My Top 25 (Oct 7th)

Well, with the last two weeks being chaotic, I thought now would be the perfect time to jump the polls and give my views. I'll generally give a poll as to what I think it should look like, then add some comments at the end. These polls are supposed to be polls taking into account things polls typically do (how teams have played, records and opponents records, etc)... and thus, it doesn't really say which teams I think are the best teams out there (these are different ideas). But without further ado,

1 LSU (6-0)
2 Ohio State (6-0)
3 South Florida (5-0)
4 California (5-0)
5 Boston College (5-0)
6 South Carolina (5-1)
7 Missouri (5-0)
8 Oklahoma (5-1)
9 Oregon (4-1)
10 West Virginia (5-1)
11 Arizona State (6-0)
12 Virginia Tech (5-1)
13 Cincinnati (6-0)
14 Illinois (5-1)
15 Wisconsin (5-1)
16 Hawaii (6-0)
17 Kansas (5-0)
18 UConn (5-0)
19 Kentucky (5-1)
20 Florida State (4-1)
21 Florida (4-2)
22 USC (4-1)
23 Tennessee (3-2)
24 Auburn (4-2)
25 Wyoming (4-1)

Other teams nearby (teams I considered for the top 25, but didn't quite make it... generally ranked from best to worst): Mississippi State, Colorado, Kansas State, Michigan, Maryland, Penn St, Boise St, Virginia, Arkansas, Miami, Georgia, Michigan St, Fresno State



Breakdown and thinking:
LSU is undisputed #1, I don't know how anyone could say any other team has done nearly so much. After very impressive blow out wins over VTech (and Mississippi State and South Carolina, which may be as impressive), they came through with a perfectly executed finish vs. Florida. It may've been insanely lucky all the breaks went their way... but I expect them to win vs. Kentucky and really don't see them going down the rest of the reg season.

Everyone has Cal at 2, but Ohio State has been much more impressive. Their closest win was this week's 17 point cakewalk. Purdue was almost certainly a bit overrated (and untested), but OSU also has a solid win at Washington. I really doubt they'll make it through the season, with Michigan State, @ Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and @ Michigan being the brutal end of the season schedule. I think they are just too young... but they've got the toughest coming to the Horseshoe, so they have a shot.

South Florida's win over WV is also a bigger feather than any of Cal's wins so far... and wins over Auburn and Florida Atlantic (hey, they are pretty good if you take a look!) add some beef. But I have USF losing this week to UCF. It's time for a real breakout from the boys from this town, and next week sets up as the perfect opportunity.

Cal squeaked one out against Oregon, and also has their Tennessee win looking decent. But the rest of their victories are against 3 average teams (2 at home), and none of them very overpowering. Cal has a decent shot at going undefeated... the USC game may be even more hyped than those of recent years... but the Arizona State game may actually be the biggest of the year in the Pac 10.

BC finally showed they want to stick around up top this week by running up a lot of points on a decent Bowling Green team. But the only ranked team they've played was a mercurial GTech... and they've had 5 home games in their first 6... winning by less than 15 points per game before this week, against uninteresting opponents. They will lose, and lose soon... though I'm thinking it unlikely it'll be next week @ND (but after this week, who knows!?!). Their last 5 is as ugly as OSU's set (@VTech, FSU, Maryland, @Clemson, H Miami), and BC isn't as good.

How about SC (the other) 6th above Oklahoma!?! I'll be lynched! But while they looked overmatched at LSU, they still had a chance throughout the game, and just couldn't turn it up. But if it wasn't for that amazing pitch-fake-FG, that game might have had a different outcome! They won at Georgia and then did a number on Kentucky this week, and look poised to finally step up and take the SEC East, even as they also have a ridiculous final 4 games (@ Tennessee, @ Arkansas, Florida, Clemson). Out of those, I'd be most worried about UT and Clemson. Don't forget they were a blocked FG from beating UF last year in Gainesville! They are my darkhorse NC candidate at this point.

And Missouri has to come in above OU for the moment, too. This'll be decided out next week. I'm not interested much at all in their domination this week of a reeling Nebraska team. The Illinois and Ole Miss wins on the road to start the year are what really have me intrigued. I doubt they can run the table... I doubt they can win in Norman. But I wouldn't put it past them. Let's make them dark horse #2.

Oklahoma at #8 seems good enough for now. If Oklahoma can win out, I see them with probably an 80 or 90% chance of making the NC, especially after the past 2 weeks of upsets. But I'm not so sure they are the superpower we make them out to be. Man how our list of the 4 "undisputed" best teams everyone had 2 weeks ago (OU, UF, USC, and LSU) has gone into disarray! Honestly, though, if OU gets through Missouri at home next week, things look really good ahead. They SHOULD just then have to worry about Missouri/Kansas/whoever in the title game. But I'm a little unimpressed; Texas should've been easier, even when they definitely were a desperate team. The win against Miami still holds up decent, but today's test was a little too scary (and, btw, thanks a lot ABC for retardedly putting on NCSU-FSU instead of the Red River Shootout. I think I'll choose CBS from now on, thanks!).

Oregon squeaks ahead of West Virginia and really only has to keep on winning to have a very good shot at the national championship game themselves..... with the one big problem for them the fact they are in a lot of trouble when it comes to the Pac 10 title (they need 2 Cal losses or a 3rd 1-loss team to get into a tie). Their schedule is going to break them a bit, I think, though, and it starts with Washington State next week, then what could be a real toughy @ Washington. USC and Arizona State at home says ouch. But they look good at the moment, with their Michigan, Houston, and now even Stanford wins looking good.

West Virginia plods along at #10. Maryland and Eastern Carolina look above average in the win category, but don't say a ton for them. Their blowout this week shows they are not folding, and I expect they'll roll through their supposedly tough stretch the next 5 games (Mississippi St, @ Rutgers, Louisville, @ Cincy, UConn), as they should catch all 5 teams at good times. This could end up being a good year, even if they don't win the Big East.

ASU gets #11 despite not having nearly the body of work of VTech simply because they seem to be stronger overall. They haven't played the teams, but they also haven't struggled nearly as much. No test so far, so it's hard to rank them. But if you really want to give them points for their wins over Colorado and Stanford, go ahead, I guess. Cal and @ Oregon in back to back weeks looks un-overcomeable... and that's if you overlook Washington, USC, and even UCLA, whom I think is an upset pick, on their schedule.

VTech looked impressive yesterday, that's for sure. I really was starting to believe in Clemson... so much for that! Close games against UNC and ECar don't look too impressive... but those are underrated teams, to be sure. The LSU loss can be written off as not showing up at the best team in the country. And that leaves a decent team. Maybe the VTech-Miami game will be what it once was this year!?! They get them, as well as BC and FSU, all at home, so don't count VT out in the ACC/National Title race.

Let's give the Bearcats from Cincy some love, huh!?! They've quietly ran up a ton of points on 5 boring teams... then went into Piscataway and beat a reeling Rutgers team. Advice: don't overlook Syracuse before your home dates with USF and WV (and then @UConn), or you may end up just like Louisville in a month. But isn't it interesting how, just as VT and BC are making inroads to becoming the cream of the ACC... USF, Cincy, and UConn are working hard to take over the elite roles of the teams they replaced!

I don't want to put Hawaii this high... but I have to just because of the national attention they are getting. Honestly, they are holding this spot, as Kansas will jump them either after beating Baylor or definitely if they win in Colorado the following week. I'm sorry Hawaii, I ain't on your bandwagon. And now the news Colt Brennan may be hurt. This team should've lost to 1-4 LaTech. Their wins this year: 0-6 DI-AA team, 1-4 team (with no 1-A wins), 2-4 UNLV, a 3-3 I-AA team, 1-5 Idaho, and 0-6 Utah State. Write me when you are good. Honestly, one more Kansas win of any kind shows you the trap door down in the polls Hawaii. No way they beat Washington to end their year.

I love this Kansas team, and I think you should too! Not only are they 5-0, but it's how they've done it. After winning by a combined score of 214-23 over some real easy opponents... they really showed how good they are by going on the road to grind out a win against a tough Kansas State team. It isn't quite apparent, still, but the Big 12 north puts the boys down south to shame... 5 teams up north may prove to be better than #2 in the south, I kid you not. Here's some numbers you are going to hear soon: this team hasn't won a conference title since 1968... and hasn't won one outright since 1930! Mark Mangino has this team primed to take it to the next level after showing glimmers the past few years. Don't forget, 2 years ago was their first bowl appearance in something like 20 years... and they also ended college football's 2nd longest losing streak in history to one opponent (Nebraska) that year. They are ready to take the next step. They have Nebraska and Missouri at home. Can you smell 12-0!?!

You know, maybe UConn could end up surprising us all the way I think Kansas will. But they have played ABSOLUTELY no one yet. At Virginia will tell us a lot next week. Then they've got that same tough conference schedule to go that everyone else seems to have, with Louisville, USF, Rutgers, Cincy, and WVU all still to come. I can't write much more because there's really not a lot of info to go on yet.

Kentucky drops quite a ways for a loss to a now-top-10 team... but if you look back... suddenly all those big wins so far this year... were nothing special. And next up, LSU, Florida, and Mississippi State, three of the better SEC teams still. If they win those, they go far, but something tells me Woodson's Heisman run goes up in smoke the next few weeks in the grueling SEC... even as he is quite a spectacular player. Feel free to prove me wrong, because until this week, I was quite high on Kentucky.

Gag, I'm putting Florida State above UF. And FSU hasn't done much to earn it yet. But they also haven't done much to "unearn" it either. The loss to Clemson was a tight one in the final minutes, and since then they've won all their games. Nothing spectacular... and I fully expect them to fall again soon enough... but people need to give this team more respect for being 4-1 at this point. With Wake, Miami, and Duke... they could move to 7-1 before brutality hits with @BC, @VTech, Maryland, and @UF to decimate... errr, complicate... their schedule/ACC/BCS hopes.

Oh Florida, why? Why did you have to snatch loss from the jaws of victory!?! I didn't give you much of a shot before tonight's game... but you came out and looked like the better team. Tim Tebow, you showed me you are the best player in the nation, bar-none, with your touch passes, vision, decision making, and leadership. But UF, you just kept keeping LSU in it, and luck did not go your way whatsoever. So that's it. I'm dropping you down in the rankings until you win some. I'm still heartbroken you would lose to stinking AUBURN last week. You are in my doghouse until you win something. You still look really good. But in Gainesville, the only thing good enough is an NC :-P. You had better beat FSU this year. :-)

No clue where to put USC. I'm really scared people will put them in the top 10 or 15, which just is inconceivable after losing at home to a winless Stanford team. Last week was judgment day for the Big East... this week its judgment day for the Pac 10, as USC and UCLA made the conference look p'ugly. For all the greatness of USC, they've sure managed to throw so much away the past few years, especially in losing to teams they shouldn't. I really thought they would come out hard this week..... and instead they lost... at home... to Stanford. Way to use that Jim Harbaugh bulletin board material to your best! If they beat Arizona next week (I'd be worried about that one), they can maybe get some confidence back going by then beating ND and parlaying that into a win at Oregon, starting the ball rolling through the rest of the schedule. Good golly what will I do if USC makes it back to the National Title Game??? :-( Who would have thought we'd have 2 of the 3 biggest upsets in college football history in 1 year!?!

Tennessee is back on the up side of their rollercoaster year. And even though Georgia is their first quality win... and Georgia themselves dive well out of the polls... the way Tennessee dominated says something. Don't forget, they stuck around on the road against Cal, even as their defense wasn't together yet. And they even had a shot in the 3rd quarter against Florida (Ok, Ok, UF manhandled Tennessee... and that was a great day for me, but still.... :-)). The Mississippi State game next week is a real gem, and if UT wins, they deserve to be up here for sure! If not, I'll just flip the Bulldogs into this slot instead! And, yes, it's the SEC; I see UT losing at least one more. But they aren't as awful as some people might think.

Auburn gets into the top 25, not really because they are suddenly so good... but because EVERYONE wants to lose the past couple weeks. 20 through 25 of the USA Today poll all dropped bad losses this week. Auburn's wins over Florida and Kansas State still look good (in my books, even given both teams lost yesterday), and Miss St and USF keep looking better for their losses. I think they'll steamroll Arkansas on the road and get some people's attention before going out and getting decked in Baton Rouge. But maybe they'll surprise... one way or the other!



That rounds out my first rendition of poll-age for the 2007 season. Look for a possible article during the week, spread picks just before the games, and then another poll next week!