Top 25 / Bowl Discussion (Nov 11)

Oh boy, another week, and more craziness.
This weekend wasn't obsurd with upsets, but it did continue to shake things up, and it started at the top. I can grin about dropping Boston College one week before they lost, and doing the same to Ohio State. But the point is, craziness abounds.

Take a look at this for just an idea of the craziness we're dealing with.

People seem to think that, because I champion the BCS, that I'm not interested in or scared of mass chaos.
The joke is on you, then. I love this!

And it may even be quietly boosting the bowls! This weekend stands out... it was like a weekend where there are tons of top-25 matchups... except there weren't (there were 2). But it seems like everyone ranked 26-45 was playing a top 25 team. There were so many intriguing matchups, commonly pitting a team that is a typical powerhouse (FSU, South Carolina) or fallen title contender themselves (Cincinnati, Illinois) against an equally interesting top 25'er.
And if this weekend was a lot of fun... it only sniffs at the flavor the bowls are taking on. Exciting potential matchups about! 10 teams from the SEC are bowl eligible (possibly 11 with a Vandy upset), and outside of playing Arkansas, I argue they are all very intriguing teams to meet up with (just in case you argue, Mississippi State beat Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn to make their bowl... there's LSU and Georgia up in the top 10... Auburn and Tennessee have been all over the map but filled with athletes... and Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina were all in the title hunt this year. Throw in an exciting mix of forgotten "duds" like Louisville, Wisconsin, and maybe even Nebraska paired with some teams really on fire after slow starts (NC State, Iowa, Utah), and we're looking at something awesome! Florida State might get Kentucky or Illinois or Cal or even Kansas still in a mid-tier bowl, for goodness sakes!
And we can't forget the kinds of stories a bowl for Indiana will bring.
There isn't enough room for all the interesting possibilities to come true. Some 6 win teams will miss bowl games, which'll be a major pity. No one from the SEC should be left out. Not even if they get 11. I see this being a tough year for small conference at-large births in bowls. It's going to be so exciting to see which teams can make this bubble. But if we were talking a 16 team playoff, we'd now be looking at almost having 2 WAC teams eligible, and 3 loss Tennessee knocking on the door. And there are still 2-3 weeks to go. Two loss teams have now made it to the doorstep of what would be an 8-team playoff format... while Hawaii sits well back. And, oh yeah, there's still 2-3 weeks left, and more teams (Big 12, SEC) WILL lose.


Oh man, so much to talk about!

But let's get to the new top-25 first...


1 Kansas 10-0 / win @ Oklahoma State || 0
2 LSU 9-1 / win vs Louisiana Tech || +2
3 Oregon 8-1 / OFF || 0
4 Oklahoma 9-1 / win vs Baylor || +2
5 West Virginia 8-1 / win vs Louisville || 0
6 Arizona State 9-1 / win @ UCLA || +1
7 Missouri 9-1 / win vs TAMU || +1
8 Ohio State 10-1 / loss vs Illinois || -6
9 Hawaii 10-0 / win vs Fresno State || 0
10 Georgia 8-2 / win vs Auburn || +3
11 Florida 7-3 / win @ South Carolina || +3
12 USC 8-2 / win @ California || +5
13 Virginia Tech 8-2 / win vs Florida State || -1
14 Boise State 9-1 / win @ Utah State || +5
15 Texas 9-2 / win vs Texas Tech || +5
16 Clemson 8-2 / win vs Wake Forest || +2
17 Tennessee 7-3 / win vs Arkansas || -1
18 Virginia 9-2 / win @ Miami || +5
19 Illinois 8-3 / win @ Ohio State || NR
20 Boston College 8-2 / loss @ Maryland || -10
21 Connecticut 8-2 / loss @ Cincinnati || -10
22 Wisconsin 8-3 / win vs Michigan || NR
23 Penn State 8-3 / win @ Temple || NR
24 Cincinnati 8-2 / win vs Connecticut || NR
25 Kentucky 7-3 / win @ Vanderbilt || -3

Others considered (in general order of closeness): Michigan, Mississippi State, South Florida, Auburn, California, Tulsa, UCF, Troy, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Florida State, Alabama, Rutgers, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Utah, Fresno State, Arkansas, Maryland, New Mexico, Air Force, BYU.
Fallen out: Michigan, Auburn, Florida State, Alabama


Discussion:
It's finally become very clear: the argument appears to have settled to 4 teams (well, 6, really). The first consideration is where the undefeated teams should go. It could be really ugly if Kansas wins out and still manages to miss the National Championship game. It would really confirm what I've started to believe: that there isn't so much as an east coast bias, as there is a bias against the Big 12. So much has been made of how Pac 10 teams get a raw deal. I do remember when USC didn't get the title game when Carson Palmer was there, even though they were on a run and looked stout. But they got what they earned; they lost to Cal. USC, meanwhile, has continued to hold a high position in the rankings, even the week after they lost to Stanford. I still think that was totally egregious. Likewise, until this week Cal has continued to hang around the rankings. Arizona State didn't get a lot of love... but they also hadn't played anyone. They still got up to #3 or 4, didn't they??? And Oregon is getting a lot discussion (and the USC game was on national tv). Meanwhile, undefeated Kansas keeps coming in behind LSU and Oregon, despite gaining one big win after another. Oklahoma and Missouri, with one loss each, also come in well behind LSU/Oregon.... which is pretty much quite fair... but still, no particular love. The biggest boost to the Big 12 continues to be Texas, who keeps moving up after winning poor games. But so many teams are falling, it's hard not to.
That will be an admittedly huge knock against the BCS. If it ends up that LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, and one of the 3 Big 12 teams win out... a 4 team playoff does look very nice this year.
That is this year, and this year only, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen.
So the real question comes down to comparing 1 loss teams. The week Kentucky beat LSU, the Oregon/LSU debate was a very interesting and important feeling one... and it just keeps going. It may well end up quite settled as they both get in. I really don't think Oklahoma, Missouri, or West Virginia have anything to say if Kansas falls out and LSU/Oregon hold out. Can you imagine, though, if Oregon's entire season falls around that goalline fumble!?! Their complete dominance of Michigan will hopefully be the shining element that keeps them in position 2... unless Kansas wins out. That will be the most painful, difficult decision of the year: Oregon or Kansas. It does look like Oklahoma has a shot to pass Oregon if they win out as well. I'm a huge Oklahoma fan, but you've gotta be kidding me. Then the Pac 10 negative-bias will have every bit of evidence it needs. But I bet/hope pollsters will do everything they have to to keep that from happening.

A couple interesting matchups are right up there near the top of possible:

1. LSU vs Oklahoma - how intriguing that after the greatest season of insanity in memorable history... we'd end up with two of the four teams we thought were five steps above every other... meeting up in the title game. LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and USC didn't live up to their purported abilities after being spectacular early in the season... and even if Oklahoma and LSU did end up in Baton Rouge... neither team has looked terribly superb even beyond their loss (see LSU, which should've lost to Alabama and Florida, and Oklahoma which has beaten quite a few weaker teams by less-than-brilliant margins (see Iowa State game in particular)). And, is it me, or does LSU PLAN to make national championship games only when they are in their back yard!?! And how intriguing it'd be an Oklahoma-LSU rematch 4 years after the last one in Baton Rouge!?!
2. Oregon vs Oklahoma - if you didn't read that article I gave up top of today's post... you should. It's hilarious when it considers the rematch of all rematches. Boy, what a battle it would be. And it would be pure enjoyment and just desserts to see constant replay of the Absurdity in Eugene-ity. Maybe the refs would end up suspended again! It'd be the fourth meeting in 4 years between Oregon and Oklahoma... rivalry!?! Of course Oklahoma has 2 wins and 1 non-concluded game in the 3 so far!
This one is also most interesting to me right now, because if Oklahoma DOES win out (still a TON of work to do), this is probably the most likely scenario in my mind. LSU still has Arkansas and a good SEC East team to get by. Oregon doesn't have a ton left. This one isn't just possible, it's quite likely!
Also humorous in that article: if Oregon doesn't make the national title game for whatever reason, and Michigan wins next week, the Rose Bowl HAS to take Michigan and Oregon in a rematch. That's both boring and intriguing!



If Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas wins out, then I believe they have to get the nod over West Virginia. UWV has been more decimated by the crumbling of the Big East through the season than by anything else. Louisville might not make a bowl, and their supposed breakout team, the team they lost to, has fallen on real tough times. Rutgers is very mercurial, and the OOC loss to Maryland is a tough bullet.
Hawaii, on the other hand, is starting to gain my respect. They keep beating tougher and tougher opponents. I'm finally starting to believe they might just make it through the finish line that is Washington.
Their SOS is still absurdly weak compared to any of the top teams. Even if they have no losses, they really can't compare to any of the one-loss teams. They have no really big wins, and have played so many poor teams that they really don't have a chance. They settle in the polls right now right near 2-loss Georgia, as well... and if Georgia wins out, I really have to give the Bulldogs the nod as well.
It's a pity that BCS teams wouldn't play Hawaii this year. Read this article by Matt Hayes (the greatest writer in sports) for more info. How prophetic!
But Hawaii does still have one big, gigantic, really impossible game... and one I expect them to lose. Boise State looks every bit last year's team as they continue to sweep through their schedule. Not often you get what'll probably be a top-15 game between two teams in a minor conference! And the big game was moved up to a 9:00 PM start to get people to watch! If I'm at someone's house with cable, I'll definitely watch (unless someone stumbles before then). The winner SHOULD make a BCS bowl... especially if Michigan beats Ohio State next week (likely opening up the top 16 rule). Hawaii fell a couple spots last week, but can only improve slowly in the computers... and Boise keeps moving up rapidly as teams around them fall away. A win over the opponent should open up a BCS game. More about that in a minute.


-- So much for the Big 12 North's resurrection. With 1 week left in conference play (plus a KSU game versus Fresno State)... only Missouri and Kansas are bowl eligible! First Nebraska flamed out... but now I'm left wondering where Colorado and Kansas State left. They were top teams. Now they are duds. Meanwhile the south SOMEHOW has 4 qualified teams and should add the 5th next week if Oklahoma State handles Baylor. Weird.

-- NC State looks GOOD. Yes, they ended up struggling to beat North Carolina... but the quick start they jumped out to (24-10 at halftime) and their resiliency to win continues to show me they aren't the team they were in the first half, which lost 5 out of 6. Of course, if we look back, those 5 losses aren't THAT bad (UCF (7-3, one of the best non-WAC small conf teams), Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and FSU). Their only win being a struggle versus Wofford definitely did make them look like one of the worst teams in the country early in October. But beating East Carolina was a huge shock. Virginia shouldn't feel quite so bad about their loss to NCSU a few weeks ago. I'm not sure if NC State can continue their roll versus Wake Forest next week.... but if they do... THEY WILL HAVE QUALIFIED FOR A BOWL!?! Wow! Talk about stunning! Look out for them next year! Georgia and NC State would be a stunning BCS title game next year, huh? (Don't count out Florida, though!).

-- This season continues to be the ultimate year of momentum. How many top teams have stumbled... then added a couple more losses immediately after? Boston College joins the large collection this week, which already includes South Florida, California, Louisville, Rutgers, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Texas, Colorado, Texas Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Purdue, UCLA, and Texas A&M. Each of those teams has lost at least 2 games directly after being ranked! I have never seen anything like this before. Add in teams like NC State and Utah which have turned around awful starts to be on fire... it has definitely been about stringing games!

-- UCF is in control of their own destiny once more! East Carolina has been a very perplexing team, earning rankings from me at one point this season, but then losing to 1-5 NC State a few weeks back and then Marshall this week. Weird. At Southern Methodist (1-9) should (better be) an easy win, then closing at home versus UTEP (4-6) should give them the edge. I hope so!

-- Kansas has 4 quality wins on the road (Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State). None of the wins look that good anymore, since the teams they have beaten have fallen on hard teams... but they were all big road wins. All they have left is what should be an easy Iowa State win (though I bet they struggle more than they should), then the big Missouri battle at home. If the stats say anything, they should roll into San Antonio going strong. A "road" game versus Oklahoma is a perfect final test to see if this "Cinderella" is for real. BTW, is it just me, or should Todd Reesing be a Heisman contender!?! 151.8 QB rating, 2647 yards, 26 td to only 4 int, and leading the team through another tough game. Yesterday was the first time I've gotten to see much of Okie State, but they continue to just stand up where all the others are folding.

-- Let's play chaos monger, and have a little fun. Let's see how ridiculous of a BCS Title game we could still get.
Based upon the projected BCS at tellshowbcs.com ...
# LSU #1 loses the SEC title game to Tennessee (Georgia loses to Kentucky) or Georgia (who lose to Georgia Tech the final week of the season).
# Oregon gets upset in one of their final three games (a rebounding Arizona team, Oregon State, and UCLA aren't exactly cupcakes).
# Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, Missouri DESTROYS Kansas, and then we have a 2 loss Big 12 champ, with Kansas outside with 1 loss.
# West Virginia loses to UConn or Cincy.
# Michigan beats Ohio State
# USC beats Arizona State
# The Atlantic winner (BC or Clemson) beats the Coastal winner (VT or UVa)
# Texas loses to TAMU

Quite a list of surprises that would need to come true, but few, if any, should be considered ridiculous or nearly impossible. What if this all comes together (aka, we have another week or two like back in October)?
Who is in the national championship game!?! Is it USC and Hawaii!?!?!?!? Or Kansas, even after getting destroyed? Or who!?!?!??!! Could be insanity! Ok, how about adding in USC losing to UCLA, Hawaii losing to Boise, and Missouri losing @KSU this week before beating Kansas (thus giving KU the north), then Kansas losing again to Oklahoma, who loses to OSU/TTech earlier on. Ummmmmm, what do we do!?! YUCK! Yeah, this probably won't happen. But if you are a fan of a top 15, you have to realize you still have a glimmer of hope. Don't forget the insanity that transpired in 2001, in which a Nebraska team that lost over Thanksgiving weekend made the National Championship game after every one of note (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Florida, Washington State, Louisville, BYU) lost following that game. Ohio State, Arizona State, and Georgia need to realize they still do have a shot... and even (gag) Hawaii.

-- Last, but not least, let's talk bowls. The enemies of the BCS may get a strange victory this year: the BCS may have a different problem than their typical one... they may end up short of quality at-large teams. Usually it's the argument over which high-caliber team should get the at-large (see: Texas/Cal issue in 2005). Or maybe the issue has been a small conference team struggling to get their fair shot at the BCS.
Neither of those will be issues this year!
The addition of the 5th BCS bowl served to open the door more to non-BCS conference teams (which worked well for Boise State) and make room for 1 or 2 more highly deserving teams (quieting forever the Texas/Cal issue)..... and, oh yeah, $$$$$$$$.
Well, it is starting to be a problem this year.

And then we meet the problem:
(from bcsfootball.org's official rules)
"No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks."
Breakdown time:
There are 6 automatic qualifying conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and ACC).
So we need 4 more teams to fill the 10 slots. Time for more breakdown (and a * means I'm predicting they will win the conference):
~ SEC should definitely get 2, whether or not LSU wins the title. The only way this can fail is a very obscure possibility LSU wins the title and Georgia and Florida fall out of the top 14, and Tennessee/Kentucky don't move in, or LSU freefalls to three straight losses and likewise happens. Or their qualifying team doesn't have 9 wins. All very unlikely.
Summary: SEC gets 2 (I'll go with Georgia* and LSU).
~ Big 12 will PROBABLY get 2. With 3 teams in the top 6, a ton would have to happen to have two slide out. Plus, Texas is hovering about 13th. Now at least two of the 3 teams at 3,4, and 6 will lose because Missouri and Kansas play and then the winner (barring a Missouri loss next week) plays Oklahoma. But still, a 2-loss Big 12 non-champion team should make the top 14... a one loss Kansas definitely would.
Summary: Big 12 gets 2 (I'll go with Kansas* and Oklahoma)
~ Pac 10 isn't quite as set as the Big 12/SEC, but should end up sweet barring a bad string of events. Oregon is a lock barring two more losses, while the winner of Arizona State-USC game should be on the inside as well (barring UCLA messing things up). Of course, beyond those three, there is nothing, so a collapse would knock them out.
Summary: Pac 10 has a good chance to get 12 (I'll go with Oregon* and USC)

Then things get ugly.
~ Michigan and Ohio State losing yesterday obliterate the Big 10's chances to enter 2 teams. Illinois is now their second highest team at 21. Michigan winning next week auto-qualifies them... but then OSU has two straight losses and might slide out of the top 14. Having them make it is no celebration for the BCS either, as they would be reeling. And a Michigan win opens up the non-BCS-conference rule to the top 16, likely. Oh, and if Michigan loses, they wouldn't even have the requisite 9 wins to make the BCS, so who cares what rank they end up with?
Summary: Big 10 could conceivably get 2, but will need some things to fall their way. (I'll take Ohio State*)
~ Big East doesn't look very good either. The West Virginia-UConn game may well decide the conference next week... but if UWV wins, Cincy can still knock it down into a three-way tie next week. Considering West Virginia is the only team in the conference above 23rd, the Big East needs to have UConn win vs WVU and then have West Virginia come back and beat Cincy to get 2. And avoid any further upsets.
Summary: Almost certainly 1 team (I take West Virginia*)
~ Last, but not least, the ACC. Definitely the most-muddled. A lot still to be worked out. Neither division winner has been settled yet. They have teams at (projected) 10 (VTech), 14 (Virginia), 15 (Clemson), and 16 (BC). But VTech still plays Virginia and Clemson still plays BC... and then the winners meet up. Plus, Clemson still has South Carolina on their schedule and BC and VTech still have Miami. ACC could qualify two easily... or could end up with a huge mess and no chance at 2 teams (which has been a common ending in the ACC recently). Am I right in realizing that NC STATE still has an outside shot at the Atlantic title and possible auto-BCS birth!?!?! (NOTE: no I'm not... they can end in a three way tie with BC and Clemson... but can't get in :-(). I think the whole world would ROFL if that one came to fruition, though! For the sake of confusion, let's consider the more chaotic possibility: only 1 team comes through the muck. It is mathematically down to 4 teams for the title, though (BC, Clemson, VTech, Uva)
Summary: 2 quite possible, or raw sewage quite possible. Going with 1 attm (I'll go with Clemson*)
~ Other: We've still only got 9. So the BCS may actually NEED Boise State/Hawaii!!! I see Hawaii is projected around 16 or 17 this week, with Boise one spot behind. You'd think that Hawaii would be higher... they beat a good Fresno State team yesterday. They have a lot of room to improve in the computers, and if teams keep losing (guaranteed to some degree by the conf title games), have to slowly make up some ground. Would Boise beating Hawaii be enough to keep them around 16 (if Michigan wins the Big 10, or possibly if Tennessee comes out of the SEC or someone strange works out of the ACC/Big East)? Also, note that if someone weird like NC State, Wake, or Cincy ended up winning a conference.... and a WAC team thereby made it... suddenly there'd be another slot eaten... and the best team from the Big East/ACC... or even a Pac 10/Big 12/SEC team... might miss out). But given the national interest Boise took last year, I don't think the folks down at the network would be terribly upset to have them win out. Especially if the alternative is something like a 3 loss ACC or Big East team. Worst case for all: Hawaii beats Boise, then loses to Washington. Also, it's a pity that Hawaii and Boise are in the same conference and have to play... or we could end up with TWO small-conferencers!
Summary: Quite a good shot at one (I'll go with Hawaii).


So we're looking at what could be a strange BCS.
The at-large spots in order of likelihood appear to go to:
SEC, Big 12, Pac 10, WAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10.
Of course, what if if the final 14 look like this:
5 SEC teams (3 currently in the top 14, 2 more down around 19 and 20)
3 Pac 10 teams (currently 3)
3 Big 12 teams (currently 4 in the top 14)
WVU, OSU, and the ACC winner.
Then we apparently couldn't have a fifth BCS game!!! (and this is even as we knock a Big 12 team out of the top 14, which is probably unlikely!)
A team must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 to make a BCS bowl... yet you also can't have three from a conference!
Perhaps they need to introduce some rare rules to allow a third team from a conference? Might be a tad more fair, in the end.


Anyways, finally I'll present two BCS scenarios... the one based upon the teams I listed in my summaries as my predicted 10... and then another set based upon carnage...

Predicted (and quite a good possibility) BCS:
National Title - Oregon vs Kansas
Rose Bowl - USC vs Ohio State (getting first pick because they lost Oregon... would still have pick of ASU/USC winner even if Kansas did pass Oregon in the standings).
Fiesta Bowl - LSU vs Hawaii (second pick after loss of Kansas, then final pick due to rotation order)
Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs Oklahoma (Georgia being auto, Oklahoma chosen by 1st rotation pick)
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs West Virginia (Clemson is the auto, UWV being the next to last choice out of the pool)
Might see Oklahoma and West Virginia flipped, if UWV won out and Oklahoma loses title game as I predicted. Fair enough. Some interesting games (even as USC-OSU doesn't look that exciting to me). And it looks like Oklahoma is surviving the lottery not to have to play the WAC team again! But if they win the Big 12 and LSU and Oregon win out...... uh-oh. They're almost certainly getting the WAC team AGAIN (unless none make it). I'm sure they can hype a Boise-OU rematch. Any self-respecting OU fan would HATE it, though. Talk about unfair!!! Just can't win that one!

Then, the carnage picks:
National Title game: Hawaii vs USC
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Kentucky vs Kansas
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Illinois
(if Ohio State bombed out of the top 14 and Illinois snuck in). Darn, not as disturbing as it could have been.



And for one more comparison, by Clark Evans, and probably most likely:
Ohio St-USC
Fiesta -- Kansas-Georgia
Sugar -- OU-Boise St
Orange -- Clemson-WV
Title -- LSU-Oregon

Okey doke, have a great week!