt: 1 eligible, 3 poss > Ark State @ USM, ULM @ ULL, FAU has FIU and Troy still
WAC: 3 eligible, 1 will be, with 1 more poss > Nevada @ SJSU, then LTech @ Nevada
Independents: 2 eligible
Total: 68 auto, 11 more poss. I'd say about 7 of those make it.
32 bowl games -> 64 teams qualify.
Hmm, didn't know this: "NCAA bylaws stipulate any team finishing 6-6 can only be selected to fill a conference tie-in bowl slot once all other available conference teams are chosen."
ACC: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
Big East: 5 tie ins (5 filled)
Big 10: 7 tie ins (3 leftover)
Big 12: 8 tie ins (8 filled)
CUSA: 6 tie ins (6 filled)
MAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
MWC: 4 tie ins (1 leftover)
Pac 10: 6 tie ins (maybe 1 leftover, but I say it's unlikely)
SeC: 8 tie ins (2 leftover)
Sun Belt: 1 tie in (1 filled)
WAC: 3 tie ins (1 leftover)
Navy: signed to the Poinsettia Bowl
W Ken: not listed on the site I'm looking at, so perhaps not eligible?
So unless my info is wrong, there are no empty slots except the BCS bowl at-larges. That's 4 spots. That should give a 9th SEC team a spot... and probably an extra WAC team... but if the other two go to Pac 10 and Big 12, it may open up 2 slots to heavy contest.
So missing:
ACC: 1 possibly (either the NCSU/Maryland winner, or Miami, depending on season series)
Big East: Louisville is basically out unless they get a 2nd BCS team.
Big 10: Iowa and Northwestern are out. The rest of the teams have 7+ wins, so I bet they get an at-large.
Big 12: If KState wins, it comes down to Colorado, KState, and possibly OSU to the odd team out.
CUSA: good to go. Yay UCF!
MAC: Only 1 team with over 6 wins. I doubt they get a 4th. I sure HOPE they don't get a 4th. Awful conference this year.
MWC: If TCU beats SDSt, then all will be 7+ wins... and probably snag another at-large.
Pac 10: doubtful to go over... but 1 wins get them their required 6. But they still have an open slot assuming a 2nd BcSer.
SEC: So it does come down to Alabama and South Carolina. If both win... all 10 have 7, and then it gets messy. If neither win, it's 9 assuming they get a BCS at-large.
Sun Belt: good to go, Troy
WAC: I say they get 4... of course dependent upon Hawaii/BS qualifying for the BCS. They only have 2 teams over 6 wins, but could end up with 4 still. So theoretically could sneak in 4 anyways. And won't get 5.
Independents: looks like Navy has their spot, and WKen isn't being considered, according to the data I read.
So the extra spots go to a Big 10 team, an SEC team, a WAC team (if Hawaii/Boise make it), and a giant toss up (MWC looking best, then maybe the SEC if a good day tomorrow).
But of course, as wikipedia's article notes, "The Independence Bowl, for instance, only has loose ties with the Big 12 and SEC, although any Division I FBS team may be chosen to play in the bowl".
My source for the tie-ins is some ordinary page at http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/2007/bowls.html.
Anyways, it's interesting to consider. And that teams slike Alabama and South Carolina could be left home after such amazing early seasons, while Cal, losers of 5 of their last 6, is set to go with 6 wins. Should be some SPECTACULAR bowls this year, though, with the huge mass of teams that were title contenders at one point this season!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Top 25 (Nov 19)
OK, I think I'm finally cooled down from that debacle of officiating called the Texas Tech game Saturday night. We lost that game... but yet again the refs took it away. For the first 42 minutes, we deserved to lose and I was ready to move on just as I did after the OU and UF losses. A loss is a loss.
But we came back with authority. We wanted that win... and honestly, we earned OT.
I don't know who to blame for the awful "not-a-td" call... I'm not quick to get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon... but 3 times in 3 years is absurd.
Anyways, time to move on.
I find it VERY awesome and funny that the BCS today addressed exactly what I had written about last week. In fact, if I want to talk conspiracy... who all is reading my Blog!?! First the Texas Tech deal... now the BCS one.
But hooray! The BCS has opted to expand the eligible team pool to 18 from 14 IN THE RARE POSSIBILITY THAT NOT ENOUGH TEAMS QUALIFY. *Grins*
Anyways, it's poll time:
1 Kansas 11-0 / win vs Iowa State || 0
2 LSU 10-1 / win @ Mississippi || 0
3 West Virginia 9-1 / win @ Cincinnati || +2
4 Arizona State 9-1 / OFF || +2
5 Missouri 10-1 / win @ Kansas State || +2
6 Ohio State 11-1 / win @ Michigan || +2
7 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Nevada || +2
8 Georgia 9-2 / win vs Kentucky || +2
9 Oregon 8-2 / loss @ Arizona || -6
10 Oklahoma 9-2 / loss (with officiating help :-)) @ Texas Tech || -6
11 Florida 8-3 / win vs FAU || 0
12 USC 8-2 / OFF || 0
13 Virginia Tech 9-2 / win vs Miami || 0
14 Boise State 10-1 / win vs Idaho || 0
15 Texas 9-2 / OFF || 0
16 Illinois 9-3 / win vs Northwestern|| +3
17 Virginia 9-2 / OFF || +1
18 Tennessee 8-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || -1
19 Connecticut 9-2 / win vs Syracuse || +2
20 Boston College 9-2 / win vs Clemson || 0
21 South Florida 8-3 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Clemson 8-2 / loss @ Boston College || -6
23 Wisconsin 9-3 / win @ Minnesota || -1
24 Cincinnati 8-3 / loss vs West Virginia || 0
25 Auburn 7-4 / OFF || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech
Fallen out: Penn State, Kentucky
///
Discussion:
Definitely continues to get murky at the bottom. Tough to drop Cincy when they played a close one... and teams near the top 25 all lost bad games. Cal lost their 5th in 6 games...... remember when we were really thinking about them as National Champion possibilities??? And Alabama lost to ULM.
So as disappointing as a weekend as I had all-around in college football (in the early games, I was rooting for Michigan, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State... then rooting for Mississippi and NC State... and of course Oklahoma)... it could be much much worse.
-- The most interesting thing to me is now definitely becoming the Hawaii/Boise/WAC situation. People are FINALLY starting to murmur about Boise making it back to the BCS... all I can say is about time. Out of all the games to come next week, this one may be the most critical and thus interesting (ok, UConn/UWV is pretty big on my radar, too) all around... and they are playing some game in Kansas City?
It's starting to become nervous for the WAC representative-hopeful. Hawaii seems to be treading water... winning, but never gaining any real ground, even as they beat decent teams. This is the first week they've moved up in the BCS since their off week back on Oct 20th. I guess they should stop playing. It's quite ironic that they move up in the weekend that DOESN'T have all the huge upsets!
Obviously, it was another game they probably should have lost. But I've learned to give Hawaii a little more respect. And they made it through the minefield of weak opponents and injuries to Boise. About as close a call as they could have, but still.
On the other hand, Boise did fall in the BCS this week... and when you play Idaho, that's not shocking. They will get a bit of help this week... but it's going to be tough to make up a lot of ground here. If they beat Hawaii convincingly, all people will remember is Hawaii's near misses. Perhaps if they sneak one out they have the best shot of gaining some serious ground. But the computers aren't going to do them a lot of favors for beating a Hawaii team with one of the worst SOS' out there.
I thought Hawaii and Boise could only gain, since they were so low in the computers (particularly Hawaii... especially since they had slightly better teams ahead on the schedule). Boise's desperation may come down to people remembering them from last year. And they can proclaim they want to prove it wasn't a fluke. But, then, will the big boys want to risk letting them win 2 in a row!?!
The biggest disaster left is a realistic one... that Hawaii wins, then loses to Washington. How interesting that Washington could single-handedly dash the WAC's hopes!?! They are the sole loss for Boise already, back in September. But Hawaii gets them at home. Then again, Hawaii hasn't exactly cruised through their schedule... so I doubt it's a cakewalk.
Then we get into whether the winner of the contest, barring that disaster loss, will get into the BCS. I was sure a month ago Hawaii was set... and we've only had an extra heaping of upsets to savor since then... and yet, here we are, the WAC winner will be teetering over the edge.
The best news is that the pool is indeed slim this year for the BCS. The WAC can thank the Big 12 and SEC if, indeed, it does slip in despite being ranked below 12th.
One big door that opened last week slammed shut this week, as Ohio State sewed up the Big 10 with a win and kept a Michigan team from possibly unlocking the "guaranteed 16" clause. Of course a few possibilities have cropped up. Here's the breakdown of the possibilities of a team winning their conference and falling outside the top 12... or particularly the top 16:
Big East - pretty much no shot at this point. If UConn (currently 20) wins, I think they end up right around 12... as they have a lot of room to move up in every poll. If WVU wins next week, even if they lose obscenely to Pittsburgh the final weekend, I doubt they fall out of the top 12.
SEC - strangely, their hope here actually lies in Georgia I think... but I doubt they get it. If Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU to win the title, they should move up well from their current spot (18th). LSU, even with a bad loss to Arkansas next week, would be fine if they won the following weekend. The only hope I see of interest is if UT, Georgia, AND LSU lose this week... then Georgia beats LSU in another ugly game. But basically this conference doesn't offer much help either.
ACC - Despite having their three possible teams being 8, 14, and 16... this conference looks decently good to have a top 12er. If the winner is the winner of the coastal from next weeks UVa/VT game, it's a lock. The WAC hope squarely lies in a BC loss to Miami this week (which I seriously doubt), and then to respond by winning next week.
Pac 10 - With 2 conference games left, with all three of the competing teams still with a weak game left (Arizona and two UCLA's), it could get a little messy. But with their teams at 6, 9, and 11, it'd be tough to go too bad, wouldn't it!?! Really to get below 12th, Arizona State would have to lose both and USC would have to lose to UCLA... and Oregon would have to lose one as well. Sorry WAC. Just beat Washington, or else the Pac 10 will have totally ended you.
Big 12 - Only shot here is the South winner from an ugly final weekend coming back out and beating the great North winner. OU could lose to Oklahoma State..... and Texas could lose to TAMU. I've been told OSU is mathematically eliminated. So you could end up with Oklahoma coming off another loss eeking one out in San Antonio. That's really the only hope there.
So as you can see, not many doors at all anymore for the WAC to auto-qualify. It's dicey to think they might make the top 12... and it's pretty unlikely now that a big-conference winner will fall outside the top 12... with a few spots still to be vacated by the USC/ASU loser (unless they win the conference... then Oregon and the winner would probably fall out), and quite possibly one or two Big 12 teams.
It all comes down, as I said earlier, to the at-large bid. And, honestly, I still have to think they'll get that.
The rule change IS actually interesting.
Because the most unfair thing in history could happen.
The BCS could come up short of the required number... unlocking 2 to 4 more teams... and they could theoretically skip over the WAC team in the top 16!
I really don't believe that's possible, though. The BCS isn't stupid. They've been sued before.
And besides, they've got an exciting rematch with Oklahoma (UGGGG) to toss around.
But it's going to be razor close.
If Hawaii doesn't win, then lose to Washington. Otherwise it'll all be for not.
-- OK, so Kansas and Missouri will, when all is said and done, quite possibly be the highest ranked game of the year (by this I mean the final records of the two teams involved) outside of the National Championship game (or maybe even including it!). Who would have thought that!?! *sheepishly raises hand* (take a look back at my very first poll back on October 7th! I was really interested in Kansas' obscene point differential in their first 4 cupcake games. Yes, I suggested no less than probably 5 teams could be dark horses... but I was on the Kansas bandwagon early all season. Way to go me! ;-)
Anyways, beyond their point total early in the season, there is one other thing that really has stood out to me this year about them... and that's their ability to consistently beat good teams on the road. It was something Florida did last year (sans Auburn, a close game... but they beat Georgia, they beat FSU, etc). It's something even the likes of LSU and WVU haven't been able to do this year.
And the stunning thing is how brutal their road schedule has been. They've had SEVEN home games this year and only 4 real road games. But those four are som pretty strong Big 12 teams; Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They aren't upper-echelon, but have proven to be a solid second tier. And they are rewarded with Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home... the worst 3 teams in the league. Their cupcake OOC sched really was everything to them this year... they probably would've never got the ball rolling this year if not for those tuneups... but they have had to continuously prove they are the best out there by beating every good team they've played on the road. To look at their low SOS and banish them just isn't being fair. And they wind it all up with a neutral-site game against Missouri!?!
It will definitely be interesting to see what type of crowd shows up this weekend. And it's amazing to think that the winner of this game is one game from the National Championship.
And then Missouri. I've really forgotten about them since they were handled by Oklahoma. Yet here they are, doing what Oklahoma wasn't able to. And they've quietly looked good too.
All I know is this one is a surprise matchup of the year that's gotta be one for the ages!
-- The other sorrow this weekend, besides OU losing, has to be the daggum SEC. Kentucky finally failed for me at the most critical time... and UF is eliminated.
At the same time, the gates on the freefalling season finally seemed to close up to make a bottom floor.
What is the lowest possible BCS team now to reach the NC game? And the worst possible game?
Worst scenario:
LSU and Georgia lose this weekend badly, likely eliminating them.
The winner of the KC battle gets shellacked by the South winner next weekend, eliminating them.
West Virginia loses again.
Arizona State loses again.
VTech and Oregon both lose again.
Wow, is it still possible Oklahoma could make the NC game!?!
SPEW.
The problem is, I don't think it is. One bottom-lock is definitely Ohio State. The other is probably Kansas if nothing else. The most they can have now is 1 loss, which itself is amazing! Even if their loss is awful, 1 loss will be tough to penalize that badly.
But it's amazing to think it could. Like what if Missouri wins 80-0? And then loses 63-3? *scratches head*
I guess if you want to be absurd, the absolute bottom-lock would be #17 Illinois. They are the first team down the list beyond Ohio State that doesn't still have the chance to really lose badly.
But really the bottom of the barrel left is probably Georgia. We'll know in a week.
But it's always been good to play "what if" this year.
-- I saw the ultimate suggestion tonight... and a VERY possible... make that probable, game! The Zook Bowl!
It could happen one of two ways: #1 is the easiest... the Florida Citrus Bowl.
#2 is just as intriguing... a BCS bowl. If three more teams fall out of the top 14... or if the teams that move up cause there to not be enough "pool" BCS teams... it's a good chance. Illinois would almost certainly be the pick if that happened. Tennessee winning the SEC title (a good possibility in my opinion) would be the perfect catalyst to it all. Then we'd just need something out of the ordinary from happening... particularly a top team unexpectedly not winning their conference (specifically if UConn beat UWV). And if it doesn't happen, the Citrus Bowl (Capital One... blah blah blah) is still a good chance... though the BCS would have to take Georgia over UF (also a good possibility, if LSU wins). So if Tennessee (and LSU) win this weekend, it definitely helps the matchup along in probability! And I'd love it!
-- And my last bit of interest is in West Virginia's run of recent. Like Missouri, they've been a team I've basically overlooked since their one loss...... even as I predicted them in the NC game a long ways back vs. South Carolina.
But this team is rolling. In the last month they beat a good Mississippi State (which beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama), then crushed Rutgers, beat Louisville, and then held off Cincinnati on the road. People may think those teams aren't the top ones, especially the first three... but I definitely think people are overlooked how potent they still are. I could still see Louisville or Rutgers beating anyone. Meanwhile the USF loss, after they had that bad stretch, has started to look squarely respectable again... and the team is together... and don't forget White was hurt in the USF game. Honestly, UWV has to be my top choice for nationally champion at this point. I would most love to see a Kansas-UWV battle (as much for the geeky "prestige" as anything)... but I would also enjoy LSU or Missouri in the game, and think any game involving those 4 would be decent. Not so sure about ASU or OSU. Thankfully I don't have to worry about them too much.
It should be an interesting January, for once ;-)
-- Bowl projections (as much for me to consider the interesting possibilities as you to really take stock in!)
National Championship - Kansas* vs. West Virginia*
Fiesta Bowl - Georgia vs Illinois
Sugar Bowl - Tennessee* vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech* vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - USC* vs Ohio State*
Exciting!
Have a good one!
But we came back with authority. We wanted that win... and honestly, we earned OT.
I don't know who to blame for the awful "not-a-td" call... I'm not quick to get on the conspiracy theory bandwagon... but 3 times in 3 years is absurd.
Anyways, time to move on.
I find it VERY awesome and funny that the BCS today addressed exactly what I had written about last week. In fact, if I want to talk conspiracy... who all is reading my Blog!?! First the Texas Tech deal... now the BCS one.
But hooray! The BCS has opted to expand the eligible team pool to 18 from 14 IN THE RARE POSSIBILITY THAT NOT ENOUGH TEAMS QUALIFY. *Grins*
Anyways, it's poll time:
1 Kansas 11-0 / win vs Iowa State || 0
2 LSU 10-1 / win @ Mississippi || 0
3 West Virginia 9-1 / win @ Cincinnati || +2
4 Arizona State 9-1 / OFF || +2
5 Missouri 10-1 / win @ Kansas State || +2
6 Ohio State 11-1 / win @ Michigan || +2
7 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Nevada || +2
8 Georgia 9-2 / win vs Kentucky || +2
9 Oregon 8-2 / loss @ Arizona || -6
10 Oklahoma 9-2 / loss (with officiating help :-)) @ Texas Tech || -6
11 Florida 8-3 / win vs FAU || 0
12 USC 8-2 / OFF || 0
13 Virginia Tech 9-2 / win vs Miami || 0
14 Boise State 10-1 / win vs Idaho || 0
15 Texas 9-2 / OFF || 0
16 Illinois 9-3 / win vs Northwestern|| +3
17 Virginia 9-2 / OFF || +1
18 Tennessee 8-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || -1
19 Connecticut 9-2 / win vs Syracuse || +2
20 Boston College 9-2 / win vs Clemson || 0
21 South Florida 8-3 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Clemson 8-2 / loss @ Boston College || -6
23 Wisconsin 9-3 / win @ Minnesota || -1
24 Cincinnati 8-3 / loss vs West Virginia || 0
25 Auburn 7-4 / OFF || NR
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Utah, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Rutgers, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech
Fallen out: Penn State, Kentucky
///
Discussion:
Definitely continues to get murky at the bottom. Tough to drop Cincy when they played a close one... and teams near the top 25 all lost bad games. Cal lost their 5th in 6 games...... remember when we were really thinking about them as National Champion possibilities??? And Alabama lost to ULM.
So as disappointing as a weekend as I had all-around in college football (in the early games, I was rooting for Michigan, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State... then rooting for Mississippi and NC State... and of course Oklahoma)... it could be much much worse.
-- The most interesting thing to me is now definitely becoming the Hawaii/Boise/WAC situation. People are FINALLY starting to murmur about Boise making it back to the BCS... all I can say is about time. Out of all the games to come next week, this one may be the most critical and thus interesting (ok, UConn/UWV is pretty big on my radar, too) all around... and they are playing some game in Kansas City?
It's starting to become nervous for the WAC representative-hopeful. Hawaii seems to be treading water... winning, but never gaining any real ground, even as they beat decent teams. This is the first week they've moved up in the BCS since their off week back on Oct 20th. I guess they should stop playing. It's quite ironic that they move up in the weekend that DOESN'T have all the huge upsets!
Obviously, it was another game they probably should have lost. But I've learned to give Hawaii a little more respect. And they made it through the minefield of weak opponents and injuries to Boise. About as close a call as they could have, but still.
On the other hand, Boise did fall in the BCS this week... and when you play Idaho, that's not shocking. They will get a bit of help this week... but it's going to be tough to make up a lot of ground here. If they beat Hawaii convincingly, all people will remember is Hawaii's near misses. Perhaps if they sneak one out they have the best shot of gaining some serious ground. But the computers aren't going to do them a lot of favors for beating a Hawaii team with one of the worst SOS' out there.
I thought Hawaii and Boise could only gain, since they were so low in the computers (particularly Hawaii... especially since they had slightly better teams ahead on the schedule). Boise's desperation may come down to people remembering them from last year. And they can proclaim they want to prove it wasn't a fluke. But, then, will the big boys want to risk letting them win 2 in a row!?!
The biggest disaster left is a realistic one... that Hawaii wins, then loses to Washington. How interesting that Washington could single-handedly dash the WAC's hopes!?! They are the sole loss for Boise already, back in September. But Hawaii gets them at home. Then again, Hawaii hasn't exactly cruised through their schedule... so I doubt it's a cakewalk.
Then we get into whether the winner of the contest, barring that disaster loss, will get into the BCS. I was sure a month ago Hawaii was set... and we've only had an extra heaping of upsets to savor since then... and yet, here we are, the WAC winner will be teetering over the edge.
The best news is that the pool is indeed slim this year for the BCS. The WAC can thank the Big 12 and SEC if, indeed, it does slip in despite being ranked below 12th.
One big door that opened last week slammed shut this week, as Ohio State sewed up the Big 10 with a win and kept a Michigan team from possibly unlocking the "guaranteed 16" clause. Of course a few possibilities have cropped up. Here's the breakdown of the possibilities of a team winning their conference and falling outside the top 12... or particularly the top 16:
Big East - pretty much no shot at this point. If UConn (currently 20) wins, I think they end up right around 12... as they have a lot of room to move up in every poll. If WVU wins next week, even if they lose obscenely to Pittsburgh the final weekend, I doubt they fall out of the top 12.
SEC - strangely, their hope here actually lies in Georgia I think... but I doubt they get it. If Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU to win the title, they should move up well from their current spot (18th). LSU, even with a bad loss to Arkansas next week, would be fine if they won the following weekend. The only hope I see of interest is if UT, Georgia, AND LSU lose this week... then Georgia beats LSU in another ugly game. But basically this conference doesn't offer much help either.
ACC - Despite having their three possible teams being 8, 14, and 16... this conference looks decently good to have a top 12er. If the winner is the winner of the coastal from next weeks UVa/VT game, it's a lock. The WAC hope squarely lies in a BC loss to Miami this week (which I seriously doubt), and then to respond by winning next week.
Pac 10 - With 2 conference games left, with all three of the competing teams still with a weak game left (Arizona and two UCLA's), it could get a little messy. But with their teams at 6, 9, and 11, it'd be tough to go too bad, wouldn't it!?! Really to get below 12th, Arizona State would have to lose both and USC would have to lose to UCLA... and Oregon would have to lose one as well. Sorry WAC. Just beat Washington, or else the Pac 10 will have totally ended you.
Big 12 - Only shot here is the South winner from an ugly final weekend coming back out and beating the great North winner. OU could lose to Oklahoma State..... and Texas could lose to TAMU. I've been told OSU is mathematically eliminated. So you could end up with Oklahoma coming off another loss eeking one out in San Antonio. That's really the only hope there.
So as you can see, not many doors at all anymore for the WAC to auto-qualify. It's dicey to think they might make the top 12... and it's pretty unlikely now that a big-conference winner will fall outside the top 12... with a few spots still to be vacated by the USC/ASU loser (unless they win the conference... then Oregon and the winner would probably fall out), and quite possibly one or two Big 12 teams.
It all comes down, as I said earlier, to the at-large bid. And, honestly, I still have to think they'll get that.
The rule change IS actually interesting.
Because the most unfair thing in history could happen.
The BCS could come up short of the required number... unlocking 2 to 4 more teams... and they could theoretically skip over the WAC team in the top 16!
I really don't believe that's possible, though. The BCS isn't stupid. They've been sued before.
And besides, they've got an exciting rematch with Oklahoma (UGGGG) to toss around.
But it's going to be razor close.
If Hawaii doesn't win, then lose to Washington. Otherwise it'll all be for not.
-- OK, so Kansas and Missouri will, when all is said and done, quite possibly be the highest ranked game of the year (by this I mean the final records of the two teams involved) outside of the National Championship game (or maybe even including it!). Who would have thought that!?! *sheepishly raises hand* (take a look back at my very first poll back on October 7th! I was really interested in Kansas' obscene point differential in their first 4 cupcake games. Yes, I suggested no less than probably 5 teams could be dark horses... but I was on the Kansas bandwagon early all season. Way to go me! ;-)
Anyways, beyond their point total early in the season, there is one other thing that really has stood out to me this year about them... and that's their ability to consistently beat good teams on the road. It was something Florida did last year (sans Auburn, a close game... but they beat Georgia, they beat FSU, etc). It's something even the likes of LSU and WVU haven't been able to do this year.
And the stunning thing is how brutal their road schedule has been. They've had SEVEN home games this year and only 4 real road games. But those four are som pretty strong Big 12 teams; Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They aren't upper-echelon, but have proven to be a solid second tier. And they are rewarded with Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State at home... the worst 3 teams in the league. Their cupcake OOC sched really was everything to them this year... they probably would've never got the ball rolling this year if not for those tuneups... but they have had to continuously prove they are the best out there by beating every good team they've played on the road. To look at their low SOS and banish them just isn't being fair. And they wind it all up with a neutral-site game against Missouri!?!
It will definitely be interesting to see what type of crowd shows up this weekend. And it's amazing to think that the winner of this game is one game from the National Championship.
And then Missouri. I've really forgotten about them since they were handled by Oklahoma. Yet here they are, doing what Oklahoma wasn't able to. And they've quietly looked good too.
All I know is this one is a surprise matchup of the year that's gotta be one for the ages!
-- The other sorrow this weekend, besides OU losing, has to be the daggum SEC. Kentucky finally failed for me at the most critical time... and UF is eliminated.
At the same time, the gates on the freefalling season finally seemed to close up to make a bottom floor.
What is the lowest possible BCS team now to reach the NC game? And the worst possible game?
Worst scenario:
LSU and Georgia lose this weekend badly, likely eliminating them.
The winner of the KC battle gets shellacked by the South winner next weekend, eliminating them.
West Virginia loses again.
Arizona State loses again.
VTech and Oregon both lose again.
Wow, is it still possible Oklahoma could make the NC game!?!
SPEW.
The problem is, I don't think it is. One bottom-lock is definitely Ohio State. The other is probably Kansas if nothing else. The most they can have now is 1 loss, which itself is amazing! Even if their loss is awful, 1 loss will be tough to penalize that badly.
But it's amazing to think it could. Like what if Missouri wins 80-0? And then loses 63-3? *scratches head*
I guess if you want to be absurd, the absolute bottom-lock would be #17 Illinois. They are the first team down the list beyond Ohio State that doesn't still have the chance to really lose badly.
But really the bottom of the barrel left is probably Georgia. We'll know in a week.
But it's always been good to play "what if" this year.
-- I saw the ultimate suggestion tonight... and a VERY possible... make that probable, game! The Zook Bowl!
It could happen one of two ways: #1 is the easiest... the Florida Citrus Bowl.
#2 is just as intriguing... a BCS bowl. If three more teams fall out of the top 14... or if the teams that move up cause there to not be enough "pool" BCS teams... it's a good chance. Illinois would almost certainly be the pick if that happened. Tennessee winning the SEC title (a good possibility in my opinion) would be the perfect catalyst to it all. Then we'd just need something out of the ordinary from happening... particularly a top team unexpectedly not winning their conference (specifically if UConn beat UWV). And if it doesn't happen, the Citrus Bowl (Capital One... blah blah blah) is still a good chance... though the BCS would have to take Georgia over UF (also a good possibility, if LSU wins). So if Tennessee (and LSU) win this weekend, it definitely helps the matchup along in probability! And I'd love it!
-- And my last bit of interest is in West Virginia's run of recent. Like Missouri, they've been a team I've basically overlooked since their one loss...... even as I predicted them in the NC game a long ways back vs. South Carolina.
But this team is rolling. In the last month they beat a good Mississippi State (which beat Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama), then crushed Rutgers, beat Louisville, and then held off Cincinnati on the road. People may think those teams aren't the top ones, especially the first three... but I definitely think people are overlooked how potent they still are. I could still see Louisville or Rutgers beating anyone. Meanwhile the USF loss, after they had that bad stretch, has started to look squarely respectable again... and the team is together... and don't forget White was hurt in the USF game. Honestly, UWV has to be my top choice for nationally champion at this point. I would most love to see a Kansas-UWV battle (as much for the geeky "prestige" as anything)... but I would also enjoy LSU or Missouri in the game, and think any game involving those 4 would be decent. Not so sure about ASU or OSU. Thankfully I don't have to worry about them too much.
It should be an interesting January, for once ;-)
-- Bowl projections (as much for me to consider the interesting possibilities as you to really take stock in!)
National Championship - Kansas* vs. West Virginia*
Fiesta Bowl - Georgia vs Illinois
Sugar Bowl - Tennessee* vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech* vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - USC* vs Ohio State*
Exciting!
Have a good one!
Sunday, November 18, 2007
I don't want to talk about it
Oklahoma is officially hated by officials.
But not calmed down enough to rational about the awful td -> incomplete call with a few minutes left right now. We did indeed play poorly.
But anyways, I wrote instead to give another article championing the BCS. It's not perfect, but it's at least pretty concise with a few of the reasons...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21793292/
BTW, the response opinion on that page is great, because it's really filled with holes. So please have a read with of that as well.
You see, while I'm obviously rooting for a happy BCS ending... this guy just comes off as spiteful. He just wants things to mess up. And moreover, his arguments are awful. See, the problem is that if Kansas goes undefeated and gets left out to LSU and Oregon... Oregon and LSU must be spectacular teams, considered by many to be the best. He wants logic: that's the computers which he becries. He doesn't want the public's top-ranked team to get left out: that's the polls he becries. Is it just me, or is he just whining for the sake of having things his own way. See, the other article has the exact same stance I generally do. If we add a plus one, I'll deal... but I think it's a bad idea. These people on the other hand consider this whole season to be a waste and no fun? He must be a Nebraska or Notre Dame fan!!! (He actually writes for the St Louis Post Dispatch... but from his work, it looks like he's really enamored with the NFL more than college and just wants all things to mimic his pride and joy).
Also, sorry, but there were very few scenarios where a best team should get left out of the title game... West Virginia has no leg to stand on compared to the 3 Big 12 teams or LSU/Oregon... they've played weaker opponents and lost to a weaker opponent than everyone except Oklahoma. No conference title and many tough OOC losses. I like UWV... and want a Kansas-UWV showdown now (though I wouldn't complain if LSU wins out, either)... but it is going very fairly, and I think most everyone agrees.
Does he think the presidential vote is just as "unfair"?
It's the system. We deal with it. Welcome to a scientific democracy!
Anyways, hopefully I'll do a poll tomorrow. We'll see. If I can blow my post-Texas Tech depression away!
But not calmed down enough to rational about the awful td -> incomplete call with a few minutes left right now. We did indeed play poorly.
But anyways, I wrote instead to give another article championing the BCS. It's not perfect, but it's at least pretty concise with a few of the reasons...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21793292/
BTW, the response opinion on that page is great, because it's really filled with holes. So please have a read with of that as well.
You see, while I'm obviously rooting for a happy BCS ending... this guy just comes off as spiteful. He just wants things to mess up. And moreover, his arguments are awful. See, the problem is that if Kansas goes undefeated and gets left out to LSU and Oregon... Oregon and LSU must be spectacular teams, considered by many to be the best. He wants logic: that's the computers which he becries. He doesn't want the public's top-ranked team to get left out: that's the polls he becries. Is it just me, or is he just whining for the sake of having things his own way. See, the other article has the exact same stance I generally do. If we add a plus one, I'll deal... but I think it's a bad idea. These people on the other hand consider this whole season to be a waste and no fun? He must be a Nebraska or Notre Dame fan!!! (He actually writes for the St Louis Post Dispatch... but from his work, it looks like he's really enamored with the NFL more than college and just wants all things to mimic his pride and joy).
Also, sorry, but there were very few scenarios where a best team should get left out of the title game... West Virginia has no leg to stand on compared to the 3 Big 12 teams or LSU/Oregon... they've played weaker opponents and lost to a weaker opponent than everyone except Oklahoma. No conference title and many tough OOC losses. I like UWV... and want a Kansas-UWV showdown now (though I wouldn't complain if LSU wins out, either)... but it is going very fairly, and I think most everyone agrees.
Does he think the presidential vote is just as "unfair"?
It's the system. We deal with it. Welcome to a scientific democracy!
Anyways, hopefully I'll do a poll tomorrow. We'll see. If I can blow my post-Texas Tech depression away!
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Have I mentioned how much I enjoy Matt Hayes
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AqB27vg7hwKIS9lmle120N8cvrYF?slug=tenthingstowatchthisweek&prov=tsn&type=lgns
The guy has become quite the proponent of the BCS, looks FOR the upset instead of being shocked by it, and, oh, by the way, lives in Orlando.
Brilliant.
DING!
And then the guy writes all about the upsets that could happen today! I think he even one-upped me, when he went into LSU-Mississippi (which would be great... but I'm not exactly betting on!) and Illinois-Northwestern. None of the upsets have happened so far, but we're still hoping.
It's great to have such a mind writing in college football!
Also, note Tim Tebow breaking the new record (first qb for 20 passing tds and 20 running tds in the same year!?? Really!?! Wow!). If he doesn't win Heisman now (unless it's Todd Reising?), I'll go nuts. And honestly, he was the best candidate whatever everyone else did... I'm just glad that the other competitors continue to disappear to make this simpler for people, to avoid another travesty (see 2000... not that I'm a biased fan on these things!!!).
The guy has become quite the proponent of the BCS, looks FOR the upset instead of being shocked by it, and, oh, by the way, lives in Orlando.
Brilliant.
My friend Timmy Brando thinks this confusion, this utter chaos, will eventually be the undoing of the BCS. Quite the opposite, Timmy. This unthinkable, improbable season has only strengthened the BCS.
DING!
And then the guy writes all about the upsets that could happen today! I think he even one-upped me, when he went into LSU-Mississippi (which would be great... but I'm not exactly betting on!) and Illinois-Northwestern. None of the upsets have happened so far, but we're still hoping.
It's great to have such a mind writing in college football!
Also, note Tim Tebow breaking the new record (first qb for 20 passing tds and 20 running tds in the same year!?? Really!?! Wow!). If he doesn't win Heisman now (unless it's Todd Reising?), I'll go nuts. And honestly, he was the best candidate whatever everyone else did... I'm just glad that the other competitors continue to disappear to make this simpler for people, to avoid another travesty (see 2000... not that I'm a biased fan on these things!!!).
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Out of control // Predictions Gone Awry // Mississippi State
Just was driven to write my response on the Big 12 fine of Mike Leach. (see here)
Now, I am an official. I spent the full 2006-07 school year officiating most every major sport... flag football, basketball, soccer, and softball namely).
I do have to have some affinity for leagues and organizations that stand up for their refs. To one degree, they have to. The CampusRec IM supervisor's would tend to always back their referees. And to really have any reality as an official, you need to know that foundation is behind you... that while coaches and players may question every move you make, you can stand firm because those putting on the game have your back.
But there is a point at which you have to be honest. Or at least not go over the top.
I didn't see the game.
I don't know how warranted the complaints were.
What I do see when I read the article, though is a league that is trying to be consumingly iron-fisted. I teach, and I envision a teacher who just can't get his (or her) class under control. You start raising the ante, throwing out threats, even. Half of them are just casual threats. But you do whatever you can to reign in people, because you can't have people being loose cannons.
But the HUGE problem I see is in the writing:
"The fine doubled the previous high by the league, levied twice before, against Kansas coach Mark Mangino three years ago and former Kansas State basketball coach Jim Wooldridge during the 2005-06 season."
And I immediately flash back to that disgusting game in 2004. Tough to forget.
It was the emergence of Kansas as a football team no longer to be simply overlooked entirely each week. They had a lot more work to do. But this is when they showed us they could play.
And they won that game.
The pass interference call on Kansas that negated a first down and forced them to punt was the difference between a huge upset of Texas and Texas marching back down the field to win.
And I never met a person who didn't believe that call was utter garbage.
And it's not just that it was a bad call.
It's that it stands out in my mind.
From three years ago.
Look, when a call really is bad... you have to apologize and maybe lighten up on the fines. Definitely restrain yourself from singling out the coach who got upset.
Yet here is an example of a conference wanting to come down hard by the letter of the law instead of the intent.
Yet the letter of the law itself is stupid.
That's like saying Oklahoma fans did not have the right to complain about the Oregon officiating.
Imagine if the Pac 10 had fined Oklahoma? Or if it had been a Big 12 game!?! Would they have ended up suspending Bob Stoops????
I'm not the only one who remembers this awful call from 2004, either. When so many people are scarred into saving it in long-use brain cells... it's a big deal.
And I think I may remember the Kansas State basketball deal, too. Was it against Oklahoma State perhaps?
Doesn't matter.
Conferences are going over the top.
Another example of letter-of-rule being employed over intent, and ruining the fun of the game: Kentucky's win over LSU, and the hard-line SEC rule about fans on the field.
Correct me if I'm totally wrong, but I'm guessing the officiating stank in the Texas Tech game?
It's sad that the Big 12 opting to fine a coach indicates to me the officiating stank.
Welcome to college football in this day and age.
By the way, want some laughs?
I stumbled back across ESPN's preseason college football prediction set. HILARIOUS! Highlights include:
"1. The Wisconsin-Michigan winner takes the Big Ten title
Both teams will be unbeaten going into their Nov. 10 showdown at Camp Randall Stadium."
And continuing to:
"The Badgers' biggest scare will come at Penn State on Oct. 13, and they'll squeak out a win at Ohio State on Nov. 3.
The Wolverines will survive early-season shootouts against Oregon and Penn State, then the defense will hit its stride. Michigan will beat Wisconsin by a field goal, then lose to Ohio State the following week, costing the Wolverines a spot in the BCS Championship Game." -- if by survive you mean be decimated and by Penn State you mean "!?!?!?!?!?!?", you're absolutely right. And look at that stout, undefeated, Wisconsin team. Wooowhee they are good ;-)
"the Hawkeyes will rebound to win their last six games and finish 10-2. Coach Kirk Ferentz will become a hot commodity again for a job in the NFL." -- Captain Kirk is garnering more attention from the NFL.
"5. Minnesota will be better than Michigan State"; "The Gophers will go bowling in 2007;" -- I hear leagues are forming fall the winter at the local AMF.
"Hurricanes, Seminoles will challenge Hokies for ACC crown" -- ...
"1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC
The Hokies will have one of the country's best defenses, led by linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and cornerback Brandon Flowers. The offense will be better, but it won't score enough points in Week 2 at LSU, which will be Virginia Tech's only loss of the season" -- Might well still happen... but just found it funny. A little too good?
"Randy Shannon's tough-as-nails approach will make the Orange Bowl a tough place for opponents to play in Miami's last season there." -- Hi, we're Virginia. Nice to meet you.
"1. Louisville will win the league because the similarity in offensive styles between departed coach Bobby Petrino and his successor, Steve Kragthorpe, has meant a smooth transition for quarterback Brian Brohm and Co." -- The company sold stock. The good news: it does like both 2007 teams have similar styles - losing.
"3. Rutgers tailback Ray Rice won't match last season's total of 1,794 yards." -- He has 1500 yards with games vs Pitt and Louisville to go. I guess theoretically he could wind up with 1,793, and the prediction would be right???
"5. UConn's first three opponents won a total of seven games last year, six of them by I-AA Maine. The Black Bears, Duke and Temple will allow a young team to get out the jitters. But they won't prepare the Huskies for playing at Pittsburgh in Game 4. That's the day we discover how much rebuilding coach Randy Edsall has completed." -- Yeah, about that.
"5. The new coaches will make an immediate impact.
Stanford's Jim Harbaugh will tick off somebody with his fresh mouth. Arizona State's Dennis Erickson will start 7-0 before things get dicey down the stretch." -- We get a partial DING... with ASU indeed starting 7-0. But dicey sounds a little strong. And perhaps Harbaugh said something about USC sucking?
"2. LSU will play USC in the BCS championship game
Tigers coach Les Miles will get his wish with a date against the Trojans in the Jan. 7 BCS National Championship Game in the Louisiana Superdome. After USC easily defeats the Tigers in front of LSU's home crowd, Miles will leave to become head coach at Michigan, replacing Lloyd Carr, who will retire after winning the Rose Bowl (and, of course, losing to Ohio State)." -- Probably the cream of the "crop" here. So wrong in so many ways.
We just love how USC has been so dominant.
And you get through the whole bit about Miles leaving to coach Michigan and you start to think there might be some hidden foresight hidden in there, until... BZZT. Maybe if you stretch the meaning of the word retire in new and creative ways!?!
"3. Nick Saban loses to LSU (but beats Auburn)
Saban's first season at Alabama will be a successful one, but the Crimson Tide won't come close to catching LSU in the SEC West. Alabama will lose twice in September and to LSU in November, but Saban will win the two games that matter most to Crimson Tide fans -- against Tennessee and Auburn." -- Mainly just props for this prediction... though I bet they didn't see how Alabama would blow the LSU game. But 2 Sept losses... check! Beating Tennessee... check! Beating Auburn... Me thinks I'll get back to you.
"4. The Egg Bowl loser gets poached
Ole Miss and Mississippi State will continue to struggle, and both will have losing records going into the Nov. 23 Egg Bowl" -- Or Mississippi State will be bowl eligible two weeks prior to the game. You were just so very close.
"5. The SEC East champion will have two losses
Only three times in the last 15 years has the SEC East champion had more than one loss. That number should increase. Kentucky and Vanderbilt will each upset at least one of the other four teams in the division -- and possibly more -- causing havoc in the East. LSU will defeat either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game in the Georgia Dome, possibly opening the door for Arkansas to receive a BCS at-large berth, along with the unbeaten Tigers." -- Major, major props to this prediction right here. He may've sold the Rebels short, but he knew what he was talking about in the east. Every east team already has two losses... and we could still end up with a winner with THREE SEC losses. *(Arkansas + BCS) = I'm sorry, you can have a makeup prediction instead*
"3. No division in college football has a better group of quarterbacks than the [Big 12] South. Who wins first-team All-Big-12? Graham Harrell of Texas Tech will have the best numbers, Colt McCoy of Texas will have the most wins, Bobby Reid of Oklahoma State will be the most electrifying, and Stephen McGee of Texas A&M just will get the job done. But my pick is from the North: Sam Keller of Nebraska. -- This Oklahoma fan just smiles. Then smiles some more. :-)
"4. Missouri will disappoint again. " -- How disappointing.
And in the HOT-OR-NOT: NOT -> "Big Ten. Outside of Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and reloading Ohio State, few Big Ten teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason. Michigan State and Minnesota have new coaches, and Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern continue to struggle. No wonder people are jumping off the Big Ten bandwagon." -- Yeah, um. I think they got the "power" teams mixed up. Illinois? Indiana? Holy moley, I just checked........ 10? bowl-eligible teams already!?! There's 32 bowl games and already 59 bowl-eligible teams in the NCAA. And 17 teams with 5 wins.
One final article worth reading: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AkScjH1YCGnU3eqLn239ogwcvrYF?slug=dw-croomed111307&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Now, I am an official. I spent the full 2006-07 school year officiating most every major sport... flag football, basketball, soccer, and softball namely).
I do have to have some affinity for leagues and organizations that stand up for their refs. To one degree, they have to. The CampusRec IM supervisor's would tend to always back their referees. And to really have any reality as an official, you need to know that foundation is behind you... that while coaches and players may question every move you make, you can stand firm because those putting on the game have your back.
But there is a point at which you have to be honest. Or at least not go over the top.
I didn't see the game.
I don't know how warranted the complaints were.
What I do see when I read the article, though is a league that is trying to be consumingly iron-fisted. I teach, and I envision a teacher who just can't get his (or her) class under control. You start raising the ante, throwing out threats, even. Half of them are just casual threats. But you do whatever you can to reign in people, because you can't have people being loose cannons.
But the HUGE problem I see is in the writing:
"The fine doubled the previous high by the league, levied twice before, against Kansas coach Mark Mangino three years ago and former Kansas State basketball coach Jim Wooldridge during the 2005-06 season."
And I immediately flash back to that disgusting game in 2004. Tough to forget.
It was the emergence of Kansas as a football team no longer to be simply overlooked entirely each week. They had a lot more work to do. But this is when they showed us they could play.
And they won that game.
The pass interference call on Kansas that negated a first down and forced them to punt was the difference between a huge upset of Texas and Texas marching back down the field to win.
And I never met a person who didn't believe that call was utter garbage.
And it's not just that it was a bad call.
It's that it stands out in my mind.
From three years ago.
Look, when a call really is bad... you have to apologize and maybe lighten up on the fines. Definitely restrain yourself from singling out the coach who got upset.
Yet here is an example of a conference wanting to come down hard by the letter of the law instead of the intent.
Yet the letter of the law itself is stupid.
That's like saying Oklahoma fans did not have the right to complain about the Oregon officiating.
Imagine if the Pac 10 had fined Oklahoma? Or if it had been a Big 12 game!?! Would they have ended up suspending Bob Stoops????
I'm not the only one who remembers this awful call from 2004, either. When so many people are scarred into saving it in long-use brain cells... it's a big deal.
And I think I may remember the Kansas State basketball deal, too. Was it against Oklahoma State perhaps?
Doesn't matter.
Conferences are going over the top.
Another example of letter-of-rule being employed over intent, and ruining the fun of the game: Kentucky's win over LSU, and the hard-line SEC rule about fans on the field.
Correct me if I'm totally wrong, but I'm guessing the officiating stank in the Texas Tech game?
It's sad that the Big 12 opting to fine a coach indicates to me the officiating stank.
Welcome to college football in this day and age.
By the way, want some laughs?
I stumbled back across ESPN's preseason college football prediction set. HILARIOUS! Highlights include:
"1. The Wisconsin-Michigan winner takes the Big Ten title
Both teams will be unbeaten going into their Nov. 10 showdown at Camp Randall Stadium."
And continuing to:
"The Badgers' biggest scare will come at Penn State on Oct. 13, and they'll squeak out a win at Ohio State on Nov. 3.
The Wolverines will survive early-season shootouts against Oregon and Penn State, then the defense will hit its stride. Michigan will beat Wisconsin by a field goal, then lose to Ohio State the following week, costing the Wolverines a spot in the BCS Championship Game." -- if by survive you mean be decimated and by Penn State you mean "!?!?!?!?!?!?", you're absolutely right. And look at that stout, undefeated, Wisconsin team. Wooowhee they are good ;-)
"the Hawkeyes will rebound to win their last six games and finish 10-2. Coach Kirk Ferentz will become a hot commodity again for a job in the NFL." -- Captain Kirk is garnering more attention from the NFL.
"5. Minnesota will be better than Michigan State"; "The Gophers will go bowling in 2007;" -- I hear leagues are forming fall the winter at the local AMF.
"Hurricanes, Seminoles will challenge Hokies for ACC crown" -- ...
"1. Virginia Tech will win the ACC
The Hokies will have one of the country's best defenses, led by linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and cornerback Brandon Flowers. The offense will be better, but it won't score enough points in Week 2 at LSU, which will be Virginia Tech's only loss of the season" -- Might well still happen... but just found it funny. A little too good?
"Randy Shannon's tough-as-nails approach will make the Orange Bowl a tough place for opponents to play in Miami's last season there." -- Hi, we're Virginia. Nice to meet you.
"1. Louisville will win the league because the similarity in offensive styles between departed coach Bobby Petrino and his successor, Steve Kragthorpe, has meant a smooth transition for quarterback Brian Brohm and Co." -- The company sold stock. The good news: it does like both 2007 teams have similar styles - losing.
"3. Rutgers tailback Ray Rice won't match last season's total of 1,794 yards." -- He has 1500 yards with games vs Pitt and Louisville to go. I guess theoretically he could wind up with 1,793, and the prediction would be right???
"5. UConn's first three opponents won a total of seven games last year, six of them by I-AA Maine. The Black Bears, Duke and Temple will allow a young team to get out the jitters. But they won't prepare the Huskies for playing at Pittsburgh in Game 4. That's the day we discover how much rebuilding coach Randy Edsall has completed." -- Yeah, about that.
"5. The new coaches will make an immediate impact.
Stanford's Jim Harbaugh will tick off somebody with his fresh mouth. Arizona State's Dennis Erickson will start 7-0 before things get dicey down the stretch." -- We get a partial DING... with ASU indeed starting 7-0. But dicey sounds a little strong. And perhaps Harbaugh said something about USC sucking?
"2. LSU will play USC in the BCS championship game
Tigers coach Les Miles will get his wish with a date against the Trojans in the Jan. 7 BCS National Championship Game in the Louisiana Superdome. After USC easily defeats the Tigers in front of LSU's home crowd, Miles will leave to become head coach at Michigan, replacing Lloyd Carr, who will retire after winning the Rose Bowl (and, of course, losing to Ohio State)." -- Probably the cream of the "crop" here. So wrong in so many ways.
We just love how USC has been so dominant.
And you get through the whole bit about Miles leaving to coach Michigan and you start to think there might be some hidden foresight hidden in there, until... BZZT. Maybe if you stretch the meaning of the word retire in new and creative ways!?!
"3. Nick Saban loses to LSU (but beats Auburn)
Saban's first season at Alabama will be a successful one, but the Crimson Tide won't come close to catching LSU in the SEC West. Alabama will lose twice in September and to LSU in November, but Saban will win the two games that matter most to Crimson Tide fans -- against Tennessee and Auburn." -- Mainly just props for this prediction... though I bet they didn't see how Alabama would blow the LSU game. But 2 Sept losses... check! Beating Tennessee... check! Beating Auburn... Me thinks I'll get back to you.
"4. The Egg Bowl loser gets poached
Ole Miss and Mississippi State will continue to struggle, and both will have losing records going into the Nov. 23 Egg Bowl" -- Or Mississippi State will be bowl eligible two weeks prior to the game. You were just so very close.
"5. The SEC East champion will have two losses
Only three times in the last 15 years has the SEC East champion had more than one loss. That number should increase. Kentucky and Vanderbilt will each upset at least one of the other four teams in the division -- and possibly more -- causing havoc in the East. LSU will defeat either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game in the Georgia Dome, possibly opening the door for Arkansas to receive a BCS at-large berth, along with the unbeaten Tigers." -- Major, major props to this prediction right here. He may've sold the Rebels short, but he knew what he was talking about in the east. Every east team already has two losses... and we could still end up with a winner with THREE SEC losses. *(Arkansas + BCS) = I'm sorry, you can have a makeup prediction instead*
"3. No division in college football has a better group of quarterbacks than the [Big 12] South. Who wins first-team All-Big-12? Graham Harrell of Texas Tech will have the best numbers, Colt McCoy of Texas will have the most wins, Bobby Reid of Oklahoma State will be the most electrifying, and Stephen McGee of Texas A&M just will get the job done. But my pick is from the North: Sam Keller of Nebraska. -- This Oklahoma fan just smiles. Then smiles some more. :-)
"4. Missouri will disappoint again. " -- How disappointing.
And in the HOT-OR-NOT: NOT -> "Big Ten. Outside of Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and reloading Ohio State, few Big Ten teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason. Michigan State and Minnesota have new coaches, and Illinois, Indiana and Northwestern continue to struggle. No wonder people are jumping off the Big Ten bandwagon." -- Yeah, um. I think they got the "power" teams mixed up. Illinois? Indiana? Holy moley, I just checked........ 10? bowl-eligible teams already!?! There's 32 bowl games and already 59 bowl-eligible teams in the NCAA. And 17 teams with 5 wins.
One final article worth reading: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AkScjH1YCGnU3eqLn239ogwcvrYF?slug=dw-croomed111307&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Top 25 / Bowl Discussion (Nov 11)
Oh boy, another week, and more craziness.
This weekend wasn't obsurd with upsets, but it did continue to shake things up, and it started at the top. I can grin about dropping Boston College one week before they lost, and doing the same to Ohio State. But the point is, craziness abounds.
Take a look at this for just an idea of the craziness we're dealing with.
People seem to think that, because I champion the BCS, that I'm not interested in or scared of mass chaos.
The joke is on you, then. I love this!
And it may even be quietly boosting the bowls! This weekend stands out... it was like a weekend where there are tons of top-25 matchups... except there weren't (there were 2). But it seems like everyone ranked 26-45 was playing a top 25 team. There were so many intriguing matchups, commonly pitting a team that is a typical powerhouse (FSU, South Carolina) or fallen title contender themselves (Cincinnati, Illinois) against an equally interesting top 25'er.
And if this weekend was a lot of fun... it only sniffs at the flavor the bowls are taking on. Exciting potential matchups about! 10 teams from the SEC are bowl eligible (possibly 11 with a Vandy upset), and outside of playing Arkansas, I argue they are all very intriguing teams to meet up with (just in case you argue, Mississippi State beat Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn to make their bowl... there's LSU and Georgia up in the top 10... Auburn and Tennessee have been all over the map but filled with athletes... and Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina were all in the title hunt this year. Throw in an exciting mix of forgotten "duds" like Louisville, Wisconsin, and maybe even Nebraska paired with some teams really on fire after slow starts (NC State, Iowa, Utah), and we're looking at something awesome! Florida State might get Kentucky or Illinois or Cal or even Kansas still in a mid-tier bowl, for goodness sakes!
And we can't forget the kinds of stories a bowl for Indiana will bring.
There isn't enough room for all the interesting possibilities to come true. Some 6 win teams will miss bowl games, which'll be a major pity. No one from the SEC should be left out. Not even if they get 11. I see this being a tough year for small conference at-large births in bowls. It's going to be so exciting to see which teams can make this bubble. But if we were talking a 16 team playoff, we'd now be looking at almost having 2 WAC teams eligible, and 3 loss Tennessee knocking on the door. And there are still 2-3 weeks to go. Two loss teams have now made it to the doorstep of what would be an 8-team playoff format... while Hawaii sits well back. And, oh yeah, there's still 2-3 weeks left, and more teams (Big 12, SEC) WILL lose.
Oh man, so much to talk about!
But let's get to the new top-25 first...
1 Kansas 10-0 / win @ Oklahoma State || 0
2 LSU 9-1 / win vs Louisiana Tech || +2
3 Oregon 8-1 / OFF || 0
4 Oklahoma 9-1 / win vs Baylor || +2
5 West Virginia 8-1 / win vs Louisville || 0
6 Arizona State 9-1 / win @ UCLA || +1
7 Missouri 9-1 / win vs TAMU || +1
8 Ohio State 10-1 / loss vs Illinois || -6
9 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Fresno State || 0
10 Georgia 8-2 / win vs Auburn || +3
11 Florida 7-3 / win @ South Carolina || +3
12 USC 8-2 / win @ California || +5
13 Virginia Tech 8-2 / win vs Florida State || -1
14 Boise State 9-1 / win @ Utah State || +5
15 Texas 9-2 / win vs Texas Tech || +5
16 Clemson 8-2 / win vs Wake Forest || +2
17 Tennessee 7-3 / win vs Arkansas || -1
18 Virginia 9-2 / win @ Miami || +5
19 Illinois 8-3 / win @ Ohio State || NR
20 Boston College 8-2 / loss @ Maryland || -10
21 Connecticut 8-2 / loss @ Cincinnati || -10
22 Wisconsin 8-3 / win vs Michigan || NR
23 Penn State 8-3 / win @ Temple || NR
24 Cincinnati 8-2 / win vs Connecticut || NR
25 Kentucky 7-3 / win @ Vanderbilt || -3
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Michigan, Mississippi State, South Florida, Auburn, California, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Florida State, Alabama, Rutgers, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Utah, Fresno State, Arkansas, Maryland, New Mexico, Air Force, BYU.
Fallen out: Michigan, Auburn, Florida State, Alabama
Discussion:
It's finally become very clear: the argument appears to have settled to 4 teams (well, 6, really). The first consideration is where the undefeated teams should go. It could be really ugly if Kansas wins out and still manages to miss the National Championship game. It would really confirm what I've started to believe: that there isn't so much as an east coast bias, as there is a bias against the Big 12. So much has been made of how Pac 10 teams get a raw deal. I do remember when USC didn't get the title game when Carson Palmer was there, even though they were on a run and looked stout. But they got what they earned; they lost to Cal. USC, meanwhile, has continued to hold a high position in the rankings, even the week after they lost to Stanford. I still think that was totally egregious. Likewise, until this week Cal has continued to hang around the rankings. Arizona State didn't get a lot of love... but they also hadn't played anyone. They still got up to #3 or 4, didn't they??? And Oregon is getting a lot discussion (and the USC game was on national tv). Meanwhile, undefeated Kansas keeps coming in behind LSU and Oregon, despite gaining one big win after another. Oklahoma and Missouri, with one loss each, also come in well behind LSU/Oregon.... which is pretty much quite fair... but still, no particular love. The biggest boost to the Big 12 continues to be Texas, who keeps moving up after winning poor games. But so many teams are falling, it's hard not to.
That will be an admittedly huge knock against the BCS. If it ends up that LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, and one of the 3 Big 12 teams win out... a 4 team playoff does look very nice this year.
That is this year, and this year only, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen.
So the real question comes down to comparing 1 loss teams. The week Kentucky beat LSU, the Oregon/LSU debate was a very interesting and important feeling one... and it just keeps going. It may well end up quite settled as they both get in. I really don't think Oklahoma, Missouri, or West Virginia have anything to say if Kansas falls out and LSU/Oregon hold out. Can you imagine, though, if Oregon's entire season falls around that goalline fumble!?! Their complete dominance of Michigan will hopefully be the shining element that keeps them in position 2... unless Kansas wins out. That will be the most painful, difficult decision of the year: Oregon or Kansas. It does look like Oklahoma has a shot to pass Oregon if they win out as well. I'm a huge Oklahoma fan, but you've gotta be kidding me. Then the Pac 10 negative-bias will have every bit of evidence it needs. But I bet/hope pollsters will do everything they have to to keep that from happening.
A couple interesting matchups are right up there near the top of possible:
1. LSU vs Oklahoma - how intriguing that after the greatest season of insanity in memorable history... we'd end up with two of the four teams we thought were five steps above every other... meeting up in the title game. LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and USC didn't live up to their purported abilities after being spectacular early in the season... and even if Oklahoma and LSU did end up in Baton Rouge... neither team has looked terribly superb even beyond their loss (see LSU, which should've lost to Alabama and Florida, and Oklahoma which has beaten quite a few weaker teams by less-than-brilliant margins (see Iowa State game in particular)). And, is it me, or does LSU PLAN to make national championship games only when they are in their back yard!?! And how intriguing it'd be an Oklahoma-LSU rematch 4 years after the last one in Baton Rouge!?!
2. Oregon vs Oklahoma - if you didn't read that article I gave up top of today's post... you should. It's hilarious when it considers the rematch of all rematches. Boy, what a battle it would be. And it would be pure enjoyment and just desserts to see constant replay of the Absurdity in Eugene-ity. Maybe the refs would end up suspended again! It'd be the fourth meeting in 4 years between Oregon and Oklahoma... rivalry!?! Of course Oklahoma has 2 wins and 1 non-concluded game in the 3 so far!
This one is also most interesting to me right now, because if Oklahoma DOES win out (still a TON of work to do), this is probably the most likely scenario in my mind. LSU still has Arkansas and a good SEC East team to get by. Oregon doesn't have a ton left. This one isn't just possible, it's quite likely!
Also humorous in that article: if Oregon doesn't make the national title game for whatever reason, and Michigan wins next week, the Rose Bowl HAS to take Michigan and Oregon in a rematch. That's both boring and intriguing!
If Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas wins out, then I believe they have to get the nod over West Virginia. UWV has been more decimated by the crumbling of the Big East through the season than by anything else. Louisville might not make a bowl, and their supposed breakout team, the team they lost to, has fallen on real tough times. Rutgers is very mercurial, and the OOC loss to Maryland is a tough bullet.
Hawaii, on the other hand, is starting to gain my respect. They keep beating tougher and tougher opponents. I'm finally starting to believe they might just make it through the finish line that is Washington.
Their SOS is still absurdly weak compared to any of the top teams. Even if they have no losses, they really can't compare to any of the one-loss teams. They have no really big wins, and have played so many poor teams that they really don't have a chance. They settle in the polls right now right near 2-loss Georgia, as well... and if Georgia wins out, I really have to give the Bulldogs the nod as well.
It's a pity that BCS teams wouldn't play Hawaii this year. Read this article by Matt Hayes (the greatest writer in sports) for more info. How prophetic!
But Hawaii does still have one big, gigantic, really impossible game... and one I expect them to lose. Boise State looks every bit last year's team as they continue to sweep through their schedule. Not often you get what'll probably be a top-15 game between two teams in a minor conference! And the big game was moved up to a 9:00 PM start to get people to watch! If I'm at someone's house with cable, I'll definitely watch (unless someone stumbles before then). The winner SHOULD make a BCS bowl... especially if Michigan beats Ohio State next week (likely opening up the top 16 rule). Hawaii fell a couple spots last week, but can only improve slowly in the computers... and Boise keeps moving up rapidly as teams around them fall away. A win over the opponent should open up a BCS game. More about that in a minute.
-- So much for the Big 12 North's resurrection. With 1 week left in conference play (plus a KSU game versus Fresno State)... only Missouri and Kansas are bowl eligible! First Nebraska flamed out... but now I'm left wondering where Colorado and Kansas State left. They were top teams. Now they are duds. Meanwhile the south SOMEHOW has 4 qualified teams and should add the 5th next week if Oklahoma State handles Baylor. Weird.
-- NC State looks GOOD. Yes, they ended up struggling to beat North Carolina... but the quick start they jumped out to (24-10 at halftime) and their resiliency to win continues to show me they aren't the team they were in the first half, which lost 5 out of 6. Of course, if we look back, those 5 losses aren't THAT bad (UCF (7-3, one of the best non-WAC small conf teams), Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and FSU). Their only win being a struggle versus Wofford definitely did make them look like one of the worst teams in the country early in October. But beating East Carolina was a huge shock. Virginia shouldn't feel quite so bad about their loss to NCSU a few weeks ago. I'm not sure if NC State can continue their roll versus Wake Forest next week.... but if they do... THEY WILL HAVE QUALIFIED FOR A BOWL!?! Wow! Talk about stunning! Look out for them next year! Georgia and NC State would be a stunning BCS title game next year, huh? (Don't count out Florida, though!).
-- This season continues to be the ultimate year of momentum. How many top teams have stumbled... then added a couple more losses immediately after? Boston College joins the large collection this week, which already includes South Florida, California, Louisville, Rutgers, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Texas, Colorado, Texas Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Purdue, UCLA, and Texas A&M. Each of those teams has lost at least 2 games directly after being ranked! I have never seen anything like this before. Add in teams like NC State and Utah which have turned around awful starts to be on fire... it has definitely been about stringing games!
-- UCF is in control of their own destiny once more! East Carolina has been a very perplexing team, earning rankings from me at one point this season, but then losing to 1-5 NC State a few weeks back and then Marshall this week. Weird. At Southern Methodist (1-9) should (better be) an easy win, then closing at home versus UTEP (4-6) should give them the edge. I hope so!
-- Kansas has 4 quality wins on the road (Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State). None of the wins look that good anymore, since the teams they have beaten have fallen on hard teams... but they were all big road wins. All they have left is what should be an easy Iowa State win (though I bet they struggle more than they should), then the big Missouri battle at home. If the stats say anything, they should roll into San Antonio going strong. A "road" game versus Oklahoma is a perfect final test to see if this "Cinderella" is for real. BTW, is it just me, or should Todd Reesing be a Heisman contender!?! 151.8 QB rating, 2647 yards, 26 td to only 4 int, and leading the team through another tough game. Yesterday was the first time I've gotten to see much of Okie State, but they continue to just stand up where all the others are folding.
-- Let's play chaos monger, and have a little fun. Let's see how ridiculous of a BCS Title game we could still get.
Based upon the projected BCS at tellshowbcs.com ...
# LSU #1 loses the SEC title game to Tennessee (Georgia loses to Kentucky) or Georgia (who lose to Georgia Tech the final week of the season).
# Oregon gets upset in one of their final three games (a rebounding Arizona team, Oregon State, and UCLA aren't exactly cupcakes).
# Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, Missouri DESTROYS Kansas, and then we have a 2 loss Big 12 champ, with Kansas outside with 1 loss.
# West Virginia loses to UConn or Cincy.
# Michigan beats Ohio State
# USC beats Arizona State
# The Atlantic winner (BC or Clemson) beats the Coastal winner (VT or UVa)
# Texas loses to TAMU
Quite a list of surprises that would need to come true, but few, if any, should be considered ridiculous or nearly impossible. What if this all comes together (aka, we have another week or two like back in October)?
Who is in the national championship game!?! Is it USC and Hawaii!?!?!?!? Or Kansas, even after getting destroyed? Or who!?!?!??!! Could be insanity! Ok, how about adding in USC losing to UCLA, Hawaii losing to Boise, and Missouri losing @KSU this week before beating Kansas (thus giving KU the north), then Kansas losing again to Oklahoma, who loses to OSU/TTech earlier on. Ummmmmm, what do we do!?! YUCK! Yeah, this probably won't happen. But if you are a fan of a top 15, you have to realize you still have a glimmer of hope. Don't forget the insanity that transpired in 2001, in which a Nebraska team that lost over Thanksgiving weekend made the National Championship game after every one of note (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Florida, Washington State, Louisville, BYU) lost following that game. Ohio State, Arizona State, and Georgia need to realize they still do have a shot... and even (gag) Hawaii.
-- Last, but not least, let's talk bowls. The enemies of the BCS may get a strange victory this year: the BCS may have a different problem than their typical one... they may end up short of quality at-large teams. Usually it's the argument over which high-caliber team should get the at-large (see: Texas/Cal issue in 2005). Or maybe the issue has been a small conference team struggling to get their fair shot at the BCS.
Neither of those will be issues this year!
The addition of the 5th BCS bowl served to open the door more to non-BCS conference teams (which worked well for Boise State) and make room for 1 or 2 more highly deserving teams (quieting forever the Texas/Cal issue)..... and, oh yeah, $$$$$$$$.
Well, it is starting to be a problem this year.
And then we meet the problem:
(from bcsfootball.org's official rules)
"No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks."
Breakdown time:
There are 6 automatic qualifying conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and ACC).
So we need 4 more teams to fill the 10 slots. Time for more breakdown (and a * means I'm predicting they will win the conference):
~ SEC should definitely get 2, whether or not LSU wins the title. The only way this can fail is a very obscure possibility LSU wins the title and Georgia and Florida fall out of the top 14, and Tennessee/Kentucky don't move in, or LSU freefalls to three straight losses and likewise happens. Or their qualifying team doesn't have 9 wins. All very unlikely.
Summary: SEC gets 2 (I'll go with Georgia* and LSU).
~ Big 12 will PROBABLY get 2. With 3 teams in the top 6, a ton would have to happen to have two slide out. Plus, Texas is hovering about 13th. Now at least two of the 3 teams at 3,4, and 6 will lose because Missouri and Kansas play and then the winner (barring a Missouri loss next week) plays Oklahoma. But still, a 2-loss Big 12 non-champion team should make the top 14... a one loss Kansas definitely would.
Summary: Big 12 gets 2 (I'll go with Kansas* and Oklahoma)
~ Pac 10 isn't quite as set as the Big 12/SEC, but should end up sweet barring a bad string of events. Oregon is a lock barring two more losses, while the winner of Arizona State-USC game should be on the inside as well (barring UCLA messing things up). Of course, beyond those three, there is nothing, so a collapse would knock them out.
Summary: Pac 10 has a good chance to get 12 (I'll go with Oregon* and USC)
Then things get ugly.
~ Michigan and Ohio State losing yesterday obliterate the Big 10's chances to enter 2 teams. Illinois is now their second highest team at 21. Michigan winning next week auto-qualifies them... but then OSU has two straight losses and might slide out of the top 14. Having them make it is no celebration for the BCS either, as they would be reeling. And a Michigan win opens up the non-BCS-conference rule to the top 16, likely. Oh, and if Michigan loses, they wouldn't even have the requisite 9 wins to make the BCS, so who cares what rank they end up with?
Summary: Big 10 could conceivably get 2, but will need some things to fall their way. (I'll take Ohio State*)
~ Big East doesn't look very good either. The West Virginia-UConn game may well decide the conference next week... but if UWV wins, Cincy can still knock it down into a three-way tie next week. Considering West Virginia is the only team in the conference above 23rd, the Big East needs to have UConn win vs WVU and then have West Virginia come back and beat Cincy to get 2. And avoid any further upsets.
Summary: Almost certainly 1 team (I take West Virginia*)
~ Last, but not least, the ACC. Definitely the most-muddled. A lot still to be worked out. Neither division winner has been settled yet. They have teams at (projected) 10 (VTech), 14 (Virginia), 15 (Clemson), and 16 (BC). But VTech still plays Virginia and Clemson still plays BC... and then the winners meet up. Plus, Clemson still has South Carolina on their schedule and BC and VTech still have Miami. ACC could qualify two easily... or could end up with a huge mess and no chance at 2 teams (which has been a common ending in the ACC recently). Am I right in realizing that NC STATE still has an outside shot at the Atlantic title and possible auto-BCS birth!?!?! (NOTE: no I'm not... they can end in a three way tie with BC and Clemson... but can't get in :-(). I think the whole world would ROFL if that one came to fruition, though! For the sake of confusion, let's consider the more chaotic possibility: only 1 team comes through the muck. It is mathematically down to 4 teams for the title, though (BC, Clemson, VTech, Uva)
Summary: 2 quite possible, or raw sewage quite possible. Going with 1 attm (I'll go with Clemson*)
~ Other: We've still only got 9. So the BCS may actually NEED Boise State/Hawaii!!! I see Hawaii is projected around 16 or 17 this week, with Boise one spot behind. You'd think that Hawaii would be higher... they beat a good Fresno State team yesterday. They have a lot of room to improve in the computers, and if teams keep losing (guaranteed to some degree by the conf title games), have to slowly make up some ground. Would Boise beating Hawaii be enough to keep them around 16 (if Michigan wins the Big 10, or possibly if Tennessee comes out of the SEC or someone strange works out of the ACC/Big East)? Also, note that if someone weird like NC State, Wake, or Cincy ended up winning a conference.... and a WAC team thereby made it... suddenly there'd be another slot eaten... and the best team from the Big East/ACC... or even a Pac 10/Big 12/SEC team... might miss out). But given the national interest Boise took last year, I don't think the folks down at the network would be terribly upset to have them win out. Especially if the alternative is something like a 3 loss ACC or Big East team. Worst case for all: Hawaii beats Boise, then loses to Washington. Also, it's a pity that Hawaii and Boise are in the same conference and have to play... or we could end up with TWO small-conferencers!
Summary: Quite a good shot at one (I'll go with Hawaii).
So we're looking at what could be a strange BCS.
The at-large spots in order of likelihood appear to go to:
SEC, Big 12, Pac 10, WAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10.
Of course, what if if the final 14 look like this:
5 SEC teams (3 currently in the top 14, 2 more down around 19 and 20)
3 Pac 10 teams (currently 3)
3 Big 12 teams (currently 4 in the top 14)
WVU, OSU, and the ACC winner.
Then we apparently couldn't have a fifth BCS game!!! (and this is even as we knock a Big 12 team out of the top 14, which is probably unlikely!)
A team must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 to make a BCS bowl... yet you also can't have three from a conference!
Perhaps they need to introduce some rare rules to allow a third team from a conference? Might be a tad more fair, in the end.
Anyways, finally I'll present two BCS scenarios... the one based upon the teams I listed in my summaries as my predicted 10... and then another set based upon carnage...
Predicted (and quite a good possibility) BCS:
National Title - Oregon vs Kansas
Rose Bowl - USC vs Ohio State (getting first pick because they lost Oregon... would still have pick of ASU/USC winner even if Kansas did pass Oregon in the standings).
Fiesta Bowl - LSU vs Hawaii (second pick after loss of Kansas, then final pick due to rotation order)
Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs Oklahoma (Georgia being auto, Oklahoma chosen by 1st rotation pick)
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs West Virginia (Clemson is the auto, UWV being the next to last choice out of the pool)
Might see Oklahoma and West Virginia flipped, if UWV won out and Oklahoma loses title game as I predicted. Fair enough. Some interesting games (even as USC-OSU doesn't look that exciting to me). And it looks like Oklahoma is surviving the lottery not to have to play the WAC team again! But if they win the Big 12 and LSU and Oregon win out...... uh-oh. They're almost certainly getting the WAC team AGAIN (unless none make it). I'm sure they can hype a Boise-OU rematch. Any self-respecting OU fan would HATE it, though. Talk about unfair!!! Just can't win that one!
Then, the carnage picks:
National Title game: Hawaii vs USC
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Kentucky vs Kansas
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Illinois
(if Ohio State bombed out of the top 14 and Illinois snuck in). Darn, not as disturbing as it could have been.
And for one more comparison, by Clark Evans, and probably most likely:
Ohio St-USC
Fiesta -- Kansas-Georgia
Sugar -- OU-Boise St
Orange -- Clemson-WV
Title -- LSU-Oregon
Okey doke, have a great week!
This weekend wasn't obsurd with upsets, but it did continue to shake things up, and it started at the top. I can grin about dropping Boston College one week before they lost, and doing the same to Ohio State. But the point is, craziness abounds.
Take a look at this for just an idea of the craziness we're dealing with.
People seem to think that, because I champion the BCS, that I'm not interested in or scared of mass chaos.
The joke is on you, then. I love this!
And it may even be quietly boosting the bowls! This weekend stands out... it was like a weekend where there are tons of top-25 matchups... except there weren't (there were 2). But it seems like everyone ranked 26-45 was playing a top 25 team. There were so many intriguing matchups, commonly pitting a team that is a typical powerhouse (FSU, South Carolina) or fallen title contender themselves (Cincinnati, Illinois) against an equally interesting top 25'er.
And if this weekend was a lot of fun... it only sniffs at the flavor the bowls are taking on. Exciting potential matchups about! 10 teams from the SEC are bowl eligible (possibly 11 with a Vandy upset), and outside of playing Arkansas, I argue they are all very intriguing teams to meet up with (just in case you argue, Mississippi State beat Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn to make their bowl... there's LSU and Georgia up in the top 10... Auburn and Tennessee have been all over the map but filled with athletes... and Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina were all in the title hunt this year. Throw in an exciting mix of forgotten "duds" like Louisville, Wisconsin, and maybe even Nebraska paired with some teams really on fire after slow starts (NC State, Iowa, Utah), and we're looking at something awesome! Florida State might get Kentucky or Illinois or Cal or even Kansas still in a mid-tier bowl, for goodness sakes!
And we can't forget the kinds of stories a bowl for Indiana will bring.
There isn't enough room for all the interesting possibilities to come true. Some 6 win teams will miss bowl games, which'll be a major pity. No one from the SEC should be left out. Not even if they get 11. I see this being a tough year for small conference at-large births in bowls. It's going to be so exciting to see which teams can make this bubble. But if we were talking a 16 team playoff, we'd now be looking at almost having 2 WAC teams eligible, and 3 loss Tennessee knocking on the door. And there are still 2-3 weeks to go. Two loss teams have now made it to the doorstep of what would be an 8-team playoff format... while Hawaii sits well back. And, oh yeah, there's still 2-3 weeks left, and more teams (Big 12, SEC) WILL lose.
Oh man, so much to talk about!
But let's get to the new top-25 first...
1 Kansas 10-0 / win @ Oklahoma State || 0
2 LSU 9-1 / win vs Louisiana Tech || +2
3 Oregon 8-1 / OFF || 0
4 Oklahoma 9-1 / win vs Baylor || +2
5 West Virginia 8-1 / win vs Louisville || 0
6 Arizona State 9-1 / win @ UCLA || +1
7 Missouri 9-1 / win vs TAMU || +1
8 Ohio State 10-1 / loss vs Illinois || -6
9 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Fresno State || 0
10 Georgia 8-2 / win vs Auburn || +3
11 Florida 7-3 / win @ South Carolina || +3
12 USC 8-2 / win @ California || +5
13 Virginia Tech 8-2 / win vs Florida State || -1
14 Boise State 9-1 / win @ Utah State || +5
15 Texas 9-2 / win vs Texas Tech || +5
16 Clemson 8-2 / win vs Wake Forest || +2
17 Tennessee 7-3 / win vs Arkansas || -1
18 Virginia 9-2 / win @ Miami || +5
19 Illinois 8-3 / win @ Ohio State || NR
20 Boston College 8-2 / loss @ Maryland || -10
21 Connecticut 8-2 / loss @ Cincinnati || -10
22 Wisconsin 8-3 / win vs Michigan || NR
23 Penn State 8-3 / win @ Temple || NR
24 Cincinnati 8-2 / win vs Connecticut || NR
25 Kentucky 7-3 / win @ Vanderbilt || -3
Others considered (in general order of closeness): Michigan, Mississippi State, South Florida, Auburn, California, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Florida State, Alabama, Rutgers, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Utah, Fresno State, Arkansas, Maryland, New Mexico, Air Force, BYU.
Fallen out: Michigan, Auburn, Florida State, Alabama
Discussion:
It's finally become very clear: the argument appears to have settled to 4 teams (well, 6, really). The first consideration is where the undefeated teams should go. It could be really ugly if Kansas wins out and still manages to miss the National Championship game. It would really confirm what I've started to believe: that there isn't so much as an east coast bias, as there is a bias against the Big 12. So much has been made of how Pac 10 teams get a raw deal. I do remember when USC didn't get the title game when Carson Palmer was there, even though they were on a run and looked stout. But they got what they earned; they lost to Cal. USC, meanwhile, has continued to hold a high position in the rankings, even the week after they lost to Stanford. I still think that was totally egregious. Likewise, until this week Cal has continued to hang around the rankings. Arizona State didn't get a lot of love... but they also hadn't played anyone. They still got up to #3 or 4, didn't they??? And Oregon is getting a lot discussion (and the USC game was on national tv). Meanwhile, undefeated Kansas keeps coming in behind LSU and Oregon, despite gaining one big win after another. Oklahoma and Missouri, with one loss each, also come in well behind LSU/Oregon.... which is pretty much quite fair... but still, no particular love. The biggest boost to the Big 12 continues to be Texas, who keeps moving up after winning poor games. But so many teams are falling, it's hard not to.
That will be an admittedly huge knock against the BCS. If it ends up that LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, and one of the 3 Big 12 teams win out... a 4 team playoff does look very nice this year.
That is this year, and this year only, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen.
So the real question comes down to comparing 1 loss teams. The week Kentucky beat LSU, the Oregon/LSU debate was a very interesting and important feeling one... and it just keeps going. It may well end up quite settled as they both get in. I really don't think Oklahoma, Missouri, or West Virginia have anything to say if Kansas falls out and LSU/Oregon hold out. Can you imagine, though, if Oregon's entire season falls around that goalline fumble!?! Their complete dominance of Michigan will hopefully be the shining element that keeps them in position 2... unless Kansas wins out. That will be the most painful, difficult decision of the year: Oregon or Kansas. It does look like Oklahoma has a shot to pass Oregon if they win out as well. I'm a huge Oklahoma fan, but you've gotta be kidding me. Then the Pac 10 negative-bias will have every bit of evidence it needs. But I bet/hope pollsters will do everything they have to to keep that from happening.
A couple interesting matchups are right up there near the top of possible:
1. LSU vs Oklahoma - how intriguing that after the greatest season of insanity in memorable history... we'd end up with two of the four teams we thought were five steps above every other... meeting up in the title game. LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and USC didn't live up to their purported abilities after being spectacular early in the season... and even if Oklahoma and LSU did end up in Baton Rouge... neither team has looked terribly superb even beyond their loss (see LSU, which should've lost to Alabama and Florida, and Oklahoma which has beaten quite a few weaker teams by less-than-brilliant margins (see Iowa State game in particular)). And, is it me, or does LSU PLAN to make national championship games only when they are in their back yard!?! And how intriguing it'd be an Oklahoma-LSU rematch 4 years after the last one in Baton Rouge!?!
2. Oregon vs Oklahoma - if you didn't read that article I gave up top of today's post... you should. It's hilarious when it considers the rematch of all rematches. Boy, what a battle it would be. And it would be pure enjoyment and just desserts to see constant replay of the Absurdity in Eugene-ity. Maybe the refs would end up suspended again! It'd be the fourth meeting in 4 years between Oregon and Oklahoma... rivalry!?! Of course Oklahoma has 2 wins and 1 non-concluded game in the 3 so far!
This one is also most interesting to me right now, because if Oklahoma DOES win out (still a TON of work to do), this is probably the most likely scenario in my mind. LSU still has Arkansas and a good SEC East team to get by. Oregon doesn't have a ton left. This one isn't just possible, it's quite likely!
Also humorous in that article: if Oregon doesn't make the national title game for whatever reason, and Michigan wins next week, the Rose Bowl HAS to take Michigan and Oregon in a rematch. That's both boring and intriguing!
If Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas wins out, then I believe they have to get the nod over West Virginia. UWV has been more decimated by the crumbling of the Big East through the season than by anything else. Louisville might not make a bowl, and their supposed breakout team, the team they lost to, has fallen on real tough times. Rutgers is very mercurial, and the OOC loss to Maryland is a tough bullet.
Hawaii, on the other hand, is starting to gain my respect. They keep beating tougher and tougher opponents. I'm finally starting to believe they might just make it through the finish line that is Washington.
Their SOS is still absurdly weak compared to any of the top teams. Even if they have no losses, they really can't compare to any of the one-loss teams. They have no really big wins, and have played so many poor teams that they really don't have a chance. They settle in the polls right now right near 2-loss Georgia, as well... and if Georgia wins out, I really have to give the Bulldogs the nod as well.
It's a pity that BCS teams wouldn't play Hawaii this year. Read this article by Matt Hayes (the greatest writer in sports) for more info. How prophetic!
But Hawaii does still have one big, gigantic, really impossible game... and one I expect them to lose. Boise State looks every bit last year's team as they continue to sweep through their schedule. Not often you get what'll probably be a top-15 game between two teams in a minor conference! And the big game was moved up to a 9:00 PM start to get people to watch! If I'm at someone's house with cable, I'll definitely watch (unless someone stumbles before then). The winner SHOULD make a BCS bowl... especially if Michigan beats Ohio State next week (likely opening up the top 16 rule). Hawaii fell a couple spots last week, but can only improve slowly in the computers... and Boise keeps moving up rapidly as teams around them fall away. A win over the opponent should open up a BCS game. More about that in a minute.
-- So much for the Big 12 North's resurrection. With 1 week left in conference play (plus a KSU game versus Fresno State)... only Missouri and Kansas are bowl eligible! First Nebraska flamed out... but now I'm left wondering where Colorado and Kansas State left. They were top teams. Now they are duds. Meanwhile the south SOMEHOW has 4 qualified teams and should add the 5th next week if Oklahoma State handles Baylor. Weird.
-- NC State looks GOOD. Yes, they ended up struggling to beat North Carolina... but the quick start they jumped out to (24-10 at halftime) and their resiliency to win continues to show me they aren't the team they were in the first half, which lost 5 out of 6. Of course, if we look back, those 5 losses aren't THAT bad (UCF (7-3, one of the best non-WAC small conf teams), Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and FSU). Their only win being a struggle versus Wofford definitely did make them look like one of the worst teams in the country early in October. But beating East Carolina was a huge shock. Virginia shouldn't feel quite so bad about their loss to NCSU a few weeks ago. I'm not sure if NC State can continue their roll versus Wake Forest next week.... but if they do... THEY WILL HAVE QUALIFIED FOR A BOWL!?! Wow! Talk about stunning! Look out for them next year! Georgia and NC State would be a stunning BCS title game next year, huh? (Don't count out Florida, though!).
-- This season continues to be the ultimate year of momentum. How many top teams have stumbled... then added a couple more losses immediately after? Boston College joins the large collection this week, which already includes South Florida, California, Louisville, Rutgers, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Texas, Colorado, Texas Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Purdue, UCLA, and Texas A&M. Each of those teams has lost at least 2 games directly after being ranked! I have never seen anything like this before. Add in teams like NC State and Utah which have turned around awful starts to be on fire... it has definitely been about stringing games!
-- UCF is in control of their own destiny once more! East Carolina has been a very perplexing team, earning rankings from me at one point this season, but then losing to 1-5 NC State a few weeks back and then Marshall this week. Weird. At Southern Methodist (1-9) should (better be) an easy win, then closing at home versus UTEP (4-6) should give them the edge. I hope so!
-- Kansas has 4 quality wins on the road (Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State). None of the wins look that good anymore, since the teams they have beaten have fallen on hard teams... but they were all big road wins. All they have left is what should be an easy Iowa State win (though I bet they struggle more than they should), then the big Missouri battle at home. If the stats say anything, they should roll into San Antonio going strong. A "road" game versus Oklahoma is a perfect final test to see if this "Cinderella" is for real. BTW, is it just me, or should Todd Reesing be a Heisman contender!?! 151.8 QB rating, 2647 yards, 26 td to only 4 int, and leading the team through another tough game. Yesterday was the first time I've gotten to see much of Okie State, but they continue to just stand up where all the others are folding.
-- Let's play chaos monger, and have a little fun. Let's see how ridiculous of a BCS Title game we could still get.
Based upon the projected BCS at tellshowbcs.com ...
# LSU #1 loses the SEC title game to Tennessee (Georgia loses to Kentucky) or Georgia (who lose to Georgia Tech the final week of the season).
# Oregon gets upset in one of their final three games (a rebounding Arizona team, Oregon State, and UCLA aren't exactly cupcakes).
# Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, Missouri DESTROYS Kansas, and then we have a 2 loss Big 12 champ, with Kansas outside with 1 loss.
# West Virginia loses to UConn or Cincy.
# Michigan beats Ohio State
# USC beats Arizona State
# The Atlantic winner (BC or Clemson) beats the Coastal winner (VT or UVa)
# Texas loses to TAMU
Quite a list of surprises that would need to come true, but few, if any, should be considered ridiculous or nearly impossible. What if this all comes together (aka, we have another week or two like back in October)?
Who is in the national championship game!?! Is it USC and Hawaii!?!?!?!? Or Kansas, even after getting destroyed? Or who!?!?!??!! Could be insanity! Ok, how about adding in USC losing to UCLA, Hawaii losing to Boise, and Missouri losing @KSU this week before beating Kansas (thus giving KU the north), then Kansas losing again to Oklahoma, who loses to OSU/TTech earlier on. Ummmmmm, what do we do!?! YUCK! Yeah, this probably won't happen. But if you are a fan of a top 15, you have to realize you still have a glimmer of hope. Don't forget the insanity that transpired in 2001, in which a Nebraska team that lost over Thanksgiving weekend made the National Championship game after every one of note (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Florida, Washington State, Louisville, BYU) lost following that game. Ohio State, Arizona State, and Georgia need to realize they still do have a shot... and even (gag) Hawaii.
-- Last, but not least, let's talk bowls. The enemies of the BCS may get a strange victory this year: the BCS may have a different problem than their typical one... they may end up short of quality at-large teams. Usually it's the argument over which high-caliber team should get the at-large (see: Texas/Cal issue in 2005). Or maybe the issue has been a small conference team struggling to get their fair shot at the BCS.
Neither of those will be issues this year!
The addition of the 5th BCS bowl served to open the door more to non-BCS conference teams (which worked well for Boise State) and make room for 1 or 2 more highly deserving teams (quieting forever the Texas/Cal issue)..... and, oh yeah, $$$$$$$$.
Well, it is starting to be a problem this year.
And then we meet the problem:
(from bcsfootball.org's official rules)
"No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks."
Breakdown time:
There are 6 automatic qualifying conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and ACC).
So we need 4 more teams to fill the 10 slots. Time for more breakdown (and a * means I'm predicting they will win the conference):
~ SEC should definitely get 2, whether or not LSU wins the title. The only way this can fail is a very obscure possibility LSU wins the title and Georgia and Florida fall out of the top 14, and Tennessee/Kentucky don't move in, or LSU freefalls to three straight losses and likewise happens. Or their qualifying team doesn't have 9 wins. All very unlikely.
Summary: SEC gets 2 (I'll go with Georgia* and LSU).
~ Big 12 will PROBABLY get 2. With 3 teams in the top 6, a ton would have to happen to have two slide out. Plus, Texas is hovering about 13th. Now at least two of the 3 teams at 3,4, and 6 will lose because Missouri and Kansas play and then the winner (barring a Missouri loss next week) plays Oklahoma. But still, a 2-loss Big 12 non-champion team should make the top 14... a one loss Kansas definitely would.
Summary: Big 12 gets 2 (I'll go with Kansas* and Oklahoma)
~ Pac 10 isn't quite as set as the Big 12/SEC, but should end up sweet barring a bad string of events. Oregon is a lock barring two more losses, while the winner of Arizona State-USC game should be on the inside as well (barring UCLA messing things up). Of course, beyond those three, there is nothing, so a collapse would knock them out.
Summary: Pac 10 has a good chance to get 12 (I'll go with Oregon* and USC)
Then things get ugly.
~ Michigan and Ohio State losing yesterday obliterate the Big 10's chances to enter 2 teams. Illinois is now their second highest team at 21. Michigan winning next week auto-qualifies them... but then OSU has two straight losses and might slide out of the top 14. Having them make it is no celebration for the BCS either, as they would be reeling. And a Michigan win opens up the non-BCS-conference rule to the top 16, likely. Oh, and if Michigan loses, they wouldn't even have the requisite 9 wins to make the BCS, so who cares what rank they end up with?
Summary: Big 10 could conceivably get 2, but will need some things to fall their way. (I'll take Ohio State*)
~ Big East doesn't look very good either. The West Virginia-UConn game may well decide the conference next week... but if UWV wins, Cincy can still knock it down into a three-way tie next week. Considering West Virginia is the only team in the conference above 23rd, the Big East needs to have UConn win vs WVU and then have West Virginia come back and beat Cincy to get 2. And avoid any further upsets.
Summary: Almost certainly 1 team (I take West Virginia*)
~ Last, but not least, the ACC. Definitely the most-muddled. A lot still to be worked out. Neither division winner has been settled yet. They have teams at (projected) 10 (VTech), 14 (Virginia), 15 (Clemson), and 16 (BC). But VTech still plays Virginia and Clemson still plays BC... and then the winners meet up. Plus, Clemson still has South Carolina on their schedule and BC and VTech still have Miami. ACC could qualify two easily... or could end up with a huge mess and no chance at 2 teams (which has been a common ending in the ACC recently). Am I right in realizing that NC STATE still has an outside shot at the Atlantic title and possible auto-BCS birth!?!?! (NOTE: no I'm not... they can end in a three way tie with BC and Clemson... but can't get in :-(). I think the whole world would ROFL if that one came to fruition, though! For the sake of confusion, let's consider the more chaotic possibility: only 1 team comes through the muck. It is mathematically down to 4 teams for the title, though (BC, Clemson, VTech, Uva)
Summary: 2 quite possible, or raw sewage quite possible. Going with 1 attm (I'll go with Clemson*)
~ Other: We've still only got 9. So the BCS may actually NEED Boise State/Hawaii!!! I see Hawaii is projected around 16 or 17 this week, with Boise one spot behind. You'd think that Hawaii would be higher... they beat a good Fresno State team yesterday. They have a lot of room to improve in the computers, and if teams keep losing (guaranteed to some degree by the conf title games), have to slowly make up some ground. Would Boise beating Hawaii be enough to keep them around 16 (if Michigan wins the Big 10, or possibly if Tennessee comes out of the SEC or someone strange works out of the ACC/Big East)? Also, note that if someone weird like NC State, Wake, or Cincy ended up winning a conference.... and a WAC team thereby made it... suddenly there'd be another slot eaten... and the best team from the Big East/ACC... or even a Pac 10/Big 12/SEC team... might miss out). But given the national interest Boise took last year, I don't think the folks down at the network would be terribly upset to have them win out. Especially if the alternative is something like a 3 loss ACC or Big East team. Worst case for all: Hawaii beats Boise, then loses to Washington. Also, it's a pity that Hawaii and Boise are in the same conference and have to play... or we could end up with TWO small-conferencers!
Summary: Quite a good shot at one (I'll go with Hawaii).
So we're looking at what could be a strange BCS.
The at-large spots in order of likelihood appear to go to:
SEC, Big 12, Pac 10, WAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10.
Of course, what if if the final 14 look like this:
5 SEC teams (3 currently in the top 14, 2 more down around 19 and 20)
3 Pac 10 teams (currently 3)
3 Big 12 teams (currently 4 in the top 14)
WVU, OSU, and the ACC winner.
Then we apparently couldn't have a fifth BCS game!!! (and this is even as we knock a Big 12 team out of the top 14, which is probably unlikely!)
A team must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 to make a BCS bowl... yet you also can't have three from a conference!
Perhaps they need to introduce some rare rules to allow a third team from a conference? Might be a tad more fair, in the end.
Anyways, finally I'll present two BCS scenarios... the one based upon the teams I listed in my summaries as my predicted 10... and then another set based upon carnage...
Predicted (and quite a good possibility) BCS:
National Title - Oregon vs Kansas
Rose Bowl - USC vs Ohio State (getting first pick because they lost Oregon... would still have pick of ASU/USC winner even if Kansas did pass Oregon in the standings).
Fiesta Bowl - LSU vs Hawaii (second pick after loss of Kansas, then final pick due to rotation order)
Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs Oklahoma (Georgia being auto, Oklahoma chosen by 1st rotation pick)
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs West Virginia (Clemson is the auto, UWV being the next to last choice out of the pool)
Might see Oklahoma and West Virginia flipped, if UWV won out and Oklahoma loses title game as I predicted. Fair enough. Some interesting games (even as USC-OSU doesn't look that exciting to me). And it looks like Oklahoma is surviving the lottery not to have to play the WAC team again! But if they win the Big 12 and LSU and Oregon win out...... uh-oh. They're almost certainly getting the WAC team AGAIN (unless none make it). I'm sure they can hype a Boise-OU rematch. Any self-respecting OU fan would HATE it, though. Talk about unfair!!! Just can't win that one!
Then, the carnage picks:
National Title game: Hawaii vs USC
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Kentucky vs Kansas
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Illinois
(if Ohio State bombed out of the top 14 and Illinois snuck in). Darn, not as disturbing as it could have been.
And for one more comparison, by Clark Evans, and probably most likely:
Ohio St-USC
Fiesta -- Kansas-Georgia
Sugar -- OU-Boise St
Orange -- Clemson-WV
Title -- LSU-Oregon
Okey doke, have a great week!
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Top 25 (Nov 4)
Everyone is blown away by Oregon's performance. Well, despite the fact they did show a lot... I have a different team that finally has to earn my love... and Kirk Herbstreet doesn't even have them in his top 5! Welcome the new #1, Kansas. They've done everything perfectly so far this year, winning 3 big road games and rolling in every game they should roll in. Will the perfect play end sometime soon? Only time will tell. But it's definitely starting to look nerving for both Kansas and teams like Oklahoma and West Virginia. Oregon has now made it through their conference beef and looks quite likely to end up with the 1 loss, which makes them very attractive for the title game... I think their profile matches up well with almost anyone..... and Michigan and LSU basically reduced their seasons to mostly 1 game... both eliminating serious threats (and both poised to lose late in the 3rd quarter).
It really is getting serious time!
1 Kansas 9-1 / win vs Nebraska || +1
2 Ohio State 10-0 / win vs Wisconsin || -1
3 Oregon 8-1 / win vs Arizona State || +1
4 LSU 8-1 / win @ Alabama || +2
5 West Virginia 7-1 / OFF || +2
6 Oklahoma 8-1 / win vs Texas A&M || +2
7 Arizona State 8-1 / loss @ Oregon || -4
8 Missouri 7-1 / win @ Colorado || +2
9 Hawaii 8-0 / OFF || +1
10 Boston College 8-1 / loss vs FSU || -5
11 Connecticut 7-1 / win vs Rutgers || 0
12 Virginia Tech 7-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || 0
13 Georgia 7-2 / win vs Troy || 0
14 Florida 6-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || 0
15 Michigan 8-2 / win @ Michigan State || +1
16 Tennessee 5-3 / win vs ULL || +1
17 USC 7-2 / win vs Oregon State || +1
18 Clemson 7-2 / win @ Duke || +4
19 Boise State 8-1 / win vs San Jose St || +4
20 Texas 8-2 / win @ Oklahoma State || 0
21 Auburn 7-3 / win vs Tennessee Tech || +3
22 Kentucky 6-2 / OFF || +3
23 Virginia 7-2 / win vs Wake Forest || NR
24 Florida State 6-3 / win @ Boston College || NR
25 Alabama 6-3 / loss vs LSU || -4
Others who are in there close (in general order of best to worst): Cincinnati, Virginia, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Houston, BYU, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Purdue, Fresno State, California, Illinois, Arkansas
And, look out for these teams next year, they're new teams!: Arizona, NC State
Need to be more prudent with my time and not spend hours writing about each team at the moment. If I get enough requests, I'll definitely come back here and do it tomorrow/in the future... but not time attm.
Hav ea good one!
It really is getting serious time!
1 Kansas 9-1 / win vs Nebraska || +1
2 Ohio State 10-0 / win vs Wisconsin || -1
3 Oregon 8-1 / win vs Arizona State || +1
4 LSU 8-1 / win @ Alabama || +2
5 West Virginia 7-1 / OFF || +2
6 Oklahoma 8-1 / win vs Texas A&M || +2
7 Arizona State 8-1 / loss @ Oregon || -4
8 Missouri 7-1 / win @ Colorado || +2
9 Hawaii 8-0 / OFF || +1
10 Boston College 8-1 / loss vs FSU || -5
11 Connecticut 7-1 / win vs Rutgers || 0
12 Virginia Tech 7-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || 0
13 Georgia 7-2 / win vs Troy || 0
14 Florida 6-3 / win vs Vanderbilt || 0
15 Michigan 8-2 / win @ Michigan State || +1
16 Tennessee 5-3 / win vs ULL || +1
17 USC 7-2 / win vs Oregon State || +1
18 Clemson 7-2 / win @ Duke || +4
19 Boise State 8-1 / win vs San Jose St || +4
20 Texas 8-2 / win @ Oklahoma State || 0
21 Auburn 7-3 / win vs Tennessee Tech || +3
22 Kentucky 6-2 / OFF || +3
23 Virginia 7-2 / win vs Wake Forest || NR
24 Florida State 6-3 / win @ Boston College || NR
25 Alabama 6-3 / loss vs LSU || -4
Others who are in there close (in general order of best to worst): Cincinnati, Virginia, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Houston, BYU, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Purdue, Fresno State, California, Illinois, Arkansas
And, look out for these teams next year, they're new teams!: Arizona, NC State
Need to be more prudent with my time and not spend hours writing about each team at the moment. If I get enough requests, I'll definitely come back here and do it tomorrow/in the future... but not time attm.
Hav ea good one!
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Quick note
Matt Hayes is the greatest writer in college football, barnone. He tells it like it is with incredible insight and balanced wisdom. And this just goes on the top:
"In one magnificent weekend, the league kept hope alive for two national title teams (Oregon and Arizona State), and had the weekend's two best games (Oregon-USC and Cal-Arizona State) in the process.
How do you top that, you ask? Oregon playing host to Arizona State this weekend in a BCS elimination game. (Pssst: For the eighteenth gazillion time: this delicious week-by-week madness is your playoff, everyone). "
THANK YOU!
That's all that needs be said.
"In one magnificent weekend, the league kept hope alive for two national title teams (Oregon and Arizona State), and had the weekend's two best games (Oregon-USC and Cal-Arizona State) in the process.
How do you top that, you ask? Oregon playing host to Arizona State this weekend in a BCS elimination game. (Pssst: For the eighteenth gazillion time: this delicious week-by-week madness is your playoff, everyone). "
THANK YOU!
That's all that needs be said.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Top 25 (Oct 28th)
Well I watched one of my teams officially fall out of the National Title race (even while I STILL hold out hope (maybe faint hope... but better hope than you might think! (see my discussion of UF))), the other one didn't play (and everyone is still down on them after their weak performance last week...... and two of the 5 undefeated won games after looking awful for some sizable portion of the game. And o obscene upsets to speak of. Starting to look like we're finally getting down to business maybe. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more teams fall... maybe, as the schedules hint at, in one final ugly run of destruction at the season's end.
So here comes the new top 25. The turnover of teams continues, but the undefeated teams are finally starting to suggest that at least two of them might emerge and kill off the chaos theories (all 4 major undefeateds beat top 25 teams, and arguably their strongest opponents left on the reg season schedule), and the poll gets a major overhaul this week as we finally got a much better idea on quite a few teams...
1 Ohio State 9-0 / win @ Penn State || 0
2 Kansas 8-0 / win @ Texas A&M || +4
3 Arizona State 8-0 / win vs California || +6
4 Oregon 7-1 / win vs USC || -1
5 Boston College 8-0 / win @ Virginia Tech || -3
6 LSU 7-1 / OFF || -2
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win @ Rutgers || 0
8 Oklahoma 7-1 / OFF || -3
9 Hawaii 7-0 / win vs NMSt || +2
10 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Iowa St || +3
11 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs USF || +10
12 Virginia Tech 6-2 / loss vs Boston College || -4
13 Georgia 6-2 / win vs Florida || NR
14 Florida 5-3 / loss vs Georgia || -2
15 South Florida 6-2 / loss @ UConn || -7
16 Michigan 7-2 / win vs Minnesota || +4
17 Tennessee 4-3 / win vs South Carolina || NR
18 USC 6-2 / loss @ Oregon || -1
19 South Carolina 6-3 / loss @ Tennessee || -3
20 Texas 7-2 / win vs Nebraska || -1
21 Alabama 6-2 / OFF || +1
22 Clemson 6-2 / win @ Maryland || +3
23 Boise State 7-1 / win @ Fresno State || NR
24 Auburn 6-3 / win vs Mississippi || NR
25 Kentucky 6-2 / loss vs Mississippi State || -10
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Wake Forest, Purdue, Virginia, Kansas State, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Miami, Houston, Vanderbilt, BYU, New Mexico, Maryland, Rutgers, Florida State, Fresno State, Cincinnati, Oregon State
DROPPED OUT: Virginia, Penn State, Wake Forest, Rutgers
Breakdown:
Ohio State may have been the first team labeled the best to step up and show they really are the best... at least since LSU's win over VT or USC's over Nebraska... but they looked ready to play. On the road at Penn State was a big game. And they played big football. Very, very impressive. If they win out, they should be #1 at the end, in every poll, if no one is insane.
OK, OK, that's it. I can't underrate them any longer. They've beaten three very quality Big 12 opponents on the road... and I'm ready to predict they'll beat Missouri at home to finish the year... setting up a very intriguing Big 12 Title game possibly. Yeah, they have to get there first... but Nebraska and Iowa State at home SHOULD be easy wins. The road game at Oklahoma State will be very interesting, as it'll match what I now consider the best road team in the country (THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING) versus probably the biggest homer in the nation this year in OSU. ..... Here's a very interesting possibility that is a little more possible today: all 4 undefeateds do win out..... leading to December 1st - Ohio State @ Michigan, Kansas vs. Oklahoma, Arizona St vs Arizona, and Boston College playing Virginia Tech again. And can you imagine if Arizona State is the team to lose!?! Arizona might have turned a corner today, so they'd better come out really strong if they do undefeated until that point. But everything this weekend was (4 undefeated teams playing ranked opponents), that one could be even better! Throw in LSU in the SEC title game and West Virginia playing Pitt... we could end up with one of the biggest upset days in college football history (paling even 2001) to crown a crazy year!
Arizona State makes another jump up after California... but did they really play all that well? They fell behind big early, which didn't show a lot of readiness. But I guess it just continues to show they are a late starter, as they've gotten off slow in a few games. Where a week ago I had basically already decided each undefeated team would have a loss... indeed, the national title picture has now gotten VERY interesting with some possible big arguments when the season wraps up. What if the 4 big conference teams go undefeated? I think it definitely comes down to ASU and Kansas....... and ASU probably nips in, honestly! It should be very close... but if Arizona State goes in and beats Oregon at home... they've got a win Oklahoma can only dream of (sorry, Missouri doesn't appear to be nearly the caliber). UCLA and especially Arizona will pad their numbers as well. Oh yeah, and they already have the lead in the polls. Of course, then there is the question about what happens to solid one loss teams like LSU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Some of this will sort itself out (see above in the Kansas box!). But if ASU wins out, they've earned my whole pile of respect. I don't think the Pac 10 is as good as the SEC (further evidenced by UCLA's loss today), but if ASU wins them all, in my mind, I'd just nip them above a one loss team.
4 vs 5 was a really tough choice. Additionally, I again thought about having LSU above Oregon (I may take a quick look at last week's poll, but I try not to let it have a huge impact on this week). But again, I just edged Oregon ahead. I might have thought they were capable of more this week... but in terms of momentum and respect, today looks huge. I heard ESPN talking about the Oregon versus LSU comparison... that could be an AWESOME one if it comes down to it! There's really no wrong answer. And I know I'll hear PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF if it does come down to it. So I'm hoping, despite how exciting that would be, that it doesn't. Because they'd have such similar resumes: both having beat a top OOC team early by a ton (that turned it around) - Michigan and VTech, both haven beaten a top team in their conference opponent (if Oregon loses, they won't look much better than a Florida win), and both having lost by the slimmest of margins. LSU at least lost on the road, but Cal looked like the better team at the time... Oregon would also have USC, while LSU would be stuck with a pile of wins over solid SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia???). Quite interesting. But Oregon is a yard from a perfect season, don't forget that. Will be fun to see which team emerges from the Pac 10, that's for sure!
<->
This is going to be one of those things that fans of a team would want to kill me for! I drop Boston College 3 places for winning!?!?!??! But COME ON! Did you see the game!?! They did not earn that game in any way whatsoever. And, you know, I surely do subscribe to the fact sometimes a team just has to pull out a lucky one to make their season (I think of Oklahoma State and TAMU for OU in 2000 and also some MAC team or like Minnesota or something that should have beaten Ohio State in 2002 (or didn't they just almost lose EVERY game!!!?!). But honestly BC showed they AREN'T that good. The other top teams stepped up in a huge way. Meanwhile, on Thursday, it looked like a battle to decide who was more disgusting. Every time VT would go nowhere offensively, this supposed Heisman candidate in Ryan would come out and miss the mark by 10 yards. Sure, blame the rain all you want. And you can believe he won't have periods like that again. But I think this is just the first glimmer of things to come. I'm happy to be rooting fully for FSU for the first time in... a while. :-) And if FSU does win, I can tell you for a fact, BC should barely be in the top 25... FSU isn't that good. At Maryland and at Clemson are tough to sweep too. Then Miami that final weekend. And then a title game (Miami, VT, or Virginia?). BC, you gotta prove you want it.
LSU slips down to a solid 6 behind the top 5. I feel more secure placing them above Oklahoma... but still can't see enough room to slip them past Oregon. The Nick Saban Bowl looks like it could be a beast now, though, and in Tuscaloosa... oooh boy, that's a doozy. And you know if Bama wins, they take control of the west (though Auburn could still put a spot in that plan). Imagine Bama versus UF for the title!?! Who'd have thought LSU would be the SEC team out as we look today. I'd certainly smile! But after a run of 4 straight ranked (at gametime) opponents and 6 of the last 8, let's just see if they come out hotter after a week off they really needed. It might not even be close.
Another close choice here... but I think West Virginia showed they have some quality OU doesn't this weekend, by winning handily on the road against a ranked team. With Slaton and White looking like money, I really do see them winning out, even as they play 3 of the 5 best Big East teams (UConn, Cincy, and Louisville). OU or West Virginia would be another interesting National Title game question.
<->
After many favorable weeks for Oklahoma, this one butchered them. Where you thought you could count on an undefeated team to lose... no such luck. The south keeps looking uglier by the day. And a week to "savor" the Iowa State effort doesn't leave anyone thinking good things about Oklahoma, I think. And I'm not sure they'll look any better against TAMU next week. @Texas Tech still looks daunting, even as it's looking like TTech might be down and out... and then that OSU game looks dicier and dicier to be sure!
Oh good golly. I already said the team this week probably hurt more than any other was Oklahoma. Well, the team this week helped by FAR more than any other was Hawaii. 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 in the BCS lost. Hawaii is 17. Georgia could go by them. But Texas doesn't deserve to one bit, and it'll be tough for Michigan to. Uconn might come up close too. But the point is, this team may even come in tomorrow at BCS time in the sacred #12 slot. And if they don't, they have to be confident now they'll get the last bit more. Oh, oh yeah, Hawaii, you might want to be careful. That whole counting your chickens deal. Boise State looks BRUTAL. Hawaii showed they might have a little punch still left in them... but can they get through their tough tough final 1/4 season?
Most people will probably put Missouri above Hawaii. Fair enough, I guess... but I think people have forgotten how much weight they are giving wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Tech... all which have fallen on hard times. I'm still not impressed because they didn't look like a threat against OU. They "hung with" them. But didn't look dangerous. Still, they have 4 good games ahead of them and could really turn people around.
Some people will surely think I'm crazy driving UConn up this high suddenly. But did you forget? They are a point from still being undefeated, and that to a still intriguing Virginia team. Maybe it's a bit of a leap, but beating a hungry USF team scores major points for me. Of course Rutgers-UConn may be the best game no one watches next week... it sure excites me! It's funny because if they win out... they maybe just deserve consideration with the 1 loss teams above still. They won't get it. But they do. Oh yeah, but I doubt they do that!
VT only falls 4 spots!?!?!? Sure! They won that game! They just have an awful fourth quarter coach! LSU is still good, and VTech still looked primed to win quite a few games. But what a shock they blow another top chance to take control in their division. Ugg. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop 2 or even 3 to GT, FSU, Miami, and Virginia.
Man, there just isn't anyone left to put in this part of the poll. UConn and VT really got the favor they did because EVERYONE in this section lost, and the teams that won further back mostly looked pedestrian. Georgia takes the next spot... but since when did they have Troy next week!?! Umm, yipe! I make Troy the FAVORITE! Georgia will be too emotionally high after beating UF. BTW, nice class (or not) with the whole dancing in the endzone deal. Blah. Fair enough, though, they won it, fair and square with better play on the field and key turnovers.
Florida also doesn't fall much. Even with 3 losses, they are 13th in October. That's RARE. But I argue they still haven't lost to a bad team, even as up and down as Georgia is. They have still beaten Kentucky and Tennessee. My favorite thing: UF can still win the East! Only two teams have records above their's: Georgia and Tennessee. A loss by each of them (Georgia plays Auburn and Kentucky at home, UT still has Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky). If they each lose exactly once, it would make a three way tie with Florida. Any other team still with 3 losses only helps UF. Don't forget, UF just lost their first East game today. Still, there is sorrow here. And I'm also thinking it's time to be quiet as I was just getting boastful about saying UF would still get a title game shot, the moment they lost to LSU. I'm still wary of South Carolina up there.
How far does USF slip this week? It should be a ways. Any team to lose two in a row in October deserves a plunge... especially when the 2nd was a poor game vs. UConn. Yet they still own the best record in Florida (speaking of... what an ugly day... 1-4 on the slate for the state, with losses by both F_U's, USF, and UF, with Miami off and UCF to play tonight). Isn't it amazing how badly darlings keep crumbling!?! Remember two weeks ago how we were ready to give Kentucky and USF a title game? Whoops! But USF gets one more chance to get back on track: Cincy next week. It's really a fight to stave off elimination, so it'll be interesting. Did I point out that technically both teams are tied for last in the Big East!?! Blech!
Michigan is steadily rising... but I couldn't give them too much love. Moreso because their schedule since week 2 doesn't look that overpowering than anything... and they haven't been totally dominating. But few teams have. The season wrapup with Ohio State traveling to The Big House will be for the Big 10 (unless Michigan or Ohio State lose both their prior two games), and everyone has to wonder... what Michigan team will show up. You wonder if last year's heartbreaker to OSU was the cause of their horrible down period (don't forget, they actually lost 4 straight starting there... but have otherwise looked very championlike in the 2 years). Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road will show us whether this Michigan team is for real and will come in with a team that can win. I hope so!
Wow, what an amazing game! I was at the FSU-Duke game (blech), and so I missed seeing the UT-South Carolina game. I got the pick right with Tennessee winning... but boy it was more amazing a game than just some prediction could even capture. They gain back a lot of love from me. Yes, they were definitely smoked by Florida, Cal, AND Alabama on the road. And their only two big wins (South Carolina, Georgia) were at home. But they look like they've turned the corner (AGAIN). They outplayed South Carolina in the first half... then when they lost the momentum and fell apart... they buckled down and still took away a win. Yes, there was a ton of luck involved (like the fumble and false-start-negated FG), but I declare they come out of this game stronger as a team. ULL and Arkansas at home should help solidify that, if they play solid games... and if they do, I think they hold by far the best shot at winning the east, and win out.
Well, I'm finally ready to reaccept Southern Cal is a contender. Going on the road and falling just short against Oregon looked quite powerful. The problem is, their mistakes are what killed them... and they had a lot. I suppose they really are still one of the best football teams, skillwise... but they just need to overcome the mistakes. I want to argue they still have a shot at the Pac 10... but they need 2 more Oregon losses now pretty much, and that's tough. They are a good team... the Stanford loss I'll start to forget about... but being out of the title hunt in October must be a weird feeling in Los Angeles! I think they'll get by OSU easily next week...... then Cal should be an interesting game, with both teams sort of down-and-out.
The other USC falls just below the primary namesake with their loss. It's not so much that they lost, it's how they played the first half. I still think we totally underrated Vandy, and that's the heart of the reason they lost last week.... but boy if the top SEC teams aren't losing to teams they are supposed to beat a lot now (UF-Auburn, USC-Vandy, Kentucky-Miss St (oh, and Auburn-Miss St while you are at it)). But unlike the Pac-10, this showz the conference really is 11 deep. These teams didn't lose much in the way of bad OOC games... even the bottom tier teams. The SEC East is a ridiculous 15-1 OOC this year!!! If Georgia beats GTech and Troy, UF beats FSU, Tennessee dismantles their cupcake, USC beats Clemson, and especially if Vandy beats Wake Forest, it will 100% guarantee they are the best conference in the country by a mile. 31-5 out-of-conference as a whole is the SEC. And while most of those wins weren't over the supreme opponents... the losses tell another story: UT lost at Cal (the single SEC East loss OOC!), Bama lost a barnburner to FSU, Auburn lost a tight one to USF, Miss State got shellacked by WVU, and even lowly Mississippi only lost to Missouri by 13. No bad losses, and wins over VT, KSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Houston, and a pair over Troy. If their offensive woes are put to rest, I fear South Carolina (especially as a Gator fan. 5 SEC losses would hurt bad.)
Yuck and a half, it's Texas still in the top 25. They don't deserve it. Not after all-but-losing to Nebraska. It wasn't even a pile of mistakes, it was just poor football. I think I said before the OU game that if they lost there they would lose 3 or 4 more. Well that can still happen with the two other big Texas schools and Ok State to come. Probably won't quite come to fruition, but this team is going to disappoint. Charles is going to be take this team on his shoulders to make them win. Still, though, look out for them in the title hunt next year!
I only give Bama a little love, despite the fact their opponents from this season went 6-2 this week with some key wins. They are looking more and more glamorous, that's for sure. Next week is obviously the test for Saban, though. Is he going to come in prepared to the rims and hungry... or too nervous that their season tails off? I'm still not 100% convinced about Bama. But their losses are only by a combined 10 points, in Jacksonville and versus a tough, yet mercurial Georgia team. Auburn should also be an interesting end of season run. 2-0 in those two big games and Nick Saban deserves all the praise he gets and then some. 1-1 and he's definitely Alabama's coach to lead them into the future. 0-2? Same old, same old for Bama football of recent. Bring back Mike Shula! :-)
Clemson moves up with a solid win over Maryland, but they are still another team I need to see one more convincing win from. After personally seeing how much a lie Duke's close games are this season, Clemson needs to dominate to impress me. But they could well be the team to really put an axe in BC's title hopes. 100 points in 2 weeks looks nice. Beating Maryland will continue to look good. But VT and GT won't so much. Still, if they win out, they've got a fair shot at the ACC title game and a BCS bowl, so they have a lot to play for!
Boise State has to jump into the top 25 at this point. And it isn't at all because of last year's showcase. They hop right over Troy, whose portfolio took a hit because of how Florida fared and because they played yet another bad team. They can show the OSU win was for real in 7 days! But I think Boise is by far the best non-conference team (yeah, you heard me Hawaii)... they've beaten 4 of the better teams in their conference in 4 weeks, plus Wyoming and Southern Miss out of conference, and gave Washington a bit of a game on the road. They can tidy up lose ends this week vs San Diego State and really settle things up for their season-ender at Hawaii. I wonder if Boise could make the BCS if they win out? Teams keep losing at the current rate... and a non-top-16 team wins a conference, and I wouldn't be surprised.
And the SEC rounds out the top 25. It's still quite interesting to compare Auburn to Florida in terms of resume at this point. Auburn's losses come to LSU, South Florida, and Mississippi State by a combined 14 points. They beat Kansas State and Vandy. And, oh yeah, they also stuck it to Florida on the road. They are nearly done in the SEC West race, but I've gotta say they will be the cream of the mid-level bowls. Georgia and Alabama will show whether that's the case.
Last, but not least, it's Kentucky. I'm sure the humans will drop them WELL out of the polls this week... but I wouldn't be so quick. Have you forgotten the LSU win? Mississippi State is another SEC team that is better than anyone thinks. Sure, they should have won this game easily, but they really are a good team. Woodson had an off game, but I can see them winning 2 of 3 still vs Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. 5 ranked SEC East teams (and the 6th not too far off). Amazing. But they really are this good. I wonder if 5 can finish out in the top 25? We shall see!
I dropped Wake back a bit because I reconsidered their games... particularly how they haven't really beaten any team by much this year... but they can get back in next week by beating Virginia. I don't think there's a lot else to say about my other votes category... so that's that. I wonder what'll happen next week? Probably more chaos! And it's fun (despite the fact it'll push the call for playoffs)!
Have a good one!
So here comes the new top 25. The turnover of teams continues, but the undefeated teams are finally starting to suggest that at least two of them might emerge and kill off the chaos theories (all 4 major undefeateds beat top 25 teams, and arguably their strongest opponents left on the reg season schedule), and the poll gets a major overhaul this week as we finally got a much better idea on quite a few teams...
1 Ohio State 9-0 / win @ Penn State || 0
2 Kansas 8-0 / win @ Texas A&M || +4
3 Arizona State 8-0 / win vs California || +6
4 Oregon 7-1 / win vs USC || -1
5 Boston College 8-0 / win @ Virginia Tech || -3
6 LSU 7-1 / OFF || -2
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win @ Rutgers || 0
8 Oklahoma 7-1 / OFF || -3
9 Hawaii 7-0 / win vs NMSt || +2
10 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Iowa St || +3
11 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs USF || +10
12 Virginia Tech 6-2 / loss vs Boston College || -4
13 Georgia 6-2 / win vs Florida || NR
14 Florida 5-3 / loss vs Georgia || -2
15 South Florida 6-2 / loss @ UConn || -7
16 Michigan 7-2 / win vs Minnesota || +4
17 Tennessee 4-3 / win vs South Carolina || NR
18 USC 6-2 / loss @ Oregon || -1
19 South Carolina 6-3 / loss @ Tennessee || -3
20 Texas 7-2 / win vs Nebraska || -1
21 Alabama 6-2 / OFF || +1
22 Clemson 6-2 / win @ Maryland || +3
23 Boise State 7-1 / win @ Fresno State || NR
24 Auburn 6-3 / win vs Mississippi || NR
25 Kentucky 6-2 / loss vs Mississippi State || -10
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Wake Forest, Purdue, Virginia, Kansas State, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Miami, Houston, Vanderbilt, BYU, New Mexico, Maryland, Rutgers, Florida State, Fresno State, Cincinnati, Oregon State
DROPPED OUT: Virginia, Penn State, Wake Forest, Rutgers
Breakdown:
Ohio State may have been the first team labeled the best to step up and show they really are the best... at least since LSU's win over VT or USC's over Nebraska... but they looked ready to play. On the road at Penn State was a big game. And they played big football. Very, very impressive. If they win out, they should be #1 at the end, in every poll, if no one is insane.
OK, OK, that's it. I can't underrate them any longer. They've beaten three very quality Big 12 opponents on the road... and I'm ready to predict they'll beat Missouri at home to finish the year... setting up a very intriguing Big 12 Title game possibly. Yeah, they have to get there first... but Nebraska and Iowa State at home SHOULD be easy wins. The road game at Oklahoma State will be very interesting, as it'll match what I now consider the best road team in the country (THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING) versus probably the biggest homer in the nation this year in OSU. ..... Here's a very interesting possibility that is a little more possible today: all 4 undefeateds do win out..... leading to December 1st - Ohio State @ Michigan, Kansas vs. Oklahoma, Arizona St vs Arizona, and Boston College playing Virginia Tech again. And can you imagine if Arizona State is the team to lose!?! Arizona might have turned a corner today, so they'd better come out really strong if they do undefeated until that point. But everything this weekend was (4 undefeated teams playing ranked opponents), that one could be even better! Throw in LSU in the SEC title game and West Virginia playing Pitt... we could end up with one of the biggest upset days in college football history (paling even 2001) to crown a crazy year!
Arizona State makes another jump up after California... but did they really play all that well? They fell behind big early, which didn't show a lot of readiness. But I guess it just continues to show they are a late starter, as they've gotten off slow in a few games. Where a week ago I had basically already decided each undefeated team would have a loss... indeed, the national title picture has now gotten VERY interesting with some possible big arguments when the season wraps up. What if the 4 big conference teams go undefeated? I think it definitely comes down to ASU and Kansas....... and ASU probably nips in, honestly! It should be very close... but if Arizona State goes in and beats Oregon at home... they've got a win Oklahoma can only dream of (sorry, Missouri doesn't appear to be nearly the caliber). UCLA and especially Arizona will pad their numbers as well. Oh yeah, and they already have the lead in the polls. Of course, then there is the question about what happens to solid one loss teams like LSU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Some of this will sort itself out (see above in the Kansas box!). But if ASU wins out, they've earned my whole pile of respect. I don't think the Pac 10 is as good as the SEC (further evidenced by UCLA's loss today), but if ASU wins them all, in my mind, I'd just nip them above a one loss team.
4 vs 5 was a really tough choice. Additionally, I again thought about having LSU above Oregon (I may take a quick look at last week's poll, but I try not to let it have a huge impact on this week). But again, I just edged Oregon ahead. I might have thought they were capable of more this week... but in terms of momentum and respect, today looks huge. I heard ESPN talking about the Oregon versus LSU comparison... that could be an AWESOME one if it comes down to it! There's really no wrong answer. And I know I'll hear PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF if it does come down to it. So I'm hoping, despite how exciting that would be, that it doesn't. Because they'd have such similar resumes: both having beat a top OOC team early by a ton (that turned it around) - Michigan and VTech, both haven beaten a top team in their conference opponent (if Oregon loses, they won't look much better than a Florida win), and both having lost by the slimmest of margins. LSU at least lost on the road, but Cal looked like the better team at the time... Oregon would also have USC, while LSU would be stuck with a pile of wins over solid SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia???). Quite interesting. But Oregon is a yard from a perfect season, don't forget that. Will be fun to see which team emerges from the Pac 10, that's for sure!
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This is going to be one of those things that fans of a team would want to kill me for! I drop Boston College 3 places for winning!?!?!??! But COME ON! Did you see the game!?! They did not earn that game in any way whatsoever. And, you know, I surely do subscribe to the fact sometimes a team just has to pull out a lucky one to make their season (I think of Oklahoma State and TAMU for OU in 2000 and also some MAC team or like Minnesota or something that should have beaten Ohio State in 2002 (or didn't they just almost lose EVERY game!!!?!). But honestly BC showed they AREN'T that good. The other top teams stepped up in a huge way. Meanwhile, on Thursday, it looked like a battle to decide who was more disgusting. Every time VT would go nowhere offensively, this supposed Heisman candidate in Ryan would come out and miss the mark by 10 yards. Sure, blame the rain all you want. And you can believe he won't have periods like that again. But I think this is just the first glimmer of things to come. I'm happy to be rooting fully for FSU for the first time in... a while. :-) And if FSU does win, I can tell you for a fact, BC should barely be in the top 25... FSU isn't that good. At Maryland and at Clemson are tough to sweep too. Then Miami that final weekend. And then a title game (Miami, VT, or Virginia?). BC, you gotta prove you want it.
LSU slips down to a solid 6 behind the top 5. I feel more secure placing them above Oklahoma... but still can't see enough room to slip them past Oregon. The Nick Saban Bowl looks like it could be a beast now, though, and in Tuscaloosa... oooh boy, that's a doozy. And you know if Bama wins, they take control of the west (though Auburn could still put a spot in that plan). Imagine Bama versus UF for the title!?! Who'd have thought LSU would be the SEC team out as we look today. I'd certainly smile! But after a run of 4 straight ranked (at gametime) opponents and 6 of the last 8, let's just see if they come out hotter after a week off they really needed. It might not even be close.
Another close choice here... but I think West Virginia showed they have some quality OU doesn't this weekend, by winning handily on the road against a ranked team. With Slaton and White looking like money, I really do see them winning out, even as they play 3 of the 5 best Big East teams (UConn, Cincy, and Louisville). OU or West Virginia would be another interesting National Title game question.
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After many favorable weeks for Oklahoma, this one butchered them. Where you thought you could count on an undefeated team to lose... no such luck. The south keeps looking uglier by the day. And a week to "savor" the Iowa State effort doesn't leave anyone thinking good things about Oklahoma, I think. And I'm not sure they'll look any better against TAMU next week. @Texas Tech still looks daunting, even as it's looking like TTech might be down and out... and then that OSU game looks dicier and dicier to be sure!
Oh good golly. I already said the team this week probably hurt more than any other was Oklahoma. Well, the team this week helped by FAR more than any other was Hawaii. 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 in the BCS lost. Hawaii is 17. Georgia could go by them. But Texas doesn't deserve to one bit, and it'll be tough for Michigan to. Uconn might come up close too. But the point is, this team may even come in tomorrow at BCS time in the sacred #12 slot. And if they don't, they have to be confident now they'll get the last bit more. Oh, oh yeah, Hawaii, you might want to be careful. That whole counting your chickens deal. Boise State looks BRUTAL. Hawaii showed they might have a little punch still left in them... but can they get through their tough tough final 1/4 season?
Most people will probably put Missouri above Hawaii. Fair enough, I guess... but I think people have forgotten how much weight they are giving wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Tech... all which have fallen on hard times. I'm still not impressed because they didn't look like a threat against OU. They "hung with" them. But didn't look dangerous. Still, they have 4 good games ahead of them and could really turn people around.
Some people will surely think I'm crazy driving UConn up this high suddenly. But did you forget? They are a point from still being undefeated, and that to a still intriguing Virginia team. Maybe it's a bit of a leap, but beating a hungry USF team scores major points for me. Of course Rutgers-UConn may be the best game no one watches next week... it sure excites me! It's funny because if they win out... they maybe just deserve consideration with the 1 loss teams above still. They won't get it. But they do. Oh yeah, but I doubt they do that!
VT only falls 4 spots!?!?!? Sure! They won that game! They just have an awful fourth quarter coach! LSU is still good, and VTech still looked primed to win quite a few games. But what a shock they blow another top chance to take control in their division. Ugg. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop 2 or even 3 to GT, FSU, Miami, and Virginia.
Man, there just isn't anyone left to put in this part of the poll. UConn and VT really got the favor they did because EVERYONE in this section lost, and the teams that won further back mostly looked pedestrian. Georgia takes the next spot... but since when did they have Troy next week!?! Umm, yipe! I make Troy the FAVORITE! Georgia will be too emotionally high after beating UF. BTW, nice class (or not) with the whole dancing in the endzone deal. Blah. Fair enough, though, they won it, fair and square with better play on the field and key turnovers.
Florida also doesn't fall much. Even with 3 losses, they are 13th in October. That's RARE. But I argue they still haven't lost to a bad team, even as up and down as Georgia is. They have still beaten Kentucky and Tennessee. My favorite thing: UF can still win the East! Only two teams have records above their's: Georgia and Tennessee. A loss by each of them (Georgia plays Auburn and Kentucky at home, UT still has Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky). If they each lose exactly once, it would make a three way tie with Florida. Any other team still with 3 losses only helps UF. Don't forget, UF just lost their first East game today. Still, there is sorrow here. And I'm also thinking it's time to be quiet as I was just getting boastful about saying UF would still get a title game shot, the moment they lost to LSU. I'm still wary of South Carolina up there.
How far does USF slip this week? It should be a ways. Any team to lose two in a row in October deserves a plunge... especially when the 2nd was a poor game vs. UConn. Yet they still own the best record in Florida (speaking of... what an ugly day... 1-4 on the slate for the state, with losses by both F_U's, USF, and UF, with Miami off and UCF to play tonight). Isn't it amazing how badly darlings keep crumbling!?! Remember two weeks ago how we were ready to give Kentucky and USF a title game? Whoops! But USF gets one more chance to get back on track: Cincy next week. It's really a fight to stave off elimination, so it'll be interesting. Did I point out that technically both teams are tied for last in the Big East!?! Blech!
Michigan is steadily rising... but I couldn't give them too much love. Moreso because their schedule since week 2 doesn't look that overpowering than anything... and they haven't been totally dominating. But few teams have. The season wrapup with Ohio State traveling to The Big House will be for the Big 10 (unless Michigan or Ohio State lose both their prior two games), and everyone has to wonder... what Michigan team will show up. You wonder if last year's heartbreaker to OSU was the cause of their horrible down period (don't forget, they actually lost 4 straight starting there... but have otherwise looked very championlike in the 2 years). Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road will show us whether this Michigan team is for real and will come in with a team that can win. I hope so!
Wow, what an amazing game! I was at the FSU-Duke game (blech), and so I missed seeing the UT-South Carolina game. I got the pick right with Tennessee winning... but boy it was more amazing a game than just some prediction could even capture. They gain back a lot of love from me. Yes, they were definitely smoked by Florida, Cal, AND Alabama on the road. And their only two big wins (South Carolina, Georgia) were at home. But they look like they've turned the corner (AGAIN). They outplayed South Carolina in the first half... then when they lost the momentum and fell apart... they buckled down and still took away a win. Yes, there was a ton of luck involved (like the fumble and false-start-negated FG), but I declare they come out of this game stronger as a team. ULL and Arkansas at home should help solidify that, if they play solid games... and if they do, I think they hold by far the best shot at winning the east, and win out.
Well, I'm finally ready to reaccept Southern Cal is a contender. Going on the road and falling just short against Oregon looked quite powerful. The problem is, their mistakes are what killed them... and they had a lot. I suppose they really are still one of the best football teams, skillwise... but they just need to overcome the mistakes. I want to argue they still have a shot at the Pac 10... but they need 2 more Oregon losses now pretty much, and that's tough. They are a good team... the Stanford loss I'll start to forget about... but being out of the title hunt in October must be a weird feeling in Los Angeles! I think they'll get by OSU easily next week...... then Cal should be an interesting game, with both teams sort of down-and-out.
The other USC falls just below the primary namesake with their loss. It's not so much that they lost, it's how they played the first half. I still think we totally underrated Vandy, and that's the heart of the reason they lost last week.... but boy if the top SEC teams aren't losing to teams they are supposed to beat a lot now (UF-Auburn, USC-Vandy, Kentucky-Miss St (oh, and Auburn-Miss St while you are at it)). But unlike the Pac-10, this showz the conference really is 11 deep. These teams didn't lose much in the way of bad OOC games... even the bottom tier teams. The SEC East is a ridiculous 15-1 OOC this year!!! If Georgia beats GTech and Troy, UF beats FSU, Tennessee dismantles their cupcake, USC beats Clemson, and especially if Vandy beats Wake Forest, it will 100% guarantee they are the best conference in the country by a mile. 31-5 out-of-conference as a whole is the SEC. And while most of those wins weren't over the supreme opponents... the losses tell another story: UT lost at Cal (the single SEC East loss OOC!), Bama lost a barnburner to FSU, Auburn lost a tight one to USF, Miss State got shellacked by WVU, and even lowly Mississippi only lost to Missouri by 13. No bad losses, and wins over VT, KSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Houston, and a pair over Troy. If their offensive woes are put to rest, I fear South Carolina (especially as a Gator fan. 5 SEC losses would hurt bad.)
Yuck and a half, it's Texas still in the top 25. They don't deserve it. Not after all-but-losing to Nebraska. It wasn't even a pile of mistakes, it was just poor football. I think I said before the OU game that if they lost there they would lose 3 or 4 more. Well that can still happen with the two other big Texas schools and Ok State to come. Probably won't quite come to fruition, but this team is going to disappoint. Charles is going to be take this team on his shoulders to make them win. Still, though, look out for them in the title hunt next year!
I only give Bama a little love, despite the fact their opponents from this season went 6-2 this week with some key wins. They are looking more and more glamorous, that's for sure. Next week is obviously the test for Saban, though. Is he going to come in prepared to the rims and hungry... or too nervous that their season tails off? I'm still not 100% convinced about Bama. But their losses are only by a combined 10 points, in Jacksonville and versus a tough, yet mercurial Georgia team. Auburn should also be an interesting end of season run. 2-0 in those two big games and Nick Saban deserves all the praise he gets and then some. 1-1 and he's definitely Alabama's coach to lead them into the future. 0-2? Same old, same old for Bama football of recent. Bring back Mike Shula! :-)
Clemson moves up with a solid win over Maryland, but they are still another team I need to see one more convincing win from. After personally seeing how much a lie Duke's close games are this season, Clemson needs to dominate to impress me. But they could well be the team to really put an axe in BC's title hopes. 100 points in 2 weeks looks nice. Beating Maryland will continue to look good. But VT and GT won't so much. Still, if they win out, they've got a fair shot at the ACC title game and a BCS bowl, so they have a lot to play for!
Boise State has to jump into the top 25 at this point. And it isn't at all because of last year's showcase. They hop right over Troy, whose portfolio took a hit because of how Florida fared and because they played yet another bad team. They can show the OSU win was for real in 7 days! But I think Boise is by far the best non-conference team (yeah, you heard me Hawaii)... they've beaten 4 of the better teams in their conference in 4 weeks, plus Wyoming and Southern Miss out of conference, and gave Washington a bit of a game on the road. They can tidy up lose ends this week vs San Diego State and really settle things up for their season-ender at Hawaii. I wonder if Boise could make the BCS if they win out? Teams keep losing at the current rate... and a non-top-16 team wins a conference, and I wouldn't be surprised.
And the SEC rounds out the top 25. It's still quite interesting to compare Auburn to Florida in terms of resume at this point. Auburn's losses come to LSU, South Florida, and Mississippi State by a combined 14 points. They beat Kansas State and Vandy. And, oh yeah, they also stuck it to Florida on the road. They are nearly done in the SEC West race, but I've gotta say they will be the cream of the mid-level bowls. Georgia and Alabama will show whether that's the case.
Last, but not least, it's Kentucky. I'm sure the humans will drop them WELL out of the polls this week... but I wouldn't be so quick. Have you forgotten the LSU win? Mississippi State is another SEC team that is better than anyone thinks. Sure, they should have won this game easily, but they really are a good team. Woodson had an off game, but I can see them winning 2 of 3 still vs Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. 5 ranked SEC East teams (and the 6th not too far off). Amazing. But they really are this good. I wonder if 5 can finish out in the top 25? We shall see!
I dropped Wake back a bit because I reconsidered their games... particularly how they haven't really beaten any team by much this year... but they can get back in next week by beating Virginia. I don't think there's a lot else to say about my other votes category... so that's that. I wonder what'll happen next week? Probably more chaos! And it's fun (despite the fact it'll push the call for playoffs)!
Have a good one!
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