Top 25 (Nov 25)

Clearer or cloudier?


That's the question after the losses by 4 more top 10 teams (I think we need to check historical records on # of losses by top 10 and top 5 teams!), including #1 LSU and #2 Kansas (#1 and #2 hadn't lost the same weekend since 1997, now it finally has happened twice this year...... could it happen again next week!?!) (and I wonder when the last time is that #1 and #2 both lost at home (at least technically, when it comes to Kansas)). Oregon losing also continues the "momentum" theme for this year, and knocks them and similarly coming-up-short Arizona State well back... and also confuses things further.


First, let's go to the poll, though:



1 Missouri 11-1 / win @ Kansas || +4
2 West Virginia 10-1 / win vs UConn || +1
3 Ohio State 11-1 / OFF || +3
4 Hawaii 11-0 / win vs Boise State || +3
5 Georgia 10-2 / win @ Georgia Tech || +3
6 Kansas 11-1 / loss vs Missouri || -5
7 Oklahoma 10-2 / win vs Oklahoma St || +3
8 LSU 10-2 / loss vs Arkansas || -6
9 Virginia Tech 10-2 / win @ Virginia || +4
10 USC 9-2 / win @ Arizona State || +2
11 Florida 9-3 / win vs FSU || 0
12 Arizona State 9-2 / loss vs USC || -8
13 Illinois 9-3 / OFF || +3
14 Tennessee 9-3 / win @ Kentucky || +4
15 Boston College 10-2 / win vs Miami || +5
16 South Florida 8-3 / win @ Pittsburgh || +5
17 Clemson 9-3 / win @ South Carolina || +5
18 Boise State 10-2 / loss @ Hawaii || -4
19 Virginia 9-3 / loss vs Virginia Tech || -2
20 Cincinnati 9-3 / win @ Syracuse || +4
21 Wisconsin 9-3 / OFF || +2
22 Auburn 8-4 / win vs Alabama || +3
23 Oregon 8-3 / loss @ UCLA || -14
24 Texas 9-3 / loss @ TAMU || -9
25 Arkansas 8-4 / win @ LSU || NR


Others considered (in general order of closeness): Kentucky, Wake Forest, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, BYU, UConn, Oregon St, Utah, Penn St, Rutgers, Florida State, Mississippi State, Air Force, Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Fresno State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, Bowling Green

Fallen out: Connecticut



That's the first time I've ever wanted to move a team INTO the top 25 after a loss..... I think. I almost did, too, but had to give the nod to Arkansas.




So first things first, let's talk title picture. It's, very slowly, clearing into focus. Missouri still isn't terribly exciting to me, and I think Missouri was in a lose-lose situation tonight in that, if they won (as they did), everyone would think Kansas was just a giant fraud... and if they lost, they'd be done. And Kansas playing poorly the whole game hurt even more. The funniest thing is, except for a long string of slightly poor occurrences throughout the game, Kansas might have won that game.

Still, Missouri can't lose much. And Chase Daniel is suddenly everyone's Heisman winner over Tim Tebow...... which I think is 110% RIDICULOUS! Tebow 1, McFadden 2 looked like the easy ballot, especially after watching both work this weekend. Tebow once again showed this weekend his amazing talent at both the run and the pass with spectacular plays at both early in the game... but as Gary Danielson said, because 99% of the nation wasn't watching (because of that AMAZING finish to Kentucky-Tennessee (I didn't want to watch FSU-UF either!!!), he may be penalized. And to just add to the insanity, he set the record for rushing tds in a year by a quarterback! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?! More than the Vince Young's and Eric Crouch's of this world!?! While tossing in 29 passing touchdowns (he was tied for 10th in the NCAA coming into this weekend) to go with the 22 on the ground!?!
Daniel may have turned it up in the biggest game tonight, but he threw only 1 td and 2 picks against Oklahoma.
Yes, only 3 previous qbs with more than 2 losses have won the Heisman. But to blame Timmy T for the three losses is absurd. Three close losses in the SEC. 2 on the road to teams that'll be in the top 10 this weekend. And the offense never let them down in those games, in which they still scored 17, 24, and 30!?! Tebow had 8 tds to 2 int in those 3 games. Sorry, I like the Big 12, and I think Daniel has well-earned a spot at the table in New York... but you can't help but give it to a quarterback who has broken records, had breathtaking passes and runs, and led his team to a successful season in the brutal SEC (did you see those two games this weekend!!?!... the conference went 2-2 this weekend vs the ACC with 2 good wins, a close loss for South Carolina, and a poor game by Vandy). I have a pile of Florida State fans who will admit this man should win the Heisman. Don't forget how much an impact he had on UF's title run last season, too! Give the man the trophy. Invite Daniel, McFadden, White, and probably Brennan.

Anyways, oh yeah, title game.
I've gotta be honest... I am very confident Oklahoma wins next weekend.
And hopefully that'll quell all this Heisman jazz as an added bonus. They showed today how much Bradford means. And the game is in San Antonio. I say Oklahoma obliterates. I hope so.
If that's the case..... the team I despised playing gets in... and I'm not so sure that's an awful thing anymore. Yeah, amazing, the Buckeyes may be right back in the game. And the taste of a decisive victory over Michigan continues to taste good to end the season. Kansas should fall out of the title picture (though I bet the computers prop them up further than they should).

Virginia Tech looked SPECTACULAR this weekend in their win over UConn. They look ready to play, and honestly are still my pick to win the NC, with Ohio State being a close second (sorry Missouri, I'm not buying... and I've been the quiet champion of Kansas and you guys all year).
But the HUGE question is, just in case: who gets into the title game if, by some odd disaster, Pittsburgh somehow wins next week in Morgantown (I think that's downright impossible, but this year, you never know I suppose)?
If disaster does somehow happen, I think we may end up with a very overlooked disaster by the BCS. And I'm desperately hoping that just doesn't happen.
Because if WVU did lose, we'd end up with a 4 team battle for the NC, and it'd be a pretty decent discussion. The 4 teams I think have very legit claims if that happens:
Georgia - looking pretty as the best two loss team, and now doesn't have to play next week. Does that help or hurt? I have to go with help, but we'll definitely see.
Oklahoma - if Oklahoma does knock off Missouri decisively, it will bring up discussion, and the numbers will get close. How do Colorado and Texas Tech on the road for the losses and a pair of wins over Missouri along with a Texas in hand compare to losses to South Carolina (at home) and Tennessee on the road (blowout), with victories over Florida, Auburn, Kentucky... and Troy!?! It's a VERY good discussion. Does the later loss cost them more? And can I have Jon Bible's home address if it does (he did the KU-MU game tonight... and got at least one call wrong in the game)?
Kansas - it is going to be so intriguing to see where they end up after this week. The scoreboard makes it look like they played better than they did....... but even I turned the game off after halftime. They are done, with one loss (compared to the two for OU and Georgia). The computers won't assault them too badly. How bad to the people? Do they give them too much benefit of the doubt for having only lost to the #1 team at a neutral site by 6?!? It'll be VERY interesting!!! Will people rise up what they and I now agree would be a giant travesty... Kansas playing in the title game? An untested team: fine. A team that was tested once and dissected once: ridiculous! Prediction if they did get in: all time rating low.
Hawaii - THIS IS THE TEAM THAT ACTUALLY DESERVES THE NOD IN MY BOOK. Perhaps they are just a new Kansas, but they have turned an awful start into a stellar finish, and really run through some pretty meaty teams. That's if they beat Washington next week. I also wonder very much how much Hawaii moves up. I'm guessing they only pass BC (and of course Texas), which is a real shame. Gotta believe they deserve to be above a 3-loss Florida team at least. But beat Washington (a good team), then we'll talk.
And honestly this list leaves out four also deserving teams: Virginia Tech (who might actually end up the numerical victor, but definitely wouldn't deserve it, haven lost ugly games to BC and especially LSU, and never looking dominant), USC (oh yeah, them... if they win next week, they actually are secretly on quite a beautiful roll (oh if they hadn't lost to Arizona State... they would actually be there now, at worst right behind OSU)), LSU (probably the best of the two loss teams, but having lost so late, probably falls too far), and West Virginia (South Florida and Pitt are an ugly two, but they would have two losses and have won some very defining games. Anyone else wondering where Florida would be had they not lost one of their three? I know I am! Would they be above Georgia? How about Ohio State!?!?! Hmmmm, one can think for a long time!



Updated BCS Discussion
Okey dokey, so now the bowl picture is a little clearer. FINALLY a second team clinched a BCS bowl birth today... most likely Georgia (honestly, there's no way Florida gets it..... unless Illinois gets one, then maybe a bowl will consider it... but Georgia is going to end up too highly ranked, honestly (quite possibly even top 4)).

Meanwhile, though, the Pac 10 picture got turned upside down. We were looking at the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10 cleaning up three of the at-large spots... but the Pac 10 is excruciating danger now. Arizona State still represents an outside shot... but Oregon is done. A loss next weekend by USC or Arizona State finishes it off for good, and further blurs the BCS.

Also basically certain now: the Big East only gets 1 BCS team.
Also, I'm now quite confident the Big 12 has locked up a second berth.

So BCS breakdown:
Clearness -
SEC - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of LSU-TENNESSEE and one of Georgia/Florida/LSU, almost certainly Georgia)
Big 12 - WILL qualify 2 teams (winner of OU-Missouri) and either loser or Kansas, probably Kansas.
Big East - West Virginia only

Murkiness -
ACC - Qualifies winner of BC-VT... but does loser stay in the top 14... or does Virginia somehow creep back in? If VT wins, it looks near impossible... unless they must expand the at-large field as now being discussed.
Pac 10 - Qualifies conference winner (USC if they win, ASU with a win and USC loss, Oregon maybe if both teams lose and they win). If USC and ASU both win, that should bring 2 berths. But if they don't, it's shaky.
Big 10 - OHIO STATE is in. Illinois' picture is getting more pretty by the day.
Wac - Hawaii is right on the border of an auto-qualify by getting into top 12. Will not have any help by the top 16 conference winner rule. But actually looks most likely because of the three conferences above. If they win.

If Hawaii, Boston College, Arizona State, and Oregon lose next weekend.... boy I haven't the foggiest about that last bid! Boston College/Virginia would be my best guess.


Predicted BCS games:
National Title Game - West Virginia vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Illinois vs USC
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs Arizona State
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Georgia
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs Hawaii

That would require Hawaii sticking in the top 12 somehow even though BC probably jumps up. Basically it requires them to be ahead of VT, a tough proposition. But we shall see. Not the most exciting games.



Updated Large Bowl Picture
So now we can clean up the post from yesterday a bit.
ACC: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
Big East: 5 eligible, 5 tie-ins 0 6-6 teams (Louisville could become one, but won't go bowling)
Big 10: 10 eligible, 7 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Big 12: 8 eligible, 8 tie-ins
CUSA: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins
MAC: 5 eligible, 3 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams (1 is Miami (OH) which plays for title next week)
MWC: 5 eligible, 4 tie-ins, no 6-6 teams
Pac 10: 6 eligible, 6 tie-ins, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team and 1 more possible to reach 6-6
SEC: 10 eligible, 8 tie-ins, 2 6-6 teams
Sun Belt: 3 eligible, 1 tie-in, 1 6-5 team 1 6-6 team
WAC: 3 (will be 4) eligible, 3 tie-ins, will be 1 6-6 team
Indep: Navy in, Western Kentucky not legal yet.

70 eligible teams (will be at least 71, as much as 73)... 64 spots.
So which 7-9 teams get left home?
Well the only empty slots possible are the 4 at-large BCS teams. The SEC will eat up one of those slots. Leaving three. The Big 12 2nd BCS game will open up one at-large bowler. If the Big 10 or WAC get a second BCS team, they will eat a second at-large bowler within their conference. If the ACC gets a second BCS, it will open a second at-large slot. Finally, the Pac 10 could go either way, with 2 BCSers and an empty slot, or 1 BCSer and 7 eligible teams leaving one team outside looking in.
We'll say all the 7-5 Big 10 teams get into bowls... so then whether Illinois goes to the BCS or some team goes to an at-large bowl slot, it doesn't matter.
That leaves 2 slots... possibly one if Arizona beats Oregon and Arizona State loses. The Mountain West and MAC are the two most likely to take an extra slot, with it possible 4 MAC teams get to 7 wins next week... and even if not, a division champion in Miami, OH has 6 wins. However, Florida Atlantic could draw consideration if they beat Troy next week and move to 7-5 as well.

Last eligible teams most likely to get into bowl slots. From most likely to get in down to least.

All of Michigan State/Purdue/Indiana
TCU
Two of Ball State and Central Michigan (if Miami (OH) wins. If CMU wins, they auto-qualify)
All of Arizona/Cal/UCLA, if UA wins (Cal & UCLA auto-qualify if Arizona does not win)
Miami (OH) (if Central Michigan wins... if Miami wins they auto-qualify)
Florida Atlantic
Both Alabama/South Carolina (1 will go)
Winner of Nevada vs Louisiana Tech (loser doesn't qualify)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisville
Iowa
Ohio
Northwestern


Interesting that both ULM and Alabama are near the cusp... and it'll be odd to see Alabama get in but ULM not. But that's what it is to be in the SEC.
It'll be VERY interesting to see which team gets picked out of South Carolina and Alabama, though. Man, two teams that were on the outskirts of the title talk in October... and were definitely in the thick of their division races... one gets left home. South Carolina beat Georgia and Kentucky and took Tennessee and Clemson to the ropes. Bama beat Tennessee and Arkansas and took LSU, Georgia, FSU, and even Auburn to the ropes. Amazing that one of those teams doesn't get in.
Honestly, it has to be Bama after losing to Mississippi State and ULM in back-to-back weeks and losing 4 straight to end the year. South Carolina lost 5 straight to end... but after a bad loss to Vandy (Gamecocks were ranked #6 at the time!!!), the last 4 are all now-ranked opponents. And there's still no ULM. Of course it all depends on matchups.
I'm still sad Louisville stays home, too, even if they beat Rutgers. What an awful way for Brahm to go out. I guess that speaks to the abilities of Petrino.


Odds and Ends
It's records all around for my favorite teams. Not only did Tebow tie the rushing td mark for a qb today... but Sam Bradford at OU broke the NCAA record for passing tds for a freshman, and Kevin Smith is now 4th all-time in terms of yards rushing EVER.
The problem is that so many of those records are entirely due to the expansion to 12 games. Smith could theoretically break the NCAA record by rushing for 464 yards in next week's CUSA title game and then the bowl game. But the records the breaks are of those people who only had 11 games count (bowls didn't count back in the day, either). Bradford also got the bonus of an extra game and the weak Big 12. It's Tebow's numbers that continues to shine. Even if you cut back today's numbers, he still is the first qb to go 20/20.
I felt good about the chances of a Florida-Illinois bowl game earlier today... but I now I feel they are almost impossible. Florida-USC in the Rose Bowl is almost as likely! It is interesting that Georgia, with 2 losses could miss the BCS. But if they don't make top 4, and Tebow wins the Heisman (though I don't think that comes out until after the BCS selection), it might have been possible. It's definitely of interest to the BCS folks that Florida will probably pull a bigger audience. Money talks. But Florida will still probably stay home... while Illinois is probably going to the Rose Bowl, which would defeat all hope of a meeting. Now, if Missouri does win next week (maybe I should stop counting a loss as a definite), then Illinois doesn't go to the Rose and it's a tad bit more likely they don't make the BCS. It'd help if BC and 2 of the 3 Pac 10 teams win next week.
I heard it today on CBS: "UF should be preseason #1". Hadn't thought about it. But how can they not be? They have 5 seniors, 3 on offense and 2 on D (unfortunately one is Tony Joyner, in the already weak secondary) [oh, don't forget kicker Tony Ijjas is a senior too]. Losing two O lineman could be sneakily painful, too. But with all the skill players back, plus a running back coming in from USC, and the D progressing a year... how do you doubt them!?! 19 points from being undefeated this year. That's less than Georgia. Only teams with less: Hawaii (0), Kansas (6), Ohio State (7), LSU (8), West Virginia (8), USC (8), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (10), South Florida (15), Illinois (16), Cincy (16), Boston College (17), BYU (18).
Ok, that's more than I thought! Can you still tell me it wasn't an amazing season!!?!
Also of interest: Illinois only loses two starters on offense (but 5 on D).
Yikes, Ohio State only loses 2 on offense and 1 on D.
BTW, 3/2 for Georgia, as well.
6/3 for my supposed sneaky NCSU team.
2/8 for Arizona (yipe).

None of those count early-leaving juniors/others.


Anyways, one more week. Anyone as exhausted as me!?!