Top 25 (Oct 28th)

Well I watched one of my teams officially fall out of the National Title race (even while I STILL hold out hope (maybe faint hope... but better hope than you might think! (see my discussion of UF))), the other one didn't play (and everyone is still down on them after their weak performance last week...... and two of the 5 undefeated won games after looking awful for some sizable portion of the game. And o obscene upsets to speak of. Starting to look like we're finally getting down to business maybe. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more teams fall... maybe, as the schedules hint at, in one final ugly run of destruction at the season's end.

So here comes the new top 25. The turnover of teams continues, but the undefeated teams are finally starting to suggest that at least two of them might emerge and kill off the chaos theories (all 4 major undefeateds beat top 25 teams, and arguably their strongest opponents left on the reg season schedule), and the poll gets a major overhaul this week as we finally got a much better idea on quite a few teams...


1 Ohio State 9-0 / win @ Penn State || 0
2 Kansas 8-0 / win @ Texas A&M || +4
3 Arizona State 8-0 / win vs California || +6
4 Oregon 7-1 / win vs USC || -1
5 Boston College 8-0 / win @ Virginia Tech || -3
6 LSU 7-1 / OFF || -2
7 West Virginia 6-1 / win @ Rutgers || 0
8 Oklahoma 7-1 / OFF || -3
9 Hawaii 7-0 / win vs NMSt || +2
10 Missouri 6-1 / win vs Iowa St || +3
11 Connecticut 6-1 / win vs USF || +10
12 Virginia Tech 6-2 / loss vs Boston College || -4
13 Georgia 6-2 / win vs Florida || NR
14 Florida 5-3 / loss vs Georgia || -2
15 South Florida 6-2 / loss @ UConn || -7
16 Michigan 7-2 / win vs Minnesota || +4
17 Tennessee 4-3 / win vs South Carolina || NR
18 USC 6-2 / loss @ Oregon || -1
19 South Carolina 6-3 / loss @ Tennessee || -3
20 Texas 7-2 / win vs Nebraska || -1
21 Alabama 6-2 / OFF || +1
22 Clemson 6-2 / win @ Maryland || +3
23 Boise State 7-1 / win @ Fresno State || NR
24 Auburn 6-3 / win vs Mississippi || NR
25 Kentucky 6-2 / loss vs Mississippi State || -10

Others Considered: (generally ranked highest to lowest):
Wake Forest, Purdue, Virginia, Kansas State, Troy, Penn St, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Miami, Houston, Vanderbilt, BYU, New Mexico, Maryland, Rutgers, Florida State, Fresno State, Cincinnati, Oregon State

DROPPED OUT: Virginia, Penn State, Wake Forest, Rutgers


Breakdown:

Ohio State may have been the first team labeled the best to step up and show they really are the best... at least since LSU's win over VT or USC's over Nebraska... but they looked ready to play. On the road at Penn State was a big game. And they played big football. Very, very impressive. If they win out, they should be #1 at the end, in every poll, if no one is insane.

OK, OK, that's it. I can't underrate them any longer. They've beaten three very quality Big 12 opponents on the road... and I'm ready to predict they'll beat Missouri at home to finish the year... setting up a very intriguing Big 12 Title game possibly. Yeah, they have to get there first... but Nebraska and Iowa State at home SHOULD be easy wins. The road game at Oklahoma State will be very interesting, as it'll match what I now consider the best road team in the country (THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING) versus probably the biggest homer in the nation this year in OSU. ..... Here's a very interesting possibility that is a little more possible today: all 4 undefeateds do win out..... leading to December 1st - Ohio State @ Michigan, Kansas vs. Oklahoma, Arizona St vs Arizona, and Boston College playing Virginia Tech again. And can you imagine if Arizona State is the team to lose!?! Arizona might have turned a corner today, so they'd better come out really strong if they do undefeated until that point. But everything this weekend was (4 undefeated teams playing ranked opponents), that one could be even better! Throw in LSU in the SEC title game and West Virginia playing Pitt... we could end up with one of the biggest upset days in college football history (paling even 2001) to crown a crazy year!

Arizona State makes another jump up after California... but did they really play all that well? They fell behind big early, which didn't show a lot of readiness. But I guess it just continues to show they are a late starter, as they've gotten off slow in a few games. Where a week ago I had basically already decided each undefeated team would have a loss... indeed, the national title picture has now gotten VERY interesting with some possible big arguments when the season wraps up. What if the 4 big conference teams go undefeated? I think it definitely comes down to ASU and Kansas....... and ASU probably nips in, honestly! It should be very close... but if Arizona State goes in and beats Oregon at home... they've got a win Oklahoma can only dream of (sorry, Missouri doesn't appear to be nearly the caliber). UCLA and especially Arizona will pad their numbers as well. Oh yeah, and they already have the lead in the polls. Of course, then there is the question about what happens to solid one loss teams like LSU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. Some of this will sort itself out (see above in the Kansas box!). But if ASU wins out, they've earned my whole pile of respect. I don't think the Pac 10 is as good as the SEC (further evidenced by UCLA's loss today), but if ASU wins them all, in my mind, I'd just nip them above a one loss team.

4 vs 5 was a really tough choice. Additionally, I again thought about having LSU above Oregon (I may take a quick look at last week's poll, but I try not to let it have a huge impact on this week). But again, I just edged Oregon ahead. I might have thought they were capable of more this week... but in terms of momentum and respect, today looks huge. I heard ESPN talking about the Oregon versus LSU comparison... that could be an AWESOME one if it comes down to it! There's really no wrong answer. And I know I'll hear PLAYOFF PLAYOFF PLAYOFF if it does come down to it. So I'm hoping, despite how exciting that would be, that it doesn't. Because they'd have such similar resumes: both having beat a top OOC team early by a ton (that turned it around) - Michigan and VTech, both haven beaten a top team in their conference opponent (if Oregon loses, they won't look much better than a Florida win), and both having lost by the slimmest of margins. LSU at least lost on the road, but Cal looked like the better team at the time... Oregon would also have USC, while LSU would be stuck with a pile of wins over solid SEC teams (Auburn, Bama, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia???). Quite interesting. But Oregon is a yard from a perfect season, don't forget that. Will be fun to see which team emerges from the Pac 10, that's for sure!
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This is going to be one of those things that fans of a team would want to kill me for! I drop Boston College 3 places for winning!?!?!??! But COME ON! Did you see the game!?! They did not earn that game in any way whatsoever. And, you know, I surely do subscribe to the fact sometimes a team just has to pull out a lucky one to make their season (I think of Oklahoma State and TAMU for OU in 2000 and also some MAC team or like Minnesota or something that should have beaten Ohio State in 2002 (or didn't they just almost lose EVERY game!!!?!). But honestly BC showed they AREN'T that good. The other top teams stepped up in a huge way. Meanwhile, on Thursday, it looked like a battle to decide who was more disgusting. Every time VT would go nowhere offensively, this supposed Heisman candidate in Ryan would come out and miss the mark by 10 yards. Sure, blame the rain all you want. And you can believe he won't have periods like that again. But I think this is just the first glimmer of things to come. I'm happy to be rooting fully for FSU for the first time in... a while. :-) And if FSU does win, I can tell you for a fact, BC should barely be in the top 25... FSU isn't that good. At Maryland and at Clemson are tough to sweep too. Then Miami that final weekend. And then a title game (Miami, VT, or Virginia?). BC, you gotta prove you want it.

LSU slips down to a solid 6 behind the top 5. I feel more secure placing them above Oklahoma... but still can't see enough room to slip them past Oregon. The Nick Saban Bowl looks like it could be a beast now, though, and in Tuscaloosa... oooh boy, that's a doozy. And you know if Bama wins, they take control of the west (though Auburn could still put a spot in that plan). Imagine Bama versus UF for the title!?! Who'd have thought LSU would be the SEC team out as we look today. I'd certainly smile! But after a run of 4 straight ranked (at gametime) opponents and 6 of the last 8, let's just see if they come out hotter after a week off they really needed. It might not even be close.

Another close choice here... but I think West Virginia showed they have some quality OU doesn't this weekend, by winning handily on the road against a ranked team. With Slaton and White looking like money, I really do see them winning out, even as they play 3 of the 5 best Big East teams (UConn, Cincy, and Louisville). OU or West Virginia would be another interesting National Title game question.
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After many favorable weeks for Oklahoma, this one butchered them. Where you thought you could count on an undefeated team to lose... no such luck. The south keeps looking uglier by the day. And a week to "savor" the Iowa State effort doesn't leave anyone thinking good things about Oklahoma, I think. And I'm not sure they'll look any better against TAMU next week. @Texas Tech still looks daunting, even as it's looking like TTech might be down and out... and then that OSU game looks dicier and dicier to be sure!

Oh good golly. I already said the team this week probably hurt more than any other was Oklahoma. Well, the team this week helped by FAR more than any other was Hawaii. 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 in the BCS lost. Hawaii is 17. Georgia could go by them. But Texas doesn't deserve to one bit, and it'll be tough for Michigan to. Uconn might come up close too. But the point is, this team may even come in tomorrow at BCS time in the sacred #12 slot. And if they don't, they have to be confident now they'll get the last bit more. Oh, oh yeah, Hawaii, you might want to be careful. That whole counting your chickens deal. Boise State looks BRUTAL. Hawaii showed they might have a little punch still left in them... but can they get through their tough tough final 1/4 season?

Most people will probably put Missouri above Hawaii. Fair enough, I guess... but I think people have forgotten how much weight they are giving wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Tech... all which have fallen on hard times. I'm still not impressed because they didn't look like a threat against OU. They "hung with" them. But didn't look dangerous. Still, they have 4 good games ahead of them and could really turn people around.

Some people will surely think I'm crazy driving UConn up this high suddenly. But did you forget? They are a point from still being undefeated, and that to a still intriguing Virginia team. Maybe it's a bit of a leap, but beating a hungry USF team scores major points for me. Of course Rutgers-UConn may be the best game no one watches next week... it sure excites me! It's funny because if they win out... they maybe just deserve consideration with the 1 loss teams above still. They won't get it. But they do. Oh yeah, but I doubt they do that!

VT only falls 4 spots!?!?!? Sure! They won that game! They just have an awful fourth quarter coach! LSU is still good, and VTech still looked primed to win quite a few games. But what a shock they blow another top chance to take control in their division. Ugg. Wouldn't be shocked to see them win out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop 2 or even 3 to GT, FSU, Miami, and Virginia.

Man, there just isn't anyone left to put in this part of the poll. UConn and VT really got the favor they did because EVERYONE in this section lost, and the teams that won further back mostly looked pedestrian. Georgia takes the next spot... but since when did they have Troy next week!?! Umm, yipe! I make Troy the FAVORITE! Georgia will be too emotionally high after beating UF. BTW, nice class (or not) with the whole dancing in the endzone deal. Blah. Fair enough, though, they won it, fair and square with better play on the field and key turnovers.

Florida also doesn't fall much. Even with 3 losses, they are 13th in October. That's RARE. But I argue they still haven't lost to a bad team, even as up and down as Georgia is. They have still beaten Kentucky and Tennessee. My favorite thing: UF can still win the East! Only two teams have records above their's: Georgia and Tennessee. A loss by each of them (Georgia plays Auburn and Kentucky at home, UT still has Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky). If they each lose exactly once, it would make a three way tie with Florida. Any other team still with 3 losses only helps UF. Don't forget, UF just lost their first East game today. Still, there is sorrow here. And I'm also thinking it's time to be quiet as I was just getting boastful about saying UF would still get a title game shot, the moment they lost to LSU. I'm still wary of South Carolina up there.

How far does USF slip this week? It should be a ways. Any team to lose two in a row in October deserves a plunge... especially when the 2nd was a poor game vs. UConn. Yet they still own the best record in Florida (speaking of... what an ugly day... 1-4 on the slate for the state, with losses by both F_U's, USF, and UF, with Miami off and UCF to play tonight). Isn't it amazing how badly darlings keep crumbling!?! Remember two weeks ago how we were ready to give Kentucky and USF a title game? Whoops! But USF gets one more chance to get back on track: Cincy next week. It's really a fight to stave off elimination, so it'll be interesting. Did I point out that technically both teams are tied for last in the Big East!?! Blech!

Michigan is steadily rising... but I couldn't give them too much love. Moreso because their schedule since week 2 doesn't look that overpowering than anything... and they haven't been totally dominating. But few teams have. The season wrapup with Ohio State traveling to The Big House will be for the Big 10 (unless Michigan or Ohio State lose both their prior two games), and everyone has to wonder... what Michigan team will show up. You wonder if last year's heartbreaker to OSU was the cause of their horrible down period (don't forget, they actually lost 4 straight starting there... but have otherwise looked very championlike in the 2 years). Michigan State and Wisconsin on the road will show us whether this Michigan team is for real and will come in with a team that can win. I hope so!

Wow, what an amazing game! I was at the FSU-Duke game (blech), and so I missed seeing the UT-South Carolina game. I got the pick right with Tennessee winning... but boy it was more amazing a game than just some prediction could even capture. They gain back a lot of love from me. Yes, they were definitely smoked by Florida, Cal, AND Alabama on the road. And their only two big wins (South Carolina, Georgia) were at home. But they look like they've turned the corner (AGAIN). They outplayed South Carolina in the first half... then when they lost the momentum and fell apart... they buckled down and still took away a win. Yes, there was a ton of luck involved (like the fumble and false-start-negated FG), but I declare they come out of this game stronger as a team. ULL and Arkansas at home should help solidify that, if they play solid games... and if they do, I think they hold by far the best shot at winning the east, and win out.

Well, I'm finally ready to reaccept Southern Cal is a contender. Going on the road and falling just short against Oregon looked quite powerful. The problem is, their mistakes are what killed them... and they had a lot. I suppose they really are still one of the best football teams, skillwise... but they just need to overcome the mistakes. I want to argue they still have a shot at the Pac 10... but they need 2 more Oregon losses now pretty much, and that's tough. They are a good team... the Stanford loss I'll start to forget about... but being out of the title hunt in October must be a weird feeling in Los Angeles! I think they'll get by OSU easily next week...... then Cal should be an interesting game, with both teams sort of down-and-out.

The other USC falls just below the primary namesake with their loss. It's not so much that they lost, it's how they played the first half. I still think we totally underrated Vandy, and that's the heart of the reason they lost last week.... but boy if the top SEC teams aren't losing to teams they are supposed to beat a lot now (UF-Auburn, USC-Vandy, Kentucky-Miss St (oh, and Auburn-Miss St while you are at it)). But unlike the Pac-10, this showz the conference really is 11 deep. These teams didn't lose much in the way of bad OOC games... even the bottom tier teams. The SEC East is a ridiculous 15-1 OOC this year!!! If Georgia beats GTech and Troy, UF beats FSU, Tennessee dismantles their cupcake, USC beats Clemson, and especially if Vandy beats Wake Forest, it will 100% guarantee they are the best conference in the country by a mile. 31-5 out-of-conference as a whole is the SEC. And while most of those wins weren't over the supreme opponents... the losses tell another story: UT lost at Cal (the single SEC East loss OOC!), Bama lost a barnburner to FSU, Auburn lost a tight one to USF, Miss State got shellacked by WVU, and even lowly Mississippi only lost to Missouri by 13. No bad losses, and wins over VT, KSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Houston, and a pair over Troy. If their offensive woes are put to rest, I fear South Carolina (especially as a Gator fan. 5 SEC losses would hurt bad.)

Yuck and a half, it's Texas still in the top 25. They don't deserve it. Not after all-but-losing to Nebraska. It wasn't even a pile of mistakes, it was just poor football. I think I said before the OU game that if they lost there they would lose 3 or 4 more. Well that can still happen with the two other big Texas schools and Ok State to come. Probably won't quite come to fruition, but this team is going to disappoint. Charles is going to be take this team on his shoulders to make them win. Still, though, look out for them in the title hunt next year!

I only give Bama a little love, despite the fact their opponents from this season went 6-2 this week with some key wins. They are looking more and more glamorous, that's for sure. Next week is obviously the test for Saban, though. Is he going to come in prepared to the rims and hungry... or too nervous that their season tails off? I'm still not 100% convinced about Bama. But their losses are only by a combined 10 points, in Jacksonville and versus a tough, yet mercurial Georgia team. Auburn should also be an interesting end of season run. 2-0 in those two big games and Nick Saban deserves all the praise he gets and then some. 1-1 and he's definitely Alabama's coach to lead them into the future. 0-2? Same old, same old for Bama football of recent. Bring back Mike Shula! :-)

Clemson moves up with a solid win over Maryland, but they are still another team I need to see one more convincing win from. After personally seeing how much a lie Duke's close games are this season, Clemson needs to dominate to impress me. But they could well be the team to really put an axe in BC's title hopes. 100 points in 2 weeks looks nice. Beating Maryland will continue to look good. But VT and GT won't so much. Still, if they win out, they've got a fair shot at the ACC title game and a BCS bowl, so they have a lot to play for!

Boise State has to jump into the top 25 at this point. And it isn't at all because of last year's showcase. They hop right over Troy, whose portfolio took a hit because of how Florida fared and because they played yet another bad team. They can show the OSU win was for real in 7 days! But I think Boise is by far the best non-conference team (yeah, you heard me Hawaii)... they've beaten 4 of the better teams in their conference in 4 weeks, plus Wyoming and Southern Miss out of conference, and gave Washington a bit of a game on the road. They can tidy up lose ends this week vs San Diego State and really settle things up for their season-ender at Hawaii. I wonder if Boise could make the BCS if they win out? Teams keep losing at the current rate... and a non-top-16 team wins a conference, and I wouldn't be surprised.

And the SEC rounds out the top 25. It's still quite interesting to compare Auburn to Florida in terms of resume at this point. Auburn's losses come to LSU, South Florida, and Mississippi State by a combined 14 points. They beat Kansas State and Vandy. And, oh yeah, they also stuck it to Florida on the road. They are nearly done in the SEC West race, but I've gotta say they will be the cream of the mid-level bowls. Georgia and Alabama will show whether that's the case.

Last, but not least, it's Kentucky. I'm sure the humans will drop them WELL out of the polls this week... but I wouldn't be so quick. Have you forgotten the LSU win? Mississippi State is another SEC team that is better than anyone thinks. Sure, they should have won this game easily, but they really are a good team. Woodson had an off game, but I can see them winning 2 of 3 still vs Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. 5 ranked SEC East teams (and the 6th not too far off). Amazing. But they really are this good. I wonder if 5 can finish out in the top 25? We shall see!



I dropped Wake back a bit because I reconsidered their games... particularly how they haven't really beaten any team by much this year... but they can get back in next week by beating Virginia. I don't think there's a lot else to say about my other votes category... so that's that. I wonder what'll happen next week? Probably more chaos! And it's fun (despite the fact it'll push the call for playoffs)!
Have a good one!