Matt Hayes is the greatest writer in college football, barnone. He tells it like it is with incredible insight and balanced wisdom. And this just goes on the top:
"In one magnificent weekend, the league kept hope alive for two national title teams (Oregon and Arizona State), and had the weekend's two best games (Oregon-USC and Cal-Arizona State) in the process.
How do you top that, you ask? Oregon playing host to Arizona State this weekend in a BCS elimination game. (Pssst: For the eighteenth gazillion time: this delicious week-by-week madness is your playoff, everyone). "
THANK YOU!
That's all that needs be said.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Top 25 (Oct 28th)
Well I watched one of my teams officially fall out of the National Title race (even while I STILL hold out hope (maybe faint hope... but better hope than you might think! (see my discussion of UF))), the other one didn't play (and everyone is still down on them after their weak performance last week...... and two of the 5 undefeated won games after looking awful for some sizable portion of the game. And o obscene upsets to speak of. Starting to look like we're finally getting down to business maybe. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more teams fall... maybe, as the schedules hint at, in one final ugly run of destruction at the season's end.
So here comes the new top 25. The turnover of teams continues, but the undefeated teams are finally starting to suggest that at least two of them might emerge and kill off the chaos theories (all 4 major undefeateds beat top 25 teams, and arguably their strongest opponents left on the reg season schedule), and the poll gets a major overhaul this week as we finally got a much better idea on quite a few teams...
1 Ohio State 9-0 / win @ Penn State || 0
2 Kansas 8-0 / win @ Texas A&M || +4
3 Arizona State 8-0 / win vs California || +6
4 Oregon 7-1 / win vs USC || -1
5 Boston College 8-0 / win @ Virginia Tech || -3
6 LSU 7-1 / OFF || -2
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win @ Rutgers || 0
8 Oklahoma 7-1 / OFF || -3
9 Hawaii 7-0 / win vs NMSt || +2
10 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Iowa St || +3
11 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs USF || +10
12 Virginia Tech 6-2 / loss vs Boston College || -4
13 Georgia 6-2 / win vs Florida || NR
14 Florida 5-3 / loss vs Georgia || -2
15 South Florida 6-2 / loss @ UConn || -7
16 Michigan 7-2 / win vs Minnesota || +4
17 Tennessee 4-3 / win vs South Carolina || NR
18 USC 6-2 / loss @ Oregon || -1
19 South Carolina 6-3 / loss @ Tennessee || -3
20 Texas 7-2 / win vs Nebraska || -1
21 Alabama 6-2 / OFF || +1
22 Clemson 6-2 / win @ Maryland || +3
23 Boise State 7-1 / win @ Fresno State || NR
24 Auburn 6-3 / win vs Mississippi || NR
25 Kentucky 6-2 / loss vs Mississippi State || -10
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Wake Forest, Purdue, Virginia, Kansas State, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Miami, Houston, Vanderbilt, BYU, New Mexico, Maryland, Rutgers, Florida State, Fresno State, Cincinnati, Oregon State
DROPPED OUT: Virginia, Penn State, Wake Forest, Rutgers
Breakdown:
Ohio State may have been the first team labeled the best to step up and show they really are the best... at least since LSU's win over VT or USC's over Nebraska... but they looked ready to play. On the road at Penn State was a big game. And they played big football. Very, very impressive. If they win out, they should be #1 at the end, in every poll, if no one is insane.
OK, OK, that's it. I can't underrate them any longer. They've beaten three very quality Big 12 opponents on the road... and I'm ready to predict they'll beat Missouri at home to finish the year... setting up a very intriguing Big 12 Title game possibly. Yeah, they have to get there first... but Nebraska and Iowa State at home SHOULD be easy wins. The road game at Oklahoma State will be very interesting, as it'll match what I now consider the best road team in the country (THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING) versus probably the biggest homer in the nation this year in OSU. ..... Here's a very interesting possibility that is a little more possible today: all 4 undefeateds do win out..... leading to December 1st - Ohio State @ Michigan, Kansas vs. Oklahoma, Arizona St vs Arizona, and Boston College playing Virginia Tech again. And can you imagine if Arizona State is the team to lose!?! Arizona might have turned a corner today, so they'd better come out really strong if they do undefeated until that point. But everything this weekend was (4 undefeated teams playing ranked opponents), that one could be even better! Throw in LSU in the SEC title game and West Virginia playing Pitt... we could end up with one of the biggest upset days in college football history (paling even 2001) to crown a crazy year!
Arizona State makes another jump up after California... but did they really play all that well? They fell behind big early, which didn't show a lot of readiness. But I guess it just continues to show they are a late starter, as they've gotten off slow in a few games. Where a week ago I had basically already decided each undefeated team would have a loss... indeed, the national title picture has now gotten VERY interesting with some possible big arguments when the season wraps up. What if the 4 big conference teams go undefeated? I think it definitely comes down to ASU and Kansas....... and ASU probably nips in, honestly! It should be very close... but if Arizona State goes in and beats Oregon at home... they've got a win Oklahoma can only dream of (sorry, Missouri doesn't appear to be nearly the caliber). UCLA and especially Arizona will pad their numbers as well. Oh yeah, and they already have the lead in the polls. Of course, then there is the question about what happens to solid one loss teams like LSU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Some of this will sort itself out (see above in the Kansas box!). But if ASU wins out, they've earned my whole pile of respect. I don't think the Pac 10 is as good as the SEC (further evidenced by UCLA's loss today), but if ASU wins them all, in my mind, I'd just nip them above a one loss team.
4 vs 5 was a really tough choice. Additionally, I again thought about having LSU above Oregon (I may take a quick look at last week's poll, but I try not to let it have a huge impact on this week). But again, I just edged Oregon ahead. I might have thought they were capable of more this week... but in terms of momentum and respect, today looks huge. I heard ESPN talking about the Oregon versus LSU comparison... that could be an AWESOME one if it comes down to it! There's really no wrong answer. And I know I'll hear PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF if it does come down to it. So I'm hoping, despite how exciting that would be, that it doesn't. Because they'd have such similar resumes: both having beat a top OOC team early by a ton (that turned it around) - Michigan and VTech, both haven beaten a top team in their conference opponent (if Oregon loses, they won't look much better than a Florida win), and both having lost by the slimmest of margins. LSU at least lost on the road, but Cal looked like the better team at the time... Oregon would also have USC, while LSU would be stuck with a pile of wins over solid SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia???). Quite interesting. But Oregon is a yard from a perfect season, don't forget that. Will be fun to see which team emerges from the Pac 10, that's for sure!
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This is going to be one of those things that fans of a team would want to kill me for! I drop Boston College 3 places for winning!?!?!??! But COME ON! Did you see the game!?! They did not earn that game in any way whatsoever. And, you know, I surely do subscribe to the fact sometimes a team just has to pull out a lucky one to make their season (I think of Oklahoma State and TAMU for OU in 2000 and also some MAC team or like Minnesota or something that should have beaten Ohio State in 2002 (or didn't they just almost lose EVERY game!!!?!). But honestly BC showed they AREN'T that good. The other top teams stepped up in a huge way. Meanwhile, on Thursday, it looked like a battle to decide who was more disgusting. Every time VT would go nowhere offensively, this supposed Heisman candidate in Ryan would come out and miss the mark by 10 yards. Sure, blame the rain all you want. And you can believe he won't have periods like that again. But I think this is just the first glimmer of things to come. I'm happy to be rooting fully for FSU for the first time in... a while. :-) And if FSU does win, I can tell you for a fact, BC should barely be in the top 25... FSU isn't that good. At Maryland and at Clemson are tough to sweep too. Then Miami that final weekend. And then a title game (Miami, VT, or Virginia?). BC, you gotta prove you want it.
LSU slips down to a solid 6 behind the top 5. I feel more secure placing them above Oklahoma... but still can't see enough room to slip them past Oregon. The Nick Saban Bowl looks like it could be a beast now, though, and in Tuscaloosa... oooh boy, that's a doozy. And you know if Bama wins, they take control of the west (though Auburn could still put a spot in that plan). Imagine Bama versus UF for the title!?! Who'd have thought LSU would be the SEC team out as we look today. I'd certainly smile! But after a run of 4 straight ranked (at gametime) opponents and 6 of the last 8, let's just see if they come out hotter after a week off they really needed. It might not even be close.
Another close choice here... but I think West Virginia showed they have some quality OU doesn't this weekend, by winning handily on the road against a ranked team. With Slaton and White looking like money, I really do see them winning out, even as they play 3 of the 5 best Big East teams (UConn, Cincy, and Louisville). OU or West Virginia would be another interesting National Title game question.
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After many favorable weeks for Oklahoma, this one butchered them. Where you thought you could count on an undefeated team to lose... no such luck. The south keeps looking uglier by the day. And a week to "savor" the Iowa State effort doesn't leave anyone thinking good things about Oklahoma, I think. And I'm not sure they'll look any better against TAMU next week. @Texas Tech still looks daunting, even as it's looking like TTech might be down and out... and then that OSU game looks dicier and dicier to be sure!
Oh good golly. I already said the team this week probably hurt more than any other was Oklahoma. Well, the team this week helped by FAR more than any other was Hawaii. 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 in the BCS lost. Hawaii is 17. Georgia could go by them. But Texas doesn't deserve to one bit, and it'll be tough for Michigan to. Uconn might come up close too. But the point is, this team may even come in tomorrow at BCS time in the sacred #12 slot. And if they don't, they have to be confident now they'll get the last bit more. Oh, oh yeah, Hawaii, you might want to be careful. That whole counting your chickens deal. Boise State looks BRUTAL. Hawaii showed they might have a little punch still left in them... but can they get through their tough tough final 1/4 season?
Most people will probably put Missouri above Hawaii. Fair enough, I guess... but I think people have forgotten how much weight they are giving wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Tech... all which have fallen on hard times. I'm still not impressed because they didn't look like a threat against OU. They "hung with" them. But didn't look dangerous. Still, they have 4 good games ahead of them and could really turn people around.
Some people will surely think I'm crazy driving UConn up this high suddenly. But did you forget? They are a point from still being undefeated, and that to a still intriguing Virginia team. Maybe it's a bit of a leap, but beating a hungry USF team scores major points for me. Of course Rutgers-UConn may be the best game no one watches next week... it sure excites me! It's funny because if they win out... they maybe just deserve consideration with the 1 loss teams above still. They won't get it. But they do. Oh yeah, but I doubt they do that!
VT only falls 4 spots!?!?!? Sure! They won that game! They just have an awful fourth quarter coach! LSU is still good, and VTech still looked primed to win quite a few games. But what a shock they blow another top chance to take control in their division. Ugg. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop 2 or even 3 to GT, FSU, Miami, and Virginia.
Man, there just isn't anyone left to put in this part of the poll. UConn and VT really got the favor they did because EVERYONE in this section lost, and the teams that won further back mostly looked pedestrian. Georgia takes the next spot... but since when did they have Troy next week!?! Umm, yipe! I make Troy the FAVORITE! Georgia will be too emotionally high after beating UF. BTW, nice class (or not) with the whole dancing in the endzone deal. Blah. Fair enough, though, they won it, fair and square with better play on the field and key turnovers.
Florida also doesn't fall much. Even with 3 losses, they are 13th in October. That's RARE. But I argue they still haven't lost to a bad team, even as up and down as Georgia is. They have still beaten Kentucky and Tennessee. My favorite thing: UF can still win the East! Only two teams have records above their's: Georgia and Tennessee. A loss by each of them (Georgia plays Auburn and Kentucky at home, UT still has Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky). If they each lose exactly once, it would make a three way tie with Florida. Any other team still with 3 losses only helps UF. Don't forget, UF just lost their first East game today. Still, there is sorrow here. And I'm also thinking it's time to be quiet as I was just getting boastful about saying UF would still get a title game shot, the moment they lost to LSU. I'm still wary of South Carolina up there.
How far does USF slip this week? It should be a ways. Any team to lose two in a row in October deserves a plunge... especially when the 2nd was a poor game vs. UConn. Yet they still own the best record in Florida (speaking of... what an ugly day... 1-4 on the slate for the state, with losses by both F_U's, USF, and UF, with Miami off and UCF to play tonight). Isn't it amazing how badly darlings keep crumbling!?! Remember two weeks ago how we were ready to give Kentucky and USF a title game? Whoops! But USF gets one more chance to get back on track: Cincy next week. It's really a fight to stave off elimination, so it'll be interesting. Did I point out that technically both teams are tied for last in the Big East!?! Blech!
Michigan is steadily rising... but I couldn't give them too much love. Moreso because their schedule since week 2 doesn't look that overpowering than anything... and they haven't been totally dominating. But few teams have. The season wrapup with Ohio State traveling to The Big House will be for the Big 10 (unless Michigan or Ohio State lose both their prior two games), and everyone has to wonder... what Michigan team will show up. You wonder if last year's heartbreaker to OSU was the cause of their horrible down period (don't forget, they actually lost 4 straight starting there... but have otherwise looked very championlike in the 2 years). Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road will show us whether this Michigan team is for real and will come in with a team that can win. I hope so!
Wow, what an amazing game! I was at the FSU-Duke game (blech), and so I missed seeing the UT-South Carolina game. I got the pick right with Tennessee winning... but boy it was more amazing a game than just some prediction could even capture. They gain back a lot of love from me. Yes, they were definitely smoked by Florida, Cal, AND Alabama on the road. And their only two big wins (South Carolina, Georgia) were at home. But they look like they've turned the corner (AGAIN). They outplayed South Carolina in the first half... then when they lost the momentum and fell apart... they buckled down and still took away a win. Yes, there was a ton of luck involved (like the fumble and false-start-negated FG), but I declare they come out of this game stronger as a team. ULL and Arkansas at home should help solidify that, if they play solid games... and if they do, I think they hold by far the best shot at winning the east, and win out.
Well, I'm finally ready to reaccept Southern Cal is a contender. Going on the road and falling just short against Oregon looked quite powerful. The problem is, their mistakes are what killed them... and they had a lot. I suppose they really are still one of the best football teams, skillwise... but they just need to overcome the mistakes. I want to argue they still have a shot at the Pac 10... but they need 2 more Oregon losses now pretty much, and that's tough. They are a good team... the Stanford loss I'll start to forget about... but being out of the title hunt in October must be a weird feeling in Los Angeles! I think they'll get by OSU easily next week...... then Cal should be an interesting game, with both teams sort of down-and-out.
The other USC falls just below the primary namesake with their loss. It's not so much that they lost, it's how they played the first half. I still think we totally underrated Vandy, and that's the heart of the reason they lost last week.... but boy if the top SEC teams aren't losing to teams they are supposed to beat a lot now (UF-Auburn, USC-Vandy, Kentucky-Miss St (oh, and Auburn-Miss St while you are at it)). But unlike the Pac-10, this showz the conference really is 11 deep. These teams didn't lose much in the way of bad OOC games... even the bottom tier teams. The SEC East is a ridiculous 15-1 OOC this year!!! If Georgia beats GTech and Troy, UF beats FSU, Tennessee dismantles their cupcake, USC beats Clemson, and especially if Vandy beats Wake Forest, it will 100% guarantee they are the best conference in the country by a mile. 31-5 out-of-conference as a whole is the SEC. And while most of those wins weren't over the supreme opponents... the losses tell another story: UT lost at Cal (the single SEC East loss OOC!), Bama lost a barnburner to FSU, Auburn lost a tight one to USF, Miss State got shellacked by WVU, and even lowly Mississippi only lost to Missouri by 13. No bad losses, and wins over VT, KSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Houston, and a pair over Troy. If their offensive woes are put to rest, I fear South Carolina (especially as a Gator fan. 5 SEC losses would hurt bad.)
Yuck and a half, it's Texas still in the top 25. They don't deserve it. Not after all-but-losing to Nebraska. It wasn't even a pile of mistakes, it was just poor football. I think I said before the OU game that if they lost there they would lose 3 or 4 more. Well that can still happen with the two other big Texas schools and Ok State to come. Probably won't quite come to fruition, but this team is going to disappoint. Charles is going to be take this team on his shoulders to make them win. Still, though, look out for them in the title hunt next year!
I only give Bama a little love, despite the fact their opponents from this season went 6-2 this week with some key wins. They are looking more and more glamorous, that's for sure. Next week is obviously the test for Saban, though. Is he going to come in prepared to the rims and hungry... or too nervous that their season tails off? I'm still not 100% convinced about Bama. But their losses are only by a combined 10 points, in Jacksonville and versus a tough, yet mercurial Georgia team. Auburn should also be an interesting end of season run. 2-0 in those two big games and Nick Saban deserves all the praise he gets and then some. 1-1 and he's definitely Alabama's coach to lead them into the future. 0-2? Same old, same old for Bama football of recent. Bring back Mike Shula! :-)
Clemson moves up with a solid win over Maryland, but they are still another team I need to see one more convincing win from. After personally seeing how much a lie Duke's close games are this season, Clemson needs to dominate to impress me. But they could well be the team to really put an axe in BC's title hopes. 100 points in 2 weeks looks nice. Beating Maryland will continue to look good. But VT and GT won't so much. Still, if they win out, they've got a fair shot at the ACC title game and a BCS bowl, so they have a lot to play for!
Boise State has to jump into the top 25 at this point. And it isn't at all because of last year's showcase. They hop right over Troy, whose portfolio took a hit because of how Florida fared and because they played yet another bad team. They can show the OSU win was for real in 7 days! But I think Boise is by far the best non-conference team (yeah, you heard me Hawaii)... they've beaten 4 of the better teams in their conference in 4 weeks, plus Wyoming and Southern Miss out of conference, and gave Washington a bit of a game on the road. They can tidy up lose ends this week vs San Diego State and really settle things up for their season-ender at Hawaii. I wonder if Boise could make the BCS if they win out? Teams keep losing at the current rate... and a non-top-16 team wins a conference, and I wouldn't be surprised.
And the SEC rounds out the top 25. It's still quite interesting to compare Auburn to Florida in terms of resume at this point. Auburn's losses come to LSU, South Florida, and Mississippi State by a combined 14 points. They beat Kansas State and Vandy. And, oh yeah, they also stuck it to Florida on the road. They are nearly done in the SEC West race, but I've gotta say they will be the cream of the mid-level bowls. Georgia and Alabama will show whether that's the case.
Last, but not least, it's Kentucky. I'm sure the humans will drop them WELL out of the polls this week... but I wouldn't be so quick. Have you forgotten the LSU win? Mississippi State is another SEC team that is better than anyone thinks. Sure, they should have won this game easily, but they really are a good team. Woodson had an off game, but I can see them winning 2 of 3 still vs Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. 5 ranked SEC East teams (and the 6th not too far off). Amazing. But they really are this good. I wonder if 5 can finish out in the top 25? We shall see!
I dropped Wake back a bit because I reconsidered their games... particularly how they haven't really beaten any team by much this year... but they can get back in next week by beating Virginia. I don't think there's a lot else to say about my other votes category... so that's that. I wonder what'll happen next week? Probably more chaos! And it's fun (despite the fact it'll push the call for playoffs)!
Have a good one!
So here comes the new top 25. The turnover of teams continues, but the undefeated teams are finally starting to suggest that at least two of them might emerge and kill off the chaos theories (all 4 major undefeateds beat top 25 teams, and arguably their strongest opponents left on the reg season schedule), and the poll gets a major overhaul this week as we finally got a much better idea on quite a few teams...
1 Ohio State 9-0 / win @ Penn State || 0
2 Kansas 8-0 / win @ Texas A&M || +4
3 Arizona State 8-0 / win vs California || +6
4 Oregon 7-1 / win vs USC || -1
5 Boston College 8-0 / win @ Virginia Tech || -3
6 LSU 7-1 / OFF || -2
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win @ Rutgers || 0
8 Oklahoma 7-1 / OFF || -3
9 Hawaii 7-0 / win vs NMSt || +2
10 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Iowa St || +3
11 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs USF || +10
12 Virginia Tech 6-2 / loss vs Boston College || -4
13 Georgia 6-2 / win vs Florida || NR
14 Florida 5-3 / loss vs Georgia || -2
15 South Florida 6-2 / loss @ UConn || -7
16 Michigan 7-2 / win vs Minnesota || +4
17 Tennessee 4-3 / win vs South Carolina || NR
18 USC 6-2 / loss @ Oregon || -1
19 South Carolina 6-3 / loss @ Tennessee || -3
20 Texas 7-2 / win vs Nebraska || -1
21 Alabama 6-2 / OFF || +1
22 Clemson 6-2 / win @ Maryland || +3
23 Boise State 7-1 / win @ Fresno State || NR
24 Auburn 6-3 / win vs Mississippi || NR
25 Kentucky 6-2 / loss vs Mississippi State || -10
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Wake Forest, Purdue, Virginia, Kansas State, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Miami, Houston, Vanderbilt, BYU, New Mexico, Maryland, Rutgers, Florida State, Fresno State, Cincinnati, Oregon State
DROPPED OUT: Virginia, Penn State, Wake Forest, Rutgers
Breakdown:
Ohio State may have been the first team labeled the best to step up and show they really are the best... at least since LSU's win over VT or USC's over Nebraska... but they looked ready to play. On the road at Penn State was a big game. And they played big football. Very, very impressive. If they win out, they should be #1 at the end, in every poll, if no one is insane.
OK, OK, that's it. I can't underrate them any longer. They've beaten three very quality Big 12 opponents on the road... and I'm ready to predict they'll beat Missouri at home to finish the year... setting up a very intriguing Big 12 Title game possibly. Yeah, they have to get there first... but Nebraska and Iowa State at home SHOULD be easy wins. The road game at Oklahoma State will be very interesting, as it'll match what I now consider the best road team in the country (THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING) versus probably the biggest homer in the nation this year in OSU. ..... Here's a very interesting possibility that is a little more possible today: all 4 undefeateds do win out..... leading to December 1st - Ohio State @ Michigan, Kansas vs. Oklahoma, Arizona St vs Arizona, and Boston College playing Virginia Tech again. And can you imagine if Arizona State is the team to lose!?! Arizona might have turned a corner today, so they'd better come out really strong if they do undefeated until that point. But everything this weekend was (4 undefeated teams playing ranked opponents), that one could be even better! Throw in LSU in the SEC title game and West Virginia playing Pitt... we could end up with one of the biggest upset days in college football history (paling even 2001) to crown a crazy year!
Arizona State makes another jump up after California... but did they really play all that well? They fell behind big early, which didn't show a lot of readiness. But I guess it just continues to show they are a late starter, as they've gotten off slow in a few games. Where a week ago I had basically already decided each undefeated team would have a loss... indeed, the national title picture has now gotten VERY interesting with some possible big arguments when the season wraps up. What if the 4 big conference teams go undefeated? I think it definitely comes down to ASU and Kansas....... and ASU probably nips in, honestly! It should be very close... but if Arizona State goes in and beats Oregon at home... they've got a win Oklahoma can only dream of (sorry, Missouri doesn't appear to be nearly the caliber). UCLA and especially Arizona will pad their numbers as well. Oh yeah, and they already have the lead in the polls. Of course, then there is the question about what happens to solid one loss teams like LSU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Some of this will sort itself out (see above in the Kansas box!). But if ASU wins out, they've earned my whole pile of respect. I don't think the Pac 10 is as good as the SEC (further evidenced by UCLA's loss today), but if ASU wins them all, in my mind, I'd just nip them above a one loss team.
4 vs 5 was a really tough choice. Additionally, I again thought about having LSU above Oregon (I may take a quick look at last week's poll, but I try not to let it have a huge impact on this week). But again, I just edged Oregon ahead. I might have thought they were capable of more this week... but in terms of momentum and respect, today looks huge. I heard ESPN talking about the Oregon versus LSU comparison... that could be an AWESOME one if it comes down to it! There's really no wrong answer. And I know I'll hear PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF if it does come down to it. So I'm hoping, despite how exciting that would be, that it doesn't. Because they'd have such similar resumes: both having beat a top OOC team early by a ton (that turned it around) - Michigan and VTech, both haven beaten a top team in their conference opponent (if Oregon loses, they won't look much better than a Florida win), and both having lost by the slimmest of margins. LSU at least lost on the road, but Cal looked like the better team at the time... Oregon would also have USC, while LSU would be stuck with a pile of wins over solid SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia???). Quite interesting. But Oregon is a yard from a perfect season, don't forget that. Will be fun to see which team emerges from the Pac 10, that's for sure!
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This is going to be one of those things that fans of a team would want to kill me for! I drop Boston College 3 places for winning!?!?!??! But COME ON! Did you see the game!?! They did not earn that game in any way whatsoever. And, you know, I surely do subscribe to the fact sometimes a team just has to pull out a lucky one to make their season (I think of Oklahoma State and TAMU for OU in 2000 and also some MAC team or like Minnesota or something that should have beaten Ohio State in 2002 (or didn't they just almost lose EVERY game!!!?!). But honestly BC showed they AREN'T that good. The other top teams stepped up in a huge way. Meanwhile, on Thursday, it looked like a battle to decide who was more disgusting. Every time VT would go nowhere offensively, this supposed Heisman candidate in Ryan would come out and miss the mark by 10 yards. Sure, blame the rain all you want. And you can believe he won't have periods like that again. But I think this is just the first glimmer of things to come. I'm happy to be rooting fully for FSU for the first time in... a while. :-) And if FSU does win, I can tell you for a fact, BC should barely be in the top 25... FSU isn't that good. At Maryland and at Clemson are tough to sweep too. Then Miami that final weekend. And then a title game (Miami, VT, or Virginia?). BC, you gotta prove you want it.
LSU slips down to a solid 6 behind the top 5. I feel more secure placing them above Oklahoma... but still can't see enough room to slip them past Oregon. The Nick Saban Bowl looks like it could be a beast now, though, and in Tuscaloosa... oooh boy, that's a doozy. And you know if Bama wins, they take control of the west (though Auburn could still put a spot in that plan). Imagine Bama versus UF for the title!?! Who'd have thought LSU would be the SEC team out as we look today. I'd certainly smile! But after a run of 4 straight ranked (at gametime) opponents and 6 of the last 8, let's just see if they come out hotter after a week off they really needed. It might not even be close.
Another close choice here... but I think West Virginia showed they have some quality OU doesn't this weekend, by winning handily on the road against a ranked team. With Slaton and White looking like money, I really do see them winning out, even as they play 3 of the 5 best Big East teams (UConn, Cincy, and Louisville). OU or West Virginia would be another interesting National Title game question.
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After many favorable weeks for Oklahoma, this one butchered them. Where you thought you could count on an undefeated team to lose... no such luck. The south keeps looking uglier by the day. And a week to "savor" the Iowa State effort doesn't leave anyone thinking good things about Oklahoma, I think. And I'm not sure they'll look any better against TAMU next week. @Texas Tech still looks daunting, even as it's looking like TTech might be down and out... and then that OSU game looks dicier and dicier to be sure!
Oh good golly. I already said the team this week probably hurt more than any other was Oklahoma. Well, the team this week helped by FAR more than any other was Hawaii. 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 in the BCS lost. Hawaii is 17. Georgia could go by them. But Texas doesn't deserve to one bit, and it'll be tough for Michigan to. Uconn might come up close too. But the point is, this team may even come in tomorrow at BCS time in the sacred #12 slot. And if they don't, they have to be confident now they'll get the last bit more. Oh, oh yeah, Hawaii, you might want to be careful. That whole counting your chickens deal. Boise State looks BRUTAL. Hawaii showed they might have a little punch still left in them... but can they get through their tough tough final 1/4 season?
Most people will probably put Missouri above Hawaii. Fair enough, I guess... but I think people have forgotten how much weight they are giving wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Tech... all which have fallen on hard times. I'm still not impressed because they didn't look like a threat against OU. They "hung with" them. But didn't look dangerous. Still, they have 4 good games ahead of them and could really turn people around.
Some people will surely think I'm crazy driving UConn up this high suddenly. But did you forget? They are a point from still being undefeated, and that to a still intriguing Virginia team. Maybe it's a bit of a leap, but beating a hungry USF team scores major points for me. Of course Rutgers-UConn may be the best game no one watches next week... it sure excites me! It's funny because if they win out... they maybe just deserve consideration with the 1 loss teams above still. They won't get it. But they do. Oh yeah, but I doubt they do that!
VT only falls 4 spots!?!?!? Sure! They won that game! They just have an awful fourth quarter coach! LSU is still good, and VTech still looked primed to win quite a few games. But what a shock they blow another top chance to take control in their division. Ugg. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop 2 or even 3 to GT, FSU, Miami, and Virginia.
Man, there just isn't anyone left to put in this part of the poll. UConn and VT really got the favor they did because EVERYONE in this section lost, and the teams that won further back mostly looked pedestrian. Georgia takes the next spot... but since when did they have Troy next week!?! Umm, yipe! I make Troy the FAVORITE! Georgia will be too emotionally high after beating UF. BTW, nice class (or not) with the whole dancing in the endzone deal. Blah. Fair enough, though, they won it, fair and square with better play on the field and key turnovers.
Florida also doesn't fall much. Even with 3 losses, they are 13th in October. That's RARE. But I argue they still haven't lost to a bad team, even as up and down as Georgia is. They have still beaten Kentucky and Tennessee. My favorite thing: UF can still win the East! Only two teams have records above their's: Georgia and Tennessee. A loss by each of them (Georgia plays Auburn and Kentucky at home, UT still has Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky). If they each lose exactly once, it would make a three way tie with Florida. Any other team still with 3 losses only helps UF. Don't forget, UF just lost their first East game today. Still, there is sorrow here. And I'm also thinking it's time to be quiet as I was just getting boastful about saying UF would still get a title game shot, the moment they lost to LSU. I'm still wary of South Carolina up there.
How far does USF slip this week? It should be a ways. Any team to lose two in a row in October deserves a plunge... especially when the 2nd was a poor game vs. UConn. Yet they still own the best record in Florida (speaking of... what an ugly day... 1-4 on the slate for the state, with losses by both F_U's, USF, and UF, with Miami off and UCF to play tonight). Isn't it amazing how badly darlings keep crumbling!?! Remember two weeks ago how we were ready to give Kentucky and USF a title game? Whoops! But USF gets one more chance to get back on track: Cincy next week. It's really a fight to stave off elimination, so it'll be interesting. Did I point out that technically both teams are tied for last in the Big East!?! Blech!
Michigan is steadily rising... but I couldn't give them too much love. Moreso because their schedule since week 2 doesn't look that overpowering than anything... and they haven't been totally dominating. But few teams have. The season wrapup with Ohio State traveling to The Big House will be for the Big 10 (unless Michigan or Ohio State lose both their prior two games), and everyone has to wonder... what Michigan team will show up. You wonder if last year's heartbreaker to OSU was the cause of their horrible down period (don't forget, they actually lost 4 straight starting there... but have otherwise looked very championlike in the 2 years). Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road will show us whether this Michigan team is for real and will come in with a team that can win. I hope so!
Wow, what an amazing game! I was at the FSU-Duke game (blech), and so I missed seeing the UT-South Carolina game. I got the pick right with Tennessee winning... but boy it was more amazing a game than just some prediction could even capture. They gain back a lot of love from me. Yes, they were definitely smoked by Florida, Cal, AND Alabama on the road. And their only two big wins (South Carolina, Georgia) were at home. But they look like they've turned the corner (AGAIN). They outplayed South Carolina in the first half... then when they lost the momentum and fell apart... they buckled down and still took away a win. Yes, there was a ton of luck involved (like the fumble and false-start-negated FG), but I declare they come out of this game stronger as a team. ULL and Arkansas at home should help solidify that, if they play solid games... and if they do, I think they hold by far the best shot at winning the east, and win out.
Well, I'm finally ready to reaccept Southern Cal is a contender. Going on the road and falling just short against Oregon looked quite powerful. The problem is, their mistakes are what killed them... and they had a lot. I suppose they really are still one of the best football teams, skillwise... but they just need to overcome the mistakes. I want to argue they still have a shot at the Pac 10... but they need 2 more Oregon losses now pretty much, and that's tough. They are a good team... the Stanford loss I'll start to forget about... but being out of the title hunt in October must be a weird feeling in Los Angeles! I think they'll get by OSU easily next week...... then Cal should be an interesting game, with both teams sort of down-and-out.
The other USC falls just below the primary namesake with their loss. It's not so much that they lost, it's how they played the first half. I still think we totally underrated Vandy, and that's the heart of the reason they lost last week.... but boy if the top SEC teams aren't losing to teams they are supposed to beat a lot now (UF-Auburn, USC-Vandy, Kentucky-Miss St (oh, and Auburn-Miss St while you are at it)). But unlike the Pac-10, this showz the conference really is 11 deep. These teams didn't lose much in the way of bad OOC games... even the bottom tier teams. The SEC East is a ridiculous 15-1 OOC this year!!! If Georgia beats GTech and Troy, UF beats FSU, Tennessee dismantles their cupcake, USC beats Clemson, and especially if Vandy beats Wake Forest, it will 100% guarantee they are the best conference in the country by a mile. 31-5 out-of-conference as a whole is the SEC. And while most of those wins weren't over the supreme opponents... the losses tell another story: UT lost at Cal (the single SEC East loss OOC!), Bama lost a barnburner to FSU, Auburn lost a tight one to USF, Miss State got shellacked by WVU, and even lowly Mississippi only lost to Missouri by 13. No bad losses, and wins over VT, KSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Houston, and a pair over Troy. If their offensive woes are put to rest, I fear South Carolina (especially as a Gator fan. 5 SEC losses would hurt bad.)
Yuck and a half, it's Texas still in the top 25. They don't deserve it. Not after all-but-losing to Nebraska. It wasn't even a pile of mistakes, it was just poor football. I think I said before the OU game that if they lost there they would lose 3 or 4 more. Well that can still happen with the two other big Texas schools and Ok State to come. Probably won't quite come to fruition, but this team is going to disappoint. Charles is going to be take this team on his shoulders to make them win. Still, though, look out for them in the title hunt next year!
I only give Bama a little love, despite the fact their opponents from this season went 6-2 this week with some key wins. They are looking more and more glamorous, that's for sure. Next week is obviously the test for Saban, though. Is he going to come in prepared to the rims and hungry... or too nervous that their season tails off? I'm still not 100% convinced about Bama. But their losses are only by a combined 10 points, in Jacksonville and versus a tough, yet mercurial Georgia team. Auburn should also be an interesting end of season run. 2-0 in those two big games and Nick Saban deserves all the praise he gets and then some. 1-1 and he's definitely Alabama's coach to lead them into the future. 0-2? Same old, same old for Bama football of recent. Bring back Mike Shula! :-)
Clemson moves up with a solid win over Maryland, but they are still another team I need to see one more convincing win from. After personally seeing how much a lie Duke's close games are this season, Clemson needs to dominate to impress me. But they could well be the team to really put an axe in BC's title hopes. 100 points in 2 weeks looks nice. Beating Maryland will continue to look good. But VT and GT won't so much. Still, if they win out, they've got a fair shot at the ACC title game and a BCS bowl, so they have a lot to play for!
Boise State has to jump into the top 25 at this point. And it isn't at all because of last year's showcase. They hop right over Troy, whose portfolio took a hit because of how Florida fared and because they played yet another bad team. They can show the OSU win was for real in 7 days! But I think Boise is by far the best non-conference team (yeah, you heard me Hawaii)... they've beaten 4 of the better teams in their conference in 4 weeks, plus Wyoming and Southern Miss out of conference, and gave Washington a bit of a game on the road. They can tidy up lose ends this week vs San Diego State and really settle things up for their season-ender at Hawaii. I wonder if Boise could make the BCS if they win out? Teams keep losing at the current rate... and a non-top-16 team wins a conference, and I wouldn't be surprised.
And the SEC rounds out the top 25. It's still quite interesting to compare Auburn to Florida in terms of resume at this point. Auburn's losses come to LSU, South Florida, and Mississippi State by a combined 14 points. They beat Kansas State and Vandy. And, oh yeah, they also stuck it to Florida on the road. They are nearly done in the SEC West race, but I've gotta say they will be the cream of the mid-level bowls. Georgia and Alabama will show whether that's the case.
Last, but not least, it's Kentucky. I'm sure the humans will drop them WELL out of the polls this week... but I wouldn't be so quick. Have you forgotten the LSU win? Mississippi State is another SEC team that is better than anyone thinks. Sure, they should have won this game easily, but they really are a good team. Woodson had an off game, but I can see them winning 2 of 3 still vs Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. 5 ranked SEC East teams (and the 6th not too far off). Amazing. But they really are this good. I wonder if 5 can finish out in the top 25? We shall see!
I dropped Wake back a bit because I reconsidered their games... particularly how they haven't really beaten any team by much this year... but they can get back in next week by beating Virginia. I don't think there's a lot else to say about my other votes category... so that's that. I wonder what'll happen next week? Probably more chaos! And it's fun (despite the fact it'll push the call for playoffs)!
Have a good one!
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Top 25 (Oct 21st)
Well, I decided to relax a bit this weekend, and skipped out on doing any more picks (and, hey, I went 4-0 for a +10 week!). I'm thinking about tailing off on the spread picks, at least until/unless more people start paying more attention here, as they are really detracting from the point of this website... which is the championing of the BCS!
But it's Sunday, and that means it's poll time. And I'm a happy man as I look down the top 25!
1 Ohio State 8-0 / win vs Michigan State || 0
2 Boston College 6-0 / OFF || +1
3 Oregon 6-1 / win @ Washington || +4
4 LSU 7-1 / win vs Auburn || 0
5 Oklahoma 7-1 / win @ Iowa State || 0
6 Kansas 7-0 / win @ Colorado || +4
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win vs Mississippi State || +1
8 South Florida 6-1/ loss @ Rutgers || -6
9 Arizona State 7-0 / off || 0
10 Virginia Tech 6-1 / off || +2
11 Hawaii 7-0 / off || +3
12 Florida 5-2 / win @ Kentucky || +3
13 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Texas Tech || +3
14 Virginia 7-1 / win @ Maryland || +6
15 Kentucky 6-2 / loss @ Florida || -4
16 South Carolina 6-2 / loss vs Vanderbilt || -10
17 USC 6-1 / win @ Notre Dame || +2
18 Penn State 6-2 / win @ Indiana || +4
19 Texas 6-2 / win @ Baylor || -2
20 Michigan 6-2 / win @ Illinois || NR
21 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Alabama 6-2 / win vs Tennessee || NR
23 Wake Forest 5-2 / win @ Navy || +2
24 Rutgers 5-2 / win vs South Florida || NR
25 Clemson 5-2 / win vs Central Michigan || NR
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Troy, UCLA, Auburn, Georgia, California, Maryland, Georgia Tech, BYU, Boise State, Kansas State, Purdue, Miami, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Houston, New Mexico, Fresno State
Dropped out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Auburn, California, Kansas State
Team by team:
Ohio State doesn't come out looking all that great. The widespread word is they survived the upset curse (I was REALLY hoping for a second straight week of top 2 going down - last week was the first time the top 2 went down once since 1996! But honestly, they were cruising until a really bad string of mistakes. But USC, Oklahoma, and even UCF have had the same periods of misfortune and not managed to win. Yes, they beat an unranked team, and yes they go to State College next week. But I think they are looking solider by the week, and this was as tough a game as any. Won't be easy, but they are starting to smell it perhaps.
Boston College moves up to #2 by default. Thankfully for them, their next four opponents continue to look better and better, and help them separate from the 1-loss teams... should they manage to win out somehow. I still don't see them doing it... but Thursday's game (wow, what a set of Thursday games this year, huh!?!) is the biggest of them all!
Sorry Oklahoma and sorry LSU, Oregon just couldn't sit behind you anymore. While you both struggled with teams I really feel you should have beaten (LSU's was the more difficult, but at home and in a game they should've shown they were not an ordinary team by responding after last week's tough loss), Oregon went on the road and beat another pretty decent team. I see that they didn't exactly dominate... but keep in mind, this team is one last second fumble from tying it versus Cal. LSU is close, but I think Oregon has to get the tweak here, if only based upon recent play. I am becoming quite certain that if Oregon wins out, they should be #2. Hello two top 25 (or probably top 10 in most polls) teams the next two weeks. At home, you have to think they can. Nov 3 vs ASU could be epic! The two forgotten Pac 10 teams battling it out for supremacy!
LSU you only lost out this week. You broadened the gap over Oklahoma by beating another top 25 team... but in the meantime, Kentucky and South Carolina both took one on the chin. If Virginia Tech wins next week, I'll have to hand a few points back over... but until Oregon loses, you are now behind for struggling so bad against Auburn and letting them impose their will in the 4th quarter at home... plus almost another coaching travesty with the pass... 1 more second, a drop... different outcome. These coaching gambles and slips will catch up. I thought they were invincible 3 weeks ago. Nope. And now Alabama has suddenly emerged. It's like every team who is getting set to play LSU suddenly becomes good!
Oklahoma fails to capitalize in my poll as well... but they'll move up where it counts - the BCS. Early Christmas cards for Rutgers. Oklahoma is looking pretty good to slide in, even as their play leaves a lot to be desired. They also definitely aren't the team they were before Colorado, and with Texas Tech and OSU remaining, it could go south. Then again, the giant test is almost certainly going to be the conference title game, where Kansas (or Missouri) are really starting to look monstrous and scary!
Speaking of the Jayhawks! How can they not be a top 10 team after going on the road to beat a top team in their division for the second time in 3 weeks. And this time, it was their defense that really showed muscle! Yes, I agree, you can still fiddle with the question of whether they can beat a top team... I can understand wariness... but they have done some pretty amazing things the past couple weeks... winning on the road in places Oklahoma and Texas (ok, fine, Texas didn't even lose AT Manhattan) couldn't! If they are one of only 1 or 2 undefeated teams (discounting Hawaii), it's tough to say they don't deserve to play, especially given how no one else is really outstandingly emerging!
So, does the whole world criticize me for moving USF behind the team they beat, West Virginia? It will be REALLY interesting to see how the pollsters settle this one (or if it's an issue at all). But there are two key rules in college football
- If you lose, lose early
- We vote on who is the better team, not who has the deciding record
And these are what make college football great! The importance of timing of a loss came up twice in conversation this week somehow! People argue: 'why should a team be punished for playing their best opponents later in the season?'. Sorry, but it really is a story of what have you done for me lately........ we are trying to crown the best team in the nation here. Whichever one lost earlier in the season is showing they are better. The real key here is the second great thing about college football, and it's polls.... we can compare two teams, two games, and recognize which one looks better. West Virginia looked much more solid against USF earlier this year than USF did this past Thursday. USF just kept throwing away chance after chance. And Rutgers didn't have nearly as much to play for as USF did in their game vs WVU. Long discussion short: I think West Virginia is definitely the better team. Beating Miss State more handily than I really would have imagined today continued to show me they are for real. And while I loss half my title game I got settled with a couple weeks back (that being South Carolina vs West Virginia), WVU looks like they are ready to roll into this deal. Winning at Rutgers handily should and will seal the deal this week.
South Florida stays inside the top 10, but they looked weak on offense and paper thin on defense against West Virginia. 362 yards looks fair enough for offense. But they failed to convert at key times on long drives in the 3rd quarter, dropping them behind... and then, following the td drive that looked like it might define their season... they got the ball 3 times and went nowhere. USF's defense gave up 400 yards to Rutgers... who only managed 392 against Maryland. And they just couldn't get it done. I'm sure USF and Rutgers will both get more love in the polls this week than I'm willing to give them; I'm ready to jump off the Big East bandwagon once-and-for-fully. But we'll see how it goes the next few weeks. South Florida loses at UConn. By 14 or more. You heard it hear first (I hope).
Here Arizona State, have an idle. Wait, you've already had 7 of those this year (sorry still Colorado). Road games against opponents with combined 5-9 (1-8 conference) records = useless. You look like Hawaii. Just thank God that you aren't, and you get a shot to prove it the next four weeks (wow, Cal, Oregon, UCLA, USC looks like the hardest schedule since the advent of the forward pass). Enjoy!
Oh, I'm already more interested in like 2009... Elway!!! Sorry Rudy Carpenter!
We're going to have to enjoy the top 10 battle this week in the ACC. Savor it, they don't happen very often in that conference in recent years! I continue to hold my breath wondering whether Virginia Tech will finally take the big step they never really seemed to take... and forcefully wrest control of their conference away. All they have to do is beat an overrated team at home, so it looks palatable. But don't give them too much credit just yet! You know, they win, they could (pretty amazingly) play in the National Championship game. Even as disgusting as that LSU drubbing/manhandling was.
I almost cried. I had to move Hawaii up 3 slots. New Mexico State is 4-4... so if I were setting Vegas odds, I'd favor them! 8-) What's kind of sad is that Hawaii will move up to around 15 in BCS... only 3 slots out of a guaranteed BCS payday. Oh well, they deserve their shot, and it'll be fun watching an SEC team like Kentucky/LSU, Pac 10 team like USC/Oregon/ASU, or someone like Michigan dissect them! What's REALLY sad (ok, really it's just plain scary) is that they would be within 13 spots of the BCS title game... and at the this season's rate (and given their remaining schedule that will only significantly boost their SOS)... they're bound to end up #1. Oh the humanity.
Why mommy, why can't I move Florida past Hawaii!?! Ooh, I can smell it! I've been saying it since before the LSU game even ended... don't count the Gators out of going back to Baton Rouge... for the National Championship! #15 going into the week, and they should easily now pass Kentucky, South Carolina, and Cal. Plus I argue the great victory should move them past USC if anything is fair in the world (and thanks to computers, it sort of is!). That's 11th. Oregon still plays ASU. Oklahoma would still have to play Kansas. VT plays BC. And they all have conference title games to worry about, sans Ohio State and the Pac 10 remnant(s). And they still get South Carolina (ok, I wish you hadn't lost), Georgia, and quite possibly LSU again. It isn't probable. But it continues to keep steam and look more possible by the week. A lot of football to go! And everyone would then hate UF if they won ANOTHER title!
Oh, I can't forget... the day also went terrific just because Tennessee lost and the Gators are 100% back in control in the east. With 2 losses. In the SEC. They are in control of their destiny in October!?! Crazy days!
Now WIN that cocktail party, please! One more loss and you ARE done. And I cry.
Missouri looks solid, and maybe I should be moving them past Florida (and maybe the voters/BCS should/will as well). Really a tough battle, as Missouri blasted the second best Big 12 south team at home, while Florida went on the road to beat a top 10 team. Really hard to move Missouri past UF. Really I didn't even consider, though, that Missouri might be the better team last week. Now it's a thin hair dividing them. Seeing as they should move past Hawaii in both human polls, I should correct and move Florida down a spot in the BCS. Oops, sorry, too tired to. :-) Still, at Kansas and Kansas State will define their season. If they win those two and in San Antonio... oh look, yet another fringe team crossing their fingers that they might do the inconceivable. This indeed could end up the most amazing college football season ever......... Missouri vs. Hawaii!?!? **coughs up blood**
There weren't a lot of teams moving way up on the opinion poll this week. Kansas. And Virginia. I'm a jerk. I just won't stop giving this team no love. But after this weeks win, ON THE ROAD, against a pretty hulky Maryland squad, it's time to stop being a jerk. So who things they stumble now that that happens? Oh no, that's a lot of hands! Actually, here's another team that could roll through the ACC and set up a historic battle against Virginia Tech. Don't even start mentioning National Championship to me, or I'll throw grapefruit.
Kentucky didn't have it today. I wouldn't write them off just yet... except probably when it comes to the SEC East race. Having lost to the two top contenders (UF and USC) in their side of the division divide, and with the other two (Georgia and Tennessee) still to come, they are all but toast. It's a very interesting east race this year, because it's really being controlled by the western teams and when everybody plays them. Has anybody realized that Florida has only lost to west teams.... but also that Vandy is the only other team done with their western schedule (losing 2 of their 3 there) and could still sneak into the division title!?! What if they'd beaten Georgia!?! Whoa! Oh yeah, I was talking about Kentucky. Definitely still a potent threat... it'll be interesting to see where they end up during bowl season. Beyond that, the excitement is gone from Kentucky, off to find another home for next week on it's weekly travelling.
In most years, this upset would mark the upset of the year. Except that we've arguably had the three biggest upsets in college football history (Michigan-App St, Louisville-'Cuse, and USC-Stanford) plus Oklahoma-Colorado, Texas-KState, Florida-Auburn, and Cal-OregonSt among others. Still, what a kick in the groin for Steve Spurrier! They lost to Vandrebilt!?! At HOME!?!?!?! I caught the score early in this one (17-0 early 2nd) and said "rut roh" immediately for South Carolina. Vanderbilt finally stopped being pesky this year and won. You can look back now... Carolina looked spectacular before this week on first glance... having one loss... by 12... at LSU. And having beaten Kentucky and won at Georgia. But now the other stat leaps out: they didn't win a game by more than 17 points all year, except versus DI-AA South Carolina State... including such avid opponents as Louisiana-Lafayette, North Carolina, and Mississippi State. I'll give you a cookie (a nice invisible one) or an ESPN 2 Minute Drill muffin, though, if you saw this one coming. I must say, though, that I still favor the Gamecocks to win out. I don't know how Florida can win this year after surviving last year in the Swamp. And what if SC wins out with Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson... and adds a crowning blowout of LSU in Atlanta... where in the world does that put them in the BCS!?!
USC, congratulations, you move up a couple spots. I guess I am almost impressed with your treatment of Notre Dame after they've started looking like a team again. But wow it just furthers the overrating. It's still Notre Dame!!!! Ummm, maybe I'll give you even odds at Oregon next week now? I doubt it, but they've got a shot now. One team's season will end there. Can they right the ship rapidly and somehow beat three of their best 4 conference opponents... on the road!?
Penn State moves up with a good win at Indiana. They should emerge into the top 25 just in time for next week's hosting of Ohio State. And there are a LOT of people rooting for them next week. This is now just like the white out game 2 years ago in terms of attention and seriousness. Time to salvage a bit of their season, I hope! 10-2 would look respectable, and Michigan State and Purdue aren't the most difficult finishing stretch.
Texas settles back down to earth a bit here. I thought they could do more with Baylor. Plus I may've been a little too giddy that they blew out Iowa State as predicted last week. Still, it looks they might have stabilized things... and now I'm only calling for about 1 more loss, instead of 2 or 3 as I did at one point. But I wonder if Mac Brown gets fired if Texas loses to Nebraska in Austin!!?!? :-P
Michigan is officially back in the House. Wow, when people snuck in the reality that Michigan could still turn things around and win the Big 10... did you actually take them seriously!?!?!?! Maybe after the Appalachian State game... but how would you do that after Oregon literally toasted them. Yet here they are, they just keep getting past one big test after another. Notre Dame. Penn State. Northwestern. Eastern Michigan. Ok, at that point, we believed they had balanced things out on board, and would settle into a healthy bowl game. But then beating Purdue and then winning at Illinois!?! You might want to take notice Ohio State. Maybe. They haven't totally proven themselves yet. Michigan State and Wisconsin will certainly bring fuller measurement.
UConn rebounds terrifically back into the polls this week after beating Louisville. I can't say I'm surprised, as Louisville is all about emotion this year. They were missing inspiration vs. Syracuse... then came out the next two games depressed. Then it was a big ranked Cincy team and suddenly they were everything. And now, welcome back to the less exuberant Louisteam. I'm not sure where to put Uconn. Remember, they're one simple point from still being undefeated. Hi, meet South Florida. Prove who you are. I'll come back in a week.
Thanks Alabama. You're another up-and-down club... and I thought this could be the week you really lost all heart, after you were knocked back to the bottom dwellers of the SEC West. But I'll give you major props, you responded big time against Tennessee (thanks again!), and now it's time to get a bit excited about LSU! Maybe I was quick to write them off after being lifeless versus Georgia (whom they should have thwomped)... but they are tied for the division lead with LSU next week at home... and then the Iron Bowl to close out. The could still pull BCS out of the letter grabbag!
Wake Forest beats a decent Navy team and keeps rolling. Yes, their record doesn't look spectacular with the loss to Nebraska... but having won 5 straight, I think they are really rumbling along at this point. I thought this season would be a washout, but here they are in the Atlantic race (theoretically). If they lose anywhere coming home, I repeal my impressed nature... especially if that someone in UNC this week.
Rutgers slides back in obviously after beating South Florida, but I'm not sure they are really as good as they smell after this one. Then again, maybe this win will inspire them. And Cincy and Maryland still look like ok losses. This week's game versus WVU probably decides the Big East in my opinion, though. If Rutgers wins they are ready to run the table.
Last but not least, Clemson moves in by the route of domination. Yikes, anyone buying MAC stock had better sell rapidly. Clemson showed me that they are back on the hot side of the road, DISMANTLING the Chippewas. Yes, Central Michigan may be paper pretty, being 4-3 before this week and leading the west, while having beaten no one and having been beaten hard by Kansas and Purdue as well... but I didn't expect that kind of score. What's so bad about close losses to Georgia Tech (admittedly ugly) and Virginia Tech? So they don't like Tech's, that's all! Show me you are interested in this ranking by beating Maryland in a week. Oh, and then make sure and handle Duke. Then you may get 3 top 25 teams to show off against!
How about this year?!? How can you argue for a playoff though? It's bad enough that all these teams that keep losing still can entertain outside shots at the title game! If you instill an 8 or 16 team playoff, it could get putrid. Heck, Hawaii would end up with a shot, and I think is exactly what is a retarded idea. Even if they win out. Especially if they win out. Unless it's by 14 or more a game, with some serious potency.
This will be every year if you want a playoff. Teams will realize that top 2 or top 4 don't matter... that they can play subs. If 1 or 2 losses means nothing. So stick with the BCS. More down the line!
But it's Sunday, and that means it's poll time. And I'm a happy man as I look down the top 25!
1 Ohio State 8-0 / win vs Michigan State || 0
2 Boston College 6-0 / OFF || +1
3 Oregon 6-1 / win @ Washington || +4
4 LSU 7-1 / win vs Auburn || 0
5 Oklahoma 7-1 / win @ Iowa State || 0
6 Kansas 7-0 / win @ Colorado || +4
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win vs Mississippi State || +1
8 South Florida 6-1/ loss @ Rutgers || -6
9 Arizona State 7-0 / off || 0
10 Virginia Tech 6-1 / off || +2
11 Hawaii 7-0 / off || +3
12 Florida 5-2 / win @ Kentucky || +3
13 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Texas Tech || +3
14 Virginia 7-1 / win @ Maryland || +6
15 Kentucky 6-2 / loss @ Florida || -4
16 South Carolina 6-2 / loss vs Vanderbilt || -10
17 USC 6-1 / win @ Notre Dame || +2
18 Penn State 6-2 / win @ Indiana || +4
19 Texas 6-2 / win @ Baylor || -2
20 Michigan 6-2 / win @ Illinois || NR
21 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs Louisville || NR
22 Alabama 6-2 / win vs Tennessee || NR
23 Wake Forest 5-2 / win @ Navy || +2
24 Rutgers 5-2 / win vs South Florida || NR
25 Clemson 5-2 / win vs Central Michigan || NR
Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Troy, UCLA, Auburn, Georgia, California, Maryland, Georgia Tech, BYU, Boise State, Kansas State, Purdue, Miami, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Houston, New Mexico, Fresno State
Dropped out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Auburn, California, Kansas State
Team by team:
Ohio State doesn't come out looking all that great. The widespread word is they survived the upset curse (I was REALLY hoping for a second straight week of top 2 going down - last week was the first time the top 2 went down once since 1996! But honestly, they were cruising until a really bad string of mistakes. But USC, Oklahoma, and even UCF have had the same periods of misfortune and not managed to win. Yes, they beat an unranked team, and yes they go to State College next week. But I think they are looking solider by the week, and this was as tough a game as any. Won't be easy, but they are starting to smell it perhaps.
Boston College moves up to #2 by default. Thankfully for them, their next four opponents continue to look better and better, and help them separate from the 1-loss teams... should they manage to win out somehow. I still don't see them doing it... but Thursday's game (wow, what a set of Thursday games this year, huh!?!) is the biggest of them all!
Sorry Oklahoma and sorry LSU, Oregon just couldn't sit behind you anymore. While you both struggled with teams I really feel you should have beaten (LSU's was the more difficult, but at home and in a game they should've shown they were not an ordinary team by responding after last week's tough loss), Oregon went on the road and beat another pretty decent team. I see that they didn't exactly dominate... but keep in mind, this team is one last second fumble from tying it versus Cal. LSU is close, but I think Oregon has to get the tweak here, if only based upon recent play. I am becoming quite certain that if Oregon wins out, they should be #2. Hello two top 25 (or probably top 10 in most polls) teams the next two weeks. At home, you have to think they can. Nov 3 vs ASU could be epic! The two forgotten Pac 10 teams battling it out for supremacy!
LSU you only lost out this week. You broadened the gap over Oklahoma by beating another top 25 team... but in the meantime, Kentucky and South Carolina both took one on the chin. If Virginia Tech wins next week, I'll have to hand a few points back over... but until Oregon loses, you are now behind for struggling so bad against Auburn and letting them impose their will in the 4th quarter at home... plus almost another coaching travesty with the pass... 1 more second, a drop... different outcome. These coaching gambles and slips will catch up. I thought they were invincible 3 weeks ago. Nope. And now Alabama has suddenly emerged. It's like every team who is getting set to play LSU suddenly becomes good!
Oklahoma fails to capitalize in my poll as well... but they'll move up where it counts - the BCS. Early Christmas cards for Rutgers. Oklahoma is looking pretty good to slide in, even as their play leaves a lot to be desired. They also definitely aren't the team they were before Colorado, and with Texas Tech and OSU remaining, it could go south. Then again, the giant test is almost certainly going to be the conference title game, where Kansas (or Missouri) are really starting to look monstrous and scary!
Speaking of the Jayhawks! How can they not be a top 10 team after going on the road to beat a top team in their division for the second time in 3 weeks. And this time, it was their defense that really showed muscle! Yes, I agree, you can still fiddle with the question of whether they can beat a top team... I can understand wariness... but they have done some pretty amazing things the past couple weeks... winning on the road in places Oklahoma and Texas (ok, fine, Texas didn't even lose AT Manhattan) couldn't! If they are one of only 1 or 2 undefeated teams (discounting Hawaii), it's tough to say they don't deserve to play, especially given how no one else is really outstandingly emerging!
So, does the whole world criticize me for moving USF behind the team they beat, West Virginia? It will be REALLY interesting to see how the pollsters settle this one (or if it's an issue at all). But there are two key rules in college football
- If you lose, lose early
- We vote on who is the better team, not who has the deciding record
And these are what make college football great! The importance of timing of a loss came up twice in conversation this week somehow! People argue: 'why should a team be punished for playing their best opponents later in the season?'. Sorry, but it really is a story of what have you done for me lately........ we are trying to crown the best team in the nation here. Whichever one lost earlier in the season is showing they are better. The real key here is the second great thing about college football, and it's polls.... we can compare two teams, two games, and recognize which one looks better. West Virginia looked much more solid against USF earlier this year than USF did this past Thursday. USF just kept throwing away chance after chance. And Rutgers didn't have nearly as much to play for as USF did in their game vs WVU. Long discussion short: I think West Virginia is definitely the better team. Beating Miss State more handily than I really would have imagined today continued to show me they are for real. And while I loss half my title game I got settled with a couple weeks back (that being South Carolina vs West Virginia), WVU looks like they are ready to roll into this deal. Winning at Rutgers handily should and will seal the deal this week.
South Florida stays inside the top 10, but they looked weak on offense and paper thin on defense against West Virginia. 362 yards looks fair enough for offense. But they failed to convert at key times on long drives in the 3rd quarter, dropping them behind... and then, following the td drive that looked like it might define their season... they got the ball 3 times and went nowhere. USF's defense gave up 400 yards to Rutgers... who only managed 392 against Maryland. And they just couldn't get it done. I'm sure USF and Rutgers will both get more love in the polls this week than I'm willing to give them; I'm ready to jump off the Big East bandwagon once-and-for-fully. But we'll see how it goes the next few weeks. South Florida loses at UConn. By 14 or more. You heard it hear first (I hope).
Here Arizona State, have an idle. Wait, you've already had 7 of those this year (sorry still Colorado). Road games against opponents with combined 5-9 (1-8 conference) records = useless. You look like Hawaii. Just thank God that you aren't, and you get a shot to prove it the next four weeks (wow, Cal, Oregon, UCLA, USC looks like the hardest schedule since the advent of the forward pass). Enjoy!
Oh, I'm already more interested in like 2009... Elway!!! Sorry Rudy Carpenter!
We're going to have to enjoy the top 10 battle this week in the ACC. Savor it, they don't happen very often in that conference in recent years! I continue to hold my breath wondering whether Virginia Tech will finally take the big step they never really seemed to take... and forcefully wrest control of their conference away. All they have to do is beat an overrated team at home, so it looks palatable. But don't give them too much credit just yet! You know, they win, they could (pretty amazingly) play in the National Championship game. Even as disgusting as that LSU drubbing/manhandling was.
I almost cried. I had to move Hawaii up 3 slots. New Mexico State is 4-4... so if I were setting Vegas odds, I'd favor them! 8-) What's kind of sad is that Hawaii will move up to around 15 in BCS... only 3 slots out of a guaranteed BCS payday. Oh well, they deserve their shot, and it'll be fun watching an SEC team like Kentucky/LSU, Pac 10 team like USC/Oregon/ASU, or someone like Michigan dissect them! What's REALLY sad (ok, really it's just plain scary) is that they would be within 13 spots of the BCS title game... and at the this season's rate (and given their remaining schedule that will only significantly boost their SOS)... they're bound to end up #1. Oh the humanity.
Why mommy, why can't I move Florida past Hawaii!?! Ooh, I can smell it! I've been saying it since before the LSU game even ended... don't count the Gators out of going back to Baton Rouge... for the National Championship! #15 going into the week, and they should easily now pass Kentucky, South Carolina, and Cal. Plus I argue the great victory should move them past USC if anything is fair in the world (and thanks to computers, it sort of is!). That's 11th. Oregon still plays ASU. Oklahoma would still have to play Kansas. VT plays BC. And they all have conference title games to worry about, sans Ohio State and the Pac 10 remnant(s). And they still get South Carolina (ok, I wish you hadn't lost), Georgia, and quite possibly LSU again. It isn't probable. But it continues to keep steam and look more possible by the week. A lot of football to go! And everyone would then hate UF if they won ANOTHER title!
Oh, I can't forget... the day also went terrific just because Tennessee lost and the Gators are 100% back in control in the east. With 2 losses. In the SEC. They are in control of their destiny in October!?! Crazy days!
Now WIN that cocktail party, please! One more loss and you ARE done. And I cry.
Missouri looks solid, and maybe I should be moving them past Florida (and maybe the voters/BCS should/will as well). Really a tough battle, as Missouri blasted the second best Big 12 south team at home, while Florida went on the road to beat a top 10 team. Really hard to move Missouri past UF. Really I didn't even consider, though, that Missouri might be the better team last week. Now it's a thin hair dividing them. Seeing as they should move past Hawaii in both human polls, I should correct and move Florida down a spot in the BCS. Oops, sorry, too tired to. :-) Still, at Kansas and Kansas State will define their season. If they win those two and in San Antonio... oh look, yet another fringe team crossing their fingers that they might do the inconceivable. This indeed could end up the most amazing college football season ever......... Missouri vs. Hawaii!?!? **coughs up blood**
There weren't a lot of teams moving way up on the opinion poll this week. Kansas. And Virginia. I'm a jerk. I just won't stop giving this team no love. But after this weeks win, ON THE ROAD, against a pretty hulky Maryland squad, it's time to stop being a jerk. So who things they stumble now that that happens? Oh no, that's a lot of hands! Actually, here's another team that could roll through the ACC and set up a historic battle against Virginia Tech. Don't even start mentioning National Championship to me, or I'll throw grapefruit.
Kentucky didn't have it today. I wouldn't write them off just yet... except probably when it comes to the SEC East race. Having lost to the two top contenders (UF and USC) in their side of the division divide, and with the other two (Georgia and Tennessee) still to come, they are all but toast. It's a very interesting east race this year, because it's really being controlled by the western teams and when everybody plays them. Has anybody realized that Florida has only lost to west teams.... but also that Vandy is the only other team done with their western schedule (losing 2 of their 3 there) and could still sneak into the division title!?! What if they'd beaten Georgia!?! Whoa! Oh yeah, I was talking about Kentucky. Definitely still a potent threat... it'll be interesting to see where they end up during bowl season. Beyond that, the excitement is gone from Kentucky, off to find another home for next week on it's weekly travelling.
In most years, this upset would mark the upset of the year. Except that we've arguably had the three biggest upsets in college football history (Michigan-App St, Louisville-'Cuse, and USC-Stanford) plus Oklahoma-Colorado, Texas-KState, Florida-Auburn, and Cal-OregonSt among others. Still, what a kick in the groin for Steve Spurrier! They lost to Vandrebilt!?! At HOME!?!?!?! I caught the score early in this one (17-0 early 2nd) and said "rut roh" immediately for South Carolina. Vanderbilt finally stopped being pesky this year and won. You can look back now... Carolina looked spectacular before this week on first glance... having one loss... by 12... at LSU. And having beaten Kentucky and won at Georgia. But now the other stat leaps out: they didn't win a game by more than 17 points all year, except versus DI-AA South Carolina State... including such avid opponents as Louisiana-Lafayette, North Carolina, and Mississippi State. I'll give you a cookie (a nice invisible one) or an ESPN 2 Minute Drill muffin, though, if you saw this one coming. I must say, though, that I still favor the Gamecocks to win out. I don't know how Florida can win this year after surviving last year in the Swamp. And what if SC wins out with Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson... and adds a crowning blowout of LSU in Atlanta... where in the world does that put them in the BCS!?!
USC, congratulations, you move up a couple spots. I guess I am almost impressed with your treatment of Notre Dame after they've started looking like a team again. But wow it just furthers the overrating. It's still Notre Dame!!!! Ummm, maybe I'll give you even odds at Oregon next week now? I doubt it, but they've got a shot now. One team's season will end there. Can they right the ship rapidly and somehow beat three of their best 4 conference opponents... on the road!?
Penn State moves up with a good win at Indiana. They should emerge into the top 25 just in time for next week's hosting of Ohio State. And there are a LOT of people rooting for them next week. This is now just like the white out game 2 years ago in terms of attention and seriousness. Time to salvage a bit of their season, I hope! 10-2 would look respectable, and Michigan State and Purdue aren't the most difficult finishing stretch.
Texas settles back down to earth a bit here. I thought they could do more with Baylor. Plus I may've been a little too giddy that they blew out Iowa State as predicted last week. Still, it looks they might have stabilized things... and now I'm only calling for about 1 more loss, instead of 2 or 3 as I did at one point. But I wonder if Mac Brown gets fired if Texas loses to Nebraska in Austin!!?!? :-P
Michigan is officially back in the House. Wow, when people snuck in the reality that Michigan could still turn things around and win the Big 10... did you actually take them seriously!?!?!?! Maybe after the Appalachian State game... but how would you do that after Oregon literally toasted them. Yet here they are, they just keep getting past one big test after another. Notre Dame. Penn State. Northwestern. Eastern Michigan. Ok, at that point, we believed they had balanced things out on board, and would settle into a healthy bowl game. But then beating Purdue and then winning at Illinois!?! You might want to take notice Ohio State. Maybe. They haven't totally proven themselves yet. Michigan State and Wisconsin will certainly bring fuller measurement.
UConn rebounds terrifically back into the polls this week after beating Louisville. I can't say I'm surprised, as Louisville is all about emotion this year. They were missing inspiration vs. Syracuse... then came out the next two games depressed. Then it was a big ranked Cincy team and suddenly they were everything. And now, welcome back to the less exuberant Louisteam. I'm not sure where to put Uconn. Remember, they're one simple point from still being undefeated. Hi, meet South Florida. Prove who you are. I'll come back in a week.
Thanks Alabama. You're another up-and-down club... and I thought this could be the week you really lost all heart, after you were knocked back to the bottom dwellers of the SEC West. But I'll give you major props, you responded big time against Tennessee (thanks again!), and now it's time to get a bit excited about LSU! Maybe I was quick to write them off after being lifeless versus Georgia (whom they should have thwomped)... but they are tied for the division lead with LSU next week at home... and then the Iron Bowl to close out. The could still pull BCS out of the letter grabbag!
Wake Forest beats a decent Navy team and keeps rolling. Yes, their record doesn't look spectacular with the loss to Nebraska... but having won 5 straight, I think they are really rumbling along at this point. I thought this season would be a washout, but here they are in the Atlantic race (theoretically). If they lose anywhere coming home, I repeal my impressed nature... especially if that someone in UNC this week.
Rutgers slides back in obviously after beating South Florida, but I'm not sure they are really as good as they smell after this one. Then again, maybe this win will inspire them. And Cincy and Maryland still look like ok losses. This week's game versus WVU probably decides the Big East in my opinion, though. If Rutgers wins they are ready to run the table.
Last but not least, Clemson moves in by the route of domination. Yikes, anyone buying MAC stock had better sell rapidly. Clemson showed me that they are back on the hot side of the road, DISMANTLING the Chippewas. Yes, Central Michigan may be paper pretty, being 4-3 before this week and leading the west, while having beaten no one and having been beaten hard by Kansas and Purdue as well... but I didn't expect that kind of score. What's so bad about close losses to Georgia Tech (admittedly ugly) and Virginia Tech? So they don't like Tech's, that's all! Show me you are interested in this ranking by beating Maryland in a week. Oh, and then make sure and handle Duke. Then you may get 3 top 25 teams to show off against!
How about this year?!? How can you argue for a playoff though? It's bad enough that all these teams that keep losing still can entertain outside shots at the title game! If you instill an 8 or 16 team playoff, it could get putrid. Heck, Hawaii would end up with a shot, and I think is exactly what is a retarded idea. Even if they win out. Especially if they win out. Unless it's by 14 or more a game, with some serious potency.
This will be every year if you want a playoff. Teams will realize that top 2 or top 4 don't matter... that they can play subs. If 1 or 2 losses means nothing. So stick with the BCS. More down the line!
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Yankees and Torre
I believe I've written before here about I was completely behind Torre, and that firing him was the worst move the Yankees could ever make.
But now, there's enough blame to go around. Now, this becomes a commentary on what's wrong with sports.
I am disgusted with the new trend in sports; a player (or now manager) gets a huge contract... performs poorly... then gets a reduced offer the next time $ comes up... and takes it as a slight and gets horribly disgruntled and goes elsewhere, commonly for even or less money.
Can someone explain that to me?
I keep seeing people call it an insult to offer Torre a paycut!
Likewise that it would be incentive-based.
But at this point, I have to side with management to some degree. Torre really didn't fulfill expectations. I am all about the amazing comeback he made this year... it was awesome! But in all honesty, the Yankees have high expectations and rightfully should. With the amount of money they pay their team, they want to win.
I admit, maybe the expectations might still be a little rough... considering it all really comes down to sets of 5 and then 7 games. 2-3 is a workable record for any 5 games in the regular season. It can't be the theme, or a team will only win 65 games... but teams lose series in the regular season. 3-4 is even moreso a fair record to have in any 7 regular season games. But both records are death in the playoffs. Note how this is even an argument against a BCS playoff... the body of work of a long season means more than a few small games. A team could go 152-10 and still lose a playoff series easily. Basically, you lose one home game (if you have advantage... the Yankees didn't), you may well be done. It's amazing how small of things a season of work come down to. Timing is EVERYTHING. Ask the Cardinals last year. If the playoffs were in September, they fail miserably! So there's a lot of luck and stringent timing requirements on whether you'll be a playoff king or dud.
But anyways, the point is the Yankees did really let down the past 4 years. Especially when you start things with the huge embarrassment of the ALCS meltdown vs Boston. That was one of the most exciting and enjoyable things I've ever watched... but it had to be a huge tough to wake up after that one if you were a Yankees fan. That was after coming out as duds against Florida and Anaheim in series the two years prior, and one of the great game 7s vs Arizona the year before that. When you look at their trend, its definitely downward. 2001 - Lose game 7 of the WS. 2002 - Lose 1st round in 4 to Anaheim (eventual champs, all in somewhat close games). 2003 - Lose WS in 6. 2004 - Lose ALCS in 7 after having it nailed down. 2005 - Lose 3-2 in first round. 2006/07 - Lose 3-1 in first round. They've definitely fallen off when it comes to playoff competitiveness... and haven't been a real threat since the falling apart versus Boston.
And so, how is it so unfair to offer a paycut? Especially when you add in incentives that could make the contract basically as lucrative as previous years?
I heard the argument that managers can really only have a negative impact on teams. But with a team like the Yankees, I don't think any passable manager could do awful with the Yankees. When it comes down to it in sports, your job is to perform, to win. To say he shouldn't have been expected to do any better... well, it's got a bit of validity because of what how we run playoffs... but honestly, his performance hasn't been up to what the Yankees expected. Steinbrenner may be tough to please, but I can't fault him for being entirely unreasonable given what he puts into the team.
The point is, teams and players won't take pay cuts anymore even when they deserve them, and that disgusts me. There's no loyalty anymore, it seems.
Now I can't stop without pointing out that the situation and way it happened do not bring the Yankee organization out looking great either. The ultimatum during the playoff series probably was detrimental more than anything. And the way they let him hang looks bad too.
But now we can see the Yankees were working on things. They had to come to internal agreement... then they had to try to work things out with Torre. We're still in the playoffs, it's not like they left it forever. I agree, maybe they could've shown a little more support while trying to work the contract internally.
But the suggestion players would have taken Torre as a weak manager had he accepted a paycut... seems ludicrous. How would they have treated the organization had the Yankees renigged on their position entirely and just thrown money at him? There is already this air about the Yankees that the team is the finish line. A lot of the players in NY have traded loyalty and the energy given by being a fan favorite on a normal club to get more money... and maybe also add to their playoff hopes. This is like retirement! If there is no requirement to perform, what are they doing? I applaud the introduction of performance requirements in the contract. Maybe it's a sign the Yankees finally aren't the evil, obscene empire they once were. They too want success. And maybe they finally aren't willing to buy it outright, but their players have to earn their cash.
Perhaps what killed the Yankees organization is the meager level of vesting. Honestly, to force Torre to make the World Series to come back for another year still seems like the biggest insult. Because they still seem to be saying they aren't supporting him. That was their mistake a couple weeks back, and it was still their mistake. A trip to the playoffs should basically be enough to guarantee another year. Perhaps it was just that the basis was a 1 year offer. I see nothing wrong with offering Torre 2 or 3 years base, and then the chance to earn more. Perhaps the one year deal (plus the high level of success Torre needed to have to earn the extra money) is what killed the deal. As it is, the Yankees come out pretty big losers. Will be interesting to see how the future goes!
But now, there's enough blame to go around. Now, this becomes a commentary on what's wrong with sports.
I am disgusted with the new trend in sports; a player (or now manager) gets a huge contract... performs poorly... then gets a reduced offer the next time $ comes up... and takes it as a slight and gets horribly disgruntled and goes elsewhere, commonly for even or less money.
Can someone explain that to me?
I keep seeing people call it an insult to offer Torre a paycut!
Likewise that it would be incentive-based.
But at this point, I have to side with management to some degree. Torre really didn't fulfill expectations. I am all about the amazing comeback he made this year... it was awesome! But in all honesty, the Yankees have high expectations and rightfully should. With the amount of money they pay their team, they want to win.
I admit, maybe the expectations might still be a little rough... considering it all really comes down to sets of 5 and then 7 games. 2-3 is a workable record for any 5 games in the regular season. It can't be the theme, or a team will only win 65 games... but teams lose series in the regular season. 3-4 is even moreso a fair record to have in any 7 regular season games. But both records are death in the playoffs. Note how this is even an argument against a BCS playoff... the body of work of a long season means more than a few small games. A team could go 152-10 and still lose a playoff series easily. Basically, you lose one home game (if you have advantage... the Yankees didn't), you may well be done. It's amazing how small of things a season of work come down to. Timing is EVERYTHING. Ask the Cardinals last year. If the playoffs were in September, they fail miserably! So there's a lot of luck and stringent timing requirements on whether you'll be a playoff king or dud.
But anyways, the point is the Yankees did really let down the past 4 years. Especially when you start things with the huge embarrassment of the ALCS meltdown vs Boston. That was one of the most exciting and enjoyable things I've ever watched... but it had to be a huge tough to wake up after that one if you were a Yankees fan. That was after coming out as duds against Florida and Anaheim in series the two years prior, and one of the great game 7s vs Arizona the year before that. When you look at their trend, its definitely downward. 2001 - Lose game 7 of the WS. 2002 - Lose 1st round in 4 to Anaheim (eventual champs, all in somewhat close games). 2003 - Lose WS in 6. 2004 - Lose ALCS in 7 after having it nailed down. 2005 - Lose 3-2 in first round. 2006/07 - Lose 3-1 in first round. They've definitely fallen off when it comes to playoff competitiveness... and haven't been a real threat since the falling apart versus Boston.
And so, how is it so unfair to offer a paycut? Especially when you add in incentives that could make the contract basically as lucrative as previous years?
I heard the argument that managers can really only have a negative impact on teams. But with a team like the Yankees, I don't think any passable manager could do awful with the Yankees. When it comes down to it in sports, your job is to perform, to win. To say he shouldn't have been expected to do any better... well, it's got a bit of validity because of what how we run playoffs... but honestly, his performance hasn't been up to what the Yankees expected. Steinbrenner may be tough to please, but I can't fault him for being entirely unreasonable given what he puts into the team.
The point is, teams and players won't take pay cuts anymore even when they deserve them, and that disgusts me. There's no loyalty anymore, it seems.
Now I can't stop without pointing out that the situation and way it happened do not bring the Yankee organization out looking great either. The ultimatum during the playoff series probably was detrimental more than anything. And the way they let him hang looks bad too.
But now we can see the Yankees were working on things. They had to come to internal agreement... then they had to try to work things out with Torre. We're still in the playoffs, it's not like they left it forever. I agree, maybe they could've shown a little more support while trying to work the contract internally.
But the suggestion players would have taken Torre as a weak manager had he accepted a paycut... seems ludicrous. How would they have treated the organization had the Yankees renigged on their position entirely and just thrown money at him? There is already this air about the Yankees that the team is the finish line. A lot of the players in NY have traded loyalty and the energy given by being a fan favorite on a normal club to get more money... and maybe also add to their playoff hopes. This is like retirement! If there is no requirement to perform, what are they doing? I applaud the introduction of performance requirements in the contract. Maybe it's a sign the Yankees finally aren't the evil, obscene empire they once were. They too want success. And maybe they finally aren't willing to buy it outright, but their players have to earn their cash.
Perhaps what killed the Yankees organization is the meager level of vesting. Honestly, to force Torre to make the World Series to come back for another year still seems like the biggest insult. Because they still seem to be saying they aren't supporting him. That was their mistake a couple weeks back, and it was still their mistake. A trip to the playoffs should basically be enough to guarantee another year. Perhaps it was just that the basis was a 1 year offer. I see nothing wrong with offering Torre 2 or 3 years base, and then the chance to earn more. Perhaps the one year deal (plus the high level of success Torre needed to have to earn the extra money) is what killed the deal. As it is, the Yankees come out pretty big losers. Will be interesting to see how the future goes!
Picks (10/18-10/21)
Gotta get my picks in for Thursday, as this is a big game, and one I have a pretty solid feeling on. The rest will be filled in before the weekend (I HOPE).
Also...
- Congrats to the Rockies on making the World Series. Amazing. Still, if it had been on Fox, I would have watched, as it is... haven't seen an inning except for some muted play vs. Philly at a restaurant a couple weeks back...
- Indians look primed too, and if they do, they've overcome the two best teams in the game (in my opinion and in payroll). They have to become the favorites if they do indeed win one of the next 3, especially since they start at home and face a possibly overrested Colorado team.
- An article WILL be coming addressing BCS discussion by Brian Funston and Terry Bowden at Yahoo Sports.
- I like candy. :-)
- HOORAY collegebcs. The greatest thing since sliced bread. You will hear more about this!
Also...
- Congrats to the Rockies on making the World Series. Amazing. Still, if it had been on Fox, I would have watched, as it is... haven't seen an inning except for some muted play vs. Philly at a restaurant a couple weeks back...
- Indians look primed too, and if they do, they've overcome the two best teams in the game (in my opinion and in payroll). They have to become the favorites if they do indeed win one of the next 3, especially since they start at home and face a possibly overrested Colorado team.
- An article WILL be coming addressing BCS discussion by Brian Funston and Terry Bowden at Yahoo Sports.
- I like candy. :-)
- HOORAY collegebcs. The greatest thing since sliced bread. You will hear more about this!
| South Florida @ Rutgers | USF -2.5 | Rutgers 5 | |
| Utah @ TCU | TCU -3.5 | Utah 3 | |
| Louisville @ UConn | Louisville -3 | UConn 1 | |
| Northwestern @ Eastern Michigan | NW -8 | Northwestern 1 |
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Top 25 (Oct 14th)
Another crazy week, and another week to almost start from scratch in the polls. Maybe it'll finally settle down. But I'm enjoying this...
1 Ohio State / win vs Kent State || +1
2 South Florida 6-0/ win vs UCF || +1
3 Boston College 6-0 / win @ ND || +2
4 LSU 6-1 / loss @ Kentucky || -3
5 Oklahoma 6-1 / win vs Missouri || +3
6 South Carolina 6-1 / win @ North Carolina || 0
7 Oregon 5-1 / win vs Washington St || +2
8 West Virginia 5-1 /off || +2
9 Arizona State 7-0 / win vs Washington || +2
10 Kansas 6-0 / win vs Baylor || +7
11 Kentucky 6-1 / win vs LSU || +8
12 Virginia Tech 6-1 / win @ Duke || 0 (No change)
13 California 5-1 / loss vs Oregon State || -9
14 Hawaii 7-0 / win @ San Jose State || +2
15 Florida 4-2 / off || +6
16 Missouri 5-1 / loss @ OU || -9
17 Texas 5-2 / win @ Iowa St || NR (Unranked last week)
18 Kansas State 4-2 / win vs Colorado || NR
19 USC 5-1 / win vs Arizona || +3
20 Virginia 6-1 / win vs UConn || NR
21 Auburn 5-2 / win @ Arkansas || +3
22 Penn State 5-2 / win vs Wisconsin || NR
23 Tennessee 4-2 / win @ Miss St || 0
24 Texas Tech 6-1 / win vs TAMU || NR
25 Wake Forest 4-2 / win vs FSU || NR
Other teams I considered (generally ranked highest to lowest): Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Alabama, East Carolina, BYU, Florida State, Troy
Dropped out entirely: Wisconsin, Wyoming
6 teams come into the poll... that's some pretty big turnover... but I'm happy that I don't think I was as bad as the other polls might be. I'm not even willing to consider Wisconsin at the moment after getting dissected, and I doubt Indiana will show back up near the polls.
Let's go to the team-by-team/breakdown:
Ohio State showed they could do what other's couldn't, and that was win. I'm still not overly optimistic on them, unlike others... but the losing has to stop somewhere on the carousel, right!?! I wouldn't put it past next weekend to be another huge upset weekend, starting right here, with Michigan State going into the Horseshoe and coming back with a win. They do look a little healthy, with only 2 road games left, at Penn State and at Michigan. But all 5 remaining are easily losable games.
By this weekend, I knew one of two things would happen... UCF would give a great game (and probably pull out the victory)... or UCF would be trounced. South Florida look legit yet? Still, can you imagine if the top 2 teams lose in back to back weeks after not doing so even once for 11 years!?! USF is at Rutgers, and I agree with Clark... VERY difficult. I believe Rutgers should be favored... and would pick accordingly. The Big East teams that fell apart (Rutgers, Louisville) look regrouped, while the pretenders have been weeded out (UConn, Cincy), and I think we're ready to go full throttle. BUT, if USF gets through this weekend... I think they look pretty good. Their home games are my biggest alarms, as Cincy and Louisville could still be trouble... but Thursday is their biggest game left.
Boston College wins, and handily, but didn't dazzle me. The top three teams could be out next week, as BC goes to Virginia Tech..... and I just don't see a way BC wins this one. Wouldn't it be shocking to have both #2 and #3 in the country be underdogs? It SHOULD happen (whether or not it does). VTech is rolling. Yes, I'm not 100% sure VTech wins... but still, FSU, @Clemson, @Maryland, or H Miami will end their run. I actually fear the Miami game most for them at this point, but they could go 2-3 or 1-4 the next few weeks easily. Are they for real? About to find out!!!
Well, time to eat crow on LSU. But, we all knew the Kentucky game was the biggest one. More of note, though, is how LSU looked very average. Kentucky didn't come win this game with a perfect performance. Their defense was MIA when it mattered, and their offense looked inconsistent too. They may get Doucet back, but what of it? They deserved this week after the way they pulled miracles out last week... and they just strike me as being a little ground down by the SEC schedule. Still, this loss has to catch your kind eye so long as Kentucky stays high, and if LSU can rebound the rest of the year versus tough but inferior opponents, they are sitting pretty for the title game (at least they should be). I discussed for a while today whether LSU or OU was ranked higher. I just don't see how to put OU higher. Maybe the teams will start looking a bit different, but LSU lost to the better team in a closer game and beat Florida and South Carolina to OU's Texas and Missouri (advantage LSU). Not even close in my book, and I'll be very appalled if LSU falls below OU in the human polls. Then again, USC #10. That's all I need to say. :-(
I put OU at 5, but honestly, they probably should be 6 behind South Carolina.
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South Carolina did EVERYTHING right to stay above/pass OU, winning on the road at an underrated/mercurial NC team, and having Kentucky (an SC victory) and LSU (the SC loss) both come off like champions. I really am quietly believing in them... and if I had to pick a most-likely NC game at this point, THIS would be one of my two teams... as I see them winning their road test at Tennessee next week, then winning what'll probably be the battle for the SEC East at home versus Florida Nov 10th. Clemson is the biggest scare, as anything can happen with a rival. Oklahoma also looks pretty sweet, with tests (including at Texas Tech) remaining, but nothing they SHOULDN'T win. Honestly, I just give OU the nod this week because I feel they are the better of two very equal teams. But, everyone is looking for some controversy to result that hurts the BCS solvency, and this really looks like it could be the one... which of these teams gets the berth? The Conference Title Game weekend could choose the victor of this matchup... but if SC does beat LSU in Atlanta... maybe it's SC-OU for the title!!!
Oregon keeps coasting... and they sure would want a part of the 1 loss controversy, too. But they need to take care of business at home with USC and Arizona State before they should be thinking about that at all. Not the worst schedule in the world, they could make noise. They seem to be a really strong team... but when you look deeper at their schedule... they do look like there might just be a mirage hidden in there. Their only win of any weight is at Michigan... which I agree was a very admirable win... but if Cal falls apart, where does that leave Oregon, who lost to them at home? They need the Pac 10 to stop looking stupid!
West Virginia sat around this week, and I bet they enjoyed the weekend a great deal. Their loss was on the road to a USF team that continues to look better and better... and they beat East Carolina, which is looking like a solid win... and have generally romped. I'm not ready to put them too high yet, as other teams have earned their spots... but if they beat Mississippi State, I may consider moving them past Oregon. I say WV is still my favorite to wind up with the Big East crown... though I could see them losing 2 or 3 to the other powers, as well.
Arizona State is steadily moving up, but could be yet another undefeated team to throw on the pile of failure next week. No real test yet for this team (sorry Colorado), they've gotta prove a lot. They could beat Cal in two weeks (I'm doubting it), and maybe even find a way past Oregon on the road the week after... but their luck will run out... and it could even be vs. UCLA! UCLA could be the ugliest looking two loss team to win a conference in a long time if they could somehow emerge from the debris of the Pac-10... but right now they control their own destiny as much as ASU.
I don't know about you, but I am ready to now declare Kansas for real. Yes, it was Baylor at home. But they showed me they don't allow letdown/overlook games... and all those points they scored the first four weeks against minor conference teams... can translate to the Big 12. They still average over 50 points per game! Yes, they could be shown up big-time next week at Colorado... but if they can win their second big road test of the year... the sky could really end up being the limit. They look for real.
We talk LSU/OU/South Carolina/West Virginia/Oregon in the 1 loss battle... but really, how can Kentucky be left out? Man, they may just sneak through the schedule perfectly to take home some big prizes this year somehow. Florida and Tennessee come to town and Georgia is a road game left too... but if they beat UF, they are really starting to look scary. Their South Carolina loss on the road looks nice too. What happens if Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU somehow all end up with 1 loss (with LSU or SC then losing the SEC title game.) Who gets the best prize!?! Interesting!
VT beat Duke, and I think I am impressed, because Duke is another team you have to watch out for. They know what they have to do this week, with BC coming to town. They SHOULD win. But they've messed up a lot of these type games the past few years. Is it time they take control of the ACC, or time they fold again?
Cal falls to 13.... pretty much at the tail of the 1 loss teams. Oregon State is not good... and suddenly Cal looks pretty beatable. Yes, they beat Tennessee in Berkley, and then Oregon on the road... but don't overlook that Colorado State and Arizona gave them pretty good games. Mark my words: they lose again. USC or Arizona State are the best candidates... but it could be anyone at all, even though the others don't appear that good.
Usually I'm into giving the undefeated teams spots near, if not at, the top. But Hawaii... does anyone really think they are any good!?! They proved my point this week when should have lost to San Jose State. Summary of what I said last week: Hawaii's opponents are 11-35 so far (and that includes 2 D1-AAers, and I believe at least 4 of those 11 wins are 1-AA wins). They should have lost this week. Period. But they escaped again. And now they get a bye week. They have much better opponents to come (16-15 combined records after today)... and can only move up in the computers/human eyes with wins. Mark it down: if they win out (somehow), they play in a BCS game. It's a lock.
Florida also enjoyed the week off, especially given the past two heartbreaks. Still, they have a good shot at the SEC East... as they still control their own destiny in terms of UK/USC..... they just need someone to beat Tennessee! It's a wide-open division! Kentucky is make-or-break on their season... win, and I say they win out (or at most slip up to SC). Lose, and they lose 5ish... including FSU. :-( Maybe 15 is a little generous? I think not... but they need to come out and remind the pollsters why they like them next week.
Missouri was in it the whole way... so how do I drop them below UF!?! Well, the problem was, they were conceivably in the game... but they never looked threatening. And that hurts. There is still plenty of time to turn things around... but Kansas and KState have officially shown its a three team race up north, and they have to travel to both to end the season. We shall see with Mizzou.
I'm feeling okay about Texas again. I'm still believing they lose at least 1 or 2 more this year... but they did what I expected them to do vs Iowa State... and that is wipe the floor with them. Yeah, putting them above USC seems insane... but Kansas State + Oklahoma are still not as bad as Stanford... and today's games seems to show which way these teams are going. Could Baylor pull the upset next week!?! Nah.
The Big 12 train continues. KState has only lost to Kansas and Auburn, don't forget that... and now they've beaten Texas and Colorado. They might be the team to beat in the north. A lot of road games to play still (Ok State, IA State, Nebraska, Fresno State)... but they are the most proven by far, and look like they've got some grit.
Golly, I HATE moving USC up in the standings. Sure, they may be filled with talent. Sure, Booty was hurt. Wah, wah. 7 point win versus Arizona. Down to start the 4th... to Arizona... and almost losing for the second week straight... to two of the worst teams in the Pac 10. Don't forget, they didn't impress against Idaho or Washington either, and are stumbling along right now. I'd think Notre Dame is the perfect thing to right the ship... but, hey, they actually are starting to look presentable.
Virginia bounds into my rankings this week on the heals of a gritty win versus UConn. They still don't have much to dance about in the undeniably solid win category... but I must admit, they've deserved better notice from me. @Maryland next week is a battle of two teams I've been giving no love to... so one will get some in 7 days.
Sorry, I really haven't thought much of Arkansas all year... and so Auburn doesn't get much benefit for beating them on the road. Their meat still holds, and their resume is near perfect for a 2 loss team as far as I'm concerned (beat Florida, lost to underrated Miss State and South Florida.) @LSU. Oh hi!
Penn State gets back in the rankings... and who wouldn't after spanking up on Wisconsin. Yes, Wisconsin is reeling... but so was PSU not so long ago. At Michigan and at Illinois still look pretty fair. What I want to see is another epic Ohio State battle....... don't forget the very memorable white-out game two years ago in State College as OSU came to town... it really showed Penn State was back on the scene.
Meet Tennessee, the team that can win or lose any given weak. They played gritty in today's 4th quarter... but they need to show me more. Bring on Bama, South Carolina back-to-back.
Texas Tech moves in at 24... but I don't really think they are that good. Beating a scandal-distracted TAMU team at home gains them zero support, and while UTEP and Ok State look decent... Texas and Oklahoma will hurt.
And Wake Forest barely slides in at 25 after handling FSU. Nothing especially ground moving with them so far... but they turned their season around after everyone (yes, definitely myself included) wrote them off! 4 road games, at Navy, Virginia, Clemson, and Vandy, who are a combined 17-8, remain! Whoopsy.
That's all, have a good weekend!
1 Ohio State / win vs Kent State || +1
2 South Florida 6-0/ win vs UCF || +1
3 Boston College 6-0 / win @ ND || +2
4 LSU 6-1 / loss @ Kentucky || -3
5 Oklahoma 6-1 / win vs Missouri || +3
6 South Carolina 6-1 / win @ North Carolina || 0
7 Oregon 5-1 / win vs Washington St || +2
8 West Virginia 5-1 /off || +2
9 Arizona State 7-0 / win vs Washington || +2
10 Kansas 6-0 / win vs Baylor || +7
11 Kentucky 6-1 / win vs LSU || +8
12 Virginia Tech 6-1 / win @ Duke || 0 (No change)
13 California 5-1 / loss vs Oregon State || -9
14 Hawaii 7-0 / win @ San Jose State || +2
15 Florida 4-2 / off || +6
16 Missouri 5-1 / loss @ OU || -9
17 Texas 5-2 / win @ Iowa St || NR (Unranked last week)
18 Kansas State 4-2 / win vs Colorado || NR
19 USC 5-1 / win vs Arizona || +3
20 Virginia 6-1 / win vs UConn || NR
21 Auburn 5-2 / win @ Arkansas || +3
22 Penn State 5-2 / win vs Wisconsin || NR
23 Tennessee 4-2 / win @ Miss St || 0
24 Texas Tech 6-1 / win vs TAMU || NR
25 Wake Forest 4-2 / win vs FSU || NR
Other teams I considered (generally ranked highest to lowest): Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Alabama, East Carolina, BYU, Florida State, Troy
Dropped out entirely: Wisconsin, Wyoming
6 teams come into the poll... that's some pretty big turnover... but I'm happy that I don't think I was as bad as the other polls might be. I'm not even willing to consider Wisconsin at the moment after getting dissected, and I doubt Indiana will show back up near the polls.
Let's go to the team-by-team/breakdown:
Ohio State showed they could do what other's couldn't, and that was win. I'm still not overly optimistic on them, unlike others... but the losing has to stop somewhere on the carousel, right!?! I wouldn't put it past next weekend to be another huge upset weekend, starting right here, with Michigan State going into the Horseshoe and coming back with a win. They do look a little healthy, with only 2 road games left, at Penn State and at Michigan. But all 5 remaining are easily losable games.
By this weekend, I knew one of two things would happen... UCF would give a great game (and probably pull out the victory)... or UCF would be trounced. South Florida look legit yet? Still, can you imagine if the top 2 teams lose in back to back weeks after not doing so even once for 11 years!?! USF is at Rutgers, and I agree with Clark... VERY difficult. I believe Rutgers should be favored... and would pick accordingly. The Big East teams that fell apart (Rutgers, Louisville) look regrouped, while the pretenders have been weeded out (UConn, Cincy), and I think we're ready to go full throttle. BUT, if USF gets through this weekend... I think they look pretty good. Their home games are my biggest alarms, as Cincy and Louisville could still be trouble... but Thursday is their biggest game left.
Boston College wins, and handily, but didn't dazzle me. The top three teams could be out next week, as BC goes to Virginia Tech..... and I just don't see a way BC wins this one. Wouldn't it be shocking to have both #2 and #3 in the country be underdogs? It SHOULD happen (whether or not it does). VTech is rolling. Yes, I'm not 100% sure VTech wins... but still, FSU, @Clemson, @Maryland, or H Miami will end their run. I actually fear the Miami game most for them at this point, but they could go 2-3 or 1-4 the next few weeks easily. Are they for real? About to find out!!!
Well, time to eat crow on LSU. But, we all knew the Kentucky game was the biggest one. More of note, though, is how LSU looked very average. Kentucky didn't come win this game with a perfect performance. Their defense was MIA when it mattered, and their offense looked inconsistent too. They may get Doucet back, but what of it? They deserved this week after the way they pulled miracles out last week... and they just strike me as being a little ground down by the SEC schedule. Still, this loss has to catch your kind eye so long as Kentucky stays high, and if LSU can rebound the rest of the year versus tough but inferior opponents, they are sitting pretty for the title game (at least they should be). I discussed for a while today whether LSU or OU was ranked higher. I just don't see how to put OU higher. Maybe the teams will start looking a bit different, but LSU lost to the better team in a closer game and beat Florida and South Carolina to OU's Texas and Missouri (advantage LSU). Not even close in my book, and I'll be very appalled if LSU falls below OU in the human polls. Then again, USC #10. That's all I need to say. :-(
I put OU at 5, but honestly, they probably should be 6 behind South Carolina.
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South Carolina did EVERYTHING right to stay above/pass OU, winning on the road at an underrated/mercurial NC team, and having Kentucky (an SC victory) and LSU (the SC loss) both come off like champions. I really am quietly believing in them... and if I had to pick a most-likely NC game at this point, THIS would be one of my two teams... as I see them winning their road test at Tennessee next week, then winning what'll probably be the battle for the SEC East at home versus Florida Nov 10th. Clemson is the biggest scare, as anything can happen with a rival. Oklahoma also looks pretty sweet, with tests (including at Texas Tech) remaining, but nothing they SHOULDN'T win. Honestly, I just give OU the nod this week because I feel they are the better of two very equal teams. But, everyone is looking for some controversy to result that hurts the BCS solvency, and this really looks like it could be the one... which of these teams gets the berth? The Conference Title Game weekend could choose the victor of this matchup... but if SC does beat LSU in Atlanta... maybe it's SC-OU for the title!!!
Oregon keeps coasting... and they sure would want a part of the 1 loss controversy, too. But they need to take care of business at home with USC and Arizona State before they should be thinking about that at all. Not the worst schedule in the world, they could make noise. They seem to be a really strong team... but when you look deeper at their schedule... they do look like there might just be a mirage hidden in there. Their only win of any weight is at Michigan... which I agree was a very admirable win... but if Cal falls apart, where does that leave Oregon, who lost to them at home? They need the Pac 10 to stop looking stupid!
West Virginia sat around this week, and I bet they enjoyed the weekend a great deal. Their loss was on the road to a USF team that continues to look better and better... and they beat East Carolina, which is looking like a solid win... and have generally romped. I'm not ready to put them too high yet, as other teams have earned their spots... but if they beat Mississippi State, I may consider moving them past Oregon. I say WV is still my favorite to wind up with the Big East crown... though I could see them losing 2 or 3 to the other powers, as well.
Arizona State is steadily moving up, but could be yet another undefeated team to throw on the pile of failure next week. No real test yet for this team (sorry Colorado), they've gotta prove a lot. They could beat Cal in two weeks (I'm doubting it), and maybe even find a way past Oregon on the road the week after... but their luck will run out... and it could even be vs. UCLA! UCLA could be the ugliest looking two loss team to win a conference in a long time if they could somehow emerge from the debris of the Pac-10... but right now they control their own destiny as much as ASU.
I don't know about you, but I am ready to now declare Kansas for real. Yes, it was Baylor at home. But they showed me they don't allow letdown/overlook games... and all those points they scored the first four weeks against minor conference teams... can translate to the Big 12. They still average over 50 points per game! Yes, they could be shown up big-time next week at Colorado... but if they can win their second big road test of the year... the sky could really end up being the limit. They look for real.
We talk LSU/OU/South Carolina/West Virginia/Oregon in the 1 loss battle... but really, how can Kentucky be left out? Man, they may just sneak through the schedule perfectly to take home some big prizes this year somehow. Florida and Tennessee come to town and Georgia is a road game left too... but if they beat UF, they are really starting to look scary. Their South Carolina loss on the road looks nice too. What happens if Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU somehow all end up with 1 loss (with LSU or SC then losing the SEC title game.) Who gets the best prize!?! Interesting!
VT beat Duke, and I think I am impressed, because Duke is another team you have to watch out for. They know what they have to do this week, with BC coming to town. They SHOULD win. But they've messed up a lot of these type games the past few years. Is it time they take control of the ACC, or time they fold again?
Cal falls to 13.... pretty much at the tail of the 1 loss teams. Oregon State is not good... and suddenly Cal looks pretty beatable. Yes, they beat Tennessee in Berkley, and then Oregon on the road... but don't overlook that Colorado State and Arizona gave them pretty good games. Mark my words: they lose again. USC or Arizona State are the best candidates... but it could be anyone at all, even though the others don't appear that good.
Usually I'm into giving the undefeated teams spots near, if not at, the top. But Hawaii... does anyone really think they are any good!?! They proved my point this week when should have lost to San Jose State. Summary of what I said last week: Hawaii's opponents are 11-35 so far (and that includes 2 D1-AAers, and I believe at least 4 of those 11 wins are 1-AA wins). They should have lost this week. Period. But they escaped again. And now they get a bye week. They have much better opponents to come (16-15 combined records after today)... and can only move up in the computers/human eyes with wins. Mark it down: if they win out (somehow), they play in a BCS game. It's a lock.
Florida also enjoyed the week off, especially given the past two heartbreaks. Still, they have a good shot at the SEC East... as they still control their own destiny in terms of UK/USC..... they just need someone to beat Tennessee! It's a wide-open division! Kentucky is make-or-break on their season... win, and I say they win out (or at most slip up to SC). Lose, and they lose 5ish... including FSU. :-( Maybe 15 is a little generous? I think not... but they need to come out and remind the pollsters why they like them next week.
Missouri was in it the whole way... so how do I drop them below UF!?! Well, the problem was, they were conceivably in the game... but they never looked threatening. And that hurts. There is still plenty of time to turn things around... but Kansas and KState have officially shown its a three team race up north, and they have to travel to both to end the season. We shall see with Mizzou.
I'm feeling okay about Texas again. I'm still believing they lose at least 1 or 2 more this year... but they did what I expected them to do vs Iowa State... and that is wipe the floor with them. Yeah, putting them above USC seems insane... but Kansas State + Oklahoma are still not as bad as Stanford... and today's games seems to show which way these teams are going. Could Baylor pull the upset next week!?! Nah.
The Big 12 train continues. KState has only lost to Kansas and Auburn, don't forget that... and now they've beaten Texas and Colorado. They might be the team to beat in the north. A lot of road games to play still (Ok State, IA State, Nebraska, Fresno State)... but they are the most proven by far, and look like they've got some grit.
Golly, I HATE moving USC up in the standings. Sure, they may be filled with talent. Sure, Booty was hurt. Wah, wah. 7 point win versus Arizona. Down to start the 4th... to Arizona... and almost losing for the second week straight... to two of the worst teams in the Pac 10. Don't forget, they didn't impress against Idaho or Washington either, and are stumbling along right now. I'd think Notre Dame is the perfect thing to right the ship... but, hey, they actually are starting to look presentable.
Virginia bounds into my rankings this week on the heals of a gritty win versus UConn. They still don't have much to dance about in the undeniably solid win category... but I must admit, they've deserved better notice from me. @Maryland next week is a battle of two teams I've been giving no love to... so one will get some in 7 days.
Sorry, I really haven't thought much of Arkansas all year... and so Auburn doesn't get much benefit for beating them on the road. Their meat still holds, and their resume is near perfect for a 2 loss team as far as I'm concerned (beat Florida, lost to underrated Miss State and South Florida.) @LSU. Oh hi!
Penn State gets back in the rankings... and who wouldn't after spanking up on Wisconsin. Yes, Wisconsin is reeling... but so was PSU not so long ago. At Michigan and at Illinois still look pretty fair. What I want to see is another epic Ohio State battle....... don't forget the very memorable white-out game two years ago in State College as OSU came to town... it really showed Penn State was back on the scene.
Meet Tennessee, the team that can win or lose any given weak. They played gritty in today's 4th quarter... but they need to show me more. Bring on Bama, South Carolina back-to-back.
Texas Tech moves in at 24... but I don't really think they are that good. Beating a scandal-distracted TAMU team at home gains them zero support, and while UTEP and Ok State look decent... Texas and Oklahoma will hurt.
And Wake Forest barely slides in at 25 after handling FSU. Nothing especially ground moving with them so far... but they turned their season around after everyone (yes, definitely myself included) wrote them off! 4 road games, at Navy, Virginia, Clemson, and Vandy, who are a combined 17-8, remain! Whoopsy.
That's all, have a good weekend!
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Predictions for 10/13 - 10/14
Been a bit hesitant to post picks for this weekend... last weekend was the worst weekend I've had in a while.
For a long time, I've Yahoo college pickem versus the spread, and done quite well, making into the top 500 a few different years. I was ranked 2577th this season, until last week's 5-10 (really 4-10, when removing the OFF game) debacle.
Likewise I've been toying with a system for picking versus the spread that really highlights the more confident picks... and hopefully would even show that I could be a successful sports wagerer... though, I have long since decided that stewardship with my money is the most important and Godly thing I need to be doing... plus, if I'm winning at gambling... there must be someone losing (money rarely comes from nowhere!).
Anyways, that aside, the system I've tried out the past couple weeks involves picking every game versus the spread, and placing 1, 3, 5, or 7 confidence points on each game.
And so follows my picks for this week...
(Line given is the Yahoo Sport's opening line. I don't look at movement.)
Games I'd most want to watch this week if I could (in order of interest):
Missouri @ Oklahoma
LSU @ Kentucky
UCF @ USF
South Carolina @ North Carolina
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Purdue @ Michigan
Alabama @ Mississippi
Louisville @ Cincy
VTech @ Duke
Baylor @ Kansas
UConn @ Virginia
Illinois @ Iowa
Boston College @ Notre Dame
And that'll be the weekend!
Hope it's a good one for all who read this,
God bless,
Shane
Update: Well, this has to be my best week of the year and maybe in a long time. On Yahoo and such I turned out only decent (11-9). But what a week in these overall picks, and what an exciting week overall! Let's recap:
1 point picks: 16-10-1
3 point picks: 7-9-1
5 point picks: 2-1
7 point picks: 2-1
Total net: +12
Going back to the *UGLY* past (unposted online) weeks:
Two weeks back:
1 point picks: 15-16
3 point picks: 2-13
5 point picks: 3-1-1
7 point picks: 1-1
Net: -24
Last week:
1 point picks: 14-16
3 point picks: 5-7
5 point picks: 0-5
7 point picks: 0-1
Net: -40
I was honest when I said they were awful!
So overall, on the season:
1 point: 45-42-1
3 point: 14-29-1
5 point: 5-7-1
7 point: 3-3
Total points: 133-175, which would make me 43%. A long ways to go :-)
Otherwise, though, an exciting day, despite the UCF letdown. OU won. Top teams lost, helping OU and even UF (maybe a bit)... and a lot of what I said in last week's rankings showed teeth (with a few major exceptions (LSU has clear sailing, ey???).
For a long time, I've Yahoo college pickem versus the spread, and done quite well, making into the top 500 a few different years. I was ranked 2577th this season, until last week's 5-10 (really 4-10, when removing the OFF game) debacle.
Likewise I've been toying with a system for picking versus the spread that really highlights the more confident picks... and hopefully would even show that I could be a successful sports wagerer... though, I have long since decided that stewardship with my money is the most important and Godly thing I need to be doing... plus, if I'm winning at gambling... there must be someone losing (money rarely comes from nowhere!).
Anyways, that aside, the system I've tried out the past couple weeks involves picking every game versus the spread, and placing 1, 3, 5, or 7 confidence points on each game.
And so follows my picks for this week...
(Line given is the Yahoo Sport's opening line. I don't look at movement.)
| Temple @ Akron | Temple -10.5 | Akron 3 | Correct |
| Alabama @ Mississippi | Bama -6 | Mississippi 1 | Correct |
| Washington @ Arizona State | Zona St -11 | ASU 5 | Correct |
| Auburn @ Arkansas | Arkansas -2.5 | Auburn 3 | Correct |
| ULL @ Arkansas St | Arkansas State -9 | ULL 3 | |
| Boston College @ Notre Dame | BC -14 | BC 7 | |
| BYU @ UNLV | BYU -10.5 | BYU 3 | |
| Toledo @ Buffalo | Buffalo -3 | Buffalo 1 | Correct |
| Oregon State @ Cal | California -14 | OSU 1 | Correct |
| Army @ Central Michigan | Central Michigan -11 | Central Michigan 1 | Correct |
| Louisville @ Cincinnati | Cincy -10 | Louisville 3 | Correct |
| Air Force @ Colorado State | Colorado State -3.5 | CSU 1 | |
| Fresno State @ Idaho | Fresno -11 | Fresno 1 | Correct |
| Georgia @ Vandy | Georgia -7 | Georgia 5 | |
| Rice @ Houston | Houston -20 | Houston 1 | |
| Illinois @ Iowa | Illinois -3 | Iowa 1 | Correct |
| Baylor @ Kansas | Kansas -24 | Baylor 1 | |
| Colorado @ Kansas State | KState -6 | KSt 1 | Correct |
| LSU @ Kentucky | LSU -9 | LSU 3 | |
| NMSt @ La Tech | LaTech -7.5 | NMSt 1 | Correct |
| ULM @ North Texas | ULM -7 | NT 1 | Correct |
| Mid Ten @ Memphis | Memphis -4 | Mid Ten 1 | Correct |
| Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) | Miami FL -3 | Miami 3 | |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | Miami OH -2.5 | BG 1 | |
| Purdue @ Michigan | Michigan -5 | Michigan 1 | Correct |
| Indiana @ Michigan State | Michigan State -5.5 | Michigan State 5 | Correct |
| Oklahoma State @ Nebraska | Nebraska -4 | OSU 1 | Correct |
| Minnesota @ Northwestern | NW -7 | NW 3 | |
| Eastern Michigan @ Ohio | Ohio -5 | EMU 1 | |
| Kent State @ Ohio State | Ohio State -30.5 | OSU 1 | Correct |
| Missouri @ Oklahoma | OU -9 | Missouri 3 | |
| Washington State @ Oregon | Oregon -17.5 | Oregon 3 | Correct |
| Wisconsin @ Penn State | Penn State -6 | Wisconsin 1 | |
| Rutgers @ Syracuse | Rutgers -16.5 | Rutgers 7 | Correct |
| South Carolina @ North Carolina | USC -6 | South Carolina 1 | PUSH |
| UCF @ USF | USF -11 | South Florida 1 | Correct |
| Southern Methodist @ Southern Miss | USM (the Mississippi version) -9 | Southern Meth 1 | |
| TCU @ Stanford | TCU -4 | TCU 3 | |
| Tennessee @ Mississippi St | UT -7.5 | Miss St 3 | |
| Texas @ Iowa State | Texas -16 | Texas 7 | Correct |
| TAMU @ Texas Tech | TT -8 | Texas Tech 1 | Correct |
| Marshall @ Tulsa | Tulsa -13.5 | Marshall 1 | Correct |
| Tulane @ UAB | UAB -3.5 | UAB 3 | Correct |
| Arizona @ USC | USC -22 | USC 3 | |
| Eastern Carolina @ UTEP | UTEP -2 | ECU 3 | Correct |
| San Diego State @ Utah | Utah -14 | SDST 1 | |
| UConn @ Virginia | UVA -3.5 | UConn 3 | Correct |
| VTech @ Duke | VTech -13 | Duke 1 | |
| Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois | WM -4 | Western Michigan 3 | PUSH |
| New Mexico @ Wyoming | Wyoming -3.5 | New Mexico 1 | Correct |
Games I'd most want to watch this week if I could (in order of interest):
Missouri @ Oklahoma
LSU @ Kentucky
UCF @ USF
South Carolina @ North Carolina
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Purdue @ Michigan
Alabama @ Mississippi
Louisville @ Cincy
VTech @ Duke
Baylor @ Kansas
UConn @ Virginia
Illinois @ Iowa
Boston College @ Notre Dame
And that'll be the weekend!
Hope it's a good one for all who read this,
God bless,
Shane
Update: Well, this has to be my best week of the year and maybe in a long time. On Yahoo and such I turned out only decent (11-9). But what a week in these overall picks, and what an exciting week overall! Let's recap:
1 point picks: 16-10-1
3 point picks: 7-9-1
5 point picks: 2-1
7 point picks: 2-1
Total net: +12
Going back to the *UGLY* past (unposted online) weeks:
Two weeks back:
1 point picks: 15-16
3 point picks: 2-13
5 point picks: 3-1-1
7 point picks: 1-1
Net: -24
Last week:
1 point picks: 14-16
3 point picks: 5-7
5 point picks: 0-5
7 point picks: 0-1
Net: -40
I was honest when I said they were awful!
So overall, on the season:
1 point: 45-42-1
3 point: 14-29-1
5 point: 5-7-1
7 point: 3-3
Total points: 133-175, which would make me 43%. A long ways to go :-)
Otherwise, though, an exciting day, despite the UCF letdown. OU won. Top teams lost, helping OU and even UF (maybe a bit)... and a lot of what I said in last week's rankings showed teeth (with a few major exceptions (LSU has clear sailing, ey???).
Monday, October 8, 2007
MLB Playoffs
Well, with that final out a few minutes ago by Jorge Posada, the first round is over.
And I've gotta say, I've lost a lot of interest.
The two stories that blew me away, the Cubs and the Yankees skidded to a meaningless close. They went on giant runs over the second half of the season... only to play one extra of pathetic baseball.
The Yankees in particular were pretty disappointing. You had to figure this would finally be the year they'd bring it together in the playoffs... after all the adversity.
And yet, they bungled it, uglyly. It wasn't just that ARod stunk AGAIN. It was that the entire team stunk AGAIN. I'm not sure you can fire Torre for that... if they aren't going to come to play, what are you going to do? Sometimes you just don't have it at the right time. Considering how short the playoffs are comparatively (win/lose 3 games versus the 162 game season), how do you hold it entirely on him for how it went. Steinbrenner won't get better, that's for sure. You'd think Pinella would fit there... except he just did the same thing. LaRussa and Cox blew their playoff runs, too. Who do you expect to never screw it up??? But something tells me Torre may be done. Doesn't matter to me, I'm by no means really a fan of the Yankees... but I think this'll prove to be another case of an owner being impetuous and silly and hurting a team (read Dan Snyder for the past 10 years (Redskins), and that dumb owner of the Chargers).
And with it, it seems the competition has gone. I really don't care who wins the ALCS... I'm just not into the Indians...... I am rooting for the Red Sox, but really aren't that interested. I hope/believe it'll be a closer series, even as I think the Red Sox are the better team... but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians squeak it out, either.
Then the NLCS. The Diamondbacks are another team that haven't inspired me at all. Beyond Brandon Webb, and maybe Valverde, I just find them unexciting. And they won a title (with much more exciting players) a few years back.
And that leaves the Rockies. I'm definitely rooting for them..... and their run has been AMAZING! I can now fully focus on their run, after the Yankee/Cub pooftering.
But then, come to hear that the NLCS won't be on Fox! I don't have cable, never really have (besides when a roommate had it)... and I'm sad at how most playoff broadcasts more and more move to cable. NHL first. Then NBA recently. And now MLB even!?! I'm fine with the first rounds being predominantly on another network. But this is sad. I'll stop following the sports entirely if I can't watch when it matters. Playoff baseball is my favorite time in the season. Same with hockey and NBA. If I can't watch, I'll just stop paying attention.
Maybe.
But the lack of competitiveness in the first round series has seemed to be contageous to me. I'm not all that enthralled anymore. Maybe the games will come on, and they'll be really good, and I'll change my mind. We'll see! I hope so!
Otherwise, not much to talk about tonight.
Have a good one!
And I've gotta say, I've lost a lot of interest.
The two stories that blew me away, the Cubs and the Yankees skidded to a meaningless close. They went on giant runs over the second half of the season... only to play one extra of pathetic baseball.
The Yankees in particular were pretty disappointing. You had to figure this would finally be the year they'd bring it together in the playoffs... after all the adversity.
And yet, they bungled it, uglyly. It wasn't just that ARod stunk AGAIN. It was that the entire team stunk AGAIN. I'm not sure you can fire Torre for that... if they aren't going to come to play, what are you going to do? Sometimes you just don't have it at the right time. Considering how short the playoffs are comparatively (win/lose 3 games versus the 162 game season), how do you hold it entirely on him for how it went. Steinbrenner won't get better, that's for sure. You'd think Pinella would fit there... except he just did the same thing. LaRussa and Cox blew their playoff runs, too. Who do you expect to never screw it up??? But something tells me Torre may be done. Doesn't matter to me, I'm by no means really a fan of the Yankees... but I think this'll prove to be another case of an owner being impetuous and silly and hurting a team (read Dan Snyder for the past 10 years (Redskins), and that dumb owner of the Chargers).
And with it, it seems the competition has gone. I really don't care who wins the ALCS... I'm just not into the Indians...... I am rooting for the Red Sox, but really aren't that interested. I hope/believe it'll be a closer series, even as I think the Red Sox are the better team... but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians squeak it out, either.
Then the NLCS. The Diamondbacks are another team that haven't inspired me at all. Beyond Brandon Webb, and maybe Valverde, I just find them unexciting. And they won a title (with much more exciting players) a few years back.
And that leaves the Rockies. I'm definitely rooting for them..... and their run has been AMAZING! I can now fully focus on their run, after the Yankee/Cub pooftering.
But then, come to hear that the NLCS won't be on Fox! I don't have cable, never really have (besides when a roommate had it)... and I'm sad at how most playoff broadcasts more and more move to cable. NHL first. Then NBA recently. And now MLB even!?! I'm fine with the first rounds being predominantly on another network. But this is sad. I'll stop following the sports entirely if I can't watch when it matters. Playoff baseball is my favorite time in the season. Same with hockey and NBA. If I can't watch, I'll just stop paying attention.
Maybe.
But the lack of competitiveness in the first round series has seemed to be contageous to me. I'm not all that enthralled anymore. Maybe the games will come on, and they'll be really good, and I'll change my mind. We'll see! I hope so!
Otherwise, not much to talk about tonight.
Have a good one!
Sunday, October 7, 2007
More UCF
At the request of one reader, I need to say more about UCF (which I do!).
UCF's play yesterday was a real letdown on a season that, up to this point, was very solid. Leading 28-17 at halftime, they gave up 28 points in the third quarter and went on to lose 52-38.
Not a horrible loss, particularly on the road to an East Carolina team that beat North Carolina and gave Virginia Tech fits when they were expected to be blown out by a VTech team that was very emotional for their home opener after the tragedy last spring.
But it was a letdown none-the-less.
It showed UCF was just a better version of typical UCF... of most any typical mid-conference team; they are a team prone to ups and downs.
I was ready to crown them king of the mid-majors after they almost beat Texas. Considering how bad they played in that game, it was shocking they came so close. And, yes, Texas has been shown what many of us have suspected for a while (pretty bad... I could see them losing 4 or 5 games now this season). But that didn't discount that UCF played an undefeated national powerhouse and almost pulled it out.
The buzz in Orlando is big. The new stadium is BEAUTIFUL! And the team really came out of nowhere to surprise me this year.
This link shows that most people had UCF about where I did to start the year... middle of the road... and probably pretty unlikely to make a bowl.
I shouldn't have been shocked. Apparently most people had UCF finishing last in Conference USA in 2005... you know, the year where they fell one play short of the conference title and a blown extra point from continuing their bowl game.
And this year, they looked ready to break out in an unbelievable way. They beat a big conference team, NC State, on the road, then blew out Memphis and La-La after falling short of Texas. None of those wins were outstanding, as the opponents weren't that great... but I was getting really hyped. They were getting votes in the polls... and might have moved into the Top 25 (at least in my poll) had they beat ECU convincingly.
As it is they blew it in that third quarter. As I said, they led 28-17 at halftime. They gave up a huge return on the opening kickoff, but responding with a field goal, a stop, and a blocked punt. It looked like the game was about to be put out of reach by UCF, but that's where the game turned. An 83 yard interception return set up East Carolina for a td that turned the tide of the game. The next 4 drives had UCF turnovers. And from there it was all but over.
UCF looked ready to do something amazing. I was championing how UCF could still make it in as the midmajor BCS team... and had UCF somehow managed to beat Texas... they could maybe even have upset the world and found their way into the National Championship Game. Think about it. If they had run the table, they would have beaten top 10 teams Texas and South Florida (on the road), and also beaten major conference NC State on the road. They would've have run through a conference that includes some pretty decent teams like Tulsa, ECar, and UTEP. And Kevin Smith might well have won the Heisman (he is the nation's leading rusher, and singlehandedly kept them in it against Texas).
But, alas, all that is gone now. Kyle Israel has put up some pretty decent yardage numbers... but poorly timed picks have proved costly against both Texas and Eastern Car. I was really considering getting tickets to Raymond James Stadium next week and watching UCF/USF in person. This is the first time UCF has been a real football school. When Daunte Culpepper was here near the end of last millennium, it was the first time UCF was really an interesting football team (well, they were quite exciting to follow when competing at the highest level in D-1AA, but that's beside the point)...... but now they are finally a football school. In a new way. They have a stadium on campus, gameday tailgating, and bring a buzz... at least to that side of town... each home Saturday. I'm still excited about UCF's chances to beat USF... and maybe get a ranking by doing so... but it's not the same now. They caught the nation's attention against Texas, and kept coming up in conversations about who the second best Florida team was (as a footnote to USF). They were being overlooked, and yet drawing huge attention. And they were ready to take the next step.
They are a team that probably feeds off the home crowd too much, and definitely makes too many mistakes. They still have big goals they can attain - win their division and conference (though they now need ECU to lose to someone). But a world-shattering season in Orlando has now been demoted to just a stellar year. But don't count them out South Florida, or you'll be the ones licking your wounds come this time next week!
UCF's play yesterday was a real letdown on a season that, up to this point, was very solid. Leading 28-17 at halftime, they gave up 28 points in the third quarter and went on to lose 52-38.
Not a horrible loss, particularly on the road to an East Carolina team that beat North Carolina and gave Virginia Tech fits when they were expected to be blown out by a VTech team that was very emotional for their home opener after the tragedy last spring.
But it was a letdown none-the-less.
It showed UCF was just a better version of typical UCF... of most any typical mid-conference team; they are a team prone to ups and downs.
I was ready to crown them king of the mid-majors after they almost beat Texas. Considering how bad they played in that game, it was shocking they came so close. And, yes, Texas has been shown what many of us have suspected for a while (pretty bad... I could see them losing 4 or 5 games now this season). But that didn't discount that UCF played an undefeated national powerhouse and almost pulled it out.
The buzz in Orlando is big. The new stadium is BEAUTIFUL! And the team really came out of nowhere to surprise me this year.
This link shows that most people had UCF about where I did to start the year... middle of the road... and probably pretty unlikely to make a bowl.
I shouldn't have been shocked. Apparently most people had UCF finishing last in Conference USA in 2005... you know, the year where they fell one play short of the conference title and a blown extra point from continuing their bowl game.
And this year, they looked ready to break out in an unbelievable way. They beat a big conference team, NC State, on the road, then blew out Memphis and La-La after falling short of Texas. None of those wins were outstanding, as the opponents weren't that great... but I was getting really hyped. They were getting votes in the polls... and might have moved into the Top 25 (at least in my poll) had they beat ECU convincingly.
As it is they blew it in that third quarter. As I said, they led 28-17 at halftime. They gave up a huge return on the opening kickoff, but responding with a field goal, a stop, and a blocked punt. It looked like the game was about to be put out of reach by UCF, but that's where the game turned. An 83 yard interception return set up East Carolina for a td that turned the tide of the game. The next 4 drives had UCF turnovers. And from there it was all but over.
UCF looked ready to do something amazing. I was championing how UCF could still make it in as the midmajor BCS team... and had UCF somehow managed to beat Texas... they could maybe even have upset the world and found their way into the National Championship Game. Think about it. If they had run the table, they would have beaten top 10 teams Texas and South Florida (on the road), and also beaten major conference NC State on the road. They would've have run through a conference that includes some pretty decent teams like Tulsa, ECar, and UTEP. And Kevin Smith might well have won the Heisman (he is the nation's leading rusher, and singlehandedly kept them in it against Texas).
But, alas, all that is gone now. Kyle Israel has put up some pretty decent yardage numbers... but poorly timed picks have proved costly against both Texas and Eastern Car. I was really considering getting tickets to Raymond James Stadium next week and watching UCF/USF in person. This is the first time UCF has been a real football school. When Daunte Culpepper was here near the end of last millennium, it was the first time UCF was really an interesting football team (well, they were quite exciting to follow when competing at the highest level in D-1AA, but that's beside the point)...... but now they are finally a football school. In a new way. They have a stadium on campus, gameday tailgating, and bring a buzz... at least to that side of town... each home Saturday. I'm still excited about UCF's chances to beat USF... and maybe get a ranking by doing so... but it's not the same now. They caught the nation's attention against Texas, and kept coming up in conversations about who the second best Florida team was (as a footnote to USF). They were being overlooked, and yet drawing huge attention. And they were ready to take the next step.
They are a team that probably feeds off the home crowd too much, and definitely makes too many mistakes. They still have big goals they can attain - win their division and conference (though they now need ECU to lose to someone). But a world-shattering season in Orlando has now been demoted to just a stellar year. But don't count them out South Florida, or you'll be the ones licking your wounds come this time next week!
USC
And USC comes in at 10 in the AP and 7th in the Coaches/AP. What in the world are they thinking...
How can most pollsters put them above teams like West Virginia, who lost a tight one on the road at USF? I guess the Big East still has no respect. Above Oregon, who lost a tight one to Cal? Above Virginia Tech... who was blown out... but blown out by the best team in the nation, rather than some winless bottomdweller (and, oh yeah, on the road). Heck, honestly, how are they above Florida State even!?! FSU lost to a decent Clemson team late on the road.
Nebraska has no quality wins (their Nebraska win now looks like total garbage). Idaho and Washington State have a combined 3 wins (over San Diego State, Idaho, and a DI-AA team). Their only decent win is Washington... and they almost choked that one away too.
Undefeated Missouri/Hawaii/Kansas/Cincy/Arizona State come in lower?!?! Other teams with one loss, to top teams, also come in lower (Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin)?
I am literally sick because of the polls. USC has a legitimate shot at the National Championship game... not just an outside shot... a good shot. They'd apparently get in over an undefeated Missouri. ...
BTW, I also see reason to gripe about Texas, Purdue, and Georgia... and even think OU and UF are probably too high. I wonder if MGO has a realistic poll!?!
How can most pollsters put them above teams like West Virginia, who lost a tight one on the road at USF? I guess the Big East still has no respect. Above Oregon, who lost a tight one to Cal? Above Virginia Tech... who was blown out... but blown out by the best team in the nation, rather than some winless bottomdweller (and, oh yeah, on the road). Heck, honestly, how are they above Florida State even!?! FSU lost to a decent Clemson team late on the road.
Nebraska has no quality wins (their Nebraska win now looks like total garbage). Idaho and Washington State have a combined 3 wins (over San Diego State, Idaho, and a DI-AA team). Their only decent win is Washington... and they almost choked that one away too.
Undefeated Missouri/Hawaii/Kansas/Cincy/Arizona State come in lower?!?! Other teams with one loss, to top teams, also come in lower (Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin)?
I am literally sick because of the polls. USC has a legitimate shot at the National Championship game... not just an outside shot... a good shot. They'd apparently get in over an undefeated Missouri. ...
BTW, I also see reason to gripe about Texas, Purdue, and Georgia... and even think OU and UF are probably too high. I wonder if MGO has a realistic poll!?!
My Top 25 (Oct 7th)
Well, with the last two weeks being chaotic, I thought now would be the perfect time to jump the polls and give my views. I'll generally give a poll as to what I think it should look like, then add some comments at the end. These polls are supposed to be polls taking into account things polls typically do (how teams have played, records and opponents records, etc)... and thus, it doesn't really say which teams I think are the best teams out there (these are different ideas). But without further ado,
1 LSU (6-0)
2 Ohio State (6-0)
3 South Florida (5-0)
4 California (5-0)
5 Boston College (5-0)
6 South Carolina (5-1)
7 Missouri (5-0)
8 Oklahoma (5-1)
9 Oregon (4-1)
10 West Virginia (5-1)
11 Arizona State (6-0)
12 Virginia Tech (5-1)
13 Cincinnati (6-0)
14 Illinois (5-1)
15 Wisconsin (5-1)
16 Hawaii (6-0)
17 Kansas (5-0)
18 UConn (5-0)
19 Kentucky (5-1)
20 Florida State (4-1)
21 Florida (4-2)
22 USC (4-1)
23 Tennessee (3-2)
24 Auburn (4-2)
25 Wyoming (4-1)
Other teams nearby (teams I considered for the top 25, but didn't quite make it... generally ranked from best to worst): Mississippi State, Colorado, Kansas State, Michigan, Maryland, Penn St, Boise St, Virginia, Arkansas, Miami, Georgia, Michigan St, Fresno State
Breakdown and thinking:
LSU is undisputed #1, I don't know how anyone could say any other team has done nearly so much. After very impressive blow out wins over VTech (and Mississippi State and South Carolina, which may be as impressive), they came through with a perfectly executed finish vs. Florida. It may've been insanely lucky all the breaks went their way... but I expect them to win vs. Kentucky and really don't see them going down the rest of the reg season.
Everyone has Cal at 2, but Ohio State has been much more impressive. Their closest win was this week's 17 point cakewalk. Purdue was almost certainly a bit overrated (and untested), but OSU also has a solid win at Washington. I really doubt they'll make it through the season, with Michigan State, @ Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and @ Michigan being the brutal end of the season schedule. I think they are just too young... but they've got the toughest coming to the Horseshoe, so they have a shot.
South Florida's win over WV is also a bigger feather than any of Cal's wins so far... and wins over Auburn and Florida Atlantic (hey, they are pretty good if you take a look!) add some beef. But I have USF losing this week to UCF. It's time for a real breakout from the boys from this town, and next week sets up as the perfect opportunity.
Cal squeaked one out against Oregon, and also has their Tennessee win looking decent. But the rest of their victories are against 3 average teams (2 at home), and none of them very overpowering. Cal has a decent shot at going undefeated... the USC game may be even more hyped than those of recent years... but the Arizona State game may actually be the biggest of the year in the Pac 10.
BC finally showed they want to stick around up top this week by running up a lot of points on a decent Bowling Green team. But the only ranked team they've played was a mercurial GTech... and they've had 5 home games in their first 6... winning by less than 15 points per game before this week, against uninteresting opponents. They will lose, and lose soon... though I'm thinking it unlikely it'll be next week @ND (but after this week, who knows!?!). Their last 5 is as ugly as OSU's set (@VTech, FSU, Maryland, @Clemson, H Miami), and BC isn't as good.
How about SC (the other) 6th above Oklahoma!?! I'll be lynched! But while they looked overmatched at LSU, they still had a chance throughout the game, and just couldn't turn it up. But if it wasn't for that amazing pitch-fake-FG, that game might have had a different outcome! They won at Georgia and then did a number on Kentucky this week, and look poised to finally step up and take the SEC East, even as they also have a ridiculous final 4 games (@ Tennessee, @ Arkansas, Florida, Clemson). Out of those, I'd be most worried about UT and Clemson. Don't forget they were a blocked FG from beating UF last year in Gainesville! They are my darkhorse NC candidate at this point.
And Missouri has to come in above OU for the moment, too. This'll be decided out next week. I'm not interested much at all in their domination this week of a reeling Nebraska team. The Illinois and Ole Miss wins on the road to start the year are what really have me intrigued. I doubt they can run the table... I doubt they can win in Norman. But I wouldn't put it past them. Let's make them dark horse #2.
Oklahoma at #8 seems good enough for now. If Oklahoma can win out, I see them with probably an 80 or 90% chance of making the NC, especially after the past 2 weeks of upsets. But I'm not so sure they are the superpower we make them out to be. Man how our list of the 4 "undisputed" best teams everyone had 2 weeks ago (OU, UF, USC, and LSU) has gone into disarray! Honestly, though, if OU gets through Missouri at home next week, things look really good ahead. They SHOULD just then have to worry about Missouri/Kansas/whoever in the title game. But I'm a little unimpressed; Texas should've been easier, even when they definitely were a desperate team. The win against Miami still holds up decent, but today's test was a little too scary (and, btw, thanks a lot ABC for retardedly putting on NCSU-FSU instead of the Red River Shootout. I think I'll choose CBS from now on, thanks!).
Oregon squeaks ahead of West Virginia and really only has to keep on winning to have a very good shot at the national championship game themselves..... with the one big problem for them the fact they are in a lot of trouble when it comes to the Pac 10 title (they need 2 Cal losses or a 3rd 1-loss team to get into a tie). Their schedule is going to break them a bit, I think, though, and it starts with Washington State next week, then what could be a real toughy @ Washington. USC and Arizona State at home says ouch. But they look good at the moment, with their Michigan, Houston, and now even Stanford wins looking good.
West Virginia plods along at #10. Maryland and Eastern Carolina look above average in the win category, but don't say a ton for them. Their blowout this week shows they are not folding, and I expect they'll roll through their supposedly tough stretch the next 5 games (Mississippi St, @ Rutgers, Louisville, @ Cincy, UConn), as they should catch all 5 teams at good times. This could end up being a good year, even if they don't win the Big East.
ASU gets #11 despite not having nearly the body of work of VTech simply because they seem to be stronger overall. They haven't played the teams, but they also haven't struggled nearly as much. No test so far, so it's hard to rank them. But if you really want to give them points for their wins over Colorado and Stanford, go ahead, I guess. Cal and @ Oregon in back to back weeks looks un-overcomeable... and that's if you overlook Washington, USC, and even UCLA, whom I think is an upset pick, on their schedule.
VTech looked impressive yesterday, that's for sure. I really was starting to believe in Clemson... so much for that! Close games against UNC and ECar don't look too impressive... but those are underrated teams, to be sure. The LSU loss can be written off as not showing up at the best team in the country. And that leaves a decent team. Maybe the VTech-Miami game will be what it once was this year!?! They get them, as well as BC and FSU, all at home, so don't count VT out in the ACC/National Title race.
Let's give the Bearcats from Cincy some love, huh!?! They've quietly ran up a ton of points on 5 boring teams... then went into Piscataway and beat a reeling Rutgers team. Advice: don't overlook Syracuse before your home dates with USF and WV (and then @UConn), or you may end up just like Louisville in a month. But isn't it interesting how, just as VT and BC are making inroads to becoming the cream of the ACC... USF, Cincy, and UConn are working hard to take over the elite roles of the teams they replaced!
I don't want to put Hawaii this high... but I have to just because of the national attention they are getting. Honestly, they are holding this spot, as Kansas will jump them either after beating Baylor or definitely if they win in Colorado the following week. I'm sorry Hawaii, I ain't on your bandwagon. And now the news Colt Brennan may be hurt. This team should've lost to 1-4 LaTech. Their wins this year: 0-6 DI-AA team, 1-4 team (with no 1-A wins), 2-4 UNLV, a 3-3 I-AA team, 1-5 Idaho, and 0-6 Utah State. Write me when you are good. Honestly, one more Kansas win of any kind shows you the trap door down in the polls Hawaii. No way they beat Washington to end their year.
I love this Kansas team, and I think you should too! Not only are they 5-0, but it's how they've done it. After winning by a combined score of 214-23 over some real easy opponents... they really showed how good they are by going on the road to grind out a win against a tough Kansas State team. It isn't quite apparent, still, but the Big 12 north puts the boys down south to shame... 5 teams up north may prove to be better than #2 in the south, I kid you not. Here's some numbers you are going to hear soon: this team hasn't won a conference title since 1968... and hasn't won one outright since 1930! Mark Mangino has this team primed to take it to the next level after showing glimmers the past few years. Don't forget, 2 years ago was their first bowl appearance in something like 20 years... and they also ended college football's 2nd longest losing streak in history to one opponent (Nebraska) that year. They are ready to take the next step. They have Nebraska and Missouri at home. Can you smell 12-0!?!
You know, maybe UConn could end up surprising us all the way I think Kansas will. But they have played ABSOLUTELY no one yet. At Virginia will tell us a lot next week. Then they've got that same tough conference schedule to go that everyone else seems to have, with Louisville, USF, Rutgers, Cincy, and WVU all still to come. I can't write much more because there's really not a lot of info to go on yet.
Kentucky drops quite a ways for a loss to a now-top-10 team... but if you look back... suddenly all those big wins so far this year... were nothing special. And next up, LSU, Florida, and Mississippi State, three of the better SEC teams still. If they win those, they go far, but something tells me Woodson's Heisman run goes up in smoke the next few weeks in the grueling SEC... even as he is quite a spectacular player. Feel free to prove me wrong, because until this week, I was quite high on Kentucky.
Gag, I'm putting Florida State above UF. And FSU hasn't done much to earn it yet. But they also haven't done much to "unearn" it either. The loss to Clemson was a tight one in the final minutes, and since then they've won all their games. Nothing spectacular... and I fully expect them to fall again soon enough... but people need to give this team more respect for being 4-1 at this point. With Wake, Miami, and Duke... they could move to 7-1 before brutality hits with @BC, @VTech, Maryland, and @UF to decimate... errr, complicate... their schedule/ACC/BCS hopes.
Oh Florida, why? Why did you have to snatch loss from the jaws of victory!?! I didn't give you much of a shot before tonight's game... but you came out and looked like the better team. Tim Tebow, you showed me you are the best player in the nation, bar-none, with your touch passes, vision, decision making, and leadership. But UF, you just kept keeping LSU in it, and luck did not go your way whatsoever. So that's it. I'm dropping you down in the rankings until you win some. I'm still heartbroken you would lose to stinking AUBURN last week. You are in my doghouse until you win something. You still look really good. But in Gainesville, the only thing good enough is an NC :-P. You had better beat FSU this year. :-)
No clue where to put USC. I'm really scared people will put them in the top 10 or 15, which just is inconceivable after losing at home to a winless Stanford team. Last week was judgment day for the Big East... this week its judgment day for the Pac 10, as USC and UCLA made the conference look p'ugly. For all the greatness of USC, they've sure managed to throw so much away the past few years, especially in losing to teams they shouldn't. I really thought they would come out hard this week..... and instead they lost... at home... to Stanford. Way to use that Jim Harbaugh bulletin board material to your best! If they beat Arizona next week (I'd be worried about that one), they can maybe get some confidence back going by then beating ND and parlaying that into a win at Oregon, starting the ball rolling through the rest of the schedule. Good golly what will I do if USC makes it back to the National Title Game??? :-( Who would have thought we'd have 2 of the 3 biggest upsets in college football history in 1 year!?!
Tennessee is back on the up side of their rollercoaster year. And even though Georgia is their first quality win... and Georgia themselves dive well out of the polls... the way Tennessee dominated says something. Don't forget, they stuck around on the road against Cal, even as their defense wasn't together yet. And they even had a shot in the 3rd quarter against Florida (Ok, Ok, UF manhandled Tennessee... and that was a great day for me, but still.... :-)). The Mississippi State game next week is a real gem, and if UT wins, they deserve to be up here for sure! If not, I'll just flip the Bulldogs into this slot instead! And, yes, it's the SEC; I see UT losing at least one more. But they aren't as awful as some people might think.
Auburn gets into the top 25, not really because they are suddenly so good... but because EVERYONE wants to lose the past couple weeks. 20 through 25 of the USA Today poll all dropped bad losses this week. Auburn's wins over Florida and Kansas State still look good (in my books, even given both teams lost yesterday), and Miss St and USF keep looking better for their losses. I think they'll steamroll Arkansas on the road and get some people's attention before going out and getting decked in Baton Rouge. But maybe they'll surprise... one way or the other!
That rounds out my first rendition of poll-age for the 2007 season. Look for a possible article during the week, spread picks just before the games, and then another poll next week!
1 LSU (6-0)
2 Ohio State (6-0)
3 South Florida (5-0)
4 California (5-0)
5 Boston College (5-0)
6 South Carolina (5-1)
7 Missouri (5-0)
8 Oklahoma (5-1)
9 Oregon (4-1)
10 West Virginia (5-1)
11 Arizona State (6-0)
12 Virginia Tech (5-1)
13 Cincinnati (6-0)
14 Illinois (5-1)
15 Wisconsin (5-1)
16 Hawaii (6-0)
17 Kansas (5-0)
18 UConn (5-0)
19 Kentucky (5-1)
20 Florida State (4-1)
21 Florida (4-2)
22 USC (4-1)
23 Tennessee (3-2)
24 Auburn (4-2)
25 Wyoming (4-1)
Other teams nearby (teams I considered for the top 25, but didn't quite make it... generally ranked from best to worst): Mississippi State, Colorado, Kansas State, Michigan, Maryland, Penn St, Boise St, Virginia, Arkansas, Miami, Georgia, Michigan St, Fresno State
Breakdown and thinking:
LSU is undisputed #1, I don't know how anyone could say any other team has done nearly so much. After very impressive blow out wins over VTech (and Mississippi State and South Carolina, which may be as impressive), they came through with a perfectly executed finish vs. Florida. It may've been insanely lucky all the breaks went their way... but I expect them to win vs. Kentucky and really don't see them going down the rest of the reg season.
Everyone has Cal at 2, but Ohio State has been much more impressive. Their closest win was this week's 17 point cakewalk. Purdue was almost certainly a bit overrated (and untested), but OSU also has a solid win at Washington. I really doubt they'll make it through the season, with Michigan State, @ Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and @ Michigan being the brutal end of the season schedule. I think they are just too young... but they've got the toughest coming to the Horseshoe, so they have a shot.
South Florida's win over WV is also a bigger feather than any of Cal's wins so far... and wins over Auburn and Florida Atlantic (hey, they are pretty good if you take a look!) add some beef. But I have USF losing this week to UCF. It's time for a real breakout from the boys from this town, and next week sets up as the perfect opportunity.
Cal squeaked one out against Oregon, and also has their Tennessee win looking decent. But the rest of their victories are against 3 average teams (2 at home), and none of them very overpowering. Cal has a decent shot at going undefeated... the USC game may be even more hyped than those of recent years... but the Arizona State game may actually be the biggest of the year in the Pac 10.
BC finally showed they want to stick around up top this week by running up a lot of points on a decent Bowling Green team. But the only ranked team they've played was a mercurial GTech... and they've had 5 home games in their first 6... winning by less than 15 points per game before this week, against uninteresting opponents. They will lose, and lose soon... though I'm thinking it unlikely it'll be next week @ND (but after this week, who knows!?!). Their last 5 is as ugly as OSU's set (@VTech, FSU, Maryland, @Clemson, H Miami), and BC isn't as good.
How about SC (the other) 6th above Oklahoma!?! I'll be lynched! But while they looked overmatched at LSU, they still had a chance throughout the game, and just couldn't turn it up. But if it wasn't for that amazing pitch-fake-FG, that game might have had a different outcome! They won at Georgia and then did a number on Kentucky this week, and look poised to finally step up and take the SEC East, even as they also have a ridiculous final 4 games (@ Tennessee, @ Arkansas, Florida, Clemson). Out of those, I'd be most worried about UT and Clemson. Don't forget they were a blocked FG from beating UF last year in Gainesville! They are my darkhorse NC candidate at this point.
And Missouri has to come in above OU for the moment, too. This'll be decided out next week. I'm not interested much at all in their domination this week of a reeling Nebraska team. The Illinois and Ole Miss wins on the road to start the year are what really have me intrigued. I doubt they can run the table... I doubt they can win in Norman. But I wouldn't put it past them. Let's make them dark horse #2.
Oklahoma at #8 seems good enough for now. If Oklahoma can win out, I see them with probably an 80 or 90% chance of making the NC, especially after the past 2 weeks of upsets. But I'm not so sure they are the superpower we make them out to be. Man how our list of the 4 "undisputed" best teams everyone had 2 weeks ago (OU, UF, USC, and LSU) has gone into disarray! Honestly, though, if OU gets through Missouri at home next week, things look really good ahead. They SHOULD just then have to worry about Missouri/Kansas/whoever in the title game. But I'm a little unimpressed; Texas should've been easier, even when they definitely were a desperate team. The win against Miami still holds up decent, but today's test was a little too scary (and, btw, thanks a lot ABC for retardedly putting on NCSU-FSU instead of the Red River Shootout. I think I'll choose CBS from now on, thanks!).
Oregon squeaks ahead of West Virginia and really only has to keep on winning to have a very good shot at the national championship game themselves..... with the one big problem for them the fact they are in a lot of trouble when it comes to the Pac 10 title (they need 2 Cal losses or a 3rd 1-loss team to get into a tie). Their schedule is going to break them a bit, I think, though, and it starts with Washington State next week, then what could be a real toughy @ Washington. USC and Arizona State at home says ouch. But they look good at the moment, with their Michigan, Houston, and now even Stanford wins looking good.
West Virginia plods along at #10. Maryland and Eastern Carolina look above average in the win category, but don't say a ton for them. Their blowout this week shows they are not folding, and I expect they'll roll through their supposedly tough stretch the next 5 games (Mississippi St, @ Rutgers, Louisville, @ Cincy, UConn), as they should catch all 5 teams at good times. This could end up being a good year, even if they don't win the Big East.
ASU gets #11 despite not having nearly the body of work of VTech simply because they seem to be stronger overall. They haven't played the teams, but they also haven't struggled nearly as much. No test so far, so it's hard to rank them. But if you really want to give them points for their wins over Colorado and Stanford, go ahead, I guess. Cal and @ Oregon in back to back weeks looks un-overcomeable... and that's if you overlook Washington, USC, and even UCLA, whom I think is an upset pick, on their schedule.
VTech looked impressive yesterday, that's for sure. I really was starting to believe in Clemson... so much for that! Close games against UNC and ECar don't look too impressive... but those are underrated teams, to be sure. The LSU loss can be written off as not showing up at the best team in the country. And that leaves a decent team. Maybe the VTech-Miami game will be what it once was this year!?! They get them, as well as BC and FSU, all at home, so don't count VT out in the ACC/National Title race.
Let's give the Bearcats from Cincy some love, huh!?! They've quietly ran up a ton of points on 5 boring teams... then went into Piscataway and beat a reeling Rutgers team. Advice: don't overlook Syracuse before your home dates with USF and WV (and then @UConn), or you may end up just like Louisville in a month. But isn't it interesting how, just as VT and BC are making inroads to becoming the cream of the ACC... USF, Cincy, and UConn are working hard to take over the elite roles of the teams they replaced!
I don't want to put Hawaii this high... but I have to just because of the national attention they are getting. Honestly, they are holding this spot, as Kansas will jump them either after beating Baylor or definitely if they win in Colorado the following week. I'm sorry Hawaii, I ain't on your bandwagon. And now the news Colt Brennan may be hurt. This team should've lost to 1-4 LaTech. Their wins this year: 0-6 DI-AA team, 1-4 team (with no 1-A wins), 2-4 UNLV, a 3-3 I-AA team, 1-5 Idaho, and 0-6 Utah State. Write me when you are good. Honestly, one more Kansas win of any kind shows you the trap door down in the polls Hawaii. No way they beat Washington to end their year.
I love this Kansas team, and I think you should too! Not only are they 5-0, but it's how they've done it. After winning by a combined score of 214-23 over some real easy opponents... they really showed how good they are by going on the road to grind out a win against a tough Kansas State team. It isn't quite apparent, still, but the Big 12 north puts the boys down south to shame... 5 teams up north may prove to be better than #2 in the south, I kid you not. Here's some numbers you are going to hear soon: this team hasn't won a conference title since 1968... and hasn't won one outright since 1930! Mark Mangino has this team primed to take it to the next level after showing glimmers the past few years. Don't forget, 2 years ago was their first bowl appearance in something like 20 years... and they also ended college football's 2nd longest losing streak in history to one opponent (Nebraska) that year. They are ready to take the next step. They have Nebraska and Missouri at home. Can you smell 12-0!?!
You know, maybe UConn could end up surprising us all the way I think Kansas will. But they have played ABSOLUTELY no one yet. At Virginia will tell us a lot next week. Then they've got that same tough conference schedule to go that everyone else seems to have, with Louisville, USF, Rutgers, Cincy, and WVU all still to come. I can't write much more because there's really not a lot of info to go on yet.
Kentucky drops quite a ways for a loss to a now-top-10 team... but if you look back... suddenly all those big wins so far this year... were nothing special. And next up, LSU, Florida, and Mississippi State, three of the better SEC teams still. If they win those, they go far, but something tells me Woodson's Heisman run goes up in smoke the next few weeks in the grueling SEC... even as he is quite a spectacular player. Feel free to prove me wrong, because until this week, I was quite high on Kentucky.
Gag, I'm putting Florida State above UF. And FSU hasn't done much to earn it yet. But they also haven't done much to "unearn" it either. The loss to Clemson was a tight one in the final minutes, and since then they've won all their games. Nothing spectacular... and I fully expect them to fall again soon enough... but people need to give this team more respect for being 4-1 at this point. With Wake, Miami, and Duke... they could move to 7-1 before brutality hits with @BC, @VTech, Maryland, and @UF to decimate... errr, complicate... their schedule/ACC/BCS hopes.
Oh Florida, why? Why did you have to snatch loss from the jaws of victory!?! I didn't give you much of a shot before tonight's game... but you came out and looked like the better team. Tim Tebow, you showed me you are the best player in the nation, bar-none, with your touch passes, vision, decision making, and leadership. But UF, you just kept keeping LSU in it, and luck did not go your way whatsoever. So that's it. I'm dropping you down in the rankings until you win some. I'm still heartbroken you would lose to stinking AUBURN last week. You are in my doghouse until you win something. You still look really good. But in Gainesville, the only thing good enough is an NC :-P. You had better beat FSU this year. :-)
No clue where to put USC. I'm really scared people will put them in the top 10 or 15, which just is inconceivable after losing at home to a winless Stanford team. Last week was judgment day for the Big East... this week its judgment day for the Pac 10, as USC and UCLA made the conference look p'ugly. For all the greatness of USC, they've sure managed to throw so much away the past few years, especially in losing to teams they shouldn't. I really thought they would come out hard this week..... and instead they lost... at home... to Stanford. Way to use that Jim Harbaugh bulletin board material to your best! If they beat Arizona next week (I'd be worried about that one), they can maybe get some confidence back going by then beating ND and parlaying that into a win at Oregon, starting the ball rolling through the rest of the schedule. Good golly what will I do if USC makes it back to the National Title Game??? :-( Who would have thought we'd have 2 of the 3 biggest upsets in college football history in 1 year!?!
Tennessee is back on the up side of their rollercoaster year. And even though Georgia is their first quality win... and Georgia themselves dive well out of the polls... the way Tennessee dominated says something. Don't forget, they stuck around on the road against Cal, even as their defense wasn't together yet. And they even had a shot in the 3rd quarter against Florida (Ok, Ok, UF manhandled Tennessee... and that was a great day for me, but still.... :-)). The Mississippi State game next week is a real gem, and if UT wins, they deserve to be up here for sure! If not, I'll just flip the Bulldogs into this slot instead! And, yes, it's the SEC; I see UT losing at least one more. But they aren't as awful as some people might think.
Auburn gets into the top 25, not really because they are suddenly so good... but because EVERYONE wants to lose the past couple weeks. 20 through 25 of the USA Today poll all dropped bad losses this week. Auburn's wins over Florida and Kansas State still look good (in my books, even given both teams lost yesterday), and Miss St and USF keep looking better for their losses. I think they'll steamroll Arkansas on the road and get some people's attention before going out and getting decked in Baton Rouge. But maybe they'll surprise... one way or the other!
That rounds out my first rendition of poll-age for the 2007 season. Look for a possible article during the week, spread picks just before the games, and then another poll next week!
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